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                        '96 ELECTION SNAPSHOT
                               VOL.1 #5


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CONTENTS:
   FORBES WINS MOSTLY UNCONTESTED DELAWARE PRIMARY
   U.S. OPINION ROUNDUP: REPUBLICANS: THE BUCHANAN VICTORY
   NEW HAMPSHIRE VOTERS SEND STRONG MESSAGE TO REPUBLICAN PARTY
   NEW HAMPSHIRE: THE FINAL OUTCOME
   TOP NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY FINISHERS TAKE TO THE AIRWAVES
   ORGANIZED LABOR LEADER ON BUCHANAN VICTORY
   BUCHANAN ON CHINA FOREIGN POLICY
   REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP REACTION TO BUCHANAN VICTORY
   NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY ONE OF THE CLOSEST IN HISTORY
   PATRICK BUCHANAN NEW HAMPSHIRE VICTORY SPEECH TRANSCRIPT
   CAMPAIGN '96: FRONT-LOADING
   ADMINISTRATION PLACES BUCHANAN IN THE SAME COMPANY OF ZHIRINOVSKY
   U.S. OPINION ROUNDUP: THE RACE AFTER NEW HAMPSHIRE
   RICHARD LUGAR CAMPAIGN
   BUCHANAN WIN RECASTS REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RACE 
   THE NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY:ITS HISTORICAL AND PRESENT SIGNIFICANCE 
   THE VALUES OF THE "BIG THREE"? 
   FOREIGN POLICY NOT A BIG ISSUE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY
   NEW HAMPSHIRE VOTERS NOT TYPICAL OF NATION AT LARGE
   PRE-ELECTION POLLING INCREASING, ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE
   TELEVISION A BIG FACTOR IN 1996 NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY
   TWO REPUBLICANS DOUBT TRADE TO BECOME MAJOR ELECTION ISSUE
   NEW HAMPSHIRE/WHAT NEXT?
   NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY KIDS VOTING PROGRAM
   LAMAR ALEXANDER POST NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY SPEECH TRANSCRIPT
   NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY: DIXVILLE NOTCH
   CAMPAIGN '96: THE WOMEN'S VOTE
   CLINTON CRITICIZES REPUBLICAN CAMPAIGN TACTICS
   CAMPAIGNING AMERICAN STYLE
   ECONOMIC INSECURITY BIG ISSUE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY
   FOREIGN POLICY VIEWS OF REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES DETAILED
   NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY: PAST AND PRESENT
   NEW HAMPSHIRE: COMIC RELIEF
   SUPREME COURT APPROVES INITIATIVE AND REFERENDUM 1912
   PRESIDENT NIXON BEGINS CHINA VISIT 1972
   FIRST RECORDED VOTE AGAINST SLAVERY IN AMERICA 1688
   GEORGE WASHINGTON'S BIRTHDAY 1732
   WORLD PRESS: NEW HAMPSHIRE: BUCHANAN VICTORY
   =========================
   ---------------
   FORBES WINS MOSTLY UNCONTESTED DELAWARE PRIMARY

   JIM MALONE
   WASHINGTON

   Magazine publisher Steve Forbes has racked up his first win of
the 1996 campaign for the Republican presidential nomination. Mr.
Forbes won the Delaware primary Saturday, largely because he was
the only major Republican candidate who chose to personally
campaign in the state.
   Steve Forbes badly wanted a victory and he got one in
Delaware. The question now is whether it will be worth much.
   Mr. Forbes finished first in the Delaware voting, followed by
Senator Bob Dole in second place, commentator Pat Buchanan third
and former Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander fourth.
   Mr. Forbes immediately headed on to Arizona which holds its
primary on Tuesday, along with the plains states of north and
South Dakota.
   The Delaware vote may be seen as a setback for Senator Dole.
As late as Friday he was leading in public opinion polls in the
state. The Delaware results come at the end of a disappointing
week for the Dole campaign following his narrow loss to Pat
Buchanan in New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation presidential
primary last Tuesday.
   Mr. Buchanan is hoping to build on his New Hampshire victory
with a good showing Tuesday in Arizona, then another good effort
next Saturday in South Carolina.
   South Carolina is now looming as a crucial test of the four
major contenders. Senator Dole has lined up most of the state's
Republican political establishment while Mr. Buchanan will rely
on social and religious conservatives for support. Mr. Alexander,
as a former southern governor, is looking for a breakthrough in
the first real primary contest in the deep south. Mr. Forbes, on
the other hand, will be looking merely to stay competitive.
   The immediate beneficiary of the Forbes victory in Delaware
may be Pat Buchanan. As long as candidates Dole, Alexander and
Forbes split up the votes of mainstream and moderate Republicans,
Mr. Buchanan can ride his support from conservatives to good
showings in a number of upcoming primaries.
   Although the primary season lasts until June, most of the
delegates to the Republican national convention in August will be
chosen by the end of the March.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   U.S. OPINION ROUNDUP: REPUBLICANS: THE BUCHANAN VICTORY

   PHIL HAYNES
   WASHINGTON

   Republican Pat Buchanan's narrow, but surprising, victory in
the New Hampshire presidential primary election continues to
reverberate through the editorial pages of the U.S. press. And
there appears to be a strong consensus on two points, Mr.
Buchanan would not be elected if chosen as the Republican Party's
presidential nominee, and his New Hampshire win May weaken his
party's chances in the November election.
   The San Francisco Examiner seems to sum up the thinking of
most editorial writers when it says Pat Buchanan's "razon-thin
margin over (Bob) Dole spells grief for the GOP (Republican)
mainstream as decisive primaries loom":
   "The New Hampshire presidential primary with its over-emphasis
on a tiny piece of the American electorate does not - and should
not - decide the winner of either major-party nomination... Pat
Buchanan is no closer than he was before to speaking for the
mainstream of Republican voters nationwide. Buchanan combines
far-right Christian moralism with a populist economic theme,
attacking such Republican gods as corporate America (for laying
off workers) and free trade (for sending U.S. jobs abroad). His
appeal to the party at large may not exceed by many points his
New Hampshire percentage. So (Bob) Dole remains the likelier
nominee..."
   In Florida, the Miami Herald suggests that Pat Buchanan's
marginal victory in New Hampshire could only be good news for the
Democrats and President Clinton:
   "Pat Buchanan's victory in New Hampshire makes GOP
soul-searching imperative... His continuing rise, and Senator
(Bob) Dole's corresponding slippage, is in one sense the best
news that Bill Clinton could hope for. The former commentator and
columnist's record alone should make enough rope to hang him ten
times over in a general election. His anti-semitism is but thinly
veiled... He unconditionally rejects abortion rights, gun control
and free trade. Together, these make Mr. Buchanan the natural
nemesis of several nationwide constituencies, not to mention of
U.S. allies..."
   A prominent daily in a traditional Republican state, the Salt
Lake Tribune in Utah, says the leadership of the Republican Party
is, in its words, getting figety (nervous) about Pat Buchanan:
   "The reason for GOP concern is not just Buchanan's
electability (or lack of it) in the general election, but the
perception of him as an extremist who has too closely straddled
the line of bigotry in past pronouncements. Although he has
focused his current campaign on economic dislocation and trade,
he also strikes an anti-immigrant chord. Republican leaders do
not want Buchanan's controversial positions to be taken for the
party's positions now, Senator (Bob) Dole prompted by Buchanan's
success, has brought the issue into the open... It is an issue
that runs deeper than the Buchanan vs. Dole vs. Alexander
confrontations of the next five weeks. But certainly the upcoming
primaries will help set the party's direction."
   In New England, the Christian Science Monitor explains why Pat
Buchanan is having some success playing on the economic fears of
many Americans, but says his argument does not stand close
scrutiny:
   "...Pat Buchanan proposes, and amazingly appears to believe
in, a ten percent import tax (tariff) to save U.S. jobs from
global competitors. The arithmetic seems at first marginally in
his favor, but the Buchanan tariff would quickly cause American
consumers to pay sharply higher prices for food, cars, and
household necessities. That would cause a steep drop in economic
activity, hitting more jobs and everyone's standard of living.
U.S. customers abroad would retaliate with tariffs against
American goods, services, and farm products. Sharp global
recession would shrink everyone's purchasing power as well."
   Finally, columnist Anthony Lewis, whose "Abroad at Home"
column appears in The New York Times, says Pat Buchanan at least
deserves credit for forcing attention on the concern of many
Americans that they are "losing out in economic status and
security":
   "Many Americans have seen their earnings stagnate or decline
over the last 20 years. Thousands of middle-class people have
lost their jobs in downsizings by blue-chip companies and merged
banks... The trouble is that Mr. Buchanan offers quick remedies.
Put a 40 percent tariff on all Chinese goods coming to this
country: A nice round number. But what would China do about the
American entrepreneurs trying to enter its huge market? And what
would happen to political and military stresses in Asia? The
Buchanan program is essentially: 'stop the world, I want to get
off.' and that is a fantasy. The world market is here to stay."
   ---------------

   ---------------
   NEW HAMPSHIRE VOTERS SEND STRONG MESSAGE TO REPUBLICAN PARTY

   JERRY MCKINNEY
   MANCHESTER

   Voters in New Hampshire sent a strong message to the
Republican party by giving a surprise win to commentator Pat
Buchanan in its presidential primary. The Buchanan victory was
not big enough to give him a decisive lead in the quest for the
Republican presidential nomination.
   With a campaign stressing strong social conservatism, Pat
Buchanan surprised many veteran political observers by getting
the majority of the votes in New Hampshire's Republican primary.
In doing so, he edged out Senate majority leader Bob Dole, a man
who has now been beaten all three times he has competed in New
Hampshire.
   The second-place finish did not seem to deter Senator Dole. He
told supporters in New Hampshire the results only mean the
contest for the Republican nomination is now a two-man race. He
also confidently told them he will be the Republican presidential
nominee.
   Finishing just a bit behind the two leaders was former
Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander, who pledged to remain in the
race until a clear winner has been decided. Mr. Alexander told
supporters he is the only candidate who can debate the issues
with Mr. Buchanan:
   "I believe that Senator Dole now, after Iowa and after his
showing tonight, has shown that he does not have enough ideas to
base a campaign about the future. So the debate will between my
ideas, fresh, conservative ideas to build a picture of this
future to beat bill Clinton and Pat Buchanan's ideas. I look
forward to that contest. That is my (cheers) I will have more to
say about those ideas but as long as we're going to have an idea
contest, let's have a couple of Republicans in the contest who
have ideas."
   Throughout the campaign Mr. Alexander suggested the
72-year-old Mr. Dole was too old and lacked the view of the
future necessary to lead the United States into the next century.
   Because Mr. Buchanan's margin of victory was so narrow, it
appears almost certain all three of the leading candidates will
remain in the race.
   There is an almost-universal belief among political observers
Mr. Buchanan cannot be elected president in November because his
views on many issues are too extreme. Mr. Buchanan does not share
that view.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   NEW HAMPSHIRE: THE FINAL OUTCOME

   TOM MAHONEY
   WASHINGTON

   Conservative commentator Patrick Buchanan scored a narrow
upset victory over Senate majority leader Bob Dole in the New
Hampshire first-in-the-nation presidential primary. Former
Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander finished a close third and
millionaire publisher Steve Forbes came in a distant fourth.
   After a year of campaigning, which included debates, a
blizzard of broadcast ads and personal appearances by the
candidates, New Hampshire's voters had the final word. More than
200,000 cast ballots and gave Pat Buchanan his razor-thin victory
over Senator Bob Dole, 27 percent to 26 percent.
   Kelly Myers, director of the University of New Hampshire
Survey Center, says his polling provides one answer for Pat
Buchanan's success in the granite state:
   "He has put together an interesting coalition. Among
Republicans, he has very conservative Republicans and then, among
independents, he has independents who like the fact that he's an
outsider and they liked his economic nationalism message."
   But Kelly Myers says it remains to be seen if this coalition
can be kept together in future state primaries. Harvard Sitkoff,
professor of history at the University of New Hampshire, notes
that there has always been a far-right segment of Republican
voters in the state:
   "There has always been a significant segment of the Republican
voters [who are] heavily influenced by the manchester
union-leader [newspaper which endorsed Buchanan]. In that sense,
I don't find Buchanan's vote all that surprising. I mean, he did
better than I thought he would, but it's not all that much of a
surprise. He got 37 percent four years ago."
   Fred Barnes, executive editor of the Weekly Standard,
describes Pat Buchanan's victory in New Hampshire as a real
milestone in American history:
   "This is going to change the Republican Party because it is
going to mean that Pat Buchanan is around entirely through the
primaries. He won't go away. He probably will not win the
nomination. Of course, I didn't predict he was going to win the
New Hampshire primary, so you might take that other prediction
with a grain of salt. But, he is going to be around and
Republicans are going to have to come to grips with it. They're
going to have to assimilate Buchanan and his people somehow or
the Republican Party will split apart."
   While Fred Barnes thinks Bob Dole is still the favorite, he
believes the senator was weakened by his performance in New
Hampshire. Even with strong backing from the Republican party
establishment, including Governor Steve Merrill, the senator
failed to spark excitement among voters and generate the
enthusiastic support enjoyed by Pat Buchanan.
   Kelly Myers points out that Senator Dole's supporters tend to
be mostly mainstream Republicans. He says those more moderate
constituents might play a larger long-term role in the choice of
the next GOP presidential nominee:
   "I think one of the things you have to keep in mind from this
election is if you put together the support that [lamar]
Alexander got and the support that Dole got, that still makes up
over 50-percent of a kind of mainstream Republican vote went for
mainstream Republican candidates.
   "And so, if one of either of those candidates drops out of the
race, in all likelihood the other would benefit considerably and
they would be able to mount an effective campaign against Pat
Buchanan."
   In spite of Lamar Alexander's strong third-place finish,
professor Harvard Sitkoff says the former Tennessee governor has
a tough task ahead if he expects to follow through with an
effective campaign:
   "He spent an enormous amount of time in New Hampshire and came
in third. He's not going to be able to do that in Arizona, in the
dakotas, in Delaware and in all of the primaries that are coming
up. He's not on the ballot in New York and Pennsylvania. I think
he has a very, very difficult time ahead."
   Kelly Myers says his polling figures show Steve Forbes
appealed to voters in search of a fresh face and new ideas,
someone who wasn't a Washington politician. but after repeating
last week's fourth-place finish in Iowa, it remains to be seen
how long the wealthy publisher will continue his campaign.
   Fred Barnes, who has appeared on television with Pat Buchanan,
says the former presidential speechwriter has really matured as
an effective campaigner. He tapped into the economic anxieties of
average wage earners who want to see more in their paychecks and
those who fear losing their jobs at a time of large-scale
corporate layoffs.
   At the end of the New Hampshire campaign, Fred Barnes notes
that Pat Buchanan was running against more than his presidential
rivals and Washington:
   "But even, it seemed, the Republican Congress, the source of
this Republican revolution on Capitol Hill. He was saying that
the working class in New Hampshire isn't represented in
Washington at all. Not by [speaker of the House] Newt Gingrich
and the Republican freshmen and the Republican Senate. I mean, he
seems to be at war with his entire party, at least the part of it
in Washington."
   Senator Bob Dole, now a three-time loser in the New Hampshire
primary, says he and Pat Buchanan are locked in a two-man
struggle for the heart and soul of the Republican Party. Lamar
Alexander, of course, would take issue with that assessment. He
is among a growing number of Republicans who worry about how much
Pat Buchanan will divide this August's nominating convention. Not
to mention if either he or Bob Dole could defeat Bill Clinton in
the November 5th presidential election.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   TOP NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY FINISHERS TAKE TO THE AIRWAVES

