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                        '96 ELECTION SNAPSHOT
                               VOL.1 #10


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CONTENTS:
   CAMPAIGN '96: STATUS REPORT
   WHY POLITICIANS GO ON THE DON IMUS SHOW
   FREE CAMPAIGN AIR TIME?
   POLL ON CAMPAIGN PRESS COVERAGE
   PARTY IDENTIFICATION LESS IMPORTANT TO VOTERS TODAY
   DISCUSSING POTENTIAL VICE PRESIDENTIAL RUNNING MATES
   PEROT COULD HURT CLINTON MOST, LICHTMAN SAYS
   TELEVISION IS PREMIER MEDIUM FOR POLITICAL CANDIDATES
   THIRTY-THREE SENATE SEATS UP
   JOURNALISTIC JUXTAPOSITIONS
   PUNDIT PEARLS
   EDITORIAL EXCERPTS
   ONLY IN AMERICA
   DOLE URGES BUCHANAN NOT TO BOLT THE PARTY
   DOLE, CLINTON TO FOCUS ON GOVERNMENT IN PRIMARY RACE BREAK
   DOLE WINS CALIFORNIA, WASHINGTON AND NEVADA PRIMARIES
   QUAYLE'S FOUR-POINT STRATEGY FOR REPUBLICAN VICTORY
   PRIMARIES OFFER NO REAL CLUES TO U.S. GENERAL ELECTION
   UTAH CONGRESSIONAL SEATS BIGGER DRAW THAN PRESIDENTIAL RACE
   ALASKA ORDERED TO CHANGE FROM CLOSED TO OPEN STATE PRIMARY
   CAMPAIGN '96: NEW CANDIDATES
   CAMPAIGN '96: A PLACE FOR ROSS PEROT?
   CAMPAIGN '96: DOLE'S VP?
   WORLD PRESS:  U.S. ELECTIONS:  CLINTON VS. DOLE
   FREE OFFER FROM PUBLISHER
   =========================
   ---------------
   CAMPAIGN '96: STATUS REPORT

   JERRY MCKINNEY
   WASHINGTON

   The death of U.S. Commerce Secretary Ron Brown, who first made
his mark as a political operative, overshadowed other U.S.
political news this week.
   Many political observers believe Ron Brown more than anyone
else made it possible for Bill Clinton to win the presidency in
1992. Mr. Brown was elected head of the Democratic Party in 1989
just after the disastrous presidential campaign by Democrat
Michael Dukakis. There was general agreement the Democratic Party
faced hard times. The Republicans had held the White House
through three elections and had a popular president in office.
   While many Democrats were reconciled to a second bush term Ron
brown began working to do everything possible to prevent such a
thing from happening.
   James Carville was the chief political adviser for Mr.
Clinton's winning campaign. He says Mr. Brown already had
everything in place for the race and had the skills needed to
insure victory:
   "The party was in shambles after 1988 and he came and became
party chair, he raised more money than we'd ever raised before.
He had the whole apparatus ready for whoever the nominee was
going to be. The party had a spokesman that could articulate what
the party wanted, what our candidate wanted, what the candidates
were doing. I mean he was very good on television and he could
raise money. He was extremely instrumental in that, he was
extremely instrumental in bringing the party back."
   By the time Mr. Brown took over the party he was a veteran of
the political wars. He had worked in the failed presidential
campaigns of both Senator Edward Kennedy and civil rights leader
jesse Jackson. He also had been employed as a lobbyist by a major
Washington law firm.
   Mr. Brown was the first African American to lead a major U.S.
political party. His understanding of the problems faced by
minorities was instrumental in keeping black voters in the party
in the 1992 election.
   At one point in his career Mr. Brown was Washington
representative of the National Urban League, a moderate civil
rights group. Vernon Jordan is head of the Urban League and
explains how Mr. Brown was able to deal with race and politics:
   "Ron understood in 1992 that hands that picked cotton could
pick a president. And because he believed that and understood
that he went on and made that effort, he was successful in it. A
lot of people told him that he could not do it. That was the last
thing he wanted to hear, he went on and he did it and he was
successful and he transcended people's biases and prejudices by
his very own abilities and his charm and his wit and his
creativity and his imagination."
   After Mr. Clinton's successful campaign he named Ron brown to
the post of secretary of commerce. Mr. Brown had said privately
he wanted to head the State Department but he soon became one of
the most dedicated commerce secretaries in the nation's history.
   It is not known what role Mr. Brown might have had in Mr.
Clinton's reelection effort this year. Mr. Clinton has not yet
officially declared his candidacy and there is no formal campaign
organization. The commerce secretary, however, had been attending
informal campaign strategy meetings at the White House on a
regular basis.
   His absence will certainly be felt but most of what he put
together for the 1992 campaign is still in place. And Mr.
Clinton, himself, has won the support of many black Democrats.
   Mr. Brown's death came during a lull in the presidential
campaign. Senate majority leader Bob Dole, the certain Republican
nominee, is vacationing in Florida during a congressional recess.
   When he returns the focus of the campaign will be on
Washington with Mr. Dole working in the capitol and Mr. Clinton
in the White House.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   WHY POLITICIANS GO ON THE DON IMUS SHOW

   ANDREW J. BAROCH
   WASHINGTON

   When Don Imus (eye-miss), the host of a popular radio talk
show who often thinks it's funny and clever to insult his guests,
was recently invited to address a black-tie Washington, D.C.,
dinner for journalists and politicians, media analysts tried to
figure out how he had become so influential.
   at the annual Radio and Television Correspondents Dinner in
Washington late last month, with U.S. President Bill Clinton and
first lady Hillary Rodham Clinton sitting only a few feet away,
talk-show host Don Imus repeatedly joked about the president's
alleged extramarital affairs. Many in the audience said later
that they were shocked and embarrassed. A White House spokesman
said Mr. And Mrs. Clinton had been offended and urged a
television network filming the event not to broadcast it again.
   A number of journalists, in particular, were said to be
outraged, including ABC news correspondent Cokie Roberts. Once a
frequent guest on the Don Imus show, she has vowed she'll never
go on his program again.
   But some analysts wonder why the audience professed to be
astonished. Mr. Imus' "slash-and-burn" style of humor is
well-known to journalists and politicians, alike, says Larry
Sabato (sabb-uh-toe), professor of government at the University
of Virginia. He recalls that Mr. Clinton first appeared on the
Imus show during the 1992 U.S. presidential campaign and then
later in the early years of his administration:
   "There's some hypocrisy there, clearly. Clinton promoted Imus
when Imus was backing him [in 1992], and now he's unhappy to see
his own creation, a kind of frankenstein monster, turn on him."
   Mr. Sabato explains why a number of prominent politicians,
including Sen. Bob Dole, the Republican presidential hopeful,
have appeared on the Imus show:
   "There are a lot of people out there who simply don't trust
the mainstream media, who don't do the job that, frankly, good
citizens should and read respectable newspapers and news
magazines and try to get information through normal channels. So
you've got a large constituency there, and where there are
potential voters or actual voters, there go the politicians,
because they want to get those votes."
   There's another reason many politicians have few qualms about
appearing on trashy programs, says Larry Sabato:
   "The other reason they go on a show like that is there's no
penalty anymore for going on a show like that. A few years back,
certainly a decade ago, a candidate or an officeholder would be
severely criticized by many in the mainstream press for such a
fundamental breach of good taste. That's no longer the case.
Standards have fallen dramatically. And, of course, the talk
shows have assisted in the decline of those standards, but so
have the politicians who've gone on those shows and legitimized
them. They deserve some of what they're getting."
   Millions of Americans tune into talk radio stations, where
hosts generate interest with controversial interviews and
commentary and an invitation to listeners to call in with their
own opinions. Some well-known talk-show hosts include Michael
reagan, son of former President Ronald Reagan; conservative Rush
Limbaugh; and Howard stern, a raunchier version of Don Imus.
   Carol Nashe (nash). the executive director of the National
Association of Radio Talk Show Hosts, says:
   "That's the American public's choice. They can listen to Don
Imus, Howard Stern, Rush Limbaugh. That is what our country is
all about. It's this wonderful, big potpourri of marvelously
bright interesting people who can go to the left politically or
to the right politically or keep it at a very high level or drop
down to a much lower level."
   Not much can be done about radio talk show hosts who
consistently resort to bad taste, says Chuck Kelley of the U.S.
government's Federal Communications Commission, or FCC. Mr.
Kelley is the chief of the FCC division that regulates radio and
TV stations:
   "We have no exact prohibition against tastelessness. That
would probably be almost impossible to define. There are
prohibitions or rules that attempt to prohibit the broadcast of
indecent or obscene material. Usually, what we might be talking
about in cases like, perhaps, Mr. Imus, would get into the area
of indecent programming. It's usually defined as 'patently
offensive material or broadcasts in the area of sexual or
excretory acts or activities.'"
   Mr. Kelley says that acting on listeners' complaints about
indecent programming, the FCC has monitored Howard Stern's
program and ordered Mr. Stern to pay more than a million dollars
in fines. He says the FCC has not investigated the Imus show
because the agency only acts if it receives complaints from
listeners, and so far no one has complained.
   John Sheehan, executive director of the Center for Media and
Public Affairs, a non-partisan media watchdog group, concludes
that, as he puts it, "the radio or TV station is going to keep
these people on as long as the stations are making money." In his
words, "it's an economics game. But the American people do have
the vehicle to stop this stuff," says Mr. Sheehan, "it's the
on-off switch."
   ---------------

   ---------------
   FREE CAMPAIGN AIR TIME?

