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                        '96 ELECTION SNAPSHOT
                               VOL.1 #9


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CONTENTS:
   PEROT SAYS HE WILL DO WHAT IT TAKE FOR HIS PARTY TO COMPETE
   CLINTON CALLS FOR A CORPORATE RESPONSIBILITY SUMMIT
   CLINTON OHIO CAMPAIGN TRIP
   CLINTON SATURDAY RADIO ADDRESS
   REPUBLICANS SATURDAY RADIO ADDRESS
   DOLE MAKES CAMPAIGN STOP AT SAN QUENTIN
   CALIFORNIA VOTERS LOOK AT IMMIGRATION
   THE PRESIDENTIAL SENATOR
   REPUBLICANS IN CONGRESS PUSH MISSILE DEFENSE NETWORK
   CAMPAIGN '96 STATUS REPORT
   CALIFORNIA PRIMARY REDUCED TO IRRELEVANCY BY DOLE SWEEPS
   CLINTON TESTING STANDARD STUMP SPEECH FOR FALL CAMPAIGN
   POLL SHOWS MAJORITY BELIEVE CLINTON DESERVES REELECTION
   FROM UNIT RULE TO PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION FOR DEMOCRATS
   EMILY'S LIST LAUNCHES GET-OUT-THE-VOTE EFFORT FOR WOMEN
   PUNDITS' PEARLS
   CAMPAIGN '96: THE GOP'S PRIMARY CHALLENGE
   CAMPAIGN '96: PEROT CHALLENGE TO DOLE CAMPAIGN?
   DOLE WINS MIDWEST PRIMARIES; LOCKS UP REPUBLICAN NOMINATION
   U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS ARE REALLY BATTLES FOR THE CENTER
   DOLE CONCERNED ABOUT CHALLENGE FROM ROSS PEROT
   GROUP SEEKS TO RID RELIGIOUS ORGANIZATIONS OF TAX FREE EXEMPTIONS
   HOW DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES ARE INFLUENCING THE ELECTORAL PROCESS
   U.S. OPINION ROUNDUP: IMMIGRATION REFORM
   TOCQUEVILLE'S MODEL: RELEVANT ANEW?
   =========================
   ---------------
   PEROT SAYS HE WILL DO WHAT IT TAKE FOR HIS PARTY TO COMPETE

   JIM MALONE
   WASHINGTON

   Former U.S. presidential candidate Ross Perot says he will do
whatever he has to, to help his new reform party compete in this
year's presidential election. Mr. Perot did not announce his
candidacy for the White House but he did not rule it out either.
   Ross Perot appeared on one of his favorite television
programs, the Larry king show on CNN, the same program on which
he announced his presidential candidacy in 1992.
   But when pressed about a possible White House bid this year,
Mr. Perot was evasive. He kept saying that his new reform party
effort was not about him personally. But he also refused to rule
out another run for president, saying he will do whatever he has
to, to help his new party gain favor with the American people.
   Mr. Perot says his Reform Party will eventually get on all 50
state ballots for the November election. And he says the party
will nominate a presidential candidate in early September who
will appeal to Americans disenchanted with political gridlock in
Washington:
   "If the American people were satisfied with the performance of
the two parties, sixty-two percent of them would not want a new
party. Not having a budget for our country? And just letting days
turn into weeks and weeks turn into months? Closing the
government down, the train wrecks, so on and so forth? Laying
people off and declaring them nonessential but paying them and
paying them overtime when they come back? It is a combination of
all these things. It is not me, it is that the American people
want their government run in an orderly, rational way."
   Mr. Perot was critical of both major parties. He said the big
government policies of the Democrats were not working and says
the Republican contract with America should be a bipartisan
effort to achieve real solutions to problems like Medicare,
Social Security and welfare.
   Another Perot bid for the White House sends shudders through a
lot of Republicans who believe that his candidacy would draw
votes away from Senator Bob Dole (the presumed Republican Party
nominee) and could help re-elect President Clinton. These
Republicans insist that Mr. Perot helped elect Bill Clinton in
1992 because he took votes away from George Bush. Mr. Perot
dismissed that contention as Republican propaganda Friday,
insisting that he drew support in equal numbers from both
President Bush and Mr. Clinton.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   CLINTON CALLS FOR A CORPORATE RESPONSIBILITY SUMMIT

   DEBORAH TATE
   CINCINNATI, OH.

   President Clinton has announced that he will invite top
business executives to Washington in the coming weeks to take
part in a White House conference on corporate responsibility. The
conference is to explore ways to help American workers adjust to
a changing global economy. Mr. Clinton made his announcement
while on a campaign-style visit to the U.S. city of Cincinnati,
Ohio.
   With many U.S. businesses laying off workers as they try to
streamline their operations, President Clinton believes companies
can make an effort to help their employees deal with such
downsizing.
   In an address at Xavier University in Cincinnati Saturday, Mr.
Clinton said companies' support for employees is good for
business:
   "What is the role of business in this new era? It should first
and foremost do well, make money so you can hire people and
contribute. But it should whenever possible do well in a way that
strengthens families and grows the middle class in a way that
develops a loyal, productive workforce for the business and keeps
the middle class alive so we can support these businesses by
buying the goods and services they produce."
   Mr. Clinton offered his own proposals to businesses,
suggesting they offer employees support for child care, good
health care and pension benefits, and job training and
educational opportunities.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   CLINTON OHIO CAMPAIGN TRIP

   DEBORAH TATE
   COLUMBUS, OHIO

   President Clinton has wrapped up a day-long trip to Ohio, a
key state in his bid for re-election this year. At a stop in
Columbus, Mr. Clinton defended his vetoes of key legislative
items passed by the Republican-led Congress. Mr. Clinton's veto
record has become a campaign theme for Republicans this election
year.
   Congressional Republicans have dubbed Bill Clinton 'veto bill'
as they attempt to portray the president as an obstructionist for
vetoing Republican-sponsored legislation on the budget, welfare
reform, and other issues.
   Mr. Clinton defended his use of the veto in a speech to state
Democrats in Columbus Saturday night.
   But as he and congressional leaders try to reach a balanced
budget agreement, Mr. Clinton says he does not want to fight with
Republicans:
   "Yeah, I vetoed that budget (cheers), and I'd do it again. But
I don't like it. I'd rather sign the right kind of balanced
budget that will lower interest rates, balance the budget, grow
the economy and give your kids a future."
   Mr. Clinton has vetoed measures that he believes cut too
deeply into his priority social programs. The strategy has so far
helped him score political points.
   The president needs the support of Ohio, with its 21 electoral
votes, if he is to be re-elected this year.
   Another state key to the president's political future is New
York. Mr. Clinton travels there Wednesday to address a national
governor's conference on education.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   CLINTON SATURDAY RADIO ADDRESS

   DEBORAH TATE
   WHITE HOUSE

   President Clinton is calling on U.S. businesses to take
responsibility for their employees. At a time when many Americans
are concerned about their future in a rapidly changing global
economy, Mr. Clinton is calling on corporations to do their part
to help workers adjust. Mr. Clinton made his remarks in his
weekly radio address.
   President Clinton says there are many ways that businesses can
be good 'corporate citizens', as he puts it.
   He says businesses can offer flexible work schedules and child
care support to help ease the stress on working parents. He
suggests that companies give employees health care and pension
benefits.
   These are proposals Mr. Clinton often discusses as he
campaigns for re-election.
   But in his radio address, he is careful not to alienate the
business community, saying he realizes the responsibility of any
business is to make a profit. The president acknowledges that
employee layoffs are sometimes necessary for the long-term health
of the company.
   He suggests that in times of corporate downsizing, companies
provide adequate notice to workers so they can find new
employment.
   He also suggests that firms invest in their employees,
offering them education and training opportunities to allow them
to better compete in a global economy.
   Mr. Clinton will be saying more about these proposals at a
campaign-style appearance in the state of Ohio later Saturday.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   REPUBLICANS SATURDAY RADIO ADDRESS

   DEBORAH TATE
   WHITE HOUSE

   Republican lawmakers are criticizing President Clinton for his
opposition to proposals for a national defense against missile
attacks. In the Republicans' weekly radio address Saturday
senator Thad Cochran of Mississippi argued that a missile defense
system is critical to the nation's security.
   Two days after Republican majority leader Bob Dole introduced
legislation calling for deployment of a national missile defense
system by the year 2003, Senator Cochran is calling on President
Clinton to drop his opposition to such a plan.
   Mr. Clinton has long argued that a missile defense is not
needed.
   But Senator Cochran disagrees:
   "If ballistic missiles were fired at the United States today,
our military, as powerful as it is, would be unable to knock a
single one out of the sky. Our nation is vulnerable to missile
attack, not because our military does not want to defend America,
and not because the technology to do so does not exist. Our
nation is vulnerable because President Clinton refuses to
acknowledge the threat, and allow the defensive systems to be
built that would protect America."
   Mr. Dole, who is expected be Mr. Clinton's Republican
challenger in November's presidential elections, has also
attacked the president's position, saying he is soft on defense.
Mr. Dole will likely use the issue as part of his campaign theme.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   DOLE MAKES CAMPAIGN STOP AT SAN QUENTIN