   JOHN PITMAN
   WASHINGTON

   The top three finishers in Tuesday's New Hampshire primary are
aggressively preparing for primaries next week in several
southern and western states. Pat Buchanan, Bob Dole, and Lamar
Alexander all appeared on national television Wednesday to
discuss the results and their strategies.
   By Wednesday, Pat Buchanan was more than 500-kilometers away
from New Hampshire. Speaking from his campaign headquarters in
South Carolina, Mr. Buchanan said his win in New Hampshire proves
he is no longer a marginal candidate.
   He also responded to a comment by Senator Dole that his
candidacy threatens to split the Republican Party. Mr. Dole told
supporters in New Hampshire late Tuesday the race for the
nomination is also a fight for the soul of the Republican Party.
   In his television appearance, Mr. Buchanan said Senator Dole's
remarks reflected a sense of panic within what he called the
Republican establishment.
   Although Mr. Buchanan has in the past been dogged by
allegations that he is racist, anti-semitic, and anti-women, he
said Wednesday instead of dividing Republicans against each
other, his campaign is bringing new people into the party:
   "It is clear Pat Buchanan represents working class folks. My
strongest support is among women who make less than 30,000 a year
and do not have a college education. These are Democrats, these
are independents. I represent the Perot folks that the
Republicans drove off. I can bring them all back if these fellas
will simply open the door, we can put together a coalition that
will beat Bill Clinton. But for heaven's sakes, stop the panicky
name calling."
   Senator Dole fought back against suggestions his candidacy is
stalled or he is panicked. He called the loss in New Hampshire a
"small bump" in the road to the nomination, which he maintains he
will still win.
   In a news conference broadcast from New Hampshire, Mr. Dole
said he does not plan on changing his message, which he believes
appeals to many Americans. He said he is a better choice than Pat
Buchanan to bring the party together:
   it is mainstream versus extreme. I have been a mainstream
conservative all my life. I have got a paper trail, I have got a
voting record, it is there for everyone to see. But I am not over
on the fringe. I am not a fringe candidate. I am not a polarizer.
I want our party to be the best party in this country, not the
narrowest party in this country."
   The third place finisher, Lamar Alexander, used his time on
national television Wednesday to repeat his call for Senator Dole
to quit the race. Saying Mr. Dole has no new ideas, Mr. Alexander
tried to position himself as the only Republican in the race who
can stand up to Pat Buchanan:
   someone needs to take on Buchananism. I mean, Pat Buchanan has
an odd set of views. He has ted Kennedy's labor policies. He has
Dick Gephardt's trade policies. He has George McGovern's foreign
policies. Those are not conservative policies. Bob Dole is
showing he does not have any ideas about the future. Pat has the
wrong ideas. I have got the fresh conservative ideas that can
take on Buchananism and I intend to do it."
   Senator Dole says he has no plans to drop out.
   The tiny eastern state of Delaware holds its primary Saturday.
But the next real test for the top three New Hampshire finishers
is February 27th, when candidates will see how their messages
play in the western states of Arizona and north and South Dakota.
South Carolina, the first major test in the south, holds its
primary a week from Saturday.
   As for the remaining four candidates in the Republican field,
rumors have begun to spread about an early exit for California
Congressman Robert Dornan, but for now the so-called second-tier
candidates say they will continue.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   ORGANIZED LABOR LEADER ON BUCHANAN VICTORY

   JIM TEEPLE
   MIAMI

   Leaders of America's largest labor federation, the AFL-CIO
have reacted strongly to the New Hampshire primary victory of
conservative commentator Patrick Buchanan.
   Labor leaders meeting at Bal Harbor, a resort just north of
the city of Miami say they share none of Mr. Buchanan's beliefs.
John Sweeney, the chairman of the AFL-CIO did not mince his words
when he met with reporters Wednesday afternoon:
   "Patrick Buchanan is a racist. He is anti-semitic, he bashes
women's rights along with labor and immigrants, and he is a
believer in supply side economics. We are none of those things.
Our movement is not about dividing people through fear, it is
about bringing people together through compassion. We do not want
to build a wall around our country, we want to tear down walls in
other countries."
   Mr. Sweeney was reacting to suggestions that labor shares the
protectionist message which some political commentators say has
catapulted Patrick Buchanan to the top of the Republican
presidential contest.
   The chairman of the AFL-CIO says labor's opposition to free
trade agreements like NAFTA, is not based on opposition to open
markets, but rather on what he says are the lack of workers
rights, and environmental protection clauses in agreements like
NAFTA. John Sweeney also says when it comes to immigration issues
the AFL-CIO and Patrick Buchanan have little in common:
   "We are opposed to refugee or family caps and more restrictive
laws and bureaucracies, specifically the creation of any sort of
registry or data base to track illegal immigrants. We led the
fight against immigrant bashing in California."
   The chairman of the AFL-CIO rejected reporters suggestions
that Mr. Buchanan's message is shared by labor's rank and file.
John Sweeney told reporters Wednesday that Patrick Buchanan does
not support a raise in the minimum wage, strengthening worker
health and safety protection or the rights of workers to join
unions.
   Mr. Sweeney however said the AFL-CIO leadership meeting this
week in Bal Harbor, has not yet decided on whether to endorse
President Clinton for re-election. That decision he says will
come at a special convention to be held in Washington in early
march at which labor leaders will also debate raising union dues
for the more than 13-million members of the AFL-CIO.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   BUCHANAN ON CHINA FOREIGN POLICY

   DAVID DYAR
   WASHINGTON

   Political commentator Pat Buchanan's victory in the New
Hampshire Republican presidential primary election has brought
new attention to his foreign policy views.
   Since the beginning of the campaign for the Republican Party's
presidential nomination Mr. Buchanan has attracted attention with
his views about domestic issues.
   Reports of his comments about foreign issues mostly have
centered on criticism of free trade policies and the need to
preserve American jobs. He also has urged tough measures to curb
illegal immigration and to slash foreign aid.
   This week, when he spoke on the American Broadcasting
Company's program "This week with David  Mr. Buchanan elaborated
somewhat on U.S./China relations. In an exchange with commentator
Sam Donaldson, candidate Buchanan criticized President Clinton's
policies toward China.
   Buchanan: I think our policy toward China is craven
appeasement. Craven appeasement. They've got a 40 billion dollar
surplus at our expense.
   Donaldson: American business wants to go over there, Mr.
Buchanan.
   Buchanan: American business is not going to run the Buchanan
administration. It's run too many administrations. It is too much
in control of the Congress.
   Mr. Buchanan was asked about campaign advertisements
discussing nuclear weapons. The political advertising suggested
that under certain circumstances Mr. Buchanan would favor
supplying small nuclear arms to Taiwan, South Korea, Japan or
Australia. Mr. Buchanan said the ads distorted his position. He
said he would not renege on the nuclear non proliferation treaty:
   "I would not transfer American nuclear weapons to any nation.
But I think we'd better think about the possibility, with
Pyongyang building nuclear weapons. China has them, threatening
Taiwan. You'd better think about the possibility that these
nations are going to go nuclear on their own. It is a major
issue. It ought to be discussed."
   In another exchange with Mr. Donaldson, Mr. Buchanan was more
specific about how he might react to the possibility of a
conflict between China and Taiwan.
   Donaldson: Should the United States, if you were president,
actually preserve Taiwan's independence by force of arms, if
necessary?
   Buchanan: Excellent question. If the United States indicated
we're abandoning Taiwan completely, my guess is Taiwan would try
to rush to some kind of small nuclear deterrent. I believe we
should quietly tell China this, sam: "Listen, you are not going
to destroy the independence of these people. You're not going to
violate all our agreements. You said the future of China would be
worked out peacefully. If you try to invade or destroy that
island, you've got a horrendous crisis with the United States." I
would not do it publicly. I would send someone, like Jim
Schlesinger over to China to talk right across the table form
them, and to talk realistically.
   Mr. Buchanan said a raid on Taiwan by China was unlikely but
when pressed for his likely response to such an attack he called
for a display of armed might and severe trade restrictions:
   "I would leave my options open. I'll tell you what I would do.
I would start an airlift of modern aircraft. And I would sell the
Taiwanese whatever they needed in terms of anti-submarine naval
forces. I would move the 7th fleet right in that particular area.
And then I would tell the Chinese, again, "we have told you,
don't do this." I think China would wake up and listen because
the first thing it would suffer is an economic contraction,
because I would shut off trade with China."
   Mr. Buchanan previously has called for a 20 per cent tariff on
Chinese exports to the United States. During the interview Sunday
he repeated his position that he would not renew China's most
favored nation trading status and indicated he might impose a
higher tariff than the 20 per cent he earlier advocated.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP REACTION TO BUCHANAN VICTORY

   MICHAEL BOWMAN
   WASHINGTON

   The results of Tuesday's New Hampshire primary appear to
portend a tight and divisive race for the Republican presidential
nomination. Many leaders within the Republican establishment are
expressing concern their party is being torn apart, to the
benefit of Democratic President Bill Clinton's re-election
effort.
   As voting results poured in from across New Hampshire,
Republican leaders not yet committed to any particular candidate
painted a somber picture of their party's presidential hopes.
Former vice-President Dan Quayle suggested the Republican quest
to recapture the White House would have benefited from a unified
New Hampshire endorsement of the party's supposed front-runner,
Senate majority leader Bob Dole.
   As Mr. Quayle acknowledges, that did not happen:
   "If Bob Dole had won convincingly, then the race would have
been over. It's not over. Bob Dole did not win. He's going to
have a difficult race ahead of him. It's wide open."
   Of particular consternation to many mainstream Republicans is
the rising star of populist political commentator Pat Buchanan, a
man who has never held political office, yet finished first in
New Hampshire. Mr. Buchanan is unique among the eight-candidate
Republican presidential field. In a party that has generally
endorsed free trade and U.S. engagement abroad, Pat Buchanan
fervently advocates protectionism, U.S. withdrawal from the
United Nations and sealing off U.S. borders to foreign migrants.
Most fellow-Republican candidates, as well as other influential
members of the party, have painted Mr. Buchanan as an
isolationist and a social extremist whose views will sow
dissension and lead to defeat in the November election.
   Kenneth Duberstein, who served as chief of staff to former
president Ronald Reagan, accuses Pat Buchanan of betraying the
Reagan legacy and dividing the party:
   "Pat Buchanan, while he campaigns under the mantle of Ronald
Reagan, is no Ronald Reagan. He is an isolationist. Ronald Reagan
was a free-trader. Pat Buchanan divides people. He has a very
different message than the message of Ronald Reagan. Pat Buchanan
is missing the message."
   Mr. Duberstein says Americans want a candidate who exudes
optimism and fortifies America's collective, national
self-confidence, elements he says are missing from the current
Republican race:
   "The disaffected voters are saying, 'we're back with the
Republican party. Listen to us. Don't give us the false answers
of Pat Buchanan. Give us hope and give us opportunity.'"
   For his part, Pat Buchanan appears to revel in the ire he
provokes among some Republicans. Mr. Buchanan says political
attacks against him actually boost his image as an outsider whose
ears are tuned to the cries of the American public. He has vowed
to take his campaign all the way to the Republican national
convention in August, and then to the White House.
   In 1994, it was the Democrats who appeared divided and
demoralized after that year's mid-term election. That year,
Republicans took control of both houses of the U.S. Congress with
a clearly-stated economic agenda, known as the contract with
America. This year, the situation looks different. President
Clinton did not immediately comment publicly on the Republican
contest in New Hampshire. But political observers say the
president is surely savoring the discord among his political
opponents, confident that his own Democratic Party will nominate
him for a second term without a challenge.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY ONE OF THE CLOSEST IN HISTORY

   NICK SIMEONE
   MANCHESTER

   The New Hampshire primary, the first of the U.S. presidential
campaign season, has handed an upset victory to conservative
commentator Patrick Buchanan. It was one of the closest races in
New Hampshire primary history. For the moment the man who appears
to have lost the most is Senator Bob Dole, who watched months of
front-runner status slip away to his rival on the right.
   Pat Buchanan won New Hampshire by a razor's edge. In the end,
it came down to a very-narrow victory over Senator Dole, the man
who, in the final weeks of New Hampshire, watched his clear-cut
front-runner status over the months vanish in the state which has
denied him a primary victory three times.
   The Buchanan win could be due, at least in part, to his corps
of committed supporters, who rallied around his sharply defined
America-first message, calling for less U.S. involvement
overseas. That theme seemed to play well in a state with a
largely working-class electorate worried about the economy and
jobs. Mr. Buchanan repeated some of his themes, as he savored
news of his lead at a celebration with supporters late Tuesday:
   "We speak for a generation of Americans, a ne: generation
which is about to take office and assume the leadership of this
country; which does not apologize for the fact that we will
defend America's borders. We do not apologize for the fact that
we're going to take control of our own national destiny. And, we
do not apologize for the fact that never again will young
Americans be put under U.N. command."
   Senator Dole had been considered the establishment candidate
of the Republican party, with most of New Hampshire's party
apparatus endorsing him. He vowed to fight on for the biggest
prize of his long political career, while delivering an obvious
criticism of Mr. Buchanan:
   "We know that we're now engaged in a fight for the heart and
soul of the Republican party. That's what this race is going to
be about from now on. And in the next month, we will decide if we
are the party of fear or hope, if we are the party that keeps
people out or brings people in."
   Former Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander, despite his third
place finish, still believes he has he best chance to defeat Bill
Clinton. Mr. Alexander says Senator Dole should step aside so
that he can take on Pat Buchanan, one on one:
   "I believe that Senator Dole now, after Iowa and after his
showing tonight, has shown that he does not have enough ideas to
base a campaign about the future. So the debate will be between
my ideas, fresh, conservative ideas to build a picture of this
future to beat Bill Clinton and Pat Buchanan's ideas."
   Millionaire publisher Steve Forbes finished in fourth place,
despite the massive amount of money he spent on radio and
television advertising. Even after his standing in the polls here
began dropping, he said he planned to remain in the presidential
race for the long run.
   President Clinton was also on the ballot here in the
Democratic primary. His victory was assured since he has no
serious democratic opponents.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   PATRICK BUCHANAN NEW HAMPSHIRE VICTORY SPEECH TRANSCRIPT