   NICK SIMEONE
   WASHINGTON

   Some well known television personalities are asking America's
broadcast networks to provide free air time to the presidential
candidates this fall. Supporters say this would give voters
direct and unmediated access to candidates instead of exposing
them to misleading campaign advertisements and what is often a
sound-bite approach to coverage.
   Paul Taylor quit his job at "The Washington Post" newspaper
because he says he felt the time was right to bring about changes
in the way the news media cover American presidential elections.
He and some well known news broadcasters, along with the former
chairmen of both the Republican and Democratic parties, are
asking the networks to give the candidates several minutes of
unfiltered airtime in the weeks before the November election.
   Under the proposal, the television networks would give free
air time to President Clinton and Senator Bob Dole, his presumed
Republican opponent, to speak directly to the voters. According
to Taylor:
   "Maybe Dole on a Tuesday would respond to what Clinton had to
say on a Monday, and because they would be talking to this vast
prime-time audience, it would be the most important thing they
did that day. It would be the biggest audience the reached that
day. Not only would you get that audience but it seems to me all
of the media coverage, all of the punditry, the newspapers and
everything else we do with our political system would sort of
spring from those two or three or five minute speeches rather
than a lot of news coverage in the last months of the campaign is
about, the artifice and the fakery, what's the photo-op that the
candidate went to today and what was his sort of hot-button issue
that he wanted to get his eight seconds on the network nightly
news."
   It's a change Mr. Taylor believes would improve the coverage
of the presidential race, by no longer forcing candidates to buy
expensive airtime which they often only use to attack their
opponents:
   "If you hold a conversation in 30 second ads, 30 seconds is
not long enough to make a firm enough case for who you are or
what you believe in. So it's no wonder that most 30 second spots
are attack spots, because 30 seconds is long enough to gouge the
other guy's eyes out."
   So far, only the Fox network has agreed to the idea. Other
broadcasters appear reluctant to give up the millions of dollars
in advertising revenue at stake. Mr. Taylor has had only limited
success in trying to persuade the networks that the airwaves do
in fact belong to the public:
   "The networks have pointed out to me in the most gentlemanly
way that they are not in the business to give away time, they are
in the business to sell time. I certainly understand that, and
I'm asking them to make a financial sacrifice. On the other hand,
the networks broadcast over the airwaves. The airwaves are not
owned by them. The airwaves are owned by the public. The airwaves
are like national parks. We give broadcasters licenses to
broadcast over the airwaves, but in return, we expect by a matter
of law certain public interest obligations."
   In the end, Mr. Taylor and his supporters say their plan would
reduce the corrosive impact of money on the campaign. CBS, NBC
and ABC have yet to say whether they will consider the idea.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   POLL ON CAMPAIGN PRESS COVERAGE

   MARILYN SILVEY
   WASHINGTON

   U.S. voters have cast an early ballot in the presidential
race, not on the presidency, but on the press.
   A new poll finds Americans believe the media to be fair and
unbiased sources of information during presidential campaigns,
yet voters believe the press has a negative impact on political
campaigns generally.
   That was the somewhat contradictory conclusion of a poll of
2000 registered voters commissioned by the Freedom Forum media
Studies Center and conducted by the Roper Center.
   Many of the respondents, 83 percent said that campaign
coverage leads candidates to perform for cameras and journalists
rather than focus on issues, while 77 percent said the media have
too much control in defining campaign issues.
   But Media Studies Center director Nancy Woodhull says that,
while voters may have misgivings about media coverage, the poll
showed that voters rely heavily on journalists for the
information they need to make a decisions:
   "If anything, they want more information, they want more
detailed information. And I think that the voters are giving the
media the information on what they need, and they're saying,
'don't allow people to just pose for the camera, or for the sound
bite or for the quick sentence. Get into the issues for us, don't
focus only on the front-runners, focus on everyone who's out
there who has an opinion.'"
   Of those polled, 72 percent said they were either 'very' or
'extremely' interested in the presidential race. Voters ages 18
to 29 expressed lower levels of interest, and said they're more
likely to rely on conversations, not the media, as their main
sources of campaign information.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   PARTY IDENTIFICATION LESS IMPORTANT TO VOTERS TODAY
   By Stuart Gorin

   If every American citizen belonged to one of the country's two
major political parties, remained loyal to that organization and
actually went to the voting polls, there wouldn't need to be an
election at all -- because the membership numbers would indicate
the winner in advance.
   But since none of this scenario is true, casting ballots is
still necessary. Political party loyalty, or a lack thereof, is
one of the major contributing factors.
   "Party identification is less important today than it was
several decades ago," according to political analyst William
Keefe, because "fewer persons now choose to identify with a
party." Keefe, a political scientist at the University of
Pittsburgh, said that while nearly 80 percent of the electorate
during the 1950s classified themselves as either Democrats or
Republicans (with the Democrats in the majority), since that time
the numbers have dropped about 10 percent.
   One result of this, he said, has been an increase in
"split-ticket" voting and victories in which voters choose
candidates who belong to different political parties to fill
various offices.
   Pointing out that "declining partisanship in the electorate is
a paramount fact of contemporary American politics," Keefe said
that at every level of government, candidate organizations rather
than party organizations dominate most campaigns for office.
   "Besides raising money for candidates, the parties count for
little today," says political news executive Lawrence Grossman.
In his view, they have "failed to adapt and have lost much of
their power and influence and most of their reason for being."
   Grossman lists changes in demographics as a major reason; as
populations migrated to the nation's suburbs, political
alignments dissolved and it became more difficult for the party
machines to exert the influence they did in the closely packed
cities.
   He also says the mass media has usurped the job that the
parties traditionally performed in reaching out to the voters,
and today, with the use of computers, candidates can reach out
directly on their own, even bypassing the parties.
   Adds another political analyst, James Thurber of American
University, the United States has a "weak party system" in which
the political party organization itself does not even control
candidate recruitment, unlike in many other democratic countries.
It is much more popular, he says, for a candidate to run
independent of the party in order to receive its nomination.
   But in this scenario, a party organization can remain neutral
during the primary process and then become actively involved in
the campaign against the rival party once the nominee is
determined.
   At the presidential level, in recent years candidates have
been evaluated by voters more in terms of their personal
characteristics than their party affiliation. One example is the
so-called "Reagan Democrats," middle-class conservatives who
identified themselves more with Republican Ronald Reagan's belief
and values than with their own party's candidates during the
1980s.
   But it should be pointed out that while these voters switched
sides for Reagan, they did not switch parties, and regaining
their loyalty is the challenge confronting future Republican
candidates.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   DISCUSSING POTENTIAL VICE PRESIDENTIAL RUNNING MATES

   Congressman John Kasich, chairman of the House Budget
Committee, would offer a "great balance" to Bob Dole as a
potential vice presidential running mate, in the view of
syndicated columnist Arianna Huffington.
   Kasich is "obviously steeped in the legislative battle and, at
the same time, with everything he says he makes it clear that the
solutions are not going to be found on the Hill alone,"
Huffington said in an interview with the American Political
Network's Hotline.
   She said that Kasich also is steeped in popular culture and
would appeal to the baby-boomers. "He would bring to the ticket a
whole generation of Americans that are very dissatisfied with
politics in general and very cynical about the whole process. He
radiates sincerity," Huffington said.
   Noting that Kasich has "grown a lot through the balanced
budget battle" in Congress, Huffington said "he now talks about
balancing the budget and all those issues much more in specific
terms about people's lives, rather than in terms of dollars and
cents and charts and graphs."
   In another Hotline interview on a potential Republican vice
presidential choice, media consultant Greg Stevens said that Ohio
Governor George Voinovich has "one of the most compelling records
of achievement anywhere -- compared to other governors
particularly."
   If Voinovich is the running mate, Stevens said, he "can
deliver Ohio," which will be a key state in the November
election. Also, he said, on television, Voinovich "comes across
as very sincere, very compelling. He can pull people into the
Republican column who will be on the fence."
   ---------------

   ---------------
   PEROT COULD HURT CLINTON MOST, LICHTMAN SAYS
   By David Pitts

   Contrary to conventional wisdom, if Ross Perot enters the
presidential race as the nominee of his Reform Party, he could
hurt President Clinton more than Senator Bob Dole, the likely
nominee of the Republican Party, according to Professor Allan
Lichtman, an American University professor who has conducted
extensive research on the impact of third party candidacies.
   Speaking at the U.S. Information Agency's Foreign Press Center
April 2, Lichtman said the conventional wisdom on the impact of a
Perot candidacy "ignores 150 years of American history."
Historically, third parties "are bad news for the party
controlling the White House," he said.
   Lichtman said that since 1840, third parties have garnered
more than five percent of the vote in nine presidential
elections. "Eight of those nine times, the White House lost," he
noted, including in 1992 when Perot took most votes away from
incumbent President George Bush.
   The reason is that third parties "reflect discontent" within
the population about administrations currently in office, and
generally direct their campaign against the incumbent president,
Lichtman said. He predicted that Perot would run again this year,
but that this time he will direct his "wicked one-liners against
Clinton rather than Dole."
   The 1996 primaries also yielded evidence that Perot would hurt
Clinton more than Dole in a general election campaign, Lichtman
explained. The primary returns showed that Dole did not do well
among independents. If Perot ran, it is likely many independents
would vote for him. In the absence of a Perot candidacy, those
votes are more likely to go to Clinton, Lichtman added.
   With regard to third parties in general, Lichtman explained
that historically they have not done well in winning elections in
the United States, more often affecting the outcome of the
election between the two major parties. There are two primary
reasons for this:
   -- The major American political parties "are not deeply rooted
in ideology, language or religion." They have tended to be "big
umbrellas" that house a wide range of views and issues, thus
decreasing the need for third parties.
   -- U.S. elections are based on "a winner-take-all system," not
proportional representation, which tends to encourage a greater
number of political parties.
   Many third parties have had a beneficial effect on the
American political system, whether or not they influenced the
results of the race between major parties, Lichtman said. "They
have played a vitally important role in promoting change in our
political system so that the two-party system does not stagnate,"
he remarked. "They force the major parties to respond."
   Third parties have not only encouraged the major parties to
deal with issues they previously might have ignored, they also
have introduced innovations to the political system, Lichtman
said. For example, political conventions at which parties
formally select their nominees for president and draw up their
party platforms were first introduced -- in the 1830s -- by a
third party, the anti-Mason Party, he added.
   In addition to his research on third parties, Lichtman also is
known for his 1990 book, "The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency,"
just revised and retitled "The Keys to the White House." The
book's theory is that there are a small number of key factors,
such as the state of the economy and foreign policy gains or
reversals, that determine the fate of an incumbent president. A
third political party on the ballot also is one of those factors,
Lichtman explained. Based on historical precedent as well as
other elements, it is a negative for an incumbent president, he
concluded.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   TELEVISION IS PREMIER MEDIUM FOR POLITICAL CANDIDATES
   By Mike Davis