   VICTOR BEATTIE
   WASHINGTON

   Senator Bob Dole, while visiting the infamous San Quentin
prison in California Saturday, criticized President Clinton for
not being tough enough on criminals. The White House quickly
challenged Senator Dole, insisting the president is determined to
dramatically curtail the legal rights of death-row inmates.
   Senator Dole, campaigning ahead of California's primary
election on Tuesday, toured the San Quentin gas chamber and saw
several of the more than 400 death-row inmates to underscore his
support for swifter justice for violent criminals. He backs
so-called habeas corpus reform, curtailing the right of death-row
inmates to appeal their convictions.
   In what is likely to become a major campaign issue, Senator
Dole accused President Clinton of blocking congressional efforts
to enact such reforms:
   "We're not punishing the criminals. We punish the victims. We
punish their families. They agonize year after year, waiting for
justice. Justice never seems to come. That will change in a Dole
administration."
   The White House quickly responded, saying the president has
proposed such reform in the past and has only threatened to veto
it now because the measure is attached to other legislation he
opposes.
   Senator Dole also chastised President Clinton for appointing a
federal judge who recently freed an alleged drug dealer from jail
by ruling as invalid, a police search that turned up four million
dollars of illegal drugs stashed in the woman's car. The
president has criticized the ruling. Senator Dole says the judge
should resign or be impeached.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   CALIFORNIA VOTERS LOOK AT IMMIGRATION

   GREG FLAKUS
   LOS ANGELES

   Nowhere in the United States is the question of illegal
immigration as hot an issue as it is in California, which holds
its presidential primary on Tuesday (March 26). Although Senate
majority leader Bob Dole already has enough delegates to cinch
the Republican nomination, challenger Pat Buchanan is campaigning
hard in California with an emphasis on drastic proposals to stem
the flow of illegals into the United States.
   The battle over immigration strikes the very soul of the state
of California, which was under both the Spanish flag and later
the Mexican flag before it became part of the United States in
1850. Most immigrants entering California come from Mexico, but
the golden state has also attracted large numbers of people from
Asia. Nearly one out of every four Californians is foreign-born,
which is by far the highest proportion in the United States.
   The debate over immigration is sometimes portrayed as white
Anglos versus brown-skinned minorities, but, in fact, it is more
complicated than that. While a large percentage of
Mexican-Americans have opposed drastic proposals to stop illegal
entrants, there are others who see such proposals as necessary.
Jesse Laguna, who lives only four blocks from the border in the
town of San Ysidro, is one Mexican-American who is fed up with
illegal immigrants invading his community:
   "Where we are situated here by the Mexican border, there is a
lot of illegals coming in from Mexico and a lot of them look like
me, like us, and they speak the same language and so they can
hide easier."
   Mr. Laguna is a Republican who wholeheartedly supports the
presidential aspirations of Pat Buchanan. He says Senator Bob
Dole's support for the North American Free Trade Agreement,
NAFTA, and his failure to push for stronger measures against
illegal immigration amount to a betrayal. Mr. Laguna says his
disappointment could even lead him to do what he considers almost
unthinkable, vote for President Clinton in November!:
   "Even though we have been stabbed in the back by Clinton, we
expect that of Clinton, but we did not expect that of our own
people we elected to represent us. So, if I cannot get Buchanan,
I would just as soon vote for Clinton or not at all."
   Talk like that from diehard conservatives in California is
troubling to Dole supporters here. As the most populous state,
California is also the richest in electoral votes. President
Clinton has spent a lot of time in the state and has made
significant inroads with voters in general. Bob Dole cannot
afford to lose support on the right.
   Many mainstream Republicans have attacked Pat Buchanan as an
extremist, focusing special criticism on his tendency to refer to
illegal immigrants from Mexico as "Jose and Josefina". Critics
see that as borderline racist in tone. But Jesse Laguna says he
is not offended:
   "Before you can get your story out, you have to grab people's
attention and you have to say certain things to get their
attention. But I am looking at the bottom line and the long-term
ramifications. What is going to happen if nobody says the things
that Pat Buchanan is saying? We are going to be overrun and when
do we call a stop to this?"
   A different perspective on this question is provided by
Northern California businessman Ron Unz, who ran an unsuccessful
campaign for the Republican gubernatorial nomination two years
ago. He also opposed a ballot measure supported by his rival,
Governor Pete Wilson, which would have denied most social
services to illegal aliens. Mr. Unz, who represents the
pro-immigration, libertarian end of the party, says the current
debate is focused on the wrong issues:
   "I would view the immigration debate as really more of a proxy
for other, underlying debates, which are being masked by it to
some extent. The underlying issues are issues of ethnic
separatism, bilingual education, multiculturalism, affirmative
action, those types of issues, which I think are terribly
damaging to our society and are, in some ways, connected with the
immigration issue. I think what we have to do is restore the
notion of the melting pot and assimilation. We need to get rid of
bilingual education, we need to get rid of affirmative action, we
need to get rid of multiculturalism and allow immigrants to do
what my grandparents, who were poor European immigrants, did,
assimilate into America and make it a richer society."
   Mr. Unz says immigrants invigorate American society and
stimulate economic activity and technological advances through
their intelligence and hard work:
   "I personally think the vast majority of immigrants to the
United States represent a very positive force for our country.
For example, I come from Silicon Valley (center of the computer
industry) and what a lot of people do not realize is that the
computer industry of Silicon Valley, America's technological
future, is very heavily an immigrant industry. Most of the
leading companies have staff members, engineers, chip designers
who are overwhelmingly foreign immigrants."
   Ron Unz says he fully understands why so many Californians are
upset about illegal immigrants, some of whom use social services
like welfare and food stamps supported by tax dollars. But he
disagrees with the solutions proposed by Pat Buchanan and other
politicians. He offers an alternative approach:
   "My view of the problem of illegal immigration is one word,
deportation. I have no problem at all with enforcing laws against
illegal immigrants. On the other hand, we have to weigh the costs
and benefits of policies. For example, if it would take the
establishment of a national identity card, senator Diane
Fienstein, the liberal, Democratic senator from California, has
actually advocated a national identity card that every citizen
would have to have, including annual fingerprinting of every U.S.
citizen. Now, if it takes something like that to stop illegal
immigrants from working as nannies and gardeners in California, I
think that is going much too far. I think we have to weigh the
costs and benefits of these policies and personally, I think one
way of stopping the problem of illegal immigrants taking
advantage of social welfare services is to cut the social welfare
magnet in general."
   If the immigration debate in California becomes connected with
the move to reform welfare and a general scaling back of
government, the issue could be helpful to the Republicans in
November, but a debate that divides Republicans could help
President Clinton. That's why the continued presence of Pat
Buchanan and his dogged pursuit of the immigration issue here in
California is not a welcome occurrence for Republican Party
leaders.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   THE PRESIDENTIAL SENATOR

   DAVID SWAN
   SENATE

   When U.S. Senator Bob Dole locks up the Republican
presidential nomination this week, he will be the first Senate
majority leader ever chosen to run against a sitting president.
Of course, these two men have already been feuding for three
years, but the everyday battles between White House and Congress
now take on a new meaning.
   For the past several weeks, Americans have seen Bob Dole on
the campaign trail, sparring with rival Republicans and winning a
string of primary elections. With his opponents vanquished and
the nomination well in hand, Mr. Dole is back on a more familiar
but equally crucial battleground, the Senate.
   During the primaries, Mr. Dole's Washington background was
sometimes thought to be a liability, when other candidates
attacked him as a partner in a failed government. But the voters
supported him anyway, and for the next few months, the senate
will be Mr. Dole's campaign podium. He hopes to set himself apart
from the president, while projecting the image of a strong,
effective leader, not the hot-tempered partisan voters sometimes
saw in his other campaigns.
   The senator started one recent day in a committee room. Then,
he and other Republicans crowded into a television studio to
renew their drive for a major missile defense program. Mr. Dole
took the occasion to charge his rival is leaving Americans at the
mercy of rogue nations:
   "Right now the United States has no defense, and I repeat, no
defense, against ballistic missiles. And if it's left up to the
Clinton Administration it'll stay that way."
   But the would-be commander-in-chief was uncertain about
details of this new project, including the cost, which others
said would be at least five-billion dollars:
   "Well, I'll leave that up to the experts here. It's gonna cost
money but I (laughter), but I think defense, you know, we're
talking about protecting American lives, that's what it's about."
   A few minutes later, the senator was back with another group
of lawmakers and a new issue, saving the ecology of the Florida
everglades. This time, instead of denouncing Democrats, he
praised the bipartisan effort that made the plan work. Mr. Dole
also tried to show his statesmanlike side after meeting with the
president to discuss the federal budget:
   "We laid out our priorities, the president laid out his
priorities and hopefully together we can work out America's
priorities."
   But while the Senate is Mr. Dole's platform, it can also turn
into a pitfall. This became clear when Congress took up the
emotionally-charged question of gun control and the House of
Representatives voted to left the ban on assault-style weapons.
   A vocal, well-organized gun owners lobby wants the law
repealed but public opinion polls show up to 70-percent of
Americans disagree. President Clinton vows to veto the bill if it
reaches his desk, and as Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein puts
it, the vote could haunt Republicans in the election:
   "If this vote is a vote that becomes part of the platform of
the Republican party, it makes the Republican Party way over on
the right, very extremist."
   Mr. Dole must try to solutions to this and other divisive
issues. He has done this many times in his career, but not while
trying to run the senate and run for president at the same time.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   REPUBLICANS IN CONGRESS PUSH MISSILE DEFENSE NETWORK