   NEW HAMPSHIRE

   This is the transcript of a speech by Republican candidate and
news commentator Patrick Buchanan, the winner in the New
Hampshire primary.
   Buchanan: "My heart is filled with gratitude tonight,
gratitude for the many who helped with this campaign over a long,
long year of effort and labor and sacrifice and commitment. It is
full of gratitude for the wonderful people of New Hampshire, who
resisted negative campaigning and nasty attack ads and smears,
and all that nonsense. Let them (my opponents) do their worst, we
shall do our best.
   "People in New Hampshire, they voted their hopes, not their
fears, their aspirations and their dreams, and they stood up to
the negativeness from inside the beltway (or inside Washington).
To all those fellows with those attack ads, take them on back
down to the beltway, we don't need them up here. We love you, my
friend. My heart is filled with gratitude for another person
tonight... Friends, this is not a victory for a man. Again, this
a victory for cause. It is the cause of a brand new bold
conservatism in American politics; conservatism that gives voice
to the voiceless, that speaks up for the right to life of the
innocent unborn; a conservatism that looks out for the men and
women of this country whose jobs have been sacrificed on the
alters of trade deals done for the benefit of trans-national
corporations who have no loyalty to our country, and no loyalty
to anybody.
   "This is a victory for the good men and women of middle
America who cannot understand why there is deafness in Washington
and silence about the fact the standard of living of our working
men and women in middle class have been stagnating, while profits
have been soaring. They call me names, somebody tonight called me
a socialist, they call me "the right," they can't figure out
where we are: Right, left, new deal, where is that fellow?
(Laughter) he's some strange creature from the 30's, no, he's
60's, 1700's, we don't know where he's from. Listen, where we're
coming from, we're conservatives of the heart, we care about the
people. We're going to give voice to the voiceless. We speak up
for those who have no representative. We're going to go to
Washington. We will be a lobbyist for those who don't have a
lobbyist in Washington, D.C.
   "This new conservatism is committed to many things, and one
thing we're going to do, we're going out after GATT and NAFTA,
and we're going to recapture the lost sovereignty of our country,
and we're going to bring it home. We're going to make America the
constitutional republic again of our founding fathers' dreams. We
speak for a new generation of Americans which is about to take
office and assume the leadership of this country, which it does
not apologize for the fact that we will defend America's borders.
We do not apologize for the fact that we're going to take control
of our own national destiny, and we do not apologize for the fact
that never again will young Americans be put under U.N. command.
   "We're taking back our party, we are on the verge of taking it
back as prelude to taking back the destiny of America. And when
we get there, my friends, we will only be obedient to one
sovereign America, and that is the sovereign of god himself and
his laws. God only rules over this country. I believe those of us
in this room are the true sons and daughters I believe of the
founding fathers. We are their legitimate and rightful heirs. We
have never forgotten where we came from. Our heritage goes back
to Lexington and Concord and Yorktown and Saratoga, and my
friends in this campaign, we have conducted a three-week
political campaign that will go down in legend in American
politics. They wrote us off, three weeks ago, (they said) "Pat,
when are you going to get out of single digits, pat? When are you
going to get out of single digits? Bob Dole's at 50-percent." We
told them, three weeks....Stunned them in Alaska. We came out of
Alaska, we came out of the tundra, we went down to the bayou of
Louisiana, we did it again. When we drove across those frozen
cornfields of Iowa, they said his trade message will never be
heard out here. It was heard. And then we came up here we won it
all in Manchester. We're going on to San Diego, we're going on to
the nomination, we're going on to the White House.
   "You know, we have shown something here tonight. We have
proven it to the country. We have proven that passion...We will
offer our hand, we will say "listen, we will keep the doors to
this campaign open only to those who do not shut any doors to
us." We have proven something in this campaign. We have shown
that ideals and conviction, and passion, and fire, and energy.
They can beat big money any time. They can beat all the money
they've got. That's what America's all about.
   "So tonight, we are headed down to South Carolina, from there,
we are going out to the Dakotas, i'm going to go visit Mt.
Rushmore, and there's a spot up on that mountain I'm going to
take a look at (for my likeness). Then we're going on to Arizona.
But listen my friends, we have won a tremendous victory here
tonight, but we no longer have the element of surprise. We had it
in Alaska in Louisiana. All the forces of the old order are going
to rally against us. The establishment is coming together, you
can hear them right now. The fax machines and phones are buzzing
in D.C. We've got to get together, somebody's got to get out and
take on this guy. We don't have time, we need the troops...But
I'm telling the folks out in the country. They're going to come
after this campaign with everything they've got. Do not wait for
orders from headquarters, mount up everybody and ride to the
sound of the gun. Thank you. "
   ---------------

   ---------------
   CAMPAIGN '96: FRONT-LOADING

   TED LANDPHAIR
   WASHINGTON

   President Clinton is virtually unopposed in Democratic state
primary elections. But three Republican candidates did well
enough in the important first primary in New Hampshire and the
first state caucuses in Iowa to still be mentioned as serious
contenders heading toward the party's presidential nominating
convention in San Diego in August.
   Now comes a herculean test, as Bob Dole, Pat Buchanan, and
Lamar Alexander must win over voters in more than 30 other state
primaries or caucuses by the end of March. By then, better than
60 percent of the Republican convention's 1,990 delegates will
have been chosen. Cramming so many state primaries into February
and March is something new this year.
   It's called "front-loading."
   In past presidential election years, the delegate selection
season kicked off with the traditional Iowa caucuses and New
Hampshire primary, during which the wheat among each party's
candidates was separated from the chaff. Those who did well in
those two small states built up momentum for the long and
grueling series of primaries to come over the next four months,
ending with the huge California primary in June.
   All that changed in 1988, when 20 states, mostly in the south,
got together and agreed to hold their primaries on the same day,
early in March, soon after the New Hampshire primary. This "Super
Tuesday," as it became known, allowed candidates to campaign
regionally, rather than having to skip back and forth across the
country. It also meant the candidates were likely to spend more
time and advertising money in southern states.
   Georgetown University government professor Stephen Wayne says
the idea of front-loading primaries caught on. Other states also
began to bunch their primaries by region and to move as far ahead
in the season as possible:
   "They found that in the past, those who've held it late have
not had a major influence on who the nominee would be. And
therefore to exercise some clout and to encourage people to turn
out, they have moved the contest toward the beginning of the
process."
   Front-loading is even more extensive this year. On Tuesday,
March fifth, a number of northern and western states will hold
primaries. Then, on March twelfth comes super Tuesday, followed a
week later by another round of closely bunched primaries in the
Midwest. Even California has moved up its primary from June to
the last Tuesday in March.
   This front-loading puts great pressure on candidates and their
campaign managers. They have to run hard and well in a number of
key states at the same time. That's especially critical in big
states where the winner gets all of that state's delegates. In
California alone, that's 163, or eight percent, of the number
needed to win the nomination.
   Front-loading has led to what's called "wholesale politics"
waged through airport speeches, debates, and ads on television
and radio, rather than in a lot of personal handshaking.
   This year, professor Wayne says, the best-known candidate with
a healthy campaign war chest was Bob Dole, the Senate majority
leader who built a strong organization, and got endorsements from
key state governors:
   "To get on radio and television, they have to have money, lots
and lots of money. And so this gives advantages to the candidates
who are best known and who have the most money."
   But Mr. Dole lost the New Hampshire primary to conservative
commentator Pat Buchanan, whom Mr. Dole barely beat in Iowa. And
a new face to national politics, former Tennessee Governor Lamar
Alexander, finished a strong third in both states. Publisher
Steve Forbes spent millions of his own dollars to compete in the
Iowa and New Hampshire contests but finished a distant fourth in
both.
   Stephen Wayne says Pat Buchanan's strong showing will bring
him lots of money and people willing to work on the campaign. He
says Mr. Buchanan is a newsmaker as well as a former newsman:
   "He's been called extreme, and that's probably one of the
nicest things he's been called. So any time he talks, he makes
news. He's got the most passionate core of supporters. He's got
one-quarter of the Republican party who will stay with him in
good times and bad times and just like what he has to say."
   The big issue for Mr. Buchanan, Stephen Wayne says, is whether
he can enlarge on his core support in the crush of primaries just
ahead.
   Many Republicans in Iowa and New Hampshire voted for
Alexander, Mr. Wayne says, either because they disliked Bob Dole
and Pat Buchanan, or because Mr. Alexander seemed a fresher face
who might be better able to defeat President Clinton. But there's
another issue affecting Lamar Alexander now that the big state
primaries are looming:
   "The media will begin to take him seriously if he does better.
And we'll see about his past, we'll see about his positions, and
we'll analyze those. We know a lot about Pat Buchanan. This is
the second time he's run for the presidency. We know a lot about
Robert Dole. He's been in Washington for 35 years. He's the
majority leader. He's run a lot of campaigns. We know very little
about Lamar Alexander."
   If the three current leaders continue to split the vote in the
front-loaded state primaries to come, it is possible that the
Republicans could hold their first convention since 1948 in which
the eventual nominee had not been determined beforehand in the
primaries, or selected on the first convention ballot. In such a
scenario, says Stephen Wayne, all three men might feel they have
an advantage, Mr. Dole because he has the most endorsements, Mr.
Alexander because he may be perceived as more electable, and Mr.
Buchanan because he may have the most passionate supporters.
   But after that first ballot, says Stephen Wayne:
   "If the votes are divided, and no one has a big lead, the odds
are that they [the party] would probably turn to somebody else if
the party leaders could agree to that."
   Somebody, Stephen Hess says, like retired General Colin Powell
or former housing Secretary Jack Kemp, who for now have said
they're not interested in running.
   The nation should know by the end of March whether voters in
the delegate-rich, front-loaded primaries will have cast the die
and assured the identity of the Republican opponent to President
Clinton.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   ADMINISTRATION PLACES BUCHANAN IN THE SAME COMPANY OF ZHIRINOVSKY

   DAVID BORGIDA
   WHITE HOUSE

   In American politics, President Clinton has generally
refrained from commenting directly on the Republican presidential
primary race. But his spokesman has been hard-pressed lately to
avoid comment on the recent success of politically-conservative
commentator Pat Buchanan. Mr. Buchanan narrowly defeated Senate
majority leader Bob Dole in Tuesday's New Hampshire primary.
   Politically-savvy Clinton spokesman Mike McCurry has been
around Washington long enough to know just what reporters are
looking for when they ask certain questions.
   So when one asked him to explain the White House view of the
Buchanan success, Mr. McCurry was prepared. There was no
long-winded answer. But there was a carefully-crafted one-line
McCurry response that placed Mr. Buchanan in the political
company of one Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the ultra-nationalist
Russian presidential candidate who has congratulated Mr.
Buchanan, calling him, in his words, "a comrade and
brother-in-arms."
   McCurry responded:
   "If you want a Buchanan angle, try Vladimir Zhirinovsky."
   Since his New Hampshire primary victory Tuesday, Mr. Buchanan
has been busy denying charges he has racist views. Senator Dole
is calling him an extremist.
   The Clinton spokesman is watching all this with obvious
delight, adding a provocative comment of his now and then just to
make sure the combustible Republican battle stays that way.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   U.S. OPINION ROUNDUP: THE RACE AFTER NEW HAMPSHIRE

   ANDREW N. GUTHRIE
   WASHINGTON

   Television commentator Pat Buchanan's somewhat unexpected
victory in the nation's first presidential primary election, in
the small New England state of New Hampshire, has topped the
editorial columns of most leading U.S. newspapers.
   Pat Buchanan is the conservative talks show co-host of a CNN
program called "Crossfire" on which he combatively debates with
his guests, who usually are more politically liberal that he is.
Four years ago, Mr. Buchanan beat George Bush in the New
Hampshire primary, and caused a good deal of anxiety in the Bush
camp before being swept away by the sitting president's
popularity in many other states.
   This year, however, the presumed Republican favorite, Senator
Bob Dole, has been having trouble communicating his message to
the voters, so Mr. Buchanan has taken an early lead with his New
Hampshire win. However, the feisty Republican challenger is
controversial because many of his newspaper columns and public
statements have been perceived as anti-semitic and possibly even
a racist. And his isolationist trade views run counter to
established Republican policy. We begin our sampling in New
England, where Tuesday's primary took place, and where Boston's
"Christian Science Monitor," notes:
   "The fog that enveloped New England the morning after the New
Hampshire primary seemed an appropriate illustration of the
results of Tuesday's balloting. Much is made of the fact that Pat
Buchanan 'won', and he deserves credit for his achievement. But
27 percent of the vote is not the heart and soul of the
Republican Party... [Mr.] Buchanan has a strong platform. But his
strength may also be his weakness. Most conservatives do not
endorse his populist economic proposals, and many Republicans
have noted... His economic isolationism and protectionism often
sound as if he is reading from an AFL-CIO [American Federation of
Labor-Congress of Industrial Organizations] script."
   In the Midwest, "The Chicago Tribune" calls Mr. Buchanan an
"invitation to a disaster," comparing him to another presidential
aspirant outside the main stream of his party:
   "In 1972, the Democratic Party gave its presidential
nomination to George McGovern, a maverick who appealed to a vocal
minority... But who struck most as a radical... The result was a
landslide defeat, from which the party has never fully recovered.
A similar fate may await Republicans if they persist in their
dalliance with Pat Buchanan, regardless of whether he actually
gets the nomination... It is time for Republicans voters to take
a long look at where their party is headed and ask if it [that
destination] is really where they want to go."
   Across town, "The Chicago Sun-Times" tries to put the Buchanan
victory in perspective this way:
   "...Here are a few numbers to keep in mind: More than four
times as many people typically vote in a cook county [Chicago and
its close-in suburbs] primary than in the 'entire' state of New
Hampshire... A small number of people have expressed their views
at the beginning of what is a lengthy process. Their views
shouldn't be counted as more important than those who express
them in the middle or at the end of the process."
   Nevertheless, in California, "The Los Angeles Times" finds the
results disturbing, and calls Mr. Buchanan "an extremist in
moderate clothing."
   "Part of [Mr.] Buchanan's appeal is that he rightly pinpoints
Americans' anxieties about job security and unease about where
the country is going. The danger is that all too often he winds
up assigning blame to those he considers 'the other': The
immigrants, the homosexuals, the feminists, the media, the
non-Christians, the liberals, the intellectuals, wall street. All
these others add up to a lot of Americans... He's running strong
right now, and that's making a lot of people, perhaps Republicans
especially, nervous for good reason."
   Returning briefly to the Midwest, "The St. Louis
Post-Dispatch" says this is the "task ahead for Bob Dole" and
adds some advice:
   "...Mr. Dole will probably start throwing red meat [making
oratorical concessions] to the far right, as he has done on other
occasions when he thought he needed to placate radical
Republicans. But that won't lure people away from Mr. Buchanan;
his supporters consist largely of single-issue voters and people
looking for someone to blame... What Mr. Dole needs to do is make
inroads on Lamar Alexander and Steve Forbes. Had they not been in
the race, Mr. Dole would have picked up a major share of their
votes and, hence, would have swamped Mr. Buchanan [in New
Hampshire]."
   A leading Texas daily, "The Houston Chronicle", warns
Americans to beware of rash judgments early on in the primary
campaign:
   "The gate has just opened, and the horse race of the moment
may be fun and fascinating, but the issues of good governance and
the various candidates' positions on those issues shouldn't be
overshadowed. At the risk of overstating the obvious, the horse
race is a mad dash, but we ride the governance for the long
haul."
   Once again in California, "The San Francisco Chronicle"
exclaims:
   "...[Mr.] Buchanan's ascension to serious contender for the
Republican presidential nomination has come about with a narrow,
often demagogic message that played to voters' fears about
foreign trade, immigration and social change. this
wolf-at-the-the-door strategy may be good for 27 percent of New
Hampshire voters, but is well short of a vision necessary to lead
a diverse nation of 260 million people in an increasingly
competitive and complex world. Yet now [Mr.] Buchanan is clearly
driving the agenda with his wedge-issues campaign. this is
neither helpful to the party nor the country."
   However, in Maine, "The Portland Press Herald" offers this
contrasting view:
   "Wrong or no, [Mr.] Buchanan tapped a deep root of
apprehension among the 'good men and women of middle America,' as
he called his supporters. Exit polls showed the election turning
on the economy, and [Mr.] Buchanan hit that theme harder than any
other candidate."
   We end this sampling where we began, in Boston. "Boston Globe"
columnist derrick Jackson, after pointing out Mr. Buchanan was
supported in the Louisiana primary by former Ku Klux Klan leader
David Duke, concludes a column on what he feels are Mr.
Buchanan's racist views by commenting:
   "Pat Buchanan's politics have us a heartbeat away from
political and civic suicide."
   ---------------