   Highlighting the importance of television's role in the 1996
U.S. presidential campaign, two political experts point out that
the medium is the premier one through which a candidate makes
himself known.
   Dr. James Thurber, director of American University's Center
for Congressional and Presidential Studies, said in a recent U.S.
Information Agency Worldnet broadcast that in the United States,
70 percent of a candidate's campaign funds are spent on
television advertising. In many other countries, radio and
newspapers are the principal means of information exchange for an
election, he said.
   Noting that Americans exhibit a "natural skepticism" or
ambivalence toward the media, Karlyn Bowman of the American
Enterprise Institute said on the same program that they willingly
come to television to get most of their political information.
   However, Bowman added, Americans also are quick to criticize
the news media's power and the "steady stream of negativity" on
which it focuses during the election.
   Thurber said there is a misconception in the United States
that the news media conspires to unduly influence the minds of
the American people. Arguing against this belief, he said the
media is not monolithic and is fiercely competitive. Journalists
are guided by "professional norms" which prohibit most forms of
unethical behavior, he said, adding that they each battle to do
the best job covering a particular story, and this competition
"makes things somewhat independent and objective."
   Bowman agreed, explaining that "The media does not anoint a
particular candidate." Bowman also said that agenda-setting is
the extent of the media's power in American politics. Television
might cover a particular event or issue and not another, but it
does not seek to convince Americans to choose one candidate or
the other.
   Television can choose to focus on character or on issues,
Thurber said, noting that the medium will decide which issues are
important to Americans during the 1996 election. He predicted
that this year's focus will be on the "devolution of government,"
the initiative to transfer governmental power down to the state
level. This issue involves balancing the national budget and
cutting social welfare programs.
   Bowman noted that she believes the candidates' characters will
be much more decisive in this election than the issues that they
discuss. This year's "debate is staged within the center of the
political spectrum," she added. This minimizes the substantive
differences between candidates, making character and personality
extremely important.
   Bowman also made it clear that the two presumed presidential
candidates, Senator Dole and President Clinton, still have a
responsibility to govern and provide strong leadership during the
campaign. As the leader of the U.S. Senate, Dole is on somewhat
equal footing with the incumbent president, Bowman said, and the
two must work together and share the credit for all legislative
progress made during this election season.
   "We have a unique opportunity where people will be campaigning
from their offices...much of the time," Thurber pointed out. He
said both candidates will use paid television media coverage in
the form of political advertising, but their political offices
also will provide them with a great deal of free campaign air
time.
   Although both Bowman and Thurber agreed that television is the
dominant news medium affecting the American electoral process,
they acknowledge that radio and newspapers also play a
significant role. Numerous radio talk shows have appeared during
the last ten years, and National Public Radio has emerged as an
"elite phenomenon" that serves to inform the most politically
active Americans of breaking news stories. However, television's
dominance is likely to continue in the future, they said.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   THIRTY-THREE SENATE SEATS UP

   The 33 seats at stake in the U.S. Senate during the November
election will include 15 currently held by Democrats, 8 of whom
are retiring; and 18 by Republicans, 5 of whom are not seeking
re-election.
   The elections will be held in the following states:
   Alabama -- Three-term Democratic incumbent Howell Heflin, a
              member of the Judiciary Committee, is retiring.

   Alaska -- Republican Ted Stevens, chairman of the Rules and
             Administration Committee, is seeking a sixth term.

   Arkansas -- Three-term Democratic incumbent David Pryor, a
               member of the Finance Committee, is retiring.

   Colorado ---- One-term Republican incumbent Hank Brown, a
                 member of the Foreign Relations Committee, is 
                 retiring.

   Delaware -- Democrat Joseph Biden, ranking minority member of
               the Judiciary Committee, is seeking a fifth term.
   Georgia -- Four-term Democratic incumbent Sam Nunn, ranking
              minority member of the Armed Services Committee, 
              is retiring.

   Idaho -- Republican Larry Craig, a member of the Agriculture
            Committee, is seeking a second term.

   Illinois -- Two-term Democratic incumbent Paul Simon, a member
               of the Budget Committee, is retiring.

   Iowa -- Democrat Tom Harkin, a member of the Appropriations
           Committee, is seeking a third term.

   Kansas ---- Three-term Republican incumbent Nancy Kassebaum,
               chairman of the Labor and Human Resources Committee 
               and a member of the Foreign Relations Committee, is 
               retiring.

   Kentucky -- Republican Mitch McConnell, a member of the
               Appropriations Committee, is seeking a third 
               term.

   Louisiana ---- Four-term Democratic incumbent Bennett Johnston, 
                  ranking minority member of the Energy and Natural
                  Resources Committee, is retiring.

   Maine -- Three-term Republican incumbent William Cohen, a
            member of the Armed Services Committee, is retiring.

   Massachusetts -- Democrat John Kerry, a member of the Foreign
                    Relations Committee, is seeking a third term.

   Michigan -- Democrat Carl Levin, a member of the Armed
               Services Committee, is seeking a fourth term.

   Minnesota -- Democrat Paul Wellstone, a member of the Energy
                and Natural Resources Committee, is seeking a 
                second term.

   Mississippi -- Republican Thad Cochran, a member of the
                  Appropriations Committee, is seeking a fourth 
                  term.

   Montana -- Democrat Max Baucus, a member of the Finance
              Committee, is seeking a fourth term.

   Nebraska ---- Three-term Democratic incumbent James Exon, a
                 member of the Armed Services Committee, is 
                 retiring.

   New Hampshire -- Republican Robert Smith, a member of the
                    Armed Services Committee, is seeking a 
                    second term.

   New Jersey -- Three-term Democratic incumbent Bill Bradley, a
                 member of the Finance Committee, is retiring.

   New Mexico -- Republican Pete Domenici, chairman of the Budget
                 Committee, is seeking a fifth term.

   North Carolina -- Republican Jesse Helms, chairman of the
                     Foreign Relations Committee, is seeking 
                     a fifth term.

   Oklahoma -- Republican James Inhofe, a member of the Armed
               Services Committee, won a special election two 
               years ago to fill an unexpired vacancy and is 
               seeking his first full six-year term.

   Oregon ---- Five-term Republican incumbent Mark Hatfield,
               chairman of the Appropriations Committee, is 
               retiring.

   Rhode Island ---- Six-term Democratic incumbent Claiborne
                     Pell, ranking minority member of the Foreign 
                     Relations Committee, is retiring.

   South Carolina -- Republican Strom Thurmond, chairman of the
                     Armed Services Committee, is seeking an eighth t
                     erm at the age of 93.

   South Dakota -- Republican Larry Pressler, chairman of the
                   Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee, 
                   is seeking a fourth term.

   Tennessee -- Republican Fred Thompson, a member of the Foreign
                Relations Committee, won a special election two 
                years ago to fill an unexpired vacancy and is seeking 
                his first full term.

   Texas -- Republican Phil Gramm, a member of the Appropriations
            Committee, who dropped out of the presidential race in 
            February, is seeking a third term.

   Virginia -- Republican John Warner, a member of the Armed
               Services Committee, is seeking a fourth term.

   West Virginia -- Democrat John D. Rockefeller IV, ranking
                    minority member of the Veterans' Affairs 
                    Committee, is seeking a third term.

   Wyoming -- Three-term Republican incumbent Alan Simpson,
              chairman of the Veterans' Affairs Committee 
              and a member of the Foreign Relations Committee, 
              is retiring.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   JOURNALISTIC JUXTAPOSITIONS

   -- Washington Times writer Donald Lambro: "An analysis by The
Washington Times of the electoral count as it appears now shows
Mr. Dole ahead in at least 22 states with 197 electoral votes,
most of them in the South and West. Four other states with a
total of 44 electoral votes currently are leaning toward Mr.
Dole. Mr. Clinton is ahead in 14 states with 178 electoral votes,
including California, which has 54 votes, and a half-dozen
Northeastern states. Five states with 46 votes are leaning his
way....If Mr. Dole continues to retain his strength in the South
and West, and Mr. Clinton holds California and most of the
Northeast, the battle will be decided in the four big Midwestern
states, which have popular Republican governors."
   -- Boston Globe writer David Shribman: "Right now President
Clinton holds a commanding lead in public-opinion polls that
translates into a far bigger advantage -- perhaps as high as
4-to-1 -- in the Electoral College, the population-based state
tally that determines the eventual winner of the presidential
race. But professionals in both parties agree that the Clinton
lead will diminish in the next several months, and an examination
of the Electoral College map reveals an opening for Senate
Majority Leader Bob Dole in the fall, even if it isn't widely
recognized now in the spring."
   --- New York Times columnist William Safire: "The Dole
Doctrine was first sent forth as "the core interests of America"
in last spring's Foreign Policy magazine: 'preventing the
domination of Europe by a single power; maintaining a balance of
power in East Asia; promoting security and stability in our
hemisphere; preserving access to natural resources, especially in
the heartland of the Persian Gulf; strengthening international
free trade and expanding U.S. access to global markets; and
protecting American citizens and property overseas.' Interesting
that Dole places top priority on prevention of Russia's future
domination of Europe, a threat that both Bush and Clinton
strategists airily dismissed as gone with the Cold War. Dole's
world view goes directly to the issue that will face whoever sits
in the Oval Office in 1997: Should we enlarge NATO to include
Eastern Europe before resurgent Russian power makes that
impossible?"
   -- Baltimore Sun editorial writer Daniel Berger: "The
front-end loading of the primaries has given the Republican
victor, Senator Bob Dole, ample time to prepare his campaign
against President Clinton and to control the Republican National
Convention for that purpose. The issue before him is crystal
clear: Should he cater to the Republican faithful who supported
his more doctrinaire conservative opponents for the nomination,
or appeal to the broad center of American opinion? If he does the
first, he garners the enthusiasm of the true believers but risks
alienating the floating voters who dictate every November
outcome. If the second, he loses the donations and energies of
the best campaign workers and risks subversion by a third-party
campaign of Buchananites on the right."
   -- NBC correspondent Lisa Myers: "For now the strategy,
basically, is for the Dole campaign to try to reach out to the
Buchanan voters and ignore Buchanan....They want to send a
message in the convention that Bob Dole is independent of some of
the more extreme forces in his party and that he's a man of
tolerance. How they send that message depends on three variables
-- the choice of a vice president, how they treat Pat Buchanan
and whether they change the plank of the Republican platform on
abortion. If they choose a pro-choice vice president, then
Buchanan is probably going to get treated better. And they'll
leave the plank as is. But if they stick with a pro-life vice
president, they may stiff Buchanan and they may change the
plank."
   -- Washington Post writer David Broder: "Conventional wisdom
says foreign policy rarely counts for much in presidential
elections, but Dole has gotten a strong response to passages in
his stump speech in which he talks about the responsibilities of
world leadership -- and Clinton still has but a shaky hold on
that franchise."
   -- Washington Post writer Dan Balz: "The most difficult
question facing Buchanan is what he hopes to do with the support
he has received this year -- and then figure out the best
strategy for accomplishing it....Republicans who oppose
Buchanan's economic nationalism fear the consequences if he
succeeds in moving the party in that direction. But while the
rhetorical edge of his candidacy has been economics, the heart of
his support remains based on social issues, particularly
abortion. Buchanan has vowed to resist any effort by Dole to
select a vice presidential candidate who supports abortion rights
and has pledged to fight to keep the anti-abortion platform plank
intact."
   -- New York Times writer Adam Nagourney: "After months of
speculation that the presidential ballot could be crowded with
four or even five serious contenders, serious advisers to
President Clinton and Bob Dole have concluded that only Ross
Perot will succeed in mounting a viable national campaign. They
are planning for a less muddled -- though equally contentious --
three-person contest this fall. That judgment reflects their
independent conclusions that Patrick J. Buchanan will not run as
either a third-party or independent candidate in the general
election....While other candidates -- notably Ralph Nader, the
consumer advocate, and Lowell Weicker, the former Connecticut
governor -- are considering independent or third-party bids, it
is increasingly likely that without Mr. Buchanan on the scene,
only Mr. Perot has the intent, resources and support to become a
national force in the campaign ahead."
   -- USA Today columnist Walter Shapiro: "Just because Perot (or
Ralph Nader or Lowell Weicker) cannot win the White House, it is
wrong to sneer at these potential third-, fourth- and fifth-party
efforts as ego trips. American history has been forged by minor
parties with major messages: the anti-slavery movement; the
Prohibitionists; Socialists Eugene Debs and Norman Thomas, who
laid the groundwork for the New Deal; and, yes, Ross Perot in
1992, who turned the balanced budget into a national obsession."
   -- Wall Street Journal columnist Gerald Seib: "Some around
Senator Dole think he did best in the Republican primary season
when he stopped apologizing for having Washington experience and
started stressing its value....When Ross Perot complains this
fall that everybody in Washington sells out, the real Bob Dole
has an answer. He can say: 'I have lots of Senate colleagues who
cashed out and became rich lawyers and lobbyists. I stayed and
actually did the work.'"
   -- Baltimore Sun columnists Jack Germond and Jules Witcover:
"What voters want to know is as much as possible about the
persona of Bob Dole and, beyond that, where he would like to take
the country and what he would like to do in his four years in the
White House....There is an obvious precedent for Senator Dole to
study. Ronald Reagan didn't defeat the last Democratic president
because everyone agreed with him on every issue. He won because
voters credited him with strongly held beliefs and trusted him to
carry them out."
   ---------------