   DAVID SWAN
   SENATE

   Republicans in Congress have renewed their call for a national
missile defense network, one that goes beyond the programs
planned by the White House. The party has been pushing this idea
since the 1980s.
   In 1994, missile defense was part of the "Contract with
America," the platform that helped Republicans take over
Congress. In this election year, lawmakers are raising the issue
again in an effort to persuade voters the president has weakened
their security.
   Senate majority leader and presidential candidate Bob Dole
says his rival is ignoring a potentially deadly threat from
countries like North Korea, Iran and Iraq:
   "Right now the United States has no defense, and I repeat, no
defense against ballistic missiles. And if its left up to the
Clinton Administration it'll stay that way."
   The president vetoed a missile defense plan that cleared the
House and Senate last year. Though a number of nations are
building long-range weapons, the administration says there is no
imminent threat to the continental United States and
shorter-range, regional defenses should take priority.
   Officials say a nationwide system would also violate the 1972
U.S./Soviet anti-ballistic missile treaty. But many Republicans
want to abandon the ABM accord. Congressman Martin Hoke argues
the pact is based on a flawed cold war strategy:
   "That was not a good policy in 1972 and it is transparently
horrible policy today because the fact is that all a national
missile defense does is that it builds a fence around the United
States."
   The latest Republican bill calls for a limited but nationwide
missile defense system by the year two-thousand-three. The plan
would cost an estimated four-billion to five-billion dollars
before the turn of the century.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   CAMPAIGN '96 STATUS REPORT

   JIM MALONE
   WASHINGTON

   With the Republican presidential nomination now secured,
Senator Bob Dole is turning his attention to the November
election matchup with President Clinton. The 1996 campaign for
the White House will be fought out between 1,600 Pennsylvania
Avenue (the White House) and the U.S. capitol over the next few
months as both President Clinton and Senator Dole position
themselves for the general election campaign. The campaign will
officially begin in September after the party nominating
conventions.
   The next phase of the 1996 presidential campaign is one
Senator Dole should enjoy. He will pit his legislative expertise
and experience against the president in what is expected to be
several months of political jousting over legislative issues
involving the budget, welfare reform and anti-terrorism
legislation.
   Norman Ornstein is a policy analyst with the American
enterprise institute here in Washington. He says the Dole
strategy over the next few months involves compromising on some
issues and holding firm on others:
   "Bob Dole, as (Senate) majority leader, wants to get some
things done to reinforce the notion that he is a doer, he can
make it happen and contrast himself with bill Clinton as a
talker. That means that Dole is going to walk a tightrope. Some
legislation he will aim toward actually getting enacted into law
with a presidential signature. We will find that probably with an
anti-terorrist bill, we may find it with a somewhat diluted
version of the crime bill. Other legislation including product
liability reform as it moves through now, or possibly welfare
reform, Senator Dole would like to see the House and Senate pass
legislation that the president vetoes so that he can run against
the do-nothing president."
   But Mr. Ornstein adds that both President Clinton and Senator
Dole must be careful not to be seen simply as playing politics
with legislative proposals. Doing so, he warns, could carry a
political cost for both men from voters in November.
   Many analysts also believe Senator Dole is going to have to
sharpen his speaking style and his message if he is to compete
effectively with President Clinton in the fall campaign. Jake
Thompson is a Washington reporter for the Kansas City star
newspaper who has covered Senator Dole for many years and has
written a book about the senator called "Bob Dole, the
Republican's man for all seasons":
   "We are going to have a kind of a wonderful race between a
person who is one of the best political campaigners of the 20th
century, President Clinton and his ability to talk to people,
versus one of the worst, in some ways. Bob Dole is a great
consensus candidate who is able to pull in all the political
endorsements you would ever want. But he is just sort of innately
unable to excite the larger general audience and I think it would
be a great weakness that he will be working to overcome. I do not
know how it will come out."
   And if he did win the presidency, just what kind of president
would Bob Dole be? The way Jake Thompson describes it, he would
be a lot closer in style to George Bush than Ronald Reagan:
   "I have called him sort of the safe passage president. I think
he gets us from here to (the year) 2000 without terrible turmoil.
He would be a person who (house speaker) Newt Gingrich would try
to steer a legislative agenda through if he retains the
speakership and if Republicans retain control of the House and
likely the Senate this fall. But I do not know that we would get
radical change. I think we would get sensible government and I do
not know if that is enough to excite the American people, but
that is how I see it."
   Complicating the Dole strategy for winning the White House is
the reemergence of Texas billionaire Ross Perot who says he would
make another run for president if members of his new reform party
want him to.
   Political analyst Norman Ornstein says at the moment Mr. Perot
is only garnering about 14-percent support in a three-way race
with the president and Senator Dole. But Mr. Ornstein says that
most of those votes would otherwise go to Senator Dole, putting
Mr. Perot back in the role of political spoiler. Many Republicans
believe Mr. Perot's 1992 White House bid in which he captured
19-percent of the vote took votes away from George Bush and
helped elect Bill Clinton president.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   CALIFORNIA PRIMARY REDUCED TO IRRELEVANCY BY DOLE SWEEPS
   By Stuart Gorin

   California, the biggest prize in the presidential sweepstakes,
will be a must in the November general election; for the March 26
primary, it has been reduced to an irrelevancy.
   That's because Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole has swept so
many early Republican primaries and President Clinton -- with no
effective opposition -- the Democratic races, their respective
party nominations are now assured.
   Still Dole said he would wait for the California contest,
along with Nevada and Washington State on the same day, to
declare victory, since news agencies reporting unofficially that
he passed the magic 996 convention delegate count are including
precinct caucus results and delegates who were formerly
uncommitted.
   Dole also said he would again focus on being "a full-time
senator" and use his Republican leadership position in his
election battle with President Clinton. Said the Associated
Press, "Each is able to undercut -- or cooperate with -- the
other, intertwining even more than usual the business of
government with the requirements of politics."
   The intensity during the primaries has been high, said
Republican pollster Ed Goeas, but "The bottom line is Dole is a
better candidate today than he was two months ago."
   Meanwhile, despite losing all four primaries in the Midwest
March 19, Pat Buchanan vowed to campaign hard in California,
concentrating on such issues as illegal immigrants, and signaling
that he still intends to be a force which must be accommodated at
the Republican convention.
   And in a radio interview in his home state of Texas,
millionaire businessman Ross Perot presented the clearest signal
yet of his willingness to run again for the presidency. Perot,
who gained 19 percent of the vote in the 1992 election, said if
the organizers of his new Reform Party want him to be their
candidate, "then certainly I would give it everything I have."

   Following are the specifics of the March 26 Republican
   primaries:

   California: closed to all but party members; 165 convention
   delegates; winner-take-all statewide. Dole is expected to use
   this state primary as a trial run against President Clinton in
   November.

   Nevada: closed; 14 delegates; winner-take-all by districts.

   Washington State: open to all registered voters; 18
   convention delegates; proportional representation.

   On March 25, Utah voters will hold an open caucus. There will
be 28 Republican convention delegates at stake, and the state has
no formal system for their selection.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   CLINTON TESTING STANDARD STUMP SPEECH FOR FALL CAMPAIGN
   By Alexander M. Sullivan