   ---------------
   RICHARD LUGAR CAMPAIGN

   DAVID SWAN
   SENATE

   This week's New Hampshire Republican primary election had some
surprising results. Not only did conservative commentator Pat
Buchanan win, but the contest did not force any of the candidates
to drop out of the race, even those who finished far behind. One
has reaffirmed his plan to keep on campaigning.
   Republican Senator Richard Lugar has been in office for nearly
twenty years. He is known as a leader on foreign affairs, and
helped write the bill that funds the destruction of the former
Soviet Union's nuclear weapons.
   So far, Mr. Lugar's experience has earned him no better than a
fifth-place finish in the hampshire primary. But he says he is
not ready to quit, when his party has just started to choose its
presidential candidate:
   "Less than one-tenth of one-percent of Republicans have
actually cast primary ballots this year. There should be ample
time for all the rest to be heard before a Republican nominee has
been decided."
   The field was shaken when Pat Buchanan won an upset victory in
New Hampshire. Mr. Lugar concedes his opponent's populist, trade
protectionist rhetoric has struck a nerve with the voters, who
worry about losing their jobs in a rapidly changing economy.
Still, he predicts Republicans will not pick Mr. Buchanan to run
against President Clinton:
   "My guess is they will choose somebody other than Pat Buchanan
for obvious reasons, namely, his ideas are not very good,
historically totally invalid."
   Mr. Lugar plans to focus his effort on the five other New
England states, which hold primaries early in March. While few
observers believe the Lugar campaign will catch fire, some say
Mr. Buchanan will prove to be too conservative.
   The other top candidates, Senate majority leader Bob Dole and
former Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander, are trying to portray
Mr. Buchanan as a right-wing extremist. In a western campaign
stop Thursday, Mr. Dole warned he would not only lose to Mr.
Clinton but would drag other Republicans down:
   "With a Buchanan candidacy we'd be lucky to hold on, to keep a
majority in the House (of Representatives) or the senate or state
legislatures or courthouses or anywhere else. This is a national
election."
   Mr. Buchanan rejects the charges, saying his rivals'
name-calling tactics will only hurt the party later. The next
primary election comes Saturday in the eastern state of Delaware,
with three western states voting Tuesday.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   BUCHANAN WIN RECASTS REPUBLICAN PRIMARY RACE 
   By David Pitts

   Manchester, New Hampshire -- Patrick Buchanan's narrow win in
the New Hampshire primary with 27 percent of the vote changes the
landscape of the race for the Republican nomination for
president, according to most experts who commented on the
results.
   Senator Bob Dole got 26 percent of the vote, Lamar Alexander
23 percent, Steve Forbes 12 percent, Richard Lugar five percent,
and Alan Keyes three percent.
   Veteran observer Kevin Phillips said the Republican Party
could split as a consequence of the win. He forecast "a wrenching
experience" for the party as its establishment and majority wing
grapples with Buchanan's generally isolationist and protectionist
views. And according to Richard L. Berke of the New York Times,
Republicans are "worried that Mr. Buchanan could fracture the
party -- and cripple its prospects to win back the White House --
because of his support of a protectionist trade policy and an
isolationist foreign policy and what many of his detractors
describe as his trail of racist remarks." Many predict that
Republicans will join forces and choose to support either Bob
Dole or Lamar Alexander in order to keep Buchanan from
splintering the party.
   For example, General Colin Powell, the retired chairman of the
Joint Chiefs of Staff, joined with other Republican colleagues to
try to stop Buchanan in his bid for the Republican Presidential
nomination. In doing so, Powell broke the silence he had kept
since he announced last November that he would not seek the
nomination. Powell said that "Pat sometimes gives out messages
that are of intolerance, which I think is very unfortunate. This
is not the time for intolerance. This is the time for inclusion."
   Why did Buchanan win? According to ABC News exit polls, 23
percent of the New Hampshire voters said they strongly valued
candidates who stood up for their beliefs, 15 percent thought a
vision for the future was most important, and 14 percent said
they voted on the basis of who appeared most likely to be able to
beat President Clinton. Buchanan was cited as the candidate who
stood up most strongly for his beliefs.
   According to CBS News, only nine percent of voters thought Bob
Dole has a vision. Dole and Steve Forbes, who finished in fourth
place, were both hurt by their perceived use of negative
advertising, according to the polls. Alexander, who was third in
the race, benefited strongly from votes cast by independents. The
New Hampshire primary is open, and not restricted to members of
one or the other party. That is not the case in some upcoming
primary races.
   As far as issues are concerned, "the economy and jobs" was
cited as the most important for voters, according to exit polls.
Buchanan tapped into that concern during the campaign by
repeatedly referring to what he called the export of U.S. jobs
overseas as a result of trade treaties and to the economic threat
posed by low wage earners in poorer countries, particularly
Mexico.
   In his statement after the voting, Senator Dole said, "We are
engaged in a fight for the heart and soul of the Republican
Party," which he said should be the party of hope, not the party
of fear. "We must be an inclusive party," he remarked, invoking
the memory of Abraham Lincoln, the Republican president who
emancipated the slaves. The Republican Party, Dole said, also
should be the party of economic growth and family values. These
issues will be the subject of debate over the next 30 days, he
predicted.
   Republican Senator Olympia Snow of Maine said that "I believe
we have to make sure that Bob Dole's message of inclusion
prevails. It's absolutely essential for the future of the
Republican party."
   --------------

   --------------
   THE NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY:ITS HISTORICAL AND PRESENT SIGNIFICANCE 
   By David Pitts

   The New Hampshire primary receives an inordinate amount of
media attention because it is the first primary in the nation and
therefore, the first test of voter preferences in the
presidential nomination races.
   However, it is important to keep in mind that New Hampshire
provides only 16 delegates to the Republican party convention
this year compared to 163 delegates provided by California, for
example.
   In the 1992 presidential election, former Senator Paul
Tsongas, a Democrat from Massachusetts, beat then Arkansas
Democratic Governor Bill Clinton in the Democratic primary by
nine percentage points. But Clinton went on to win the Democratic
nomination and was elected president. (Clinton faces no major
challengers for the nomination this year, and, therefore, the
limited number of democratic primaries are receiving little
attention. This marks the first time in twelve years and the
second time in thirty two years that major primary battles are
limited to only one party.)
   And, of course, former President George Bush defeated all the
Republican opponents for the nomination in the 1992 primary, but
lost to Clinton in the general election. Similarly, Buchanan's
win of the 1996 New Hampshire primary does not mean that he will
win either his party's nomination or the general election.
   A primary election is a unique American institution that
allows voters, rather than party activists and officials, to
choose the candidate who will represent a political party in a
general election -- either local state or federal. Critics
complain the New Hampshire primary gives conservative candidates
an edge since voters there, particularly in the Republican
primary, are predominantly conservative. Many election watchers
predict that the Republican party will rally their support behind
either Bob Dole or Lamar Alexander because Pat Buchanan is too
far to the right to win the election even if he did get his
party's nomination.
  --------------
  
  --------------
  THE VALUES OF THE "BIG THREE"? 
  By Michael J. Bandler

   What kinds of values do Dole, Buchanan and Alexander represent
to the American public? How are they alike and different in what
they stand for?
   Having served for several decades as a leader of the national
legislature, Dole represents a deliberative mainstream
conservative voice that seeks to balance a responsible federal
government with state and local interests. Like the other two
challengers, he supports shifting to the states much of the
responsibility for controlling crime and bolstering and funding
education. He has sharply faulted the entertainment industry in
recent months, calling upon it to "recognize and shoulder" its
responsibility to exercise self-restraint with regard to sex and
violence in its products.. At the same time, he believes America
has a role to play, as a nation, overseas, and he supports
foreign aid as a tool to promote freedom and democracy,
particularly in the Western Hemisphere and in Eastern Europe.
   Buchanan brings a sharply populist flavor, laced with
religious fervor, to the debate. He has actively sought the
overwhelming backing of religious conservatives. "We're going to
put back into its rightful place the true God of the Bible and we
will drive out of our public institutions the false gods of
secular humanism," he promised recently. His politics represent
not only the pro-life, patriotic and moral perspective of his
counterparts, but also a protectionist one, reflecting a
determination to focus the nation's attention on what happens
within its borders, on behalf of those living within those
boundaries. He would end all foreign aid, bar U.S. troops from
serving in United Nations forces, reconsider America's treaty
obligations and place a five-year moratorium on all legal
immigration to reduce the amount by nearly seventy-five percent.
   With a personal political history of having served as the
chief executive of a state and as a federal cabinet officer (he
was secretary of education during the Bush administration after
his years as governor of Tennessee), Alexander's principal focus
is also domestic. Although he moves in the same direction as Dole
and Buchanan in seeking to shift federal funding initiatives to
the state and local level, he diverges from both fellow
candidates in his emphasis on the need for "being willing to
accept personal responsibility for the consequences of our own
actions." In that vein, for instance, he counters Dole's
criticism of the media and Hollywood by calling upon people to
simply not attend certain movies, and to turn off the television
set rather than stay tuned to what one might consider offensive
programming. As for his specific policy concepts on welfare,
education and immigration --such as creating a new branch of the
military to patrol America's borders for illegal aliens and
substances -- they are, at the moment, policy works in progress.
   The three Republicans running neck-and-neck on the primary
trail and the Democratic president waiting to begin his
reelection campaign, provide Americans, and the world, a chance
to listen to the values messages emerging from each of the four
camps. At the same time, the candidates are listening carefully
-- through polls and media analysis -- to discern the values that
are of primary importance to the voters, the men and women who
will determine the outcome.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   FOREIGN POLICY NOT A BIG ISSUE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY

   DAVID PITTS
   MANCHESTER, NEW HAMPSHIRE

   U.S foreign policy has not been a salient issue in the New
Hampshire primary, judging by questions posed by voters and
statements made by candidates in the final days leading up to the
primary vote February 20.
   Polls over the weekend here were about as frequent as the
snowfalls, but most suggested that either Senator Bob Dole or
Patrick Buchanan could win the primary, with Lamar Alexander
surging in the latest polls. The margin of error in the polls
makes it too close to call ahead of time.
   It should be noted, however, that in the last days of the
campaign, an informal check of WMUR TV, the state's only
television station, indicated there were a far greater number of
Dole commercials than Buchanan or Alexander ads, which a Buchanan
campaign spokesperson explained was due to Dole's plentiful
supply of money.
   But whoever wins February 20, it will not be because of their
foreign policy views, says Patrick Devlin, author of "Political
Persuasion in Presidential Campaigns," and a communications
professor at Rhode Island University, in an interview. Devlin,
who has conducted a study of campaign commercials in New
Hampshire, said foreign policy "has barely surfaced in the
campaign with the exception of Patrick Buchanan's views on
immigration and unfair trade, and Senator Richard Lugar's
concerns about nuclear terrorism."
   In the candidates' forum February 15, Buchanan attacked the
GATT and particularly the NAFTA trade treaty, saying that Mexico
was a major source of illegal drugs coming into the United States
as well as illegal immigrants. He also said that NAFTA was
leading to the exports of U.S. job to companies south of the
border. Alan Keyes, one of the other candidates, also expressed
disagreement with NAFTA, calling it a "raw deal," for the United
States.
   Senator Robert Dole, who voted for GATT and NAFTA, defended
the treaties, but not the Clinton administration's handling of
them. He said he was in favor of "fair" trade deals. Dole, and
all the other Republican candidates, have denounced what they
have termed Buchanan's isolationist and protectionist views.
   Polling conducted by the Boston Globe, which is widely read in
New Hampshire, indicated Buchanan's views were resonating with
many voters in the state not because of his generally
isolationist foreign policy views, but because his ideas on trade
and social issues spoke to the general feeling of economic
insecurity in the state, despite the fact that economic
conditions are much better here than they were four years ago.
"Buchanan's Economic Message Resonates with Anxious Voters," read
the front page headline in the Boston Globe over the weekend.
   In campaign appearances, Buchanan repeatedly says, "How can
Americans earning $10 or $12 an hour be expected to compete with
workers overseas earning a dollar an hour." Buchanan voiced the
same kind of economic nationalism when he unsuccessfully ran
against President Bush in the last New Hampshire primary in 1992.
However, his campaign theme was undermined when it was revealed
he drove a Mercedes rather than a U.S.-made car. This year,
Buchanan is driving an American car.
   President Clinton addressed the issue of economic insecurity
not only in New Hampshire but throughout the nation when he flew
here February 17. In one of the speeches he gave -- in Rochester
-- Clinton said that Americans are feeling insecure, despite
generally good economic numbers, because they are dealing with "a
change more profound than anything the American people have
experienced in a hundred years," referring to the transition to
an information economy and global economic competition. Clinton,
however, appealed to voters to reject cynicism and solutions that
would divide the nation. "The siren song of simple answers, that
are wrong, are our opponent," he remarked.
   Buchanan is also gaining support because of his conservative
views on social issues, including abortion, school prayer, and
crime. But reports indicate that members of the Christian
Coalition, many of whom backed Buchanan in the Iowa caucuses, are
not as strong a factor in New Hampshire.
   Most analysts, however, said the association of two of his
aides with white extremist groups did not seem to be hurting him
with his base of support in the state. Nevertheless, Dole
campaign commercials labeling Buchanan "an extremist," were being
frequently aired during the closing hours of the campaign.
   Although the candidates have not focused on specific foreign
policy issues in their appearances around the state, their
campaigns did put out material indicating their views on U.S.
policy in Bosnia in particular. Of all the major candidates, only
Dole and Lugar supported the Clinton administration's deployment
of U.S. troops there.
   In his final campaign appearances, Dole emphasized his
experience and leadership. He received a boost when the Boston
Globe endorsed him February 18. Lamar Alexander stressed his
relative youth and new ideas, particularly his proposal for a new
branch of the military to control the entry of illegal drugs and
immigrants into the United States.
   Steve Forbes, by contrast, returned to his proposal for a flat
tax that had worked so well for him when he first announced his
candidacy.
   The Manchester Union Leader endorsed Patrick Buchanan. The
Sunday Monitor Concord, however, said Buchanan is "a demagogue
who is unfit to be the Republican nominee." Polls in the state
have indicated Buchanan's negatives are high -- 55 percent -- but
in a multi-candidate race that may not be so important.
   Whatever the final outcome of the vote February 20, Devlin, as
well as other experts, emphasize that the foreign policy views of
the candidates will not have been a key determinant of who came
out on top.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   NEW HAMPSHIRE VOTERS NOT TYPICAL OF NATION AT LARGE