   ---------------
   PUNDIT PEARLS

   -- Political author Gerald Posner: "Given the campaign finance
laws, coupled with Perot's desire to see the Reform Party as a
major party within a generation, how can he afford not to be the
candidate? If he is on the ticket, either as the presidential or
vice presidential candidate, and accepts no federal financing,
there is no limit on his spending. If he does not run, he is
subject to the same restrictions as every American, a maximum
contribution to a political party of $20,000, and to each
candidate of $1,000."
   -- Economic Policy Institute political analyst Ruy Teixeira:
"What if Perot runs on the Reform Party ticket? Won't a three-way
race ensure that Clinton wins, even if he fails to improve on his
1992 performance? Not necessarily. First, recent polls don't show
Clinton gaining much of an advantage from a Perot candidacy.
Indeed, the most recent Gallup Poll shows the president actually
loses ground with the Texas billionaire in the race. That's
partly because Perot is now attracting a different kind of voter
than he did in 1992....The Dole campaign can be successful even
in a three-way race, provided it contains Democratic support
among downscale whites to its recent low levels: 40 percent in
1988 and 39 percent in both 1992 and 1994. To do this, all they
have to do is channel anxiety about living standards at the
incumbent and the party of government."
   -- Political observer Theo Lippman, Jr.: "Bob Dole's liability
is his title: senator. Americans seldom elect sitting senators
president. More sitting senators have been indicted and convicted
of felonies than have been elected president. The latter has
happened only twice in electoral history. The first one (Warren
Harding) died in his first term -- perhaps poisoned. The second
one (John F. Kennedy) was assassinated. Now there have been 13
ex-senators elected president. But all of them had left the
Senate, gotten a real job, before they were elected president."
   -- American Enterprise Institute analyst Norman Ornstein: "I
think Pat Buchanan is looking ahead to the year 2000. He wants to
stay as a Republican. Having won New Hampshire, he sees a
brighter future for himself in the Republican Party than he ever
would have before. And if there is a way in which he can stay as
a loyal Republican and then try and emerge as a much more viable
candidate for nomination in four years, that is what he would
prefer to do."
   -- Republican pollster Frank Luntz: "An independent Buchanan
candidacy would be dominated by self-described 'conservative
Republicans' that would otherwise end up in the Dole camp. These
are not swing voters. They are a key component of the Republican
majority, and a Buchanan third-party effort would clearly
fracture the Republican base and hand the election to Clinton.
Clinton holds such a commanding lead in the polls because his
base is more solid, not because it is bigger. He is attracting 80
percent of his 1992 vote, with or without a Buchanan or Perot
candidacy."
   -- Wisconsin University political analyst Charles Jones: "What
we've seen is what we'll get. Dole will work hard to produce
legislation he believes fits the Republican pitch. Bill Clinton
will sense where he agrees, then clearly outline where he
differs. But if either side games too much -- if Dole produces
legislation that Clinton vetoes -- it will be dangerous for
both."
  ---------------

   ---------------
   EDITORIAL EXCERPTS

   -- Baltimore Sun: "If President Clinton wins the election, Mr.
Buchanan would emerge as a major player in the Republican Party,
provided he remains within its fold. But if he were to mount a
treasonous third-party candidacy, what's left of the Dole
establishment would be sure to treat him as the enemy he is.
Moreover, why should Mr. Buchanan do his bit to subvert Bob Dole
when Ross Perot is doing it for him?"
   -- Des Moines (Iowa) Register: "If Dole is going to make a
race of it, he'll probably need more than the character issue.
Here's a suggestion: Address the resentments that Pat Buchanan
tapped into -- concerns of working Americans about stagnant or
falling wages amid the great accumulation of wealth by the few at
the top. It's the economy, stupid. Elections usually hinge on the
economy. And despite the economy's seemingly good health, a lot
of Americans don't see their lives getting better. Rather than
character, that may be a topic they'd prefer to hear the
candidates discuss."
   -- Christian Science Monitor: "As it appears today, the
election will be won or lost in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio,
Michigan and Illinois, assuming that Clinton carries California
and Dole wins Florida. Look for both to spend a lot of time in
those locations, and for those states' hot issues to move front
and center on the national agenda."
   -- Chicago Tribune: "Dole will be tempted to send up to the
White House a passel of bills that he knows Clinton won't sign
and to use that strategy as the foundation for a fall showdown.
Dole might take a peek at the gulf between Clinton's and (House
Speaker Newt) Gingrich's popularity numbers to see how well that
strategy has been working. Such a strategy would mean more of the
politics of gridlock, more of the politics of incessant
partisanship, more of the politics that Americans truly loathe.
It would all but guarantee that Clinton and Dole would have
competition in the fall campaign, probably from Ross Perot."
   -- New York Times: "Just when everyone thought there might be
a simple one-on-one between Mr. Dole and President Clinton, the
field is growing. Add to a potential Perot and/or Weicker
challenge a possible third-party insurgency from Pat Buchanan,
and suddenly Mr. Dole finds a whole host of people nipping at his
vote totals. His only consolation may be Ralph Nader, the
probable presidential nominee of California's Green Party. Mr.
Nader has the White House in a swivet because he will appeal
mainly to Democrats. These are reminders to both Mr. Clinton and
Mr. Dole that no matter how effectively candidates go about
securing the nomination, there are parts of the process beyond
their control."
   -- Washington Post: "Even as Mr. Buchanan continues to recede
as a candidate, Ross Perot reappears. He too is entitled, as only
a billionaire can be, but it isn't quite clear what he represents
any longer. He continues to complain that others won't grapple
with issues that he himself has become the world's living expert
at avoiding. Mr. Perot doesn't wear well. Our sense is that he
may not have nor deserve to have the impact this time around that
he had the last."
   ---------------

   ---------------
   ONLY IN AMERICA

   There is a shop in Washington, D.C. that's called "Made in
America," because of the nature of the merchandise that it sells.
New on the shelves is a red-white-and-blue ceramic coffee mug
that says "Re-elect Clinton-Gore '96." The Clinton-Gore campaign
-- active, even though the candidacy has not yet officially been
declared -- says the Democratic Party neither produced nor
sanctioned the coffee mugs. They are stamped "made in China."
   ---------------
 
  ---------------
   DOLE URGES BUCHANAN NOT TO BOLT THE PARTY

   DAVID SWAN
   SENATE

   U.S. Senate Republican leader and presidential candidate Bob
Dole is urging rival Pat Buchanan not to bolt the party. Mr. Dole
is using his base on Capitol Hill to begin a long campaign
against President Clinton.
   In the Capitol Hill version of a campaign rally, Republican
senators and House members met to show solidarity with the
candidate. But while his fellow lawmakers are behind him, Mr.
Dole must unify the party rank and file, especially those
supporting Pat Buchanan.
   The conservative, trade protectionist commentator is
considering a third-party presidential bid after running a
distant second in the Republican field. Mr. Dole called on his
opponent to stay within the fold and endorse him, as the other
failed candidates have done:
   "If he'll take a look at what we've been doing, then I believe
he'll fully understand that his future and our future are the
same, they're in this party. They're not outside somewhere.
They're in the party and we want to bring them all together."
   Mr. Buchanan is meeting with advisors to decide his next move.
Texas billionaire Ross Perot is also weighing an independent
campaign through his own so-called "Reform Party." Senator Dole
is trying to neutralize the threat by telling the voters he is
the real reformer:
   "We have been the party of change. We will be the party of
change. And had we had a president who would have signed, he, the
trouble with Clinton is he got mixed up. He signed the bad bills
and vetoed the good bills. But that won't happen in my
administration. I'll sign the good bills and veto the bad bills."
   The lawmakers hope to pass more of what they call "The
Contract With America" before the election. At Thursday's
meeting, House speaker Newt Gingrich declared this Republican-led
Congress cannot be called a do-nothing Congress.
   House democratic leader Dick Gephardt disagrees:
   "They're radical and incompetent. And the combination is
deadly for America's families."
   The House and Senate are still trying to finish this year's
federal budget and various other programs, with both parties
using the process to lay the groundwork for the November
election.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   DOLE, CLINTON TO FOCUS ON GOVERNMENT IN PRIMARY RACE BREAK
   By Stuart Gorin