   President Clinton hasn't yet formally declared his candidacy
for re-election, but he's already testing his standard stump
speech for the fall campaign.
   Not surprisingly, the core of the remarks Clinton will rely on
comes from his State of the Union address. What raises eyebrows
is the implicit bow the president is making to the populist
appeal of Republican presidential hopeful Pat Buchanan.
   Buchanan, it seems quite clear, will not be the Republican
Party's choice to oppose Clinton in November. Yet Buchanan's
campaign has profoundly affected his own party, and has caught
the president's attention as well.
   The vast majority of Americans reject Buchanan's stands on
trade protectionism and gender and racial discrimination, but
many embrace his disgust with the employment practices of big
business and his appeal for fairness for the American worker.
   Buchanan's rhetoric resonates with so-called blue collar
workers, the kind of one-time conservative Democrats who
gravitated to Ronald Reagan, and to a lesser extent to Ross
Perot. They are vocally edgy about contraction of job
opportunities and anxious about their own future employment
security as companies like American Telephone and Telegraph --
long considered the epitome of job stability -- announce that
thousands of workers will be let go.
   Buchanan rails at what he calls the corporate ruthlessness and
greed behind such decisions, condemning breach of an implied
contract between worker and business -- in Buchanan's nostalgic
view, a pact wherein employees would strive mightily to advance
the company's interests while the company worked hard to protect
worker security.
   The president defines the nation's problem more charitably,
seeing reasons other than greed for many corporate decisions, and
couches the issue in terms of fairness. Further, he argues that
Americans are not a people who resent the success of others
"fairly won" in the free enterprise system. "The thing we
resent," he says of his fellow citizens, "is when every American
who is doing the right thing and working hard and playing by the
rules doesn't have a chance to be treated fairly."
   Clinton has been struggling with the notion of economic
security since taking office, but his initiatives have been
diffuse and not specifically directed at the notion of corporate
downsizing. For example, his drive to reduce federal budget
deficits is fueled at least in part, he says, by the knowledge
that lower interest rates will stimulate investment in productive
capacity. He is seeking a substantial increase in the minimum
wage. His effort at comprehensive reform of the health insurance
system did not become law, but he is pressing for enactment of
lesser improvements.
   More recently, Clinton has begun to focus on the employment
practices of businesses. He has encouraged his labor secretary,
Robert Reich, to speak out on methods of calling companies to
account for their procedures. The president is reviewing
legislation proposed by Senator Edward Kennedy and others to
reward good corporate employment practices with tax breaks.
   While preparing for the possibility of new proposals, the
president is seeking to assure workers of his concern. "No one,"
he contends, "should lose a job" because a company lets "short
term considerations" outweigh loyalty to the work force. "We need
people to think about whether (downsizing) is the fair and right
thing to do," the president suggests.
   Clinton contends the uneasiness among American workers results
from an historic change in the economy last experienced 100 years
ago when the United States moved from an agricultural economy to
an industrial economy. Then, as now, he points out, "there were
people who found opportunities" undreamed of on the farm. "And
there were people severely dislocated and disturbed and whose
pattern of life was unsettled."
   The president refers to this as "a curious time," with the
unemployment rate at 25-year lows, inflation quiescent,
productivity up, corporate earnings skyrocketing and new jobs and
businesses coming on line every day. "That's the good news," he
says, "and its all true, but it's not the whole truth. We're
going through a period of change that is leaving some Americans
behind. Too many of our people are working harder and harder for
the same or lower wages. They wonder if they and their children
will be able to prosper in this era, even with new jobs, with a
booming export market. We have to do something about that."
   Thus far, at least, Clinton has chosen to address the job
security issue specific to the 1996 campaign by pointing with
pride to the efforts of private business, as in a recent trip to
California to highlight the cooperative nature of management and
labor in an audio manufacturing plant. The company plots its work
strategy to market conditions, with production line employees
sometimes working as salesmen and vice versa to avoid lay-offs.
There is heavy emphasis on re-training and education.
   "That's walking the extra mile," the president told the
workers, explaining that people are the most important part of a
profitable business, despite the technological advances of the
last generation. "We could pack all the technology we have today
and fly it to some other country," he points out. "The people and
how they work together, and whether they feel good on the job,
and whether they feel a loyalty to the enterprise, and whether
they think everybody is being treated fairly -- that is the
secret of America's future success."
   The president contends examples like that of the audio firm's
are "the answer -- to work together and forge into the future;
not to try to turn back (and) not to say to people, 'you're on
your own.' Your success is the model for America's success and I
am determined to see that we follow it."
   Clinton says he understands workplace shifts can be traumatic
as the emphasis moves to more mind and less muscle, even on
factory production lines and he's declared himself in for the
long run. "Our job will be done," Clinton contends, "when
everybody who is willing to work for it has a chance to compete
and win in this global economy."
   ---------------

   ---------------

   POLL SHOWS MAJORITY BELIEVE CLINTON DESERVES REELECTION

   A public opinion poll by USA Today/CNN/Gallup shows that a
majority of Americans (51 percent) believe President Clinton
deserves a second term in office, and that if the election were
held today, Clinton would defeat Republican hopeful Bob Dole 54
to 42 percent.
   The president also would win if an independent candidate made
it a three-way race, the poll indicated. And it found that among
critical swing-vote independent voters, Clinton is favored by a
two-to-one margin.
   However, the survey said that if Dole ran with retired General
Colin Powell on the ticket, it is a virtual toss-up against
Clinton-Gore.
   In another poll, taken by the Washington Post/ABC News, the
age issue has emerged as a significant factor. The numbers for
Clinton and Dole were similar to the USA Today survey -- 52 to 43
percent in favor of the president -- but more than one-third of
the respondents said they thought Dole, at 72, was too old to
serve effectively.
   Meanwhile, a CBS poll found that while Clinton was ahead of
Dole 56 to 39 percent, two-thirds of the respondents did not
believe the president has more honesty or integrity than most
people in public life.
   And in yet another survey, this one of voters who participated
in Republican primaries and caucuses thus far in the election
campaign, according to the American Enterprise Institute, there
was more concern indicated in the United States over the nation's
moral problems than its economic ones.
   But AEI's compiled research also showed that for the
individual voter, the single most important issue in the
presidential race is the economy, specifically jobs.
   Regarding U.S. trade with other countries, the majority felt
it creates more jobs than it loses to the competition. And on the
subject of a constitutional ban on abortion in the United States,
the majority view did not support it.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   FROM UNIT RULE TO PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION FOR DEMOCRATS
   By Mike Davis

   Discussing the evolution of the national convention throughout
the history of the Democratic Party, Donald Fowler, the party's
national chair, said the first event, in 1832, was modest by
modern standards.
   A few hundred delegates chosen then from a variety of states
cast their votes according to the preference of Democratic voters
at home. Like the modern day Electoral College, a state's
delegation was obligated to cast all of its votes for the one
candidate with the most support in that state. This is known as
the "unit rule."
   From 1832 to 1968, the national conventions were managed by
powerful party elites without much consideration for fair
representation or equality. A state's delegates were selected
from among the most powerful members of the party.
   But the 1960s civil rights movement attacked this method of
nominating the Democratic presidential candidate, demanding more
just representation. This initiated a wave of commissions and
study groups designed to bring greater equality to the party.
   Since that time, Fowler said, the Democratic Party has
struggled to "eliminate any vestige of discrimination that
humanly can be." He cited two guiding principles which preside
over the party's campaign ideology:
   -- first, that the convention process should be a fair and
open one, wiping away prejudice while ensuring dissemination of
information to anyone who is interested.
   -- second, a demand that the process be timely and meaningful.
To this end, the Democrats have set an official window for
primary season. All state primaries and caucuses must occur
between the first Tuesday of March and the first Tuesday of June.
Any states which refuse to conform to this window are penalized
with reduced representation at the national convention in August.
Iowa, New Hampshire, and Delaware were the only states to disobey
this Democratic mandate in 1996.
   During this election year, Fowler said he feels the only
potential remedy for the increasingly early primary dates and
"front-loading" is congressional action to regulate these dates.
If current trends continue, he said, the election in the year
2000 could see primaries as early as the preceding December.
   Rick Boylan, the Democratic Party's director for party affairs
and delegate selection, noted that in the process of delegate
allocation, states receive a base number of delegates
proportional to their population. Three-quarters of these are
selected proportionally from the state's congressional districts,
while the remaining one-fourth are selected from the state
at-large. Beyond this number of delegates, states receive up to a
15-percent bonus allocation of delegates for a variety of
reasons. High ranking Democratic National Committee members,
Democratic members of Congress, or past and present Democratic
presidents or vice presidents can all boost a state's delegate
count.
   At this year's Democratic convention, which will take place in
Chicago from August 26 to 29, approximately 4,200 delegates will
be present. Most of these will be "pledged" (promised) to a
particular candidate. About 800 delegates will be unpledged, and
able to cast their votes for whichever candidate they favor. This
year is unique for the Democrats in that President Clinton is the
only bona fide Democratic presidential candidate, and thus should
receive nearly all of these votes, making the convention a
seeming formality.
   What, then, is the purpose of a convention? Obviously, the
main purpose is to nominate the Democratic candidate. Other
reasons include formulation and adoption of the party platform
and provision of party governance. The latter two are carried out
by three standing committees within the Democratic Party: the
Credentials, Rules and Platform committees. Each committee is
made up of 161 members selected proportionally by state, plus an
additional 25 specially appointed members.
   Fowler described conventions as a four-night mini-series in
which parties and candidates are "substantively and
stylistically" presented to the American people. On Monday night,
August 26, the Rules and Credentials committees will make their
reports to the convention, followed by a keynote address from a
prominent Democratic figure. Tuesday is dedicated to the
platform. Wednesday is the day of candidate nomination, and
Thursday is set aside for the nominee's acceptance speech and
vice presidential selection.
   The 1996 Democratic convention probably will hold few, if any,
surprises, but Fowler is certain that the convention system never
will be eliminated from American political life.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   EMILY'S LIST LAUNCHES GET-OUT-THE-VOTE EFFORT FOR WOMEN
   By Elizabeth Loy