   DAVID PITTS
   MANCHESTER, NEW HAMPSHIRE

   "Live Free or Die" is the motto of this fiercely independent
state. It is emblazoned on the license plate of every automobile
here, so it is hard not to get the message.
   Talk to almost anyone in New Hampshire and you'll hear strong
opinions not only about the candidates competing for the
Republican nomination this year, but also about the state's
famous primary, the first in the nation. The people here think
their primary is a good way to select a party's nominee and enjoy
the attention they get from both reporters and candidates because
their primary is first.
   But leading experts in this New England state contend that
although a primary is a very democratic way to select a party's
nominee, the fact that such a small, unrepresentative state as
New Hampshire is first can distort the process. "Many political
scientists, such as myself, would prefer a series of regional
primaries, or even a national primary," remarked James Shoch,
assistant professor of government at Dartmouth College in
Hanover, New Hampshire, in an interview.
   "That way, the people of states that are more reflective of
the entire population of the country would have an upfront say in
the early results, which can be so critical," Shoch added.
   Shoch said overseas observers should keep in mind that New
Hampshire is "an overwhelmingly white state that is much more
conservative than the rest of the nation. The candidates whose
views are well supported in the voting here on February 20 may
not necessarily be well supported by Republican voters
nationally, and even more so, all voters nationally," he
stressed.
   According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, New Hampshire is
97.3 percent white, whereas the nation is only 75.6 percent
white. Almost ten percent of persons in New Hampshire live below
the poverty line, but the figure is over 15 percent in the nation
at large. Only 60 percent of people in New Hampshire live in
cities compared to almost 80 percent of Americans as a whole.
   Despite this, however, New Hampshire is likely to remain the
first primary in the election season for some years to come. The
state passed a law vowing it would always be the first state to
hold a primary, and jealously guards the right for its voters not
only to be first, but also to have as wide a choice as possible.
   State law says anyone can have his or her name placed on the
ballot by paying a $1,000 filing fee. Already, 22 Republicans, 21
Democrats, and two Libertarians have done just that. But most are
given little chance of attracting broad support. As of just
before primary day, there were eight Republican hopefuls given a
chance of winning more than one percent of the vote with late
polls giving Senator Bob Dole, Patrick Buchanan, former Tennessee
Governor Lamar Alexander, and businessman Steve Forbes the best
chance of doing well.
   But the Republican candidates did not have the airwaves all to
themselves during the last weekend before the primary vote.
President Clinton flew into the state for the second time this
month even though he faces no serious opposition in the
Democratic primary. But the voters here still expected him --
president or no president -- to make the obligatory pilgrimage to
ask for their support.
   The weather, traditionally the biggest determinant of voter
turnout, is predicted to be good for primary day. But turnout
this year could be affected by a little publicized change in New
Hampshire law. This will be the first primary in which
unregistered voters can appear at the polls, instantly register,
and then vote.
   New Hampshire was the ninth state to be admitted to the union
on June 21, 1788. It ranks 40th in population among the 50 states
-- with just over one million people, fewer than live in many
large cities. Most are white. Only a few thousand residents of
the state are black or Hispanic.
   The state capital is Concord, but the largest city is
Manchester, home of the state's influential conservative
newspaper, The Manchester Union Leader.
   New Hampshire is located on the upper Atlantic seaboard --
bordered on the north by Quebec, Canada; on the east by Maine and
the Atlantic Ocean; on the south by the state of Massachusetts;
and on the west by the Connecticut River and the state of
Vermont. The state was named by Captain John Mason for the county
of Hampshire in his native England.
   The people here always have evidenced an independent spirit --
and not only in their elections. During the Revolutionary War,
New Hampshire was the first of the 13 colonies to declare
independence from England.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   PRE-ELECTION POLLING INCREASING, ESPECIALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE

   DAVID PITTS
   MANCHESTER, NEW HAMPSHIRE

   The number of polls taken before U.S. elections is increasing
significantly, including here in New Hampshire, Kelly Myers,
director of the polling center at the University of New
Hampshire, said in a news conference February 19. The reason is
that "the proliferating number of news organizations each want
exclusive polls, and they all are very interested in what voters
think in the first primary state," he added.
   Kelly, whose polls appear in the Boston Herald, a newspaper
widely read in the southern part of New Hampshire, said the
various polling organizations generally do not vary widely in
terms of results since they all use similar scientific procedures
with similar margins for error.
   His latest poll results just prior to the election, indicated
a tight, three-way race between Senator Bob Dole, Patrick
Buchanan, and Lamar Alexander for the top spot, but so did most
polls, he explained. The results showed that Dole and Alexander
"were considered to have the best chance of beating President
Clinton in the general election in November. But Buchanan was
considered to be the most issue-oriented candidate even among
those who disagree with him."
   The problem is that the public, and sometimes news
organizations, misinterpret results, Kelly explained. For
example, he said that the polling in New Hampshire revealed a
large number of undecided voters just prior to the election -- as
large as 18 percent, and a whopping 57 percent told his pollsters
they could change their mind before actually voting. This margin
is sufficiently large enough to make the predicted outcome
unreliable; that often gets lost in news accounts, he added.
   When conducting polls, it is "very important to distinguish
between least likely voters and most likely voters, and between
results based on a low turnout scenario and a high turnout
scenario," Kelly remarked. In general, the turnout for primary
elections "is low, but that is not the case in New Hampshire
where traditionally it has been above 50 percent," he noted.
   Based on his experience of polling in prior New Hampshire
primary elections, Kelly said that it is important to understand
that Republican voters in this state "are different than
elsewhere. They are more libertarian and less concerned with
social issues. A majority are pro-choice, for example, and only
17 percent identify themselves as born-again Christians compared
to 39 percent of Republican voters in the rest of the country."
   Kelly predicted a large number of independent voters would
cast their ballot in the Republican primary this year because
President Clinton has no significant opposition in the Democratic
primary. This, too, will impact the results, he added.
   On the question of endorsements, Kelly said that they always
are sought by politicians seeking office, but polling data
indicates voters are not significantly swayed by them. Dole,
however, has been particularly eager for nedorsements in this
campaign. Senator Phil Gramm, who dropped out of the race after a
poor showing in the Iowa caucuses, flew here over the weekend to
endorse Dole at a campaign rally.
   Asked if voters are unduly influenced by polls -- a factor
that has caused some countries to ban polling results just prior
to elections -- Kelly said, "it is extraordinarily unlikely. That
can be proved by the fact that they are so often wrong. Media
coverage in general is a much bigger factor."
   Kelly said that polling, like mass media coverage in general,
has become part of the democratic process in the United States.
All the trends are toward more not less, he added.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   TELEVISION A BIG FACTOR IN 1996 NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY

   DAVID PITTS
   MANCHESTER, NEW HAMPSHIRE

   Television advertising is playing a much larger role than
usual in the New Hampshire primary this year, according to
experts familiar with the state.
   In an interview, Brian Sansoni, the press spokesperson for
Representative Charles Bass, one of New Hampshire's two
Republican Representatives, said that traditionally New
Hampshire, a small state, "is the home of door-to-door
campaigning by the candidates and the town hall meeting where
voters get the chance to personally question the presidential
hopefuls."
   But millionaire businessman Steve Forbes "focused his campaign
on television advertisements because he does not accept federal
dollars and is therefore freed from the limits imposed on
candidates who do," Sansoni remarked. "This forced other
candidates to pay more attention to television, although
television clearly has not been as critical as Forbes hoped," he
added.
   Sansoni, who is an expert on past New Hampshire primaries and
who this year is in the state with Congressman Bass campaigning
for Senator Bob Dole, said that there is an additional reason why
television is more important this year.
   Although New Hampshire still holds the first primary, "many
other states have frontloaded the dates of their primaries,
causing a major change in the way candidates have campaigned
here. Door-to-door campaigning is still important, but candidates
have relied much more on television commercials to get their
message across because they have had to spend time in other,
larger states whose primaries are occurring this year very soon
after New Hampshire," he added.
   After New Hampshire, the next primary is in Delaware on
February 24. On February 27, there are three primaries -- in
Arizona, North Dakota, and South Dakota. South Carolina's primary
is March 2. But on March 5, there are no less than eight
primaries occurring on the same day -- in Colorado, Connecticut,
Georgia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and
Vermont. The New York primary, the second largest in the nation,
is on March 7,less than a month from now. Other states have moved
up the date of their primaries to effectively prevent the
nomination from being locked up before their voters go to the
polls, said Sansoni.
   No less than 23 states -- out of a total number of 41 states
that have primaries -- will hold them in March this year. Almost
80 percent of the Republican delegates to the party's convention
will be selected by the end of March, according to political
analyst Stephen Wayne. The momentum for the winner of the New
Hampshire primary leading into the big primaries in March cannot
be underestimated, he added.
   That may be why there are many more television commercials in
this primary than there were four years ago, according to Patrick
Devlin, an expert on television and politics. Devlin said that
$900,000 was spent by all the candidates in the 1992 primary.
This year, $5.2 million was spent.
   Primary elections, "a unique U.S. institution born in the era
of political reform at the beginning of the twentieth century,"
according to Encyclopedia Americana, are becoming increasingly
important in American politics. The result, experts say, is that
voters are gaining more influence while the power of party bosses
and organizations is declining.
   A primary election is held to allow voters to choose the
candidate who will represent a political party to run in a
general election -- either local, state, or federal. A primary
may be either open -- allowing any registered voter in a state to
vote for a candidate to represent a political party -- or closed,
allowing only registered voters who belong to a particular
political party to vote for a candidate from that party to run in
a general election.
   The data indicates that, although there has been an enormous
increase in the number of states holding primary elections for
state or federal office in recent years, they are by no means
universal. In some states, candidates are selected at caucuses
and conventions by party activists and officials, as they were in
Louisiana and Iowa earlier this month.
   But most states now hold primary elections to choose party
nominees. Minnesota authorized the first statewide primary in
1899, while Florida introduced the first presidential primary in
1901, sources indicates. In 1912, 13 states held primaries.
   As recently as 1960, it was still not possible to win the
nomination with just primary victories alone. In that year,
Senator John Kennedy swept the Democratic party primaries "to
prove his vote-getting ability," to skeptical party bosses
concerned about his liberalism and Catholicism. But there was
much wheeling and dealing at the party convention before Kennedy
secured his party's nomination for president. Even as late as
1968, Hubert Humphrey locked up the Democratic nomination at the
party convention without entering any primaries at all.
   But the number of states holding primaries gradually increased
and by 1992 there were 40 primaries, many held in key states
across the country. Now a candidate running for his party's
nomination for president, or other high office, can effectively
secure the nomination before the party convention, thus bypassing
the party bosses and machinery. The result has been a major shift
of power toward the voter and away from party officials, say
experts.
   However, not everyone applauds the increasing importance of
primary elections in selecting candidates to represent political
parties. Party pros say that voters are not always knowledgeable
enough to choose competent candidates to represent the political
parties they favor and that the quality of leadership has
deteriorated since the power of political party organizations has
declined.
   But few here in the granite state share that view. The people
of New Hampshire enjoy their ability to have a major impact on
the party's nomination and they reject the view that their state
is untypical and therefore should not wield such influence.
   "People here love to meet the candidates," Sansoni said. "They
like to make their own judgments. They're not swayed by media
hype. The average person is interested in substance," he added.
Sansoni said his boss, Representative Bass, has found that to be
particularly true this year, with major concern being expressed
by voters about the overall direction of U.S. policy, especially
domestic policy.
   New Hampshire's other Representative is Bill Zeliff. The
state's two U.S. senators are Robert Smith and Judd Gregg. All
are Republican and actively supported Dole, with the exception of
Smith who supported Texas Senator Phil Gramm before he dropped
out of the race after he failed to do well in the Iowa and
Louisiana caucuses.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   TWO REPUBLICANS DOUBT TRADE TO BECOME MAJOR ELECTION ISSUE

   BRUCE ODESSEY
   WASHINGTON

   Two Republicans predict that trade will not become a major
U.S. election issue this year, but one of them expects
controversy raised by presidential candidate Pat Buchanan will
prevent Congress from passing any trade bills this year.
   "It's possible it could become an issue in the next few weeks
as long as Buchanan stays very active in the race -- as it looks
like he's going to, at least for a while longer," said
Representative Jim Kolbe, a free-trade Republican from Arizona.
   Denounced as an isolationist and protectionist, Buchanan has
advocated imposing 10-percent tariffs for goods from Japan and
20-percent tariffs on goods from China, as well as withdrawing
from the World Trade Organization and the North American Free
Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
   Kolbe, one of NAFTA's strongest supporters in Congress,
predicted the Republican presidential nomination would go to one
of the mainstream Republicans candidates, not Buchanan.
   "Can he have an influence on issues such as trade?" Kolbe
said. "The answer is, yeah, I think he can."
   Kolbe has been pressing for Congress to renew fast-track
authority for the president to negotiate extension of NAFTA to
Chile as well as other trade agreements, but expects little if
any trade legislation to pass this year.
   "I think we've all but given up hope on fast-track extension,"
he said. "Nobody's going to want to deal with that given Pat
Buchanan's attacks here."
   He called Buchanan's politics shrewd for drawing together
support from social conservatives on issues like abortion and
from disgruntled workers -- "lunch-bucket populists," he calls
them -- on issues like trade.
   "It's a very powerful emotional argument that these jobs are
being shipped overseas and we've got to stop that," Kolbe said.
"He gets the social fears and the economic fears -- he brings
these very disparate elements together."
   A Buchanan trade policy would result in a devastating
contraction in world trade, he said.
   "He says on the one hand he wants to stop many imports from
coming in, and on the other hand he wants to use the tariffs as a
revenue source for the federal government," Kolbe said. "So which
is it?"
   Now a scholar at the Brookings Institution in Washington, Bill
Frenzel was a champion of free trade in a long career as
Republican congressman from Minnesota. His view is that most
Republicans are still free traders.
   He also doubts that the trade issue will persist as an
election issue.
   "The fact that Mr. Buchanan has hit it so hard and that his
views are so diametrically opposed to those of the vast majority
of economists has caught the attention of the people in the
press," Frenzel said.
   "If you look at the polls, however, as to why people vote for
Mr. Buchanan that does not seem to be a compelling issue for more
than a small percentage of the people," he said.
   More than half of those polled said the most important reason
for their support for Buchanan was his opposition to abortion, he
said.
   "It is true that the crowds of the true believers cheer when
he talks about building a wall around the United States," Frenzel
said, "but it does not seem to attract a lot of people. ...
Nevertheless, it's scary."
   Americans always poll ambivalently on the subject, he said.
   "Most of them believe that free trade is the right way to go,"
Frenzel said, "but if you poll them on whether they should
protect American jobs from awful foreign laborers, they always
say, 'Of course we should.'"
   A Buchanan trade policy would invite retaliation against the
United States and some reduction in international trade flows, he
said.
   "Certain countries couldn't get their stuff into the United
States, they would reciprocate," Frenzel said. "They're not
dummies."
   ---------------

   ---------------
   NEW HAMPSHIRE/WHAT NEXT?