   There is now a four-week breather in the primary election
process, so the major players in the U.S. presidential contests
-- President Clinton and Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole -- can
focus for a while on running the government.
   The next primary will be held in Pennsylvania April 23, but in
the meantime there is a lot of unfinished legislative business.
And since both Clinton and Dole have a history of consensus,
there could be a brief period of compromise.
   For Dole, the road thus far has been rocky, with tough
partisan challenges coming his way from a number of directions.
But his campaign team did not panic, not even after Dole lost the
first primary in New Hampshire, and now believes their candidate
is stronger for it as he faces the president. According to
Republican strategist Ken Khachigian, Dole's team is "ready to
take on the Clinton team."
   One of the things Dole did to recharge his batteries was to go
back to his roots. In the children's classic "The Wizard of Oz,"
Dorothy could not wait to get home to Aunt Em in her beloved
Kansas. Dole, while on the campaign trail, returned to his Kansas
home town of Russell and saw his 89-year-old Aunt Ethel.
   Large crowds turned out for his homecoming, and Dole noted
that "Anyone who wants to understand me must first understand
Russell." It was here that Dole returned after World War Two to
recuperate from the wounds that damaged his right arm, and the
citizens raised the money necessary to pay for medical costs.
   The visit came days before what would have been the next stop
on the primary trail, but earlier in the year Kansas decided to
save taxpayers' money and cancel this year's event since all of
its Republican convention delegates were going to go to Dole
anyway (and President Clinton has a lock on the Democratic
delegates).
   Clinton has yet to officially declare his candidacy for
reelection, and Ann Lewis, the deputy manager of his campaign,
hinted at the possibility that he may not do so, saying "We may
have passed the time for an announcement. We've got almost 2,000
delegates."
   Following Dole's March 26 victories out West, the Republican
National Committee (RNC) chairman, Haley Barbour, dropped his
neutrality and "declared Dole the nominee." Since Dole is nearly
at the limit of his campaign finance spending, Barbour said, the
RNC will "offset the costs of party fund-raisers" and "be focused
on everything we can do this spring and summer to help Bob Dole
beat Bill Clinton."
   Dole also received congratulations from Pat Buchanan, his
chief remaining rival for the Republican nomination, but the
conservative commentator also vowed to carry his message to the
party's national convention.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   DOLE WINS CALIFORNIA, WASHINGTON AND NEVADA PRIMARIES
   By David Pitts

   To the surprise of no one, Senator Robert Dole won the big
Western primaries March 26, and publicly stated for the first
time that he has clinched the nomination as the Republican
candidate for president of the United States.
   In California, Dole won 66 percent of the vote; Buchanan 19
percent; Forbes 8 percent; Keyes 4 percent; Alexander 2 percent.
In Nevada, Dole won 52 percent of the vote; Forbes 19 percent;
Buchanan 15 percent; Uncommitted 9 percent; Alexander 2 percent;
Gramm 1 percent; Keyes 1 percent. In Washington State, Dole won
63 percent of the vote; Buchanan 21 percent; Forbes 9 percent;
Keyes 5 percent; Gramm 1 percent; Alexander 1 percent.
   The wins in the West give Dole at least 1,200 delegates, well
above the 996 number needed to nominate at the Republican
National Convention this summer.
   In his victory speech in the nation's capital, Dole laid claim
to the Republican nomination even though, by most accounts, he
won more than enough delegates in the midwestern primaries last
week. "I am the Republican nominee," he remarked. "The battle for
the Republican nomination is over. The battle for America's
future is beginning."
   Dole also cited the major issues which he will make the basis
of his campaign leading up to the November election. "We're just
one election away," he said, from a balanced budget, cutting
taxes, replacing a "failed" welfare system, returning more power
to the states, and "restoring America's leadership role in the
world."
   CNN's exit polls continued to indicate that Dole has much work
ahead of him. In California, 47 percent of Republican voters said
they were not satisfied with the choice of candidates this year
and only 44 percent said Dole has new ideas. But a majority of
Republican voters -- 55 percent -- agreed with Dole's position
against affirmative action.
   General election polling continued to indicate that the Senate
majority leader is not as popular with California voters as
President Clinton. A Los Angeles Times poll published last week
shows Dole would lose to Clinton in the nation's largest state --
58 to 37 percent -- if the vote in the November election were
held today. Another poll published March 26 shows a wider gap of
20 percentage points.
   In addition, the Mason Dixon polling organization found half
of the Republican voters are not enthusiastic about Dole and half
do not believe he can defeat Clinton. California is important to
presidential candidates because it provides 54 electoral votes, a
larger number than any other state.
   Experts say Clinton's lead in the polls is due, in part, to an
improving situation in California's overall economy. The
unemployment rate in the state was 9.5 percent when Clinton took
office, and is now 7.7 percent. In 1992, the state lost 191,000
jobs, but in 1994 and 1995 it gained 200,000 new jobs.
   One possible threat to Clinton in California is consumer
advocate Ralph Nader, who announced March 24 on NBC's "Meet the
Press" that he may be on the ballot in the state in November as
the candidate of the Green Party, which was formed five years ago
to advocate greater environmental protection. The party also
takes a generally leftist stance on a number of other issues.
Current polls in California show that Nader could siphon off up
to 10 percent of the vote that might otherwise go to Clinton in
the general election. This could be significant if the race
between Dole and Clinton in the state tightens as the general
election campaign progresses.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   QUAYLE'S FOUR-POINT STRATEGY FOR REPUBLICAN VICTORY
 
  By following a four-point strategy, the Republican Party can
win back the White House, according to former Vice President Dan
Quayle. Writing in the Washington Times, Quayle urged
presidential candidate Bob Dole to:
   1) Realize that the first priority is not the running mate but
the agenda. He said Dole must have a "bold legislative agenda"
that includes a modified flat tax, a balanced budget, education
and welfare reform, a tough anti-crime stance, a call for a
coherent foreign policy and ballistic missile defense.
   2) Deal with Pat Buchanan politely but firmly. Dole should not
meet all of Buchanan's demands but should reach out to his
voters, Quayle said.
   3) Pick the vice presidential nominee at the national
convention in San Diego. Whoever looks attractive now may not in
August, the former vice president noted, adding that speculation
diverts attention from Dole's vision.
   4) Not get depressed over Ross Perot's potential candidacy.
Third parties, Quayle said, usually hurt incumbents more than
challengers. Also, this time Perot cannot run on the balanced
budget issue as he did four years ago.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   PRIMARIES OFFER NO REAL CLUES TO U.S. GENERAL ELECTION

   The presidential primary elections held throughout the United
States offer "no real clues" to the November general election,
according to political analyst Curtis Gans.
   Historically, said Gans, director of the Committee for the
Study of the American Electorate (CSAE), voter turnout in the
separate events "does not necessarily correlate. This is
especially true this year when there are so many unknowns." He
said these unknowns include the current budget battle between the
White House and Congress, the Whitewater investigation and U.S.
involvement in Bosnia.
   CSAE studied the results of 22 primaries and caucuses held
prior to March 12, Super Tuesday, and determined that a modest
increase in voter turnout over 1992 for the Republicans "was
likely due to Pat Buchanan's appeal to working class, more
normally Democratic voters, on the issues of economic
insecurity."
   However, Gans said, since Buchanan still only received 1.7
percent of the eligible vote, Bob Dole "need not pay unnecessary
homage to Buchanan to unify his party" or to fare well in
November.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   UTAH CONGRESSIONAL SEATS BIGGER DRAW THAN PRESIDENTIAL RACE

   The counting of ballots selecting delegates to Utah's state
political conventions in May was expected later in the week, but
residents who attended precinct caucuses in the state March 25
were paying more attention to congressional races than the
presidential campaign.
   On the Republican side, no straw poll of presidential
candidates was taken, and party officials will not keep records
of which one those state convention delegates are likely to
support. At least 15 percent of the votes garnered in any
congressional district are needed for at least one delegate vote.
   But eight Republicans want the party nomination to succeed
Congresswoman Enid Waldholtz, whose finances are under
investigation and who is not seeking reelection. Six other
Republicans want to challenge three-term Democratic Congressman
Bill Orton. Congressional candidates can only avoid a September
primary election if they can secure the support of 70 percent of
the state convention delegates.
   Utah Democrats attending the precinct caucuses had to choose
between President Clinton, two little-known candidates and
"uncommitted."
   ---------------

   ---------------
   ALASKA ORDERED TO CHANGE FROM CLOSED TO OPEN STATE PRIMARY

   Alaska's Republican Party had scheduled a closed primary
election next August 27 to select candidates for congressional
and state level positions, but the state Supreme Court has
ordered a return to an open primary nominating system.
   Under this system, voters will receive a ballot with all of
the candidates listed, regardless of party affiliation, and will
be able to mix and match candidates of different parties for
different offices.
   Conservative Republicans are said to favor the closed system
because it excludes the participation of more liberal Democrats
and independents.
   Pete Hallgren, chairman of the Alaska Republican Party, said
the party might drop out of the primary process altogether and
start nominating candidates at a state convention. Other
Republican leaders said the party would appeal the ruling to the
U.S. Supreme Court.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   CAMPAIGN '96: NEW CANDIDATES