   EMILY's List, a partisan organization that plans to urge more
than one million American women to vote Democratic in 1996, has
launched a national get-out-the-vote effort that is concentrating
on five states: Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and
Washington.
   By focusing on such issues as economic security, crime,
education, health care and protecting a woman's right to choose,
a new influential political base of Democratic women will be
formed, according to EMILY's List president Ellen Malcolm and
Democratic National Committee chairman Don Fowler.
   "Women are key to Democratic victory in 1996," said Fowler,
"so getting women to vote is crucial for the electoral success of
our party." He noted that in recent public opinion polls, women
were shown by a margin ten points higher than men, to favor
President Clinton over Republican Senator Bob Dole.
   EMILY's List (the acronym stands for Early Money is Like
Yeast) is basing its effort on its 1992 success that created the
margin of victory for Senator Dianne Feinstein and other
Democratic candidates in California. Women then received mail and
phone calls encouraging them to request vote-by-mail
applications.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   PUNDITS' PEARLS

   -- Baltimore Sun columnists Jack Germond and Jules Witcover:
"If Messrs. Dole and Clinton spend the entire summer jousting
with one another without result, it would be no surprise if Mr.
Perot concluded that this was the ultimate proof that the
politicians cannot cut the mustard and decided to run again."
   -- Syndicated columnist Clarence Page: "I would like to see
Mr. Powell run because I think he would be a terrific unifier of
the races at a time when our national politics have grown
dangerously divisive....But, first, before the Dole-Powell ticket
can have a chance to unify America, they will have to get past
the disunity they would stir up in their own party. If Bill
Clinton loses sleep at night worrying about running against a
Dole-Powell ticket -- and I suspect he does -- he probably rests
quite comfortably over the turmoil it would cause among
Republicans."
   -- Weekly Standard columnist Fred Barnes: "Chances are, Dole's
decision on a vice president will hinge on how much he trails
Clinton this summer. If he's still 10 to 15 points behind, he'll
be more inclined to make a pitch for Powell, despite the risk of
alienating conservatives. If the gap narrows, Dole is likely to
play it safe and go with (Michigan Governor John) Engler or an
Engler clone."
   -- Political analyst Jude Wanniski: "Dole does not yet
understand that he won the nomination only because the electorate
decided that neither Steve Forbes nor Pat Buchanan, who in
combination have been addressing the anxieties of ordinary
people, are presidential. Both showed enough bad judgment in
their respective campaigns to nullify any chance of winning
outside the party establishment."
   ---------------

   ---------------
   CAMPAIGN '96: THE GOP'S PRIMARY CHALLENGE

   TOM MAHONEY
   WASHINGTON

   Senator Bob Dole assured himself the 1996 Republican
presidential nomination Tuesday [3-19] with primary victories in
the Midwestern states of Illinois, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin.
   But even if Senator Dole has won the battle for the heart and
soul of the Republican Party, the GOP challenger has just begun
the long journey he hopes will lead to the White House.
   The third time was the charm in Bob Dole's long-running quest
for his party's presidential nomination. He chalked up his third
clean sweep in as many Tuesdays, soundly defeating rival Pat
Buchanan in America's industrial heartland, a region which could
be pivotal in the November 5th general election.
   So with 999 delegates, three more than needed to secure his
party's nomination this August in San Diego, where does Bob Dole
go from here? One place, even though it is political frosting on
the cake, is California. The golden state, which holds its
delegate-rich primary next Tuesday, is too important,
particularly in November, to overlook.
   Greg Lashutka [la-shet-ka], Republican mayor of Columbus,
Ohio, has been political leader of the nation's 16th largest city
since 1992. He offered these thoughts about Senator Dole's
victory:
   "Well, I think there has been a long history with Bob Dole by
many at the state elected official level and a number of us at
the local level. And there's some comfort on his patience, his
analyzing issues, some say not with the same bravado as the
incumbent, President Clinton, but one who understands [the
importance of] discipline, reliability, experience and has
sacrificed a lot.
   Greg Lashutka says many people believe Bob Dole deserves to be
that steadying influence which they don't see or find in
President Clinton. The senator's main Republican rival,
commentator Pat Buchanan, refuses to concede defeat and is
campaigning in California before next Tuesday's primary. Mayor
Lashutka says when the spotlight focuses on the Republican
national convention this August, he expects Mr. Buchanan will
spark a constructive debate on a range of issues:
   "With Pat Buchanan raising issues that probably appeal as much
or more to Democratic strongholds, it may improve the quality of
the debate as we find out really where this vision for America is
coming from both of the chief candidates. So my sense is it will
be a bit of a challenge for Bob Dole, but my sense tells me it
will also push everybody to be thinking through where America
should be at the turn of the century, and that should be
healthy."
   Greg Lashutka, in addition to his duties as mayor of Columbus,
is also serving a one-year term as president of the National
League of Cities. He sees challenges ahead for both Bob Dole and
Bill Clinton in articulating their vision for America in the 21st
century, as well as addressing issues such as economic security,
which most concern the voters:
   "The issue of deficits, unreasonable taxation, excessive
regulations and a way to compete in a fair marketplace are the
heart of where both will have to be much more articulate and
convince voters that there is a systemic change occurring in
Washington that will improve their quality of life. Both will
have to pick up that responsibility and convince the voters and I
don't think either of them have as yet. But it is now time for
them to seize that opportunity.
   Mayor Lashutka says that between now and November's election,
they will either survive or fail on their ability to do so.
Tuesday's primary states all currently have Republican governors,
but President Clinton carried Illinois, Michigan, Ohio and
Wisconsin in the 1992 election. according to Greg Lashutka, it's
hard to overestimate the significance of these Midwestern states
in the 1996 presidential election:
   "Ohio, particularly, has been important. No president has been
elected without the support of Ohio in recent memory and that
[trend] is probably going to continue. it is interesting where it
is possible to win the general election on raw voter numbers but
lose the [margin of victory in the] electoral college. That's an
interesting rub this time that hasn't occurred since the 1800s.
   "So, Ohio, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, all will play
pivotal roles. Not only in the aggregate raw numbers for the
popular vote but also as the electoral college becomes more
critical. I don't think President Clinton or Senator Bob Dole can
ignore the Midwest on a continuing basis and I think we'll see a
lot of both [of them]."
   In the coming months, Senator Dole will be caught up in the
hard work of campaigning to defeat President Clinton and the
legislative give-and-take on capitol hill in his role as Senate
majority leader. It's a difficult task to strike the right
balance between the twin roles of candidate and legislator.
   Of course, the same holds true for President Clinton as he
campaigns for reelection. As both men contribute to governing the
nation from opposite ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, a major
challenge will be to avoid excessive partisanship and legislative
gridlock in Washington. The most lasting sign of how well they've
succeeded won't come until November 5th.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   CAMPAIGN '96: PEROT CHALLENGE TO DOLE CAMPAIGN?

   JIM MALONE
   WASHINGTON

   U.S. Senator Bob Dole is now looking ahead to the November
election campaign with President Clinton after obtaining the
necessary number of delegates to clinch the Republican
presidential nomination by winning the four Midwestern primaries
held Tuesday. Some new, potentially ominous, challenges for the
Dole campaign are appearing.
   They were chanting for Senator Bob Dole as he wrapped up the
Republican presidential nomination, confident that his next
opponent will be President Clinton. Many political analysts
believe that a Dole-Clinton race would be very close despite
current public opinion polls which show the president with a
comfortable lead.
   But even as he was celebrating his victory in the delegate
count, Senator Dole was facing what for many Republicans could be
a nightmare, another presidential run by independent Texas
billionaire Ross Perot.
   Mr. Perot told a San Antonio radio station that he is ready to
make a another run for the White House if members of his new
reform party urge him to do so:
   "But, let us assume that the dust clears and that is what the
members of this party want. Then certainly, I will give it
everything I have because probably there is not a luckier person
alive in this country today. And I just cannot sit here and see
things deteriorating and not do everything I can to try to put
our house in order for our children and grandchildren."
   Most Republicans regard another Perot run as bad news. They
believe he drew most of his support in the 1992 race from
President Bush, helping Democrat Bill Clinton win the White
House.
   Mr. Perot drew 19-percent of the popular vote in 1992, the
best showing of any third party candidate since 1912. Senator Bob
Dole says he still hopes to convince Mr. Perot that the
Republican party remains his best hope to enact the kinds of
governmental and lobbying reforms which Perot supporters believe
are essential to changing the way Washington works:
   "If he gets in, it does not change our strategy. We are going
to go out and try to win the election. But I would hope that he
would take a look at both of us and decide that, well, I do not
like what is happening with the Clinton Administration, but Dole
has tried and I will stick with Bob Dole."
   Dole supporters are frustrated and in some cases angry with
what they view as another likely Perot bid for the White House.
The Republican governor of Wisconsin, Tommy Thompson, says
Senator Dole would win a one-on-one match with President Clinton.
But he acknowledges that Ross Perot's entry into the race would
complicate matters for the Dole campaign:
   "Well, I think that there is always a problem if Ross Perot or
somebody else gets in. And I think that Bob recognizes that and
the senator if going to do everything he possibly can to make
sure that it is a two-man race and the three governors (other
Midwestern Republican governors) are going to be doing everything
they can to help him accomplish that."
   With Mr. Perot threatening to draw votes from the middle of
the political spectrum, Senator Dole also faces the possibility
of another insurgent campaign on his political right. Some of Pat
Buchanan's aides are talking up the possibility of Mr. Buchanan
launching an independent bid for president unless the Republican
party treats him and his supporters with respect at the
convention in San Diego in August. Mr. Buchanan has been trounced
in several recent primaries by Senator Dole but is vowing to
continue his campaign indefinitely.
   So while Senator Dole has the Republican nomination locked up,
in some ways his political challenges are just beginning.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   DOLE WINS MIDWEST PRIMARIES; LOCKS UP REPUBLICAN NOMINATION