   JIM MALONE
   MANCHESTER, NEW HAMPSHIRE

   Political commentator Pat Buchanan has won a narrow victory in
the New Hampshire primary, but that does not mean that he is
about to clinch the Republican presidential nomination. In the
past, the New Hampshire primary has often proved crucial in U.S.
presidential election campaigns.
   Pat Buchanan won in New Hampshire, but it was close. Senator
Dole, the man most people thought would easily win the Republican
presidential nomination just a few months ago, was a close
second. And, just behind him was former Tennessee governor Lamar
Alexander, who is already calling on Bob Dole to drop out of the
race.
   But that is not likely to happen anytime soon. With the New
Hampshire results, it is clear there are now three viable
candidates in the Republican race. And, do not forget magazine
publisher Steve Forbes. He finished in fourth place, but he is
spending his own money and he could stay in the race for quite a
while.
   The Republican race now moves south and west. Over the next
week Delaware and Arizona will hold primaries and, in two weeks,
the campaign heads into the deep south. South Carolina holds its
primary March second and, on March 12th, the candidates face an
electoral gauntlet which is known as "Super Tuesday", primaries
in seven states including the big prizes of Florida and Texas.
   Pat Buchanan may have a slight advantage in the short term. He
can count on solid support from conservative Republicans,
especially those voters who care most about social issues like
abortion and moral values. Bob Dole and Lamar Alexander will
battle for moderate Republican voters who tend to worry more
about the budget deficit and returning power to state and local
governments.
   Because social conservatives are such an important
constituency within the Republican party, Mr. Buchanan can rely
on a base of support for some time. But many Republicans insist
his views are too extreme and that he has little chance of
becoming the party's nominee. That would mean that either Senator
Dole or Lamar Alexander will have to emerge as the candidate of
moderate Republicans. Whoever wins that battle would then go on
to take on Pat Buchanan, one on one.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY KIDS VOTING PROGRAM

   NEAL LAVON
   MANCHESTER, NH

   Some of the voters who cast their ballots in the new Hampshire
presidential primary election this Tuesday may have looked a
little young. That's because they are. A nationwide program to
encourage young Americans to take part in the electoral process
and increase adult voter turnout was in full swing during the New
Hampshire primary. Kids showed their parents and teachers that
voting and the electoral process is "cool".
   More than four thousand students in Manchester schools have
been participating in a program called "Kids Voting-USA." Kids
Voting, USA, based in the western state of Arizona, was designed
to increase adult turnout in U.S. elections by involving children
and their parents in the voting process.
   And what better state to launch a pilot program than new
hampshire, where presidential aspirants have conducted campaigns
for the state's crucial first presidential primary election.
   Lindsay Shearer is the New Hampshire project manager for the
"Kids Voting" program. She says the project, first started in
1988, shows that when children take part in the political
process, adult participation soars:
   "We have discovered that in communities where kids voting
exists, adult voter turnout has increased anywhere between three
and nine percent."
   Several students from West High School in Manchester, New
Hampshire, received training in the electoral process during
their participation in "Kids Voting." They worked at campaign
headquarters, often with the candidates themselves, and
definitely formed opinions about modern politics in the media
age.
   Tim Litvin, a junior at West High, who worked for President
Clinton, thought the negative campaigning so prevalent here was
disappointing:
   "It was kind of weird to see how the president kind of took a
back burner to all the Republicans out there. That made me kind
of angry because I'm a Democrat. It seems like politics just gets
to be a kind of mudslinging over and over and over, so that kind
of got to me a little bit."
   High School Junior Lauren Jancaitis (pron: Jan-kite-us) worked
in the Republican primary campaign of Pat Buchanan. As Mr.
Buchanan's campaign climbed in the polls, she says his
headquarters became especially interested in "Kids Voting":
   "They were very helpful to us. They wanted to talk to us, they
knew that we were going to be getting attention because this was
the first program of its kind, they knew that we were going to be
talking to the younger people and we were going to be reaching
some of the 18-year-olds who were going to vote and they knew we
were going to be talking to our parents as well."
   The students in the Manchester schools will be voted in a
special election of their own in the New Hampshire primary, right
alongside their parents. High school junior Kelly Pearson says
she believes it's important for kids to become involved in
politics for a very practical reason:
   "I think it's good to get kids interested because this is your
future and you will have a decision. In the next four years,
everybody in this school will like be voting for real, and I
think it's important to get them interested now because that's
where it starts."
   Carolyn Somma, student council advisor and the coordinator for
"Kids Vote" in West High School, was fairly bursting with pride
in recalling the enthusiasm and the depth of participation by
manchester's young people, particularly one young fan of
Republican candidate Lamar Alexander and another grade school
supporter of former candidate Phil Gramm:
   "A little kindergartner from the West-Side school greeted his
grandmother at the door with a "Lamar" sign. That's kindergarten!
"Lamar!" "Lamar!", he tells her. But his third-grade sister
proceeded to tell her grandmother that it was more important that
she vote for Phil Gramm because Gramm was better, and I thought
that was just phenomenal."
   Carolyn Somma says "Kids Voting" has been a tremendous success
and source of excitement in West High School and other schools in
manchester.
   Among "Kids Voting" participants in Dixville Notch, New
Hampshire, where the adults voted at midnight on Tuesday, Senator
Bob Dole and President Clinton tied with eight votes apiece.
Lamar Alexander got seven, Malcolm S. "Steve" Forbes got six, Pat
Buchanan four, and Senator Richard Lugar, one.
   Also receiving votes were former basketball player Larry Bird
and actor John Travolta.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   LAMAR ALEXANDER POST NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY SPEECH TRANSCRIPT

   NEW HAMPSHIRE

   This is the transcript of a speech by Republican candidate and
former Tennessee governor Lamar Alexander, who was third in the
New Hampshire primary.
   Alexander: "...I believe there is one less (candidate) than
there was (before tonight). I believe Senator Dole, after Iowa
and after his showing tonight, has shown he does not have enough
ideas to base a campaign about the future. So the debate will be
between my ideas, fresh, conservative ideas to build a picture of
the future, to beat Bill Clinton and Pat Buchanan's ideas. I look
forward to that contest. I will have more to say about those
ideas but as long as we're going to have an idea-contest let's
have a couple of Republicans in the contest that have ideas. We
have fresh conservative ideas, let's put them up against Mr.
Buchanan's ideas. Let's do it in a respectful way, and let's go
across this country for the future.
   (Alexander): "I've one more thing to say. I believe if we
could have lowered the voting age, we could have even won (the
primary) here in New Hampshire. But this is only the first
primary and there are many more to come. And what I think America
can learn from the young people of New Hampshire and those in
Iowa, who have overwhelmingly supported our campaign, is this:
There is only one issue, what kind of future will we have in this
country. We can build a conservative vision of this future and
the message you are sending across the country is that the way to
build that future is to remember your ABC's.." (Crowd chants
Alexander slogan: Alexander beats Clinton)
   ---------------

   ---------------
   NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY: DIXVILLE NOTCH

   NEIL LAVON
   NEW HAMPSHIRE

   Voters in the remote town, Dixville Notch, made their choices
at midnight Tuesday, just as they have done since 1960's.
   Senator Bob Dole won decisively in the Republican primary here
in Dixville Notch, picking up 11 votes. Former Tennessee governor
and federal official Lamar Alexander finished second with five
votes. Television commentator Patrick Buchanan picked up two
votes, while publisher Malcolm Forbes and Senator Richard Lugar
got one vote, each.
   Dixville Notch was one of the number of small New Hampshire
villages which challenged to be first with voting and with
results. Because the town had its own telephone company and
communications facilities, its totals would reach the news wire
services ahead its competitors. In 1964, the American news media
bestowed the distinction of casting the first votes in the
primary to Dixville Notch.
   Dixville Notch is mostly Republican voters. It offers a mixed
record of predicting party nominees and presidential winners in
the New Hampshire primary. Since 1964, seven of the victors in
Dixville Notch's eight Republican ballots have gone on to capture
their party's nominations. Five of those went on to win the
presidency.
   On the Democratic side, Dixville Notch's handful Democratic
voters have only voted for two of the last seven nominees of
their party. Only one, Jimmy Carter in 1976, went on to win the
presidency.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   CAMPAIGN '96: THE WOMEN'S VOTE

   MARILYN SILVEY
   WASHINGTON

   It's being said that women may hold the key to who is elected
president of the United States in November.
   Women comprise 51% of the American population, and are a
majority of the potential voters.
   Political analysts like to talk about a "gender gap" in the
United States - that is, a tendency that began about 25 years ago
for women to vote more often for democratic candidates than for
Republicans.  One recent poll of women showed President Clinton
beating Republican contender Robert Dole by 55 to 37 percent.
Another poll had a 15-point difference.
   But Republicans point out that the "gender gap" shown in polls
does not always show up in the ballot box. In 1984, President
Reagan, a Republican, won a majority of women's votes in his
successful re-election bid. And in 1994, a majority of white
women voted Republican for the first time ever.
   This year, the gender gap is less discussed than the question,
"will women vote?" In the 1994 elections, most women didn't.
   Irene Natividad is chairman of the "Women's Vote '96" project.
It's aimed at getting as many women to vote in November as voted
in the 1992 elections: 62 percent. According to Irene Natividad:
   "In the last election, only 38 percent of American women
voted."
   The Women's Vote project is financed by more than 110 national
women's organizations, a record number for such an effort,
including educational and political groups, business and labor
organizations, and women's rights groups. The project has begun a
media campaign to try to convince women that their votes can make
a difference. One of the magazine ads shows a woman without a
mouth. Says Natividad:
   "And it says, 'most politicians still think women should be
seen and not heard. In the last election, 54 million women
agreed.'"
   And then in smaller type it says, 'they gave up the power to
make an impact on crime, drugs, education, pollution, poverty,
health care and the homeless, the power to change their lives. On
November fifth, don't be one of the women no one hears. Make them
listen.'
   another campaign seeking to getting women to vote is called
the women's network for change. Sponsored by 40 national women's
organizations, it's led by the American Association of University
Women, whose director, Anne Bryant, says the aim is to show women
how the political process affects them:
   "AAUW's research is very clear that women will vote only if
they believe that the issues they care about, namely, their
families, education, their future, are impacted by an election."
   Ms. Bryant says most women say they don't trust politicians or
the media, but they do trust other women. So every other week,
the women's network is sending out to organization members, by
computers and fax machines, a one-page fact sheet telling what
the current Congress has done on a specific issue, such as
education, reproductive choice, or welfare. Again, the goal is to
reach beyond women who are members of the sponsoring groups, to
those who are not:
   "The concept of this is that you receive this fax and then you
put (post) it in your workplace, in the day care centers, in the
planned parenthood clinics, in the ywca centers, in synagogues,
in churches, in the places you volunteer and in the places you
work."
   A campaign to get black women to vote is being run by the
National Council of Negro Women, using leading African-American
athletes and entertainment figures to make media announcements on
the importance of voting. And the southwest voter registration
education project is conducting 200 voter registration drives
aimed at Hispanics, especially young people, according to
director Lydia Camarillo:
   "We are the youngest electorate of this country. Every year,
for example, in California, 150,000 young men and women that are
Latino turn 18 who are ready to vote if we just capture their
interest in this country's future."
   There are more voter efforts as well. The planned parenthood
federation has had its staff members at clinics all over the
country authorized to register to vote any eligible woman who
visits a clinic seeking pregnancy counseling. And groups of women
students on many university campuses are conducting voter
registration drives.
   Most of the current campaigns to get more women out to vote
this year are mobilized by women who are angry at the current
congress for cutting back women's rights and funding for such
so-called women's issues as education and aid to children. At a
recent national conference, women's vote project director Irene
Natividad said women's basic gains are now imperiled:
   "The challenge for us in 1996 is to get that women's vote out
as if our life depended on it, because it does."
   So this year, there is even more interest than usual in how
many women will vote, and in the effect the "Women's Vote" will
have.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   CLINTON CRITICIZES REPUBLICAN CAMPAIGN TACTICS

   DAVE BORGIDA
   WHITE HOUSE

   President Clinton, commenting directly on Republican campaign
tactics in the primary season so far, is denouncing what his
spokesman calls tactics that inflame racial hatreds. There have
been allegations Republican Pat Buchanan has engaged in such
tactics, but the Clinton White House is refusing to directly make
that charge. Still, a Clinton spokesman says there are elements
of the Buchanan campaign tactics that seem to be aimed at
dividing Americans.
   So far, President Clinton has been careful not to wade into
the Republican primary debate, preferring instead to allow the
candidates to fight among themselves and voters to sort it all
out.
   But Tuesday in a Washington speech, while he did not raise any
specific allegation against any particular campaign, the
president did express concern about divisive campaign tactics.
The president cited as an example the distribution of leaflets
focusing attention on Republican Senator Phil Gramm and his
Asian-American wife:
   "One of the men who wanted to replace me in the presidential
election this year had to undergo the agony of having leaflets
passed out against his Asian-American wife. That is wrong."
   Senator Gramm is now out of the Republican race.
   Some have charged those supporting the Buchanan campaign were
responsible for distributing the leaflets, a charge the campaign
denies.
   President Clinton made his comments at the swearing-in
ceremony of Kweisi Mfume, the new president of the oldest U.S.
civil rights group, the National Association for the Advancement
of Colored People.
   In explaining the president's concern about such tactics,
Clinton spokesman Mike McCurry says the president believes such
tactics only deepen the alienation some Americans feel about the
American political process:
   "Politics that inflame racial hatreds or prey upon prejudice,
or attempt to drive wedges through the American electorate, are
exactly the type of politics that so disgust Americans. The
president today was suggesting that that particular tactic
regardless of its origin is not the kind of campaigning that the
American people expect in this national election year."
   Mr. McCurry said the president is fully expecting and is
prepared for what is called "negative advertising" once the
general election campaign begins. Still, he would not rule out
that the president would respond to that by drawing distinctions
between his views and those of his as-yet-undetermined Republican
opponent.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   CAMPAIGNING AMERICAN STYLE

   DAVID PITTS
   NEW HAMPSHIRE MALL, MANCHESTER, NEW HAMPSHIRE

   The campaign bus rolled up to the mall entrance with eight
loudspeakers mounted on the roof blaring out a recording of "Last
Night," the 1960 hit by the Marquees, a popular singing group
back then.
   This time, it was Steve Forbes who exited the bus, getting in
one last campaign appearance on February 20, the day the people
of New Hampshire finally vote for the person they believe should
be the Republican nominee for president. But it could just as
easily have been any of the other candidates.
   In this age of pervasive electronic media, most campaign
appearances have a certain similarity. First, there is the crush
of cameramen who surround the candidate immediately he emerges.
Then, there is the shouting by reporters, each trying to get
their last question in before the campaign finally ends.
   As the candidate tries politely to respond, his handlers and
schedulers try to move him forward so that he can actually get to
meet the people instead of just the media. "Steve Forbes
absolutely insists on it," one of his handlers told me earnestly.
   Forbes finally makes it into the mall and into a MacDonald's
where a group of evidently mystified diners, apparently unaware
the candidate was coming, are agasp, not so much at seeing a real
live candidate, but at the gaggle of reporters who outnumber both
the diners and the candidate and his entourage.
   "What will you do about the loss of jobs," says one New
Hampshire voter who finally gets a chance to meet Forbes face to
face. "The key is to get new businesses started in the United
States. I'm committed to that," says Forbes.
   After answering a few more questions, Forbes goes to the
MacDonald's counter and orders a "Big Mac," french fries and a
soda for himself, and more food for some of his daughters who are
accompanying him for this appearance. "Oh, look; he's carrying
his own tray," says one fellow diner, evidently more intent on
looking on, than asking the candidate any questions. Forbes then
proceeds to eat his MacDonald's lunch, eagerly watched by about
100 reporters.
   "What do you think of all of this?" I asked a young woman
sitting nearby feeding her two young children.
   "It's kind of exciting; it's the American way," she responded.
"It's nice to see them in person, and not just on television."
   Many reporters, unable to get to the candidate to ask that one
important question, do the next best thing: interview each other.
Or, they try to grab one of the candidate's handlers, or better
still, a member of his family.
   "What is your father's message to people around the world,
outside the United States?" I asked his teenage daughter,
Roberta.
   "That he will show the way to greater economic growth in the
United States and the world," she responded. Then I was pushed
out of the way by some teenage boys who seemed much more
interested in talking to the candidate's daughters than the
candidate himself.
   An older woman, who knew Forbes was coming to the mall today,
traveled here from Bedford, a short distance away from
Manchester. "Oh, I know, it all seems a little ridiculous," she
said. "But politics needn't always be serious. Our democracy
always has been part show biz. But it's also a very serious
business for many people. And here in New Hampshire, at any rate,
we insist on seeing the candidates in person."
   ---------------

   ---------------
   ECONOMIC INSECURITY BIG ISSUE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY

   DAVID PITTS
   MANCHESTER, NEW HAMPSHIRE

   "The growing anger of the American people over layoffs,
corporate downsizing, and stagnant incomes" has emerged as the
big issue in the New Hampshire primary, Jerry Hagstrom, a
contributing editor to the National Journal and the author of
"Beyond Reagan: The New Landscape of American Politics," said in
a news conference here February 20.
   Hagstrom said Patrick Buchanan "has tapped into this issue
more than any other candidate, and even if he does not win the
primary, it is likely to work for him in other states,
particularly those that are doing less well economically than New
Hampshire."
   Evidence of just how much the economic insecurity issue has
taken hold here surfaced in the closing hours of the campaign as
both Senator Bob Dole and former Tennessee governor Lamar
Alexander belatedly sought to address the issue. The February 20
edition of the Manchester Union Leader, the state's leading
newspaper, carried a quote from Dole in prominent type on its
front page. "I didn't realize that jobs and trade and what makes
America work would become a big issue in the last few days of
this campaign," Dole remarked.
   "It is extraordinary that this message about jobs is happening
in the Republican Party," Hagstrom said. Traditionally, populist
views have been voiced by Democratic candidates, he added.
   However, Hagstrom pointed out that ever since 1972 when the
Democrats nominated Senator George McGovern to be their nominee
for president, the Republican Party has been attracting an
increasing number of working-class, blue-collar votes. It is
therefore not surprising that Buchanan should appeal to these
voters, many of whom have experienced economic difficulties, he
noted.
   Buchanan's appeal is also strong among voters who "remember an
older, more orderly society" in which traditional values were
more firmly held, Hagstrom remarked. A return to traditional
values also has been the major campaign theme of Alan Keyes, who
has received considerable attention here, but not much support,
as indicated by the polls.
   As far as the immigration issue is concerned, Hagstrom said it
has "not been very important in New Hampshire, but it could work
very well for Buchanan in Arizona." The Arizona primary is
February 27, right after the next primary in Delaware on February
24.
   Hagstrom stressed that the Arizona primary is closed so
independent voters, who tend to be less conservative, will not be
able to vote for Buchanan's opponents as they could in New
Hampshire. Buchanan's anti-immigration message "is likely to do
very well in Arizona," he noted.
   In addition to Arizona, the midwestern states of North and
South Dakota also hold their primaries on February 27. Hagstrom
said that although immigration is not a big issue there, trade
is. "NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) is very
unpopular because of Canadian grain imports into the U.S.,"
Hagstrom stressed. Buchanan has voiced strong opposition to both
the NAFTA and GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) trade
treaties.
   Looking down the road, immigration is likely to be an
important issue in the Texas primary on March 12 and in the
California primary on March 26, Hagstrom noted. These two states
are heavily populated and carry a delegate count of 123 and 163
respectively, compared to 16, for example, here in New Hampshire.
   Whatever the results of the New Hampshire primary, Hagstrom
predicted that Buchanan will stay in the race to fight on in
states that may be even be better for him than New Hampshire,
confounding the Republican Party establishment that is far from
comfortable with his economic message and some aspects of his
social message.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   FOREIGN POLICY VIEWS OF REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES DETAILED

   WASHINGTON

   Foreign policy has played a relatively small role to date in
the campaign for the 1996 Republican presidential nomination, as
discussion of domestic budget and social issues has dominated the
debate.
   Among those considered to be the leading contenders, only
Patrick Buchanan has placed much emphasis on foreign policy at
all -- and his thrust has been that the United States should
sharply cut back international ties, limit immigration, and tend
to its own business.
   Still, campaign statements, position papers and interview
comments suggest the views of each of the four -- former
Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander, columnist Buchanan, Senate
Majority Leader Robert Dole, and publisher Malcolm Steve Forbes
-- on a number of foreign policy issues.


   Here are their positions on a range of those issues:


   IMMIGRATION --

   Alexander -- Wants to strengthen policies aimed at keeping
illegal immigrants out of the country. Speaking in South Carolina
in January, declared that "legal immigrants are a national asset;
illegal immigrants are a problem that urgently needs solving. The
problem is compounded because we have immigration rules that
aren't enforced and a system for securing our borders that
doesn't work. Surely a country as technologically sophisticated
as ours should be able to secure the borders and keep track of
people who violate the terms of their visa."
   Buchanan -- Advocates a five-year moratorium on legal
immigration, allowing only spouses and children of citizens into
the country and slashing the level of legal immigration by almost
75 percent. Would deny children of illegal immigrants automatic
citizenship and opposes all financial support for illegal aliens.
Proposes construction of a security fence along a stretch of the
U.S.-Mexican border. In a presidential debate in Iowa in January
he backed his call for making English the official language of
the United States with a warning that this country "faces the
threat of Balkanization."
   Dole -- Summarizes his position as "fight illegal immigration
to preserve legal immigration." Dole "does not believe that those
who have entered our country illegally are entitled to government
welfare services," his campaign literature says. "He supports
strengthening the border patrol, aggressive enforcement of the
laws expediting the deportation of criminal aliens, and
streamlining the deportation process for all illegal aliens."


   UNITED NATIONS --

   Alexander -- Endorses limiting relationships with both the
United Nations and the North Atlantic Treaty Alliance to clearly
defined circumstances where U.S. interests are involved.
   Dole -- Believes that "American policy should support the
interests of the United States" as distinct from those of the
United Nations, and opposes placing American troops under U.N.
command. "He will ensure that America remains the world's only
superpower, willing and able to defend American interests," a
Dole position paper says.
   Forbes -- Has expressed concern over world organizations like
the United Nations controlling foreign policy and favors a less
prominent world role for the United States. A position paper
declares that "we must have a U.S., not a U.N., foreign
policy....We need a president who...understands that the wise and
judicious use of American power is now, and has been, the best
hope of the world."


   BOSNIA --

   Alexander -- Opposes the U.S. role in Bosnia and asserts that,
indeed, this country should never intervene in a civil war.
"Peacekeeping should be for places where there is peace, where
parties have agreed to a cease-MDINMDNMfire," he says in a
position paper. U.S. participation in such international efforts
should usually "be limited to providing command and control,
airlift and sealift, and logistical support."
   Buchanan -- Would withdraw U.S. peacekeeping troops if
elected. "Bosnia is a back-water civil war in a country that
didn't exist five years ago, where no vital American interest is
engaged. Get the American army out of there and let the Europeans
patrol their own borders and police their own civil wars for a
change," he told interviewer Larry King January 6.
   Dole -- In mid-1995, the Washington Post quoted him as
complaining that "despite the sacrifice and effort of its
soldiers, UNPROFOR (the United Nations peacekeeping force) has
failed to protect Bosnian civilians from murder, has failed to
protect safe areas, and has failed to protect its own troops...
Remove the troops, lift the embargo, give the Bosnians
the right to self-defense." In October he criticized the decision
to invite Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic to peace talks in
the United States; "I believe that this was a serious error in
judgment which calls into question the (Clinton) administration's
commitment to the prosecution of war criminals in the former
Yugoslavia," he said on the Senate floor. In December he voted to
support deployment of U.S. troops in Bosnia, explaining that "the
Congress cannot stop this troop deployment from happening....If
we would try to cut off funds, we would harm the men and women in
the military who have already begun to arrive in Bosnia....We
have only one president at a time. He is the commander in chief."
   Forbes -- Has opposed putting U.S. troops in Bosnia, saying
such a policy could produce "a disaster and a quagmire." He told
New Hampshire voters last October that "we can help keep the
peace (in Bosnia) through judicious use of air power and vigorous
diplomacy." But while that should have been done "two years ago,
four years ago," putting in ground troops "will simply give us
another Somalia, another Lebanon, another debacle." In an ABC-TV
"Nightline" interview, he advocated two approaches: "First, we
must make sure that the Bosnian Muslims have the arms to defend
themselves....And second, along the same lines, we should make it
very clear we will use NATO air power against a military
concentration, either from the Serbs or from the Croats."


   MIDDLE EAST --

   Alexander -- Says that, as president, he would support
continued U.S. aid to Israel and endorse moving the U.S. embassy
from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. He opposes deploying U.S. troops to
the Golan Heights until Syria has demonstrated "a commitment to
lasting peace."
   Buchanan -- Has strongly criticized Israel, especially for its
reliance on U.S. aid and its treatment of Palestinians.
Responding to charges that his position is based on
anti-semitism, he was quoted in 1990 in the Washington Post as
saying, "There are a lot of Americans who are very intimidated
from saying candidly what they think about the relationship with
Israel. They're afraid of just what's been done to me. They don't
want to bring a firestorm on themselves."
   Dole -- Sponsored a measure to move the U.S. embassy in Israel
to Jerusalem, shifting from opposition he had expressed as
recently as 1990 to recognizing Jerusalem as the capital.
   Forbes -- Supports Israel and opposes deployment of U.S.
troops to the Golan Heights absent a Syrian offer of agreement
specifics. "If you don't have a specific agreement in detail,
like we did have between the Israelis and the Egyptians, where
you only need some people with binoculars, then it's not a real
agreement and it's too shaky," he told "Nightline." "The real
ball is in (Syrian President) Asad's court. If he wants to have
an agreement, he can have it. The Israelis have made it quite
clear they're willing to make some very real concessions to get
an agreement," he said.


   FOREIGN AID --

   Buchanan -- Favors a complete end to foreign aid. In a
presidential debate in Iowa January 13, he declared, "I would
first and foremost begin the phase-out of foreign aid. We cannot
afford to balance the budgets of foreign countries when we cannot
balance our own. I would have canceled the $50,000 million
bail-out of Mexico. It's a corrupt government -- we shouldn't be
bailing them out when we don't bail out (financially distressed)
Orange County (in California)."


   TRADE --

   Alexander -- Describes himself in a position paper as "an
enthusiastic supporter" of both the North American Free Trade
Agreement (NAFTA) with Canada and Mexico and the broadly-based
General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). A position paper
terms the United States "the most competitive country in the
world" and argues that "we should pursue more free trade
agreements around the globe so that we have even greater access
to foreign markets."
   Buchanan -- Opposes both the NAFTA and GATT pacts, making that
opposition one of the centerpieces of his campaign. In a debate
in South Carolina in January, he urged "trade policies that put
our own country and our own people first for a change." He called
for a consumption tax on imported goods and said "every dime of
those tariffs will be used to cut the taxes on small business in
America....We need a trade hawk in the White House." He called
NAFTA, specifically, "a disaster" that has cost the U.S. economy
30,000 jobs, tying it's passage to a jump in illegal immigration
and the bailout of the faltering Mexican economy. "The people
that did NAFTA...owe the American people an apology," he told
interviewer Larry King in January.


   DEFENSE --

   Alexander -- In an interview with Larry King last November, he
promised, if elected, to "stop the freefall in defense spending"
and return to the milder cuts proposed by former President Bush.
An Alexander campaign position paper declares, "Our guidelines
governing intervention overseas need sharpening. The combat
readiness of our armed forces must take automatic precedence over
secondary missions. We are not the world's policeman and we
should not become one. American forces should participate
sparingly in missions other than 'combat' missions."
   Buchanan -- Endorses increased financial support for the
military, and supports construction of a missile defense system
for the United States.
   Dole -- "The mission of the American military is to defend our
freedom and protect our interests. America must lead, and
leadership requires the most capable, most advanced, and the best
trained military in the world. Readiness for today's challenges,
and readiness to deter or defeat challenges in the future,
require an enduring commitment to American military strength."
   Forbes -- Favors a strong defense with a continued presence in
both Asia and Europe. Has endorsed missile defense programs
including "Star Wars" and the Aegis program. "I'm talking about
whatever it needs to make sure that if a missile is fired at the
United States, the president has the means to knock that missile
down," he said on a "Nightline" program. He is cautious about
further U.S. disarmament in the face of developments in Russia.
"With the Communist Party winning more seats in the Russian
parliament and with dangerous characters like Vladimir
Zhirinovsky still playing a major role in Russian politics, the
Clinton Administration's headlong rush toward U.S. disarmament
should come to a screeching halt," he told "Nightline."
   ---------------

   ---------------
   NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY: PAST AND PRESENT

   JIM MALONE
   MANCHESTER, NH

   New Hampshire voters go to the polls Tuesday in what should be
a crucial early test for the eight Republicans running for the
White House. Historically, the New Hampshire primary has been a
make-or-break event for numerous American politicians, beginning
with Dwight Eisenhower in 1952.
   Every four years, New Hampshire voters have to get used to it
again. You are walking down the street, minding your own business
when suddenly you are face to face with someone who wants to be
the next leader of the free world.
   This is the New Hampshire way, a chance for jaded voters to
get nose to nose with presidential candidates and to ask them
where they stand on the issues. The only problem today is that
many voters cannot get to the candidates because a dozen
television news crews are in the way.
   But the media frenzy is a relatively recent phenomenon, it was
not always this way.
   Hugh Gregg remembers. He was New Hampshire's governor back in
1952 when a retired army general with no political experience won
the New Hampshire primary on his way to two terms in the White
House:
   "Well, it has not changed as much as many people think. Of
course, back in 1952 when we had the first race up here with
General (Dwight) Eisenhower on the ticket, we did not have
television. We used typewriters and carbon paper, we had no fax
machines, no computers. And that technology, of course, changed
dramatically. But the basic thing which makes New Hampshire
unique is the one on one, get out in the street and meet the
people. That has not changed very much."
   The other thing which has not changed about the New Hampshire
primary is that it still draws its share of weird and wacky
characters.
   A young environmental activist parades down main street in
Nashua, trying to keep up with Lamar Alexander. He is playing a
song on a boombox (powerful tape recorder) which criticizes
several of the Republican candidates for their stands on
environmental issues. His companion is a man in a moose costume
urging anyone who will listen the environment is being ignored in
this year's campaign. Says the moose man:
   "I do not even have pockets, you can see. So I cannot give
candidates money. All I can do is show up and say, please support
the environment. Because the American people support the
environment, all the polls show that."
   Across the street, two lonely Buchanan supporters wave signs
as the Alexander crowd moves on to the next block.
   New Hampshire voters like the fact they historically have had
the first real shot at the candidates in the election process,
and with one exception since 1952, they have been right. With the
exception of Bill Clinton, every presidential winner since 1952
has first won the New Hampshire primary.
   Some of the voters meet the candidates more than once. Others
invite them to their homes. Despite all the courting from the
candidates there is another thing about New Hampshire that has
not changed, the voters are notoriously unpredictable and they
love to surprise both the candidates and the news media.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   NEW HAMPSHIRE: COMIC RELIEF

   NEAL LAVON
   MANCHESTER N.H.