   JIM MALONE
   WASHINGTON

   Senator Bob Dole's easy victory in Tuesday's California
primary has all but assured that he will be the Republican
party's candidate for president in 1996. That sets up what many
U.S. voters may view as a dull election contest between sEnator
Dole and President Bill Clinton. Speculation is mounting about
several possible alternatives to the Dole-Clinton matchup in
November.
   How about a six-way race for president? That might not sound
strange if you were talking about a parliamentary form of
democracy. But it would be unusual for the United States where
presidential elections are normally fought out by one Democrat
and one Republican, with the occasional independent candidate and
a host of others from minor parties.
   Most political analysts believe Texas billionaire Ross Perot
has already decided to make another run for the White House, even
though he denies it. But what about the possibility of president
Ralph Nader? How about President Pat Buchanan or president Lowell
Weicker? All of them are considering independent White House bids
as well.
   Norman Ornstein is a policy analyst with the American
Enterprise Institute here in Washington. He says a lack of voter
interest in the main contest between candidates Dole and Clinton
could spark lots of interest in other contenders getting into the
1996 presidential race:
   "But it also has to be remembered that Ross Perot may not be
the only independent or third party candidate in this race. We
may have several others. Lowell Weicker, the former governor and
senator from Connecticut is talking about running. (Consumer
advocate) Ralph Nader is already on the ballot on the Green Party
ticket in California. He may get there (on the ballot) in Oregon
and Washington (state) and possibly a few other states and if he
runs and decides to run vigorously, he could provide a
complication, maybe one just as significant for Bill Clinton."
   For the moment, Pat Buchanan seems to be leaning away from an
independent run for president. But that could change, depending
on how he is treated by Senator Dole and the Republican pArty at
the nominating convention in August. The U.S. Taxpayers Party,
for example, would love to have Mr. Buchanan as its presidential
nominee.
   Consumer advocate Ralph Nader is already running as the Green
Party candidate but he is likely to get on the ballot in only a
few states. Still, in a close race, he could draw important votes
away from President Clinton in a key state like California.
   Former Connecticut Governor Lowell Weicker has not yet
announced his plans but some of those who know him well predict
he may launch his own independent bid for the White House, giving
moderates and independent voters another option.
   But the king of the third party candidates remains Ross Perot
who says he would run again if his new reform party asked him to:
   "If the American people were satisfied with the performance of
the two parties, 62 percent of them would not want a new party.
Not having a budget for our country? And just letting days turn
into weeks and weeks turn into months? Closing the government
down, the train wrecks, so on and so forth? Laying people off and
declaring them nonessential but paying them and paying them
overtime when they come back? It is a combination of all these
things. It is not me, it is that the American people want their
government run in an orderly, rational way."
   Perot spokeswoman Sharon Holman says the Reform Party will
hold its own nominating convention in early September. She also
says the party will endorse candidates for the House and Senate
as well. As for Republican complaints that another Perot run for
the presidency would hurt Senator Dole, Ms. Holman says the new
Republican majority in Congress has failed to deliver on its
promises:
   "We do not like anything that is going to rock the status quo.
But again, when you have 62 percent of the American people who
are saying that the parties are not being responsive to them and
they want change. That is a majority and that can elect anybody
on the ticket."
   Senator Dole is already out on the campaign trail trying to
convince Perot voters his Republican party is the true Reform
Party. And while he is pleased with wrapping up the Republican
presidential nomination and now looks forward to the fall
campaign against President Clinton, he is clearly annoyed that
Mr. Perot is hinting at another run for the White House:
   "I would hope that Ross Perot, and I know him quite well,
understands that we are the reform party. The Republican party is
the reform party. Everything that he suggested, almost, and we
did not get it all done because of President Clinton. And then to
run because president has been the problem in getting reform does
not make a lot of sense to me."
   Many Republicans believe Mr. Perot's 1992 bid took votes away
from George Bush and helped elect Bill Clinton. Mr. Perot says he
drew equally from supporters of both Mr. Bush and Mr. Clinton.
   Political analyst Norman Ornstein cautions that the likelihood
of one of the independent candidates actually winning the
presidency is very remote given the strength of the traditional
two-party system in the United States. But a presidential race
with four, five or even six major candidates could produce huge
complications in the fall campaign and at the very least could be
the antidote to boredom that some members of the public and news
media seem to be demanding.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   CAMPAIGN '96: A PLACE FOR ROSS PEROT?

   TOM MAHONEY
   WASHINGTON

   Senate majority leader Bob Dole has officially declared
himself the presidential nominee of the Republican Party. Mr.
Dole easily defeated his only major Republican rival, commentator
Pat Buchanan, in three primaries held on Tuesday, including
delegate-rich California.
   Meanwhile, former independent presidential candidate Ross
Perot kicks off a nationwide speaking tour to get his new reform
party on the November election ballot. Earlier this week, the
Texas billionaire dismissed Senator Dole's appeal for him to
refrain from entering the presidential race as a third party
candidate. Mr. Perot says a third major political party in the
united states is an idea whose time has come.
   So will he or won't he? No, this isn't about whether Colin
Powell will accept an invitation to be Bob Dole's running mate.
It's the nagging question, denials aside, which fascinates
political reporters and pundits, while sparking added interest in
campaign '96. What's Ross Perot up to this election year and will
he again run for president?
   In recent interviews, Mr. Perot has said he would answer the
ultimate political call if members of his new reform party
beckoned. Perot Spokeswoman Sharon Holman says her boss is
working very hard to achieve his goal of getting the Reform Party
on the ballot in all 50 states:
   "We're busily working in every state where we legally can,
where we're not prevented by law from doing so. I think it's no
surprise that the existing parties are not looking forward to
having us there. They don't want anyone to disturb the status
quo. But when you see that 62-percent of the American people are
ready to support the idea of a third party, we think the time is
right for it."
   When it comes to a third party bid for president, Ms. Holman
says she doesn't think Mr. Perot has closed the door at all. She
emphasizes that this is not about him at this point:
   "If the party should come and draft him, then I know he would
give it very serious consideration. But it's very important to us
that when we have our national convention over labor day that we
are able to attract the very finest candidates that are out
there. So the field is wide open and we figure in April or May,
after we're on the ballot in many more states, that we'll begin
to attract their interest and the ball will really get rolling."
   But would prospective Reform Party candidates think twice
about getting involved because they think it's inevitable Ross
Perot will ultimately be the party faithful's choice for top spot
on the ticket? Sharon Holman doesn't think so:
   "Let me tell you it is far easier to do what he did in 1992
and run as an independent candidate rather than take the
tremendous amount of time and effort it takes to get the party
registered. For example, if you want to get the party on the
ballot in California, it requires 800,000 signatures. To get an
independent candidate on the ballot in California, it's
147-thousand.
   "In almost every case, the deadlines are much, much shorter
for the party than they are for an independent candidate. and
when you consider that truthfully, these rules, which are
different from state to state, are drawn up by Republicans and
Democrats and then administered by Republicans and Democrats, you
can understand why it's such a daunting task.
   "If this were all about Ross Perot running and not about
something that is going to be established for years to come, we
would certainly have chosen to do that the independent candidate
route"
   When it comes to candidates' personal qualities and values, as
well as their positions on a range of issues, Ms. Holman
emphasizes that those who run on the reform party ticket will
meet the highest levels of performance. For example, they'll have
to sign a pledge they will not engage in negative campaigning or
dirty tricks. she says they must also sign on to the reform party
principles, which include:
   "Setting the highest ethical standards for the White House and
Congress. No more trips and junkets and that sort of thing. We
also want a balanced budget amendment...We want a budget. This
year, we don't even have a budget. We want the line item veto.
We'd like to do real campaign reform, shorten the election cycle,
replace the electoral college with a popular vote [for
president].
   "Simple things like moving the vote to Saturdays and Sundays
so that no matter what your religion you can still get out and
vote instead of doing it at a time that's more difficult for
working people. We want real tax reform and, most importantly, we
want to require that any future tax increase must be approved by
the people in the next federal election in order to impose it."
   Senator Dole, who wants to keep his campaign to win the White
House focused on President Clinton, claims that today's
Republican Party is the rEform Party, in spirit and substance.
But Sharon Holman disputes that. She points out that Perot
supporters helped Republicans win control of Congress in 1994
because they were willing to give the GOP a chance to make a
difference:
   "Certainly they had all the issues there. But what we're
wanting [to get] is action. What we're not seeing is getting
these things nailed down. Yes, they have in many cases been
brought up for a vote. Sometimes, in the House, there are four
different bills so that it appears that you can vote and say you
voted for something. But the bottom line is we want the real
reforms and we want them enacted."
   Ms. Holman is looking forward to the party's national
political gathering, which she thinks will take place the first
week in September:
   "Our convention over labor day is going to be very different
from the existing parties' conventions. There will be no
delegates. Every person who has signed a petition or who has
registered as a member of the reform party is entitled to a vote.
   "Every person will have a voice. They will vote on a list of
nominees who have been able to gather 10-percent of the support
of the Reform Party members. They will elect that nominee for the
Reform Party."
   Sharon Holman says Ross Perot has worked tirelessly on
formation of the Reform Party because of his deep belief that the
nation's two major political parties have not been responsive to
the American people.
   A decision about a location for the Reform Party's national
convention hasn't been made. But Ms. Holman told us it won't be
here in Washington.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   CAMPAIGN '96: DOLE'S VP?

   JIM MALONE
   WASHINGTON

   With the Republican presidential nomination locked up, Senator
Bob Dole can turn his attention to choosing a vice-presidential
running mate. While there is no shortage of candidates for the
number two spot on the Republican ticket, the man most people
want appears to be un-available.
   The conventional political wisdom is the selection of a
running mate means relatively little in presidential campaigns.
But many analysts would make an exception in the case of retired
General Colin Powell. Public opinion polls show a dole-powell
ticket could defeat President Clinton.
   The problem is General Powell apparently has not changed his
position from last November, when he removed himself from the
1996 presidential race and said he was not interested in being
vice president either:
   "Because I believe I do have a bond of trust with the American
people and to offer myself as a candidate for president requires
a commitment and a passion to run the race and to succeed in the
quest. The kind of passion and the kind of commitment that I felt
everyday of my 35-years as a soldier. A passion and commitment
that despite my every effort, I do not yet have for political
life."
   In several recent interviews, General Powell has re-affirmed
his intention not to seek elective office this year. But, most
Republicans expect Senator Dole will at least ask him, figuring
it would be foolish to pass up a chance at convincing a genuine
American hero. Dole has said:
   "I have not talked with Colin Powell. It looks like he may
have given up. I obviously have made no choice. I have thought
about it. You do not travel around, you observe different people
that you see, different governors. We have a great group of
governors in the Republican Party."
   If not General Powell, the preference is one of several
highly-regarded Republican governors, especially those in the
middle west where the November election may be decided.
   Norman Ornstein is a senior policy analyst at the American
Enterprise institute in Washington. He predicts Senator Dole will
be looking for someone who can shore up the conservative base of
the Republican Party and who can help win a key state or two in
the November election:
   "Bob Dole wants to go to a convention where all of the forces
in his party including those more conservative than him are
united behind him. So he wants to probably pick a
vice-presidential nominee who is a little more conservative but
who is not threatening to moderates or the mainstream of the
country. And Bob Dole would like to pick somebody who would
provide strength in a state whose electoral votes Bill Clinton
desperately wants or needs to win. You put all of those things
together and you have got a handful of Republican governors who
match up very, very well for him.
   Republican governors who are considered top vice-presidential
prospects include John Engler of Michigan, George Voinovich of
Ohio, Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin, and Jim Edgar of Illinois.
   Many Republican activists believe John Engler might be the
best choice, he is a social conservative opposed to abortion who
has implemented a tough welfare reform program in Michigan. He
would have appeal to social conservatives, a key constituency
within the Republican party. He is also a governing example of
what Republicans want to do nationwide, transfer power from the
federal government to the individual states.
   Governor Engler believes he and the other Midwestern
Republican governors are beginning to set a trend for the rest of
the country:
   "And when you look at states like Michigan, we have had 21 tax
cuts in the last five years. Bill Clinton raised taxes in
Washington. We have been putting people on welfare back to work.
Bill Clinton is blocking through his vetoes welfare reform which
would help more families. So I think we are going to be able to
make a case that the states you are mentioning (in the middle
west), all have Republican governors and Republican legislatures.
Imagine what America would be like if we had a Republican
president and a Republican Congress so we can do all over America
what we have been doing in the Midwest."
   What is interesting about Senator Dole's choice of a running
mate is that he was once a vice-presidential candidate himself.
He has had firsthand experience in the strengths and weaknesses a
vice-presidential running mate can bring to a presidential
campaign.
   President Gerald Ford chose Senator Dole as his running mate
in the 1976 election campaign against Democrats Jimmy carter and
Walter Mondale. Mr. Ford narrowly lost that election, prompting
some Republicans to blame the defeat on Senator Dole's aggressive
campaign attacks against the Democrats. Mr. Ford, by the way,
thought Senator Dole was more of a help than a hindrance.
   Given Senator Dole's generally cautious political nature, he
will probably adhere to the first rule in selecting a
vice-presidential running mate which says pick someone who will
win you votes, not lose them.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   WORLD PRESS:  U.S. ELECTIONS:  CLINTON VS. DOLE