   DAVID PITTS
   WASHINGTON

   To no one's surprise Senator Bob Dole won all four Midwest
primaries March 19. Most news organizations reported that he now
has more than the 996 delegates needed to lock up the Republican
nomination for president.
   In his victory statement, Dole said, "I think it's safe to say
I will be the nominee." He portrayed himself as the agent of
change and President Clinton as the defender of the status quo.
   The Associated Press reported the vote as the following
percentages:
   -- Illinois. Dole 65; Buchanan 23; Forbes 5; Keyes 4;
Alexander 2; Lugar 1; Gramm 1. A total of 69 delegates was the
prize in this combination primary; 59 delegates elected at the
district level and ten at-large delegates to be chosen by party
officials in June. The latter are likely to support Dole.
   -- Michigan. Dole 52; Buchanan 34; Forbes 5; Uncommitted 4;
Keyes 3; Alexander 1; Dornan 1. The 57 delegates were allocated
by proportional representation according to the vote breakdown
with 15 percent the minimum vote to win delegates.
   -- Ohio. Dole 66; Buchanan 22; Forbes 6; Keyes 3; Alexander 2;
Lugar 1. This was a combination primary allocating 67 delegates;
57 elected at the district level and ten at-large. The top vote
getter in each of 19 congressional districts won three delegates.
The statewide winner got the at-large delegates.
   -- Wisconsin. Dole 52; Buchanan 34; Forbes 6; Keyes 3;
Alexander 2; Lugar 1; Uncommitted 1. A total of 36 delegates was
up for grabs in this combination primary, 27 district and nine
at-large. The top vote getter in each of nine congressional
districts won three delegates. The statewide winner got the
at-large delegates.
   All four primaries were open, meaning all registered voters
could cast their ballots in either the Republican or Democratic
primaries. Since President Clinton faces no major opposition in
the Democratic primary, however, many voters in open primary
states have been voting in the Republican race.
   Earlier in the election season, Pat Buchanan was ahead of Dole
in the polls in Michigan, but, although winning 34 percent of the
vote there on election day, he lost the contest. Buchanan also
gained 34 percent of the vote in Wisconsin.
   CNN's exit polls revealed that about half the voters who went
to the polls in Michigan thought international trade costs jobs
at home. Many of these people voted for Buchanan. The results in
Michigan also showed that Dole did much better among female
voters than male voters. According to CNN, it was the female vote
that gave Dole his victory there.
   In an interview on CNN after the initial results came in, Dole
said, "I'm thinking about the Senate agenda, what we can do to
get prepared for the convention, and appointing a search
committee for the vice presidential nomination."
   The qualities he would look for in a vice president are
experience, similar views on the issues to his own, someone with
whom he can work, and someone who can readily take over the
presidency, if needed, Dole added.
   Speculation in the U.S. press has centered on whether retired
Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Colin Powell would accept the vice
presidential nomination, if offered. But in an interview
published over the weekend, he restated his intention not to
accept any vice presidential spot on the ticket. "It really
irritates me that a few people are purporting to speak for me,
stirring up this frenzy about my running for vice president,"
Powell told columnist Carl Rowan.
   After Powell, speculation is focusing on three Midwest
governors: John Engler of Michigan, Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin,
and George Voinovich of Ohio.
   In his comments March 19, Dole also appealed to Ross Perot not
to run on a third party ticket, arguing it would help President
Clinton win re-election. But Perot gave the clearest sign yet
that he might run. In a radio interview, Perot said if his Reform
Party wants him to run "then certainly I would give it everything
I have." His Reform Party already has placed his name on the
ballot in five states.
   The Midwest is expected to be a major battleground in the
general election in the Fall. In 1992, President Clinton carried
all four states and their 72 electoral votes, but narrowly. Perot
was on the ballot there in 1992 and is thought to have taken more
votes from George Bush than from Clinton.
   Clinton leads in the current polls and is expected to benefit
from the fact that the region is now one of the most prosperous
in the country. The industrial recession that hurt President Bush
in 1992 has ended.
   While campaigning in the Midwest before the March 19 election,
Dole sought to stress the differences with Clinton on the issues.
He said he would make public spending a major campaign issue in
the Fall. "He wants more money, more money all the time," Dole
told one campaign rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin.
   As far as Buchanan, his remaining major primary challenger, is
concerned, Dole seems partial to the advice of aides who advocate
offering an olive branch. "I'm trying to bring the party
together," Dole said. "We're down to two candidates and I've
never been one to dismiss what others were saying in the
Republican Party....Whether it was Steve Forbes, or Pete Wilson,
or Lamar Alexander, or Pat Buchanan, I've tried to listen because
each one had a good message. Each one was a good Republican, and
each one was reaching out to people, disaffected Republicans,
Independents, Democrats, whatever." But Dole has not yet decided
whether Buchanan will be offered a prime time speaking spot at
the Republican National Convention, which Buchanan has said he
wants.
   The next primary elections are on March 26 -- in Nevada (14
delegates), Washington State (36 delegates), and California, the
biggest prize of all (163 winner-take-all delegates).
   ---------------

   ---------------
   U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS ARE REALLY BATTLES FOR THE CENTER

   JIM FISHER-THOMPSON
   WASHINGTON

   In a preview of the upcoming November general election,
professor and noted political consultant Mark Siegel said that
the American presidential contest is "really won and lost at the
center" of the voter spectrum.
   Siegel, a professor at George Washington University's Graduate
School of Political Management, made his remarks March 19 during
a discussion of America's system of primary elections with
Mauritian journalists.
   He spoke to them in Port Louis via a telephone connection
arranged by the U.S. Information Agency (USIA). The political
discussion was also broadcast live on Mauritius's popular MBC
radio program "Club 96."
   Siegel explained that since about 40% of the electorate can
always be expected to vote Democratic in presidential elections,
and about 40% for the Republican candidate, "what we are really
talking about when we talk about battling for the presidential
election is vying for the 20% of the American electorate that is
persuadable -- or that goes from one party, or from one candidate
to another, in subsequent elections."
   What "we know about this persuadable 20% is that they are
basically moderate centrist voters," he said, operating in an
American political system consisting basically of two parties,
"one being the center/left party -- the Democrats -- and the
other being the center/right -- the Republicans."
   Siegel, who publishes a popular political newsletter called
"The Washington Insider," also updated the Mauritians on the
status of Republican Party presidential candidates. They are
presently positioning themselves for the general election in
November by competing for votes in state political party contests
called "primary elections," he told the audience.
   It is here, the political analyst explained, that the
presidential candidates jockey for the hardcore 40% of their
party's own votes before proceeding to campaign for the general
election, where the 20% "persuadables" become the target
audience.
   Siegel explained that in America candidates win delegates'
votes in these "primary," or first contests, which they then
carry to the party conventions in the summer, where the parties'
nominees for the November election are chosen. For the
Republicans, that meeting will take place in San Diego
(California) in August.
   Currently, he noted, Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole has won
the most delegate votes in the 27 state primaries held thus far,
and he looks to be the Republican Party's main contender against
President Bill Clinton, who has no real competitors for the
Democratic Party's presidential nomination.
   Siegel pointed out that "although Dole got off to a rocky
start by not winning in the Iowa primary elections as well as he
should have, and then losing in New Hampshire, Delaware, and
Arizona, he has won every primary and caucus since then and now
has the delegates needed [more than 994] to be the nominee of his
party."
   On the Democratic Party side, Siegel added that "President
Clinton was lucky enough not to be challenged for renomination"
and "right now he seems to have a very clear and decisive edge"
on retaining his party's backing for a second presidential bid.
   This has not always been the case, the scholar said, noting
that in the last six presidential elections, three incumbent
(sitting) presidents have been challenged by contenders in their
own party: George Bush in 1992, Jimmy Carter in 1980, and Gerald
Ford in 1976.
   In the latest public opinion polls, President Clinton "enjoys
a 15- or 16-point margin over Senator Dole," Siegel pointed out.
"But this will change and the election will tighten up,"
especially now that Dole has captured the delegates he needs for
party nomination, he added.
   Since Dole, like Clinton, has eliminated most internal
opposition in the primary elections, Siegel predicted that "he
will stop fighting for hardcore Republican votes, and he too can
start competing for centrist, moderate, persuadable voters."
   As this political strategy unfolds, Siegel said, "I expect
that you will see the president's [popular] margin over Senator
Dole will decrease."
   Expanding on his earlier description of the "20% persuadable
voters" both Clinton and Dole will be vying for in the months
leading up to November, Siegel said they are not necessarily
conservative or liberal, but rather "libertarian voters...who do
not want intrusive government."
   Interestingly, this exposes a paradox in current American
politics, the analyst added, because "the Democratic Party has
traditionally been interventionist, particularly in terms of
economic policy and social action," whereas the Republican Party
has had a laissez faire and libertarian attitude toward
government intervention.
   But now, he said, "the new Republican Party that has developed
in the 1990s is very different from the Republican Party we've
seen in the 1940s, '50s, '60s, and '70s."
   This new Republican Party is "actually an interventionist,
action-oriented, conservative party," he said, "that seems to
want to intervene in American society and inculcate conservative
values in schools, for instance."
   Social issues like school prayer or abortion, which were long
considered the "purview of family" by conservatives, have now
been adopted by the new Republican Party as issues susceptible to
government intervention, Siegel explained.
   This may pose a problem for a Republican Party appeal to
centrist voters, Siegel said, voters who object to government's
involvement in one's private life and who have long believed in
the saying: "Keep government out of the boardroom and out of the
bedroom."
   So "you can see," Siegel concluded, "there is going to be very
active competition going on for these people's votes, and this is
where the political debate will be focused over the next eight
months."
   ---------------

   ---------------
   DOLE CONCERNED ABOUT CHALLENGE FROM ROSS PEROT

   VICTOR BEATTIE
   WASHINGTON

   Senator Bob Dole, who Tuesday has clinched the Republican
Party's presidential nomination, says he hopes to put politics
aside for the next two months and concentrate on policy, as
Senate majority leader.  Mr. Dole, in a national television
interview (ABC's "Nightline"), remains concerned about an
independent challenge from Texas businessman Ross Perot.
   Senator Dole says, now that he has more than enough delegates
for the GOP's presidential nomination, he hopes to concentrate on
passing a balanced-budget deal and welfare reform in a way that
will avoid a presidential veto. He says he hopes President
Clinton, who is unopposed within his Democratic Party for
re-election, will do the same:
   "There are a host of things that are within our grasp if we're
willing to say for 30 days or 60 days put aside presidential
politics."
   Mr. Dole says he and the president have already agreed to put
off the line-item veto issue until after the presidential
inauguration in January. The line-item veto would give the
president power to strike out parts of congressional
appropriations bills he opposes.
   Mr. Dole says he sees no reason for Texas billionaire Ross
Perot to mount another third-party presidential bid. He insists
the congress is dealing with issues that prompted Mr. Perot to
run for president in 1992:
   "We do have lobby reform, gift reform. Term limits will be
voted on in the next three weeks. So nearly everything he said
ought to be done we've tried to do."
   Mr. Dole says a Perot candidacy would help President Clinton.
   Mr. Perot Tuesday told a Texas radio station he would run
again and give it everything he has, if members of his reform
party want him as their candidate. He took aim at both parties
for failing to come to grips with balancing the federal budget:
   "I just can't sit here and see things deteriorating and not do
everything I can to try to put our house in order for our
children and grandchildren."
   The Reform Party, organized with the-billionaire Mr. Perot's
backing last year, is expected to hold a convention and nominate
presidential and vice-presidential candidates later this year.
Party officials are working to get the party on the ballots of as
many of the 50 states as possible before the November election.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   GROUP SEEKS TO RID RELIGIOUS ORGANIZATIONS OF TAX FREE EXEMPTIONS

   ANDREW BAIRD
   WASHINGTON

   A big advocacy organization has launched a new campaign which
it says is aimed at restricting political activity on the part of
some U.S. churches and their leaders.
   Americans United, a 60,000 member advocacy group, has launched
a campaign to restrict illegal political activity on the part of
churches and their leaders throughout the United States. The
organization's "Project Fair Play" calls for Americans to notify
"Americans United" when they notice efforts by churches in their
communities to persuade their congregations to vote for a
particular candidate, or slate of candidates from a particular
political party.
   American United wants the U.S. Internal Revenue Service, or
IRS, to take away the tax exemption of churches found to be in
violation of U.S. tax code exemptions based on the idea of the
separation of religious activities and government. On March 19th,
for example, Americans United sent a letter to the IRS on the
activities of the 22,000 second Baptist church of Houston Texas
which the group says seems to be in clear violation of the U.S.
tax code. Barry Lynn, executive director of Americans United,
says that it's now up to the IRS to launch a more detailed
investigation:
   "So far in the political year, we have not seen anything that
is as sophisticated as this operation in second Baptist church.
Most churches play by the rules; they don't try to violate the
standards of the internal revenue service, but when they do, it's
completely appropriate for the IRS to take the kind of action
necessary to penalze that kind of political activity."
   Barry Lynn of American United said his organization succeeded
in alerting the IRS to political activities of another church
located near Vestal, New York. It was then denied its tax
exemption:
   "For the first time of American history, in January of 1995,
the church at Pierce Creek, based on a complaint that we filed,
lost its tax exempt status because it was actively involved in
opposing Bill Clinton's presidential campaign."
   Several reporters at the press conference said that the
Americans United campaign seemed to be aimed at religious groups
on the right of the nation's political spectrum. One reporter
said that he had covered President Clinton visiting a church in
Louisiana recently, where the president met with several church
leaders.
   One of the leaders then led a prayer that Mr. Clinton's
re-election campaign would succeed. The reporter asked Mr. Lynn
if this would constitute the kind of violation his campaign was
aimed at. Mr. Lynn hesitated for a moment, then responded that
although he would like more information about the incident, it
did indeed seem to be precisely the kind of political activity
which the "Project Fair Play" campaign might target. And he
reiterated that the campaign was non-partisan in nature, and
would be opposed to illegal political activity on the part of any
religious group.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   HOW DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES ARE INFLUENCING THE ELECTORAL PROCESS

   MAXIM KNIAZKOV
   WASHINGTON

   With recent demographic studies pointing to a rapidly changing
face of America, politicians wonder how these new realities will
affect the political landscape. They try to forecast what issues
will dominate political campaigns of the future as the size of
the white electorate shrinks and the baby boom generation of the
late 1940's and early 1950's swells the ranks of retirees.
   The U.S. Census Bureau says America's demographic portrait,
and its political scene, will be hardly recognizable half a
century from now. In a report released last week, the bureau
predicted that by the year 2050, English-speaking whites will
make up only 53 percent of the U.S. population, down from 74
percent today. By contrast, the share of the fast-growing
Hispanic and Asian communities will reach respectively about 25
and eight percent, with their gain in numbers translating into
political clout.
   Carol De Vita of the Population Reference Bureau, a Washington
research organization, says one does not have to wait 50 years to
see how changing demographics are influencing political
campaigns. She argues it is happening before our very eyes:
   "The size of different minority groups is increasing and many
of them are voting. The black population, the Hispanic population
don't vote at the same rate as white voters do. But I think that
you'll find a lot of minority advocacy groups being very active
this summer and fall (or later this year) in trying to get people
to register and to vote."
   Ms. De vita says new demographic realities are already
reflected in the political platforms of all the major candidates
for president. But their approaches differ. If conservative
commentator Pat Buchanan is bucking the trend, promising to build
a border fence to stem the flow of illegal immigrants, the
Republican frontrunner, Senator Bob Dole, seems to be more
cautious. Last year, he endorsed making English the official
language of the United States. But campaigning earlier this month
in Florida, he avoided the issue in front of his Spanish-speaking
supporters.
   The changing ethnic picture is only one demographic factor
affecting voter appeal. Ms. De vita says increased life
expectancy has led to a growth of the senior population in every
American state. People aged 65 or older now make up about 13
percent of Americans. President Clinton appeared to grasp this
when he took up the defense of Medicare, the government health
insurance program for the elderly. Republican candidates
abandoned references to Medicare cuts in their campaign speeches.
Ms. De vita elaborates:
   "There are many older people who rely on Medicare for their
healthcare coverage. And I think all of the candidates are going
to be very cautious about what policies they recommend regarding
Medicare. We know that Medicare is facing some very high costs
and represents a large part of our federal budget. But still, we
have to be cautious in terms of how we go about looking at those
policies because many people are affected by whatever changes
would be proposed."
   Ms. De Vita says most politicians are very much attuned to
changes on America's demographic map. President Clinton, for
example, has been hammering home the importance of preserving
funds for education and childcare programs benefiting middle
class parents. This, after demographers registered a mini baby
boom in the late 1980's and early 1990's, an upsurge that brought
the number of children in the United States to 68 million in
1994.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   U.S. OPINION ROUNDUP: IMMIGRATION REFORM