   DIANA MCCAFFREY
   WASHINGTON

   With Republican Senator Robert Dole's continuing gains over
his opponents in the primaries, including last week's wins in the
Midwest, foreign observers acknowledged the obvious--that the
senator will now be nominated as the Republican candidate for
president.  Once again, the volume of commentaries on the U.S.
presidential contest was low, perhaps overshadowed by interest in
the dramatic developements in Asia and the Middle East.  Those
analysts focusing on the elections concentrated on the issues and
challenges facing Senator Dole as he gears up for the national
campaign, as well as on what strategy the Democrats should or
would take to get President Clinton reelected in November.
   For Senator Dole, although he rallied after the first
primaries, writers contended that "the conservatives are still
far away from having found a consensus."  They pointed to the
"demon" and recently the "spoiler" candidacies of, respectively,
Pat Buchanan and Ross Perot as threats to Republican Party unity.
Munich's centrist Sueddeutsche Zeitung stressed, "It is not easy
for Bob Dole:  Buchanan continues to grumble and Ross Perot is
again trying to set up his own party.  And the White House is
following the spectacle in a benevolent manner."  A Chinese daily
emphasized:  "In the battle to defeat Clinton, Dole would face
enemies on both sides."  Editorialists held that the senator must
focus on crafting a consensus-building platform and that "the
choice of a running mate appears crucial" for him.  Several
European commentators suggested that the months until November
could also bring some "surprises" because, for the first time, a
majority leader of the Senate and an incumbent president are
fighting each other for the White House.  Indeed, a number of
pundits claimed the early stages of the presidential campaign
would start with the battle over the U.S. budget, as Congress and
the White House grapple over the issue.
   Analysts asserted that both parties are keenly aware of the
swell of support for the Buchanan message which tapped the
American voters' insecurity over economic issues.  They agreed
with financial Il Sole 24-Ore of Milan's assessment that "it is
possible...to identify the cornerstones of the Clinton-Dole
electoral confrontation.  The general direction is the
same...healing the country's economy."  London's liberal Guardian
concluded that the "Democratic policy agenda will focus the
insecurity argument--not on stopping people losing their last
jobs, but in helping them get the next."
   Several editorialists noted that President Clinton continues
to lead Senator Dole in opinion polls, but few were willing to
venture a prediction on who would win in November.  While most
dailies acknowledged that Senator Dole faces a strong challenger
in President Clinton, some contended that his chances for success
"may be stronger than is indicated by the latest polls....  The
senator is a man above all suspicions, almost cold, strengthened
by adversity."  One Indonesian paper weighed the impact of a
possible Republican win in November on the conduct of U.S.
foreign policy, expressing concern that "the Republicans have
developed their ideology of isolationism....  Some Asia-Pacific
and Middle Eastern countries are worried that the U.S. could
discard its security commitment to their regions."

   This survey is based on 29 reports from 13 countries, March
   16-25.

   EUROPE

   GERMANY:  "The Demon Buchanan In The Back"

   Washington correspondent Kurt Kister commented in centrist
Sueddeutsche Zeitung of Munich (3/21), "Bob Dole will now be
nominated as the Republican front runner in the presidential
elections, but the conservatives are still far away from having
found a consensus.  Dole's demon Buchanan is likely to continue
to tear apart the designated candidate....  Buchanan will also
make it easier for President Clinton's election campaign team to
do their job....  It is not easy for Bob Dole:  Buchanan
continues to grumble and Ross Perot is again trying to set up his
own party.  And the White House is following the spectacle in a
benevolent manner."

   "Risk By The Name Of Perot"

   Manfred Rowold pointed out in an editorial in right-of-center
Die Welt of Berlin (3/21), "For Bob Dole it was a day with good
and bad news:  With the majority of delegates for the Republican
Convention...he is very close to his aim to become the next
president, but a possible spoilsport reported back on the stage
and fed the nightmare of the Republicans:  Ross Perot....  Perot
would have no chance to win, but he likes to play the role of the
political principal with the result that he will again obstruct
the Republican presidential campaign....  For Dole the
presidential candidate, it is a question of life and death to
prevent Perot and his reform party from running.

   "What is less dangerous for Dole is the negative opinion trend
in a direct comparison with President Clinton, since opinion
polls do not show consideration for regional trends....  The
months until November could also bring some surprises, and this
is all the more true because for the first time, a majority
leader of the Senate and an incumbent president are fighting for
the White House."

   "Dole Will Be Republican Cadidate For President"

   Right-of-center Nordsee-Zeitung of Bremerhaven held (3/21),
"Bob Dole has reached the culmination of his political career: 
He will be the Republican candidate for the presidential
elections. But more should not be possible.  Even though the lead
of the incumbent has declined, there are many indications of his
re-election.  Dole will have a chance if he succeeds in
presenting an attractive vice presidential candidate.  His
desired partner, Colin Powell, however, declined.  We are now
anxious to see whether Dole will manage to come up with a
similarly convincing personality."

   BRITAIN:  "Insecurity On The Hustings:  It's Still The
              Economy, Stupid"

   The liberal Guardian (3/25) commented, "The president is
riding high in the polls and the economy does not seem likely to
go sour....  Yet there is no sign of self-satisfaction in the
administration....  Instead, the Democrats, led by Labor
Secretary Robert Reich, are engaged in fierce debate over how to
boost living standards and tackle job security....  It is the
threat of job loss, and the accompanying loss of health coverage
and other benefits, which grip public and politicians alike--and
set the agenda for the autumn election.... "Their message must be
that they offer a two-stage process:  a first term of employment
growth, economic reform and fiscal consolidation, a platform upon
which to build; and a second term of rising living standards and
reduced insecurity....
   "The Democratic policy agenda will focus the insecurity
argument not on stopping people losing their last jobs, but in
helping them get the next.  A job-creating economy, health care
reform, and education and retaining packages for displaced
workers are likely to form the core of the platform.  Last week's
White House budget proposals included substantial expansion of
retraining assistance.  For, as Clinton campaign guru James
Carville argues in a new book...education is the fault-line
splitting winners and losers.  Mr. Carville's book offers a
confident version of this New Democrat case, and a celebration of
the demise of Newt Gingrich's new-right Contract with America. 
And the name of the economic chapter of his book?  'It's still
the economy, stupid.'"

   "'Nowadays, Major Figures Do Not Run For The Presidency'"

   On BBC TV's Breakfast News (3/21), veteran U.S. correspondent
Charles Wheeler, who covered his first presidential election in
1968 and who has a documentary series on the country currently
running on BBC TV, gave his personal view of the United States:
"I think the opportunities there are far greater than they are in
this one--look at Colin Powell, for example....  You cannot
imagine that happening in Britain.  On the other hand, the gap
between the rich and the poor in America is far greater than in
any other industrialized country in the world."
   Asked about presidential elections over the years, Wheeler
said: "I think the quality of presidential candidates has gone
down enormously....  Nowadays, major figures do not run for the
presidency....  I do not think the quality of candidates is as
good as it should be for a country of that size."

   "Here Comes The Spoiler"

   On BBC TV's Breakfast News (3/20), Washington correspondent
Bill Turnbull said, "While one threat to Bob Dole, in the form of
Pat Buchanan, has been eliminated, another is just being born....
It was Ross Perot's candidacy in 1992 which experts believe cost
George Bush the presidency....  He can still give both parties
something to worry about--if he runs."

   "Burying The Tax And Spend Myth"

   The Guardian's economic editor Alex Brummer commented (3/20),
"Among the most noteworthy achievements of the Clinton
administration has been the inroads it has made in slashing the
U.S. budget deficit....  The November 1996 election will now
almost certainly be a contest between two moderates, Clinton and
Dole.  Senator Dole, by nature a fiscal compromiser, is already
talking about budget accommodation with the White House this
year, rather than more of the open warfare that has delayed the
presentation of this year's budget by six weeks.  If that can be
achieved, then it should be a force for stability in the
financial markets."

   FRANCE: "After Primaries, More Challenges Still Facing Dole"

   RTL Radio's correspondent Jerome Godefroy said (3/20), "The
old senator still has a lot of work.  He will have to take into
account the (votes) of Pat Buchanan's supporters.  Second source
of concern:  Ross Perot....  Also, there is Clinton."

   ITALY:  "Race With Clinton Still Open"

   Paolo Garimberti commented in left-leaning, influential La
Repubblica (3/21), "The early conclusion of the primary
season...and the unprecedented novelty of a president in office
running against the Senate majority leader make the November vote
totally unpredictable....  But two factors will be decisive.  The
first will be the economy....  The second will be the outcome of
the elections in a few key states, among which those where
yesterday's primaries were held (Illinois, Michigan, Ohio and
Wisconsin) and California....  By easily winning in the Midwest,
Bob Dole has assured himself the full support of four influential
governors, whose help will be very important during the
campaign....  Bob Dole has several aces up his sleeve which
indicate that caution should be exercised in taking the results
of the November vote for granted.  Clinton's lead margin may get
thinner as a result of the wearing legislative battle between the
White House and Congress, which is already underway.  But Ross
Perot, who is preparing to join the race at the last minute, may
deprive Bob Dole of some of those aces."

   "Dole's Chances May Be Stronger Than Polls Indicate"

   Ennio Caretto observed from Washington in centrist,
top-circulation Corriere della Sera (3/21), "The U.S. elections
will be a war between generations:  The generation of WWII, which
made America a superpower and restored its traditional values
after the economic depression; and the generation of
'baby-boomers,' pragmatic to the point of being cynical.  It will
be a war of personalities and principles....  Dole's chances may
be stronger than is indicated by the latest polls.  He is
effective from the point of view of image, always appearing in
public with his wife...who for now is leading over Hillary....
And the senator is a man above all suspicions, almost cold,
strengthened by adversity....  As for programs, Dole's goal is to
relaunch the historic Republicanism of Nixon and Eisenhower, to
revive the Reagan coalition, moving it more to the center.... The
choice of running mate appears crucial for Dole.... Repeating
Bush's mistake in 1992, i.e. backing the extreme right through
Pat Buchanan, would be fatal for Dole.  The senator needs a
running mate who is not only charismatic, but also moderate and
young."

   "Converging Candidacies?"

   New York correspondent Mario Platero remarked in financial Il
Sole 24-Ore (3/20), "It is possible...to identify the
cornerstones of the Clinton-Dole electoral confrontation.  The
general direction is the same...healing the country's economy....
The public also wants a simplification of the tax system, but
does not want it to favor only the wealthiest.  For this reason,
Clinton, having observed how well-received much of Buchanan's
populist campaign has been, will end up shifting in that
direction, trying to offer security to calm Americans' anxiety."

   RUSSIA:  "'Wooden' Dole Trails After 'Washington Cicero'"

   Under the headline above, Vladimir Kozlovsky wrote from New
York in reformist Segodnya (3/23), "The nightmare has come true: 
Dole has all but been crowned as the Republican contender for the
White House, and many scarcely imagine him beating the sleek
Clinton."

   "Buchanan The Killjoy"

   Nikolai Zimin noted in reformist Segodnya (3/21), "The
stubborn Buchanan slightly mars the merry mood of the Republican
leader by denying his victory the quality of a triumphant march,
and his party the image of a solid, conservative monolith in the
way of the Democratic president.  Besides, Buchanan's tenacity
threatens to turn the party convention into something as untoward
as a battlefield."

   "U.S. Leans Toward Reasonable Conservatism"

   Ilya Baranikas filed from New York in reformist, government
Rossiyskiye Vestia (3/16), "Political observers predict an early
victory for Robert Dole, as more and more Americans seem to be
leaning toward reasonable conservatism.  Nevertheless, since
there is an incumbent president, many believe Bill Clinton must
be given the chance to make use of his experience in the second
term."

   BELGIUM:  "Presidential Campaign And The Budget Issue"

   Independent Le Soir's Nathalie Mattheiem wrote (3/21), "Bob
Dole is no longer worried (about Buchanan); after 25 victories
since the beginning of the month, he returns to his role as
leader of the Senate and begins his campaign against Bill
Clinton.  The difficulty of the operation is obvious.  It is the
first time that a Senate leader is opposing an incumbent
president:  Both of them must cooperate, at least until November,
to lead the country.  The budget issue...shows the narrowness of
the maneuvering space....  Opposition on this issue is such that
the 1996 budget has not been adopted yet; the country functions
on continuing resolutions, periodically renewed since the crisis
that resulted in closing public institutions last winter.  That
did not prevent Bill Clinton from presenting with great ceremony
a 1997 budget for the fiscal year beginning in October, one month
before the presidential elections.  The project resembles to a
large extent the one which the Republicans rejected a few months
ago; the gesture is primarily political."

   "A War Hero On His Way to The White House"

   Conservative Het Laatste Nieuws commented (3/21), "Dole is and
remains a war hero who was left with a paralyzed arm from the (WW
II) adventure.  Although he has rarely talked about it, this
might become a major element in his struggle against Clinton who
dodged the draft for Vietnam in the Sixties.  Consequently,
Dole's partisans will try to present the duel as the struggle
between a 'hero' and a 'coward.'"

   SWITZERLAND:  "Clinton, Dole Resemble Each Other--Politically"

   Center-right Journal de Geneve carried an editorial by Antoine
Maurice (3/21), "After last Tuesday's primaries in the Mid West,
Senate majority leader Robert Dole remains the sole runner for
the Republican Party's presidential candidature.  He and
President Clinton are often said to resemble each other, not so
much personally as politically.  They are both subject to the
constraints, real or imagined, which weigh on government economic
programs.  Their margin for maneuver is therefore limited, and
the general atmosphere in the media and society generally
encourages pluralism.  But the two men are really very different.
Dole is an old hand in the Congress, able like Lyndon Johnson to
balance the interests of the turbulent personalities in his
party.  Above all, he is an inveterate pragmatist.  President
Clinton has shown less ability at wheeling and dealing, but has
shown an acute sense of public relations which has enabled him to
bounce back into public favor in the past two years, largely
thanks to his international policy."

   EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

   CHINA:  "Perot Comes Aboard And Makes Dole Fret"

   Washington correspondent Li Zhengxin commented (3/25) in
official, Communist Youth League China Youth Daily, "Clinton's
supporters would certainly be happy if Perot's reform party
enters the race because Perot would likely draw support away from
the Republican Party.  Perot's re-entry into presidential
politics is like a evil wind that makes Dole's supporters uneasy.
Dole said that it would make beating Clinton more difficult.  One
of the reasons that voters are urging Perot to run is that the
American people are tired of traditional two-party politics. They
think that no matter which party wins the White House, the
officials in power will neglect the business of governing the
nation.  U.S. voters want to break the back of politics as usual,
so many are pinning their hopes on a third party.  If Perot or
Buchanan join the ranks of independents running for president,
the loser would be the mainstream of the Republican Party.  In
the battle to defeat Clinton, Dole would face enemies on both
sides.  The campaign conditions in 1996 will be much harsher than
those of 1992."

   "Dole's Next Task, Choosing A Running Mate"

   The China Youth Daily said (3/21), "Robert Dole's string of
victories in the Republican primaries has made it inevitable that
he will be nominated at the party's convention in August.  Now
Dole's next task is to select a vice presidential candidate who
may win over more voters to the Republican ticket.
   "Many in the Republican Party believe that if General Powell
will agree to lend Dole a hand, the Republicans have a great
possibility of retaking the White House.  General Powell...is not
only highly esteemed by many in the Republican Party, but his
performance during the Gulf War was also praised by Democrats.
Nevertheless, the right wing of the Republican Party, represented
by Buchanan supporters, opposes Powell's selection as the party's
vice presidential candidate.
   "Although experts predict that a vice presidential race this
year would greatly aid Powell in a future quest to become the
nation's first black president, so far, Powell has shown no
interest in joining the Dole ticket.  His attitude has averted a
dispute within the Republican Party."


   INDONESIA:  "Worrisome Tendency To Isolationism"

   Teuku May Rudy observed in armed forces' Angkatan Bersenjata
(3/20), "The Republicans have developed their ideology of
isolationism....  It is worrisome that developments in Republican
conservatism could change U.S. foreign economic policy, as well
as confine U.S. security and political policy.  Some Asia-Pacific
and Middle Eastern countries are worried that the United States
could discard its security commitment to their regions.  Taiwan
and South Korea, for example, are worried about maneuvers by
China and North Korea, and Kuwait, Jordan and Saudi Arabia are
concerned about Iraq and Syria."

   PHILIPPINES:  "Clinton Should Revive 'Progressivism'
                  Tradition"

   Rene Bas wrote in the independent Manila Standard (3/20), "The
unhealthy effects of downsizing on American communities and
families have given progressivism a boost.  E.J. Dionne Jr...has
come out with a book titled They Only Look Dead....  Mr. Dionne
suggests that instead of adopting the conservative agenda,
President Clinton and the Democrats should work to revive the
progressive tradition in their party--if they want to regain
power in Congress and win public confidence."

   LATIN AMERICA

   ARGENTINA:  "Candidate Dole Wins, But Does Not Convince Much"

   Monica Flores Correa wrote in left-of-center Pagina 12 (3/21),
"Step by step.  This seems to be prudent Bob Dole's motto each
time he faces the confirmation of a victory which brings him
closer to the definite nomination to become presidential
candidate of the Republican Party.  According to his words after
his success in the industrial states of the Midwest, he will
declare himself the absolute winner after his victory in sunny
California, next week.  But while the senator from Kansas
discusses the national budget with Clinton and takes his time to
declare himself victorious over ultra-conservative Pat Buchanan,
the only competitor which remains in the primaries, those who
share his political views in the party have come up with the
urgent need to consolidate, or rather unify, the message with
which they must try to convince the electorate that it is
worthwhile changing their president.
   "This message, which must show a coincidence and harmony
between Republicans, in spite of disagreements on abortion and
arms control, will be aimed at seducing independent voters, a key
group to conservatives, particularly if terribly rich and
screechy Ross Perot relapses presenting himself as candidate
behind his presidential obsession....  While this group of
Republican leaders tries to put the message together, Pat
Buchanan, the great dissident of unification with his permanently
divisionist ideas, launched a test balloon...saying he could
volunteer to be vice president....  On their part, Democrats
would consider the possibility of Pat Buchanan's candidacy for
the vice presidency with illusion the same way they would be
terrified with Colin Powell's.
   "The combination of Bob Dole's weakness with Pat Buchanan's
extremism would be the ideal ticket to present Bill Clinton his
reelection on a silver platter.  Nevertheless, Republicans may be
divided but are not blind.  Through the experience in the last
election, they know that, in the long run, the only thing
individuals like Buchanan do with their divisionist rhetoric is
chase voters away."

   "Dole, Already Clinton's Rival"

   Marina Aizen wrote in leading Clarin (3/20), "Buchanan stopped
being the center of Dole's attacks, he now focuses his artillery
on Clinton, supported by the majority of the Republican Party
structure.  Yesterday, Clinton sent to Congress his budget
proposal for 1997, in an attempt to rekindle the budget balancing
issue, a banner he stole from the Republicans that has made him
more popular during his confrontations with Newt Gingrich's
followers....  It was not a coincidence that Clinton released his
budget proposal on the same day when Dole assured his
presidential nomination in the Republican primaries.  Last week,
the president signed the Burton-Helms law at the same time the
Florida primaries were taking place.  These coincidences will
become more and more frequent, and the Congress will be the main
scene of the electoral dispute."

   CHILE:  "World's Free From Extremist U.S. Candidate"

   Financial El Diario carried a piece by Leonidas Irarrazaval
Barros (3/20), "The U.S. electoral situation is now clear.  On
November 5, the battle will be between Bill and Bob, alias
William Jefferson Clinton and Robert Dole, respectively.  Pat
(Buchanan) will not be there except as reflected by the numerous
voters who will abstain.  For now, we can celebrate that the
world has freed itself from the possibility that an extremist
might become the candidate."

   URUGUAY:  "The Perot Factor"

   Business-economic El Observador commented (3/21), "One thing
is clear:  From now on until November anything can happen and
it's clear that Perot is not the 'favorite'; but his ability to
capture the Republican vote can decide the election, as in 1992."
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