   ANDREW N. GUTHRIE
   WASHINGTON

   One of the national debates that has surfaced in this year's
Republican primary campaign is about immigration reform. The
United States continues to attract people from many lands who
wish to settle here to find opportunities that may not exist in
their own countries. But there is a growing fear among some
Americans that immigrants will take jobs that would otherwise go
to them.
   Presidential candidate Pat Buchanan has focused much of his
rhetoric on immigration. He says if elected, he will built a huge
wall across the United States border with Mexico to keep out
illegal immigrants. Others in the debate say this country has
always been a land of immigrants and is much the richer for it.
   However most people say some form of immigration reform is
needed to make the law more equitable, and a recent presidential
commission chaired by the late former Congresswoman Barbara
Jordan, did recommend some restrictions.
   "The Boston Sunday Globe" comments:
   "Americans like to think of themselves as a nation of
immigrants, and indeed they are, whether their ancestors walked
across a now-flooded land bridge from Asia in the prehistoric
morning of mankind or from Europe or Africa in the holds of
ships. That does not mean, however, that either this continent
or, more recently, this nation has always been welcoming.
Attitudes toward immigrants are cyclical. In times of labor
shortages, newcomers are welcome, but in times of slower economic
growth, Americans react against them.  This country cannot take
in everyone who wants to come without creating unbearable
cultural, political and economic tension. On balance, however,
immigrants add to the economy rather than subtract. The federal
government sets immigration policies, but the states and cities
pay most of the price. Washington should help subsidize states
and municipalities strained by immigration."
   Writing in "The New Republic" magazine, as reprinted in "The
Philadelphia Inquirer," Michael Lind says that a new immigration
policy is needed because of economic considerations:
   "The number of new immigrants, and their higher-than-average
birthrate, recently forced the census bureau to revise its 1989
estimate of U.S. population in 2080 upward, by an additional 100
million, to 400 million. But it is not numbers alone that should
convert liberal immigration defenders. According to a 1995 Bureau
of Labor Statistics study, competition with immigrants has
accounted for roughly half the recent decline in wages among
unskilled American workers. No wonder the Wall Street Journal has
proposed a five-word amendment to the U.S. constitution, 'there
shall be open borders.' iT's great for business. The numerical
cap [on immigration] envisioned by the original Kennedy-Johnson
reform in 1965,  290,000 [people] a year, would do more to bring
U.S. population growth in line with other developed countries and
raise U.S. wages particularly at the bottom of the income scale.
We would still have the world's most generous immigration
policy."
   In the far northeast, Maine's "Portland Press Herald" cites
the success of a local company, which was founded by Turkish
immigrants and employs many immigrants as proof that such workers
help, not hinder the economy:
   "Steve Barber, president of  Barber Foods [has] achieved an
incredible 20 percent annual growth rate over the past ten years.
A big part of Barber Foods's success story is due to its work
force of 700 employees, who are not only among the more
productive in the country. They also are among the more diverse.
[Mr.] Barber listed 64 languages spoken by employees, who come
from 30 countries, many as recent immigrants. It is a stronger
work force because of them, [Mr.] Barber said."
   In the southwest, "The Arizona Daily Star" in Tuscon
criticizes a bill proposed by Senator Alan Simpson, Republican of
Wyoming, which would drastically cut both legal and illegal
immigration. The paper also worries about proposed changes in the
law as it would affect those seeking political asylum or refugee
status.
   "Also in the bill is the unrealistic burden of arriving from
the mountains of Guatemala, for example, and having to prove to
border asylum officers a 'credible fear' of persecution. This is
not how the asylum law is meant to work.  The bill would set a
30-day limit on applying for political asylum while the current
law has no deadline. Thirty days to complete complicated paper
and legal work for people traumatized after pursuit by torturers
and military-dominated governments is completely unreasonable.
Often they are poorly educated and lack any means of paying for
proper immigration representation."
   "The New York Post"  laments the failure of the Simpson
measure to gain passage by the Senate as it was written:
   "...The widespread and understandable sense that too many
unskilled immigrants come to America legally needs to be
addressed. The rate of welfare dependency among immigrants is
higher than that of the general population. And unskilled
immigrants who find jobs, the vast majority, Tend to tighten the
labor markets for poor citizens. More than 80 percent of the
American people want immigration reduced; a growing number .....
Actually want it stopped entirely. Restrictions serve the
national interest."
   ---------------

   ---------------
   TOCQUEVILLE'S MODEL: RELEVANT ANEW?

   ANDREW J. BAROCH
   WASHINGTON

   Government agencies in the United States, both federal and
state, spend a total of more than 25-billion dollars a year on
welfare benefits for approximately 13-million Americans. Welfare,
and other government programs, have often been criticized as
being too costly, and ineffective. Participants at a recent
Washington, DC, conference said they had found an alternative, in
the pages of the 1835 political classic, "Democracy In America,"
by French philosopher Alexis De Tocqueville.
   The conference was sponsored by the Washington-based American
Enterprise Institute, a conservative research group. The
participants included top officials of the Clinton
Administration, several members of the U.S. Congress, as well as
representatives of major American philanthropic organizations,
like William Schambra (sham-bra) of the non-profit, Lynde and
Harry Bradley Foundation, located in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
   Mr. Schambra quoted passages from Tocqueville's book,
particularly the observation that, in the early 19th century,
Americans organized a large number of voluntary associations to
solve their community problems, rather than wait for government
assistance. William Schambra says the Tocqueville model calls to
mind a Milwaukee office secretary and receptionist named Lessee
(less-y) Handy, who, two years ago, decided the city government
wasn't doing enough for unemployed, poor people:
   "Lessee borrowed five-thousand dollars from her godmother, set
up her own non-profit training institute in a rundown office in
inner-city Milwaukee and started to teach her neighbors basic
computer skills and personal office skills. Today, two years
later, Lesse has trained and placed over 200 individuals in jobs.
Lessee Handy is the walking, breathing embodiment of the uniquely
American citizen Tocqueville discovered here over 150 years ago.
'When Americans confront a problem,' he noted, they don't fold
their arms and wait for government to solve it. Instead, 'they
get together with their neighbors, form an association, a
mediating structure, and tackle it themselves."
   Mr. Schambra notes that this kind of grassroots, activist
philosophy governed American life for much of the last two
centuries. Families, churches, neighborhoods, voluntary
associations "cared for our elderly," he says, "taught our
children competence and character, and surrounded us," he adds,
"with a rich moral atmosphere that reinforced our deepest ethical
and spiritual principles."
   But starting in the 1930's, after the period of the great
depression, when the U.S. government set up programs to help
jobless Americans, something happened to the Tocqueville model,
says Ben Wattenberg, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise
Institute:
   "In the United States, and in many of the other industrial
welfare democracies, these safety nets, while they have had some
very good features to them, have also had some very bad features.
Government has taken over from families, churches, schools,
synagogues, the Veterans of Foreign Wars, and all these
organizations that Tocqueville wrote about in 'America' being
such an intense area of voluntary activity, and we ought to try
to resuscitate that."
   The absence of such volunteerism is not only an American
problem, according to Peter Berger, a professor of sociology at
Boston university:
   "It's a problem throughout the advanced industrial world, in
particular, the democracies. The crisis, of course, is primarily
a fiscal one. There is a very simple fact that none of us can
afford the kind of welfare state that has been created. But it's
not just a fiscal crisis. It is also a moral crisis because
people are tired of the interference of the government in their
lives, which the welfare state has inevitably meant."
   Some analysts are concerned that a zealous, conservative,
anti-government approach modeled after Tocqueville's America may
not be the answer.
   Congressman David Bonior, a Democratic leader in the House of
Representatives, supports maintaining the current size and
influence of the U.S. government. In his view, conservatives tend
to romanticize the history, and inflate the accomplishments, of
grassroots organizations:
   "I must be very frank with you: I think it is a fantasy to
suggest that voluntary organizations, alone, can take the place
of government. We do need to revitalize civic organizations, but
that shouldn't be an excuse to tear down the social safety net.
It shouldn't be a reason to raid things like Medicare, Medicaid
[which are health programs for the elderly and poor], education,
the environment, school lunch, school loans. These are things
that, through the years, have strengthened families and empowered
people, have equipped them to reach out and to participate
directly into their communities. I know there are some people who
regard these programs as 'pillars of the welfare state,' but I
believe these are fundamental rights Americans have earned, have
worked for, have paid into, that they support overwhelmingly, and
I believe they should never be taken away."
   Congressman Bonior says millions of Americans have benefited
from government programs:
   "Before the government got involved, nursing-home abuses were
40 percent higher. Child-protection programs were a disaster in
20 states, and half of all seniors died without health care. We
can't afford to turn the clock back to those days. We can all
dream of a world where individuals work on their own, face to
face, to meet all the needs of their families, their children,
and of our parents, but that world, I think is a mirage. When
wealthy Americans were asked if they would contribute more money
to charity if social spending were slashed, only one in five
said, 'yes.' When given the choice, most wealthy people chose to
contribute money to things like the symphony rather than social
services."
   Some analysts believe that while the role of voluntary,
community organizations will continue to grow in the United
States, the government will maintain at least a "minimum social
safety net," in the words of Amitai Etzioni (amm-ih-tie
etts-yo-nee), a professor of sociology at George Washington
University. As he puts it, people who "worked all their life and
lived out all the things we asked them to do, took care of the
children, paid their taxes, volunteered, went to church, and now
they're on the street and can't find another job, we need to
attend to them." That, he says, is "a minimum of a civil
society."
   --------------- 

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