   The New Hampshire primary is serious business. The candidates
who do well here could possibly go all the way to the party's
nominating convention. Those who do not, vanish from the
political landscape. But seriousness was put aside for a few
hours when some nationally-known comedians came to New Hampshire
to present their views of the primary campaign.
   Bill Maher (marr), host of the all-humor cable television
channel known as "Comedy Central", visited Manchester to stage a
theatrical version of his topical satire talk program,
"Politically Incorrect".
   Maher and his comedy-central crew have also been driving
around the state recording taped segments for comedy central's
coverage of the New Hampshire primary results Tuesday. Before a
live audience in Manchester, Maher and his guests discussed the
New Hampshire primary, focusing on the Republican race.
   Maher noted one of the front-runners in the primary, Senator
Bob Dole, once lost a New Hampshire election because he refused
to sign a pledge that as president, he would not raise taxes.
Maher told his audience he did not quite understand that:
   "It is such a stupid thing to say I am not going to raise
taxes. How does a president know what is going to happen? What if
we collide with mars? We are going to need to raise taxes."
   Former senator and presidential candidate Eugene McCarthy, a
program panelist, said one of the things bothering him most about
candidates is their constant use of the word "we", when
discussing their ideas and activities. To illustrate, he used a
quotation from the famous American humorist, Mark Twain:
   "The only thing worse than this reference to yourself is to
say 'we'. Richard Nixon used to say 'we'. Not with me, you can do
it yourself. Mark twain said no one should use it unless you are
the king of England at that time, the archbishop of Canterbury,
or somebody with a tapeworm."
   Maher and "Comedy Central" plan to broadcast live from both
the Republican and Democratic political conventions in the summer
and then offer a unique brand of coverage on election night in
the fall.
   Does American politics need more humor? Bill Maher says:
   "Well, if it does, I am the guy to give it to 'em."
   ---------------

   ---------------
   SUPREME COURT APPROVES INITIATIVE AND REFERENDUM 1912

   On February 19, 1912, the United States Supreme Court ruled
that the initiative and referendum were constitutional. The
initiative is an electoral device by which citizens can propose
laws or constitutional amendments through petitions signed by
registered voters. If the petitions contain a certain number of
valid signatures set by state law, the proposal is placed on the
ballot. The referendum is an electoral device that makes measures
that have been passed by a legislative body subject to voter
approval before they can become laws. The referendum and the
initiative were late nineteenth century responses to the public's
concern that corporations, railroads and other powerful interests
were thwarting the popular will.
   University of Virginia law professor, A.E. Dick Howard, says
Americans have found that the initiative and referendum
procedures are two democratic responses to express their
political interests:
   "It allowed the people, themselves, either to amend their
state constitutions or to enact statutory legislation (laws).
These [initiative and referendum], I think are thought of as
safety valves, in effect. So that if the ordinary representative
processes appear not to be functioning well, or appear not to
respond to a popular mandates, then there's this, in effect,
by-pass kind of procedure."
   Examples of the initiative and referendum in the late
twentieth century include measures to make English the official
language of a particular state and reforms of tax laws.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   PRESIDENT NIXON BEGINS CHINA VISIT 1972

   On February 21, 1972, President Richard Nixon alighted from
air force one at an airport near Beijing. Mr. Nixon, who had used
anti-communism as a foundation of his political career, astounded
most Americans when he announced that he was going to China. He
said the purpose of his visit was to make an effort to end
decades of mutual antagonism between the world's most populous
communist country and the United States:
   "The meeting, between the leaders of China and the United
States, is to seek the normalization of relations between the two
countries, and, also, to exchange views on questions of concern
to the two sides."
   President Nixon spent dozens of hours in talks with China's
premier Chou En-Lai and he met with chairman Mao. Mr. Nixon's
week-long state visit to the PRC was concluded with the signing
of the Shanghai communique, which set the framework for
developing future Sino-American relations.
   ---------------

   ----------------
   FIRST RECORDED VOTE AGAINST SLAVERY IN AMERICA 1688

   February 21, 1688 marked the first recorded vote against
slavery in America. The vote was taken by the Religious Society
of Friends in Germantown, Pennsylvania. The Society of Friends,
also called Quakers, had developed strong moral and ethical
objections to slavery at an early stage of their history in
England, Germany and Scandinavia. Some historians say that the
Pennsylvania Quakers were especially adamant about their
opposition to slavery which was practiced at the time throughout
the English colonies in America. Many Quakers later became strong
supporters of the so-called "underground railroad," the network
of abolitionists who helped escaped slaves flee to Canada or find
safety in the non-slave states of the north. In 1865, 177 years
after the Germantown Quakers voiced their disapproval of slavery,
the ratification of the thirteenth amendment to the constitution
banned the practice in the United States.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   GEORGE WASHINGTON'S BIRTHDAY 1732

   February 22, 1732 was the birthday of George Washington, a
towering figure in the history of the United States. His youth
was spent on his parents' Virginia farm, where he learned the
skills of a farmer and became a surveyor. Washington rose to the
rank of lieutenant colonel in the Virginia militia where he
displayed remarkable courage in conflicts with Native American
Indians and the French in their North American war with England.
In 1776, the second continental Congress appointed him
commander-in-chief of the continental army in America's war for
independence. He retired to his beloved mt. Vernon, Virginia
plantation after the war. However, in 1787 the congress convinced
George Washington that only he had the stature to preside over
the convention that would write the constitution. His great
prestige supported the new government and made his unanimous
election as the first president of the United States almost
inevitable.
   ---------------

   ---------------
   WORLD PRESS: NEW HAMPSHIRE: BUCHANAN VICTORY

   ROSE SUE BERSTEIN AND PAT MCARDLE
   WASHINGTON

   Foreign media analysts, spanning geographic and political
divides, joined in expressing concern that Pat Buchanan's victory
in the New Hampshire primary reflected growing support in U.S.
society for his "messiah message." Editorialists surveyed the
impact on the Republican Party and its November chances that a
Buchanan candidacy could pose. From Stockholm to Sydney, pundits
concluded that the N.H. results showed not only the appeal of
simple, populist solutions to deep problems but a fissure in the
Republican body politic which ultimately would benefit President
Clinton's chances for re-election. Many insisted that Mr.
Buchanan could not become the Republican nominee, but forecast a
bruising nomination battle and predicted that Senate Majority
Leader Dole would embrace some of Mr. Buchanan's views to gain
votes from "angry white men" in the Buchanan camp. Writers in
Germany and Austria said Mr. Buchanan would garner only a
McGovernesque percentage of November votes. Many papers stressed
after the Iowa caucuses that Lamar Alexander offered the GOP's
strongest challenge to both Sen. Dole and the president. They now
focused on what the GOP could do to brake the Buchanan surge,
with most concluding that Mr. Buchanan would not be stopped, "so
long as Mr. Dole and Mr. Alexander split the mainstream vote."
   Commentators in Western Europe, Canada and Israel were among
those most disconcerted by the Buchanan victory, elaborating
their anxieties about his personality and his ideology. In Paris,
conservative Le Figaro said, "Protectionist, isolationist,
racist, the N.H. winner frightens his own party." London's
centrist Independent went further, depicting a "scary scenario"
of a renewed Cold War in the event of both a Buchanan
presidential victory and the election of a right-wing nationalist
president in Russia. Moscow's reformist Segodnya argued, however,
that it was "too much to say that Buchanan is like the odious
Russian national-patriots." Not surprisingly, Israeli dailies
were alarmed over the "sobering Buchanan phenomenon" of
"respectable" and "sophisticated" antisemitism.
   Asian observers concentrated particularly on Mr. Buchanan's
economic isolationism and the harm Asian security could suffer if
the U.S. pared down its military commitment in the region. In
Mexico City, top-circulation, nationalist Excelsior fretted that
Mr. Buchanan had targeted NAFTA and wondered "whether an
agreement that depends on politicians using cheap demagoguery can
offer a strong foundation" for prosperity.
   Several papers--in Vienna, Oslo and Bogota--noted the high
cost of campaigning, though an Austrian correspondent was not
alone in noting that Steve Forbes's large infusion of personal
money had not won him a race in either Iowa or New Hampshire. An
Argentine wondered at the demise of Sen. Gramm's campaign
"because he appeared to be the candidate who had everything going
for him." Sydney's conservative Australian warned that Mr.
Gramm's demise "sent an ominous message to the Republican leaders
of Congress as the budget-cutting Senator was the candidate most
closely aligned with their 'Republican Revolution.'" Milan's
top-circulation, centrist Corriere della Sera contended that
unlike Mr. Clinton, Republicans "misunderstood" that "America is
not asking for a revolution, but for convergence."

   This report is based on 172 commentaries from 28 countries,
   Feb. 13-22.

   EUROPE

   GERMANY:  "Clinton Profits"

   A commentator on national radio station Deutschlandfunk of
Cologne said (2/21), "It is obvious who will, in the end, profit
from the struggle for the soul of the Republican Party: Bill
Clinton. The one who will challenge him in November will have a
wearing battle behind him. Clinton, in turn, is running without
having a Democratic competitor. Only if he makes mistakes could
he lose the re-election."

   "Primary, Round 2:  The Loser Won"

   Centrist Sueddeutsche Zeitung of Munich observed (2/22),
"Buchanan...is not only an eloquent speaker, but also a man of
simple remedies...who easily blames others for certain
developments.... The right wing of the Republicans likes it but
not even one third of the voters thinks that way.... In a race
between Clinton and Buchanan, Buchanan would turn into the
McGovern of the Republicans."

   "Clinton Profiting From Trench Warfare"

   An editorial in business Handelsblatt of Duesseldorf stated
(2/22), "The outcome of the primary in New Hampshire highlights
the political culture in the United States. A continuing debate
about platforms is not desired. The TV media determine the
dramatic scenario, and populist subjects are sold more easily on
TV than factual debates. The 'Contract with America' has been
forgotten...and the excitement about Forbes's proposals for a
flat tax and reforming the old age pension scheme is over.
   "It is true that the restructuring of the budget is still a
prime topic, but with his nationalistic slogans, Buchanan is
developing a new enemy image: He is making foreigners responsible
for the problems of the United States.... In New Hampshire, Bill
Clinton won. He is undisputed among the Democrats and can easily
lean back and enjoy the trench warfare of his challengers.
Momentarily, his rivals are offering him the arguments he needs
(for his election campaign)."

   "Dangerous Signal"

   Washington correspondent Peter Rzeznitzeck maintained in
right-of-center Rheinische Post of Duesseldorf (2/19), "Pat
Buchanan...thinks...the United States should not be 'led around'
by international organizations. This is a dangerous signal, since
the United States cannot isolate itself in the way these
demagogues demand. But Buchanan gets a strong response all across
the country with his anti-internationalist propaganda. This is
why Buchanan should not be underestimated.... It is time for the
Republicans to stop their self-destruction and to concentrate on
their real political target: Bill Clinton."

   "Iowa:  Lining Up To Kiss The Frogs?"

   Washington correspondent Andreas Boehm remarked in
left-of-center Die Tageszeitung (2/14), "In a rather
inconspicuous state with almost three million inhabitants and the
same number of bibles and numerous...farms, a few rich men are
having a row about who is the best Republican candidate.... But
let us not be unfair: U.S. primaries are usually elections that
make any kind of political satire superfluous. A bunch of frogs
enters the race to make the people believe that they will enter
the White House as a radiant prince if they are kissed often
enough." BRITAIN:  "Scary Fantasy Scenario"
   The centrist Independent commented (2/22), "It is a scary
scenario.... Buchanan...wins the party nomination.... Then, in
September, the U.S. Army suffers a disastrous reverse in a
disintegrating Bosnia.... The U.S. economy turns cold; a
Whitewater smoking gun is found to implicate the Clintons in
financial wrongdoing. Clinton melts down and Buchanan is
elected.... If that is not bad enough, in February, 1997, there
follows the first summit between President Buchanan and President
Zhirinovsky.... The two men--despite being remarkably similar
characters, or maybe because of it--fall out savagely. Detente is
over; the Cold War, the arms race and history begin all over
again. Who said politics does not matter any longer?
   "One cannot completely discount this version of the future:
The U.S. political mood is more than usually hysterical at
present."

   "The Merchant Of Fear"

   Columnist and former editor of the conservative Times William
Rees-Mogg observed (2/22), "The early Republican primaries
probably reflect the national arithmetic. The moderates win 70
percent of the vote; the conservatives, playing on social and
economic anxieties, win 30 percent. At present most Americans
still feel that they are doing quite well. They do not admire
Bill Clinton but they do not think that he has done too badly for
them. Nor do they feel isolationist or in personal need of job
protection. If this present mood continues, the Republicans are
likely to nominate Dole or Alexander, and if they did nominate
Buchanan he would probably lose. One of his weaknesses is that
his attitudes repel many women, and that alone could stop him
reaching the White House....
   "If there is no recession, Buchanan will run out of the
economic anxiety which makes peole vote for him. He is a merchant
of fear, and without fear he will not succeed. There was enough
fear in New Hampshire to put him into first place. That cannot be
good news for America."

   "Economic Conservatives Offended"

   BBC TV's Breakfast News (2/21) chief North America
correspondent Gavin Esler commented in his report, which showed
Buchanan's supporters giving Nazi salutes and began with Buchanan
singing an anthem: "Fortunately for his political career, Pat
Buchanan campaigns better than he sings. The far right winger
finished first by a whisker. But his strongly protectionist,
anti-abortion social conservatism, which occasionally bashes big
business, deeply offends many economic conservatives. The big
loser, despite his second place, was Senator Bob Dole, the grand
old man of the Republican Party, who cajoled voters even as the
polls were ready to close. But it wasn't enough. His campaign
will stagger on."
   Commenting on Buchanan's chances, Esler said, "Many mainstream
Republicans I have talked to simply do not believe that this man
can win the Republican nomination. They say privately that if he
does, Bill Clinton could win all 50 states.... I would not be too
worried about President Pat Buchanan, at least not yet."
   Regarding President Clinton's chances for reelection, Esler
said, "I think you should not overlook the capacity of President
Clinton to make mistakes.... I have to say that at this point,
the only person who looks like beating Bill Clinton is Bill
Clinton."

   "Dole Upstaged By Buchanan On Jobs And Trade"

   The conservative Daily Telegraph said (2/21), "There is no
doubting Mr. Buchanan has struck a chord in New Hampshire, and
long after the result of yesterday's primary is forgotten, the
impact of his singular brand of anti-business populism will be
felt. Barring an act of God or two, Mr. Buchanan will not win the
Republican nomination, not least because more than half of
Republican voters believe he is too conservative for the White
House. By establishing himself as the undisputed candidate of the
right, he has booked his passage through the summer primaries and
into a prominent speaking role at the party convention in San
Diego in August. It is Mr. Buchanan who has set the agenda of the
New Hampshire campaign by sticking to his theme that free trade
is eroding middle and working class economic opportunities. He
has made Senator Robert Dole, the erstwhile front runner, look
like a marginal figure."

   "Buchanan Squeaks Past Dole"

   The Times observed (2/21), "Party leaders are determined that
Mr. Buchanan must not be the nominee, but he will not be stopped
so long as Mr. Dole and Mr. Alexander split the mainstream vote."

   "Watch Alexander"

   The Times (2/15) opined, "The man in the lumberjack shirt is
the outsider, but an intriguing candidate. He is well qualified
to be president and could be a formidable rival to Mr. Clinton in
the autumn election. Mr. Dole remains the man to beat but
stranger things have happened in American politics than President
Alexander."

   "Buchanan's Message Is Not A Load Of Hogwash"

   Columnist Andrew Marr commented in the Independent (2/15),
"The economic insecurity of farmers, blue collar workers and
others is not comforted by knowledge of the lobbying, handouts
and kickbacks which provide the fuel for politics-as-usual....
Voters think they face a system which is scarcely democratic but
which has been bought and bent--and which is lathering them in
pig shit.
   "For mainstream politicians, this is the biggest challenge of
all. The new populists are exploiting a genuine and widespread
unease about the disappearance of economic and political power
from local communities and traditional democratic systems. If
mainstream politicians do not develop a political economy which
offers people a stronger sense of belonging, then one day they
will be elbowed aside."

   FRANCE:  "Buchanan Frightens His Own Party"

   According to conservative Le Figaro (2/22), "The Republicans
came out of the New Hampshire primaries more divided than
ever.... No candidate from the leading group has really come out,
and the party is concerned to see Buchanan in center stage and
dividing the party.... One year after the historic reconquest of
Congress by their party, the Republicans are annoyed by the image
of their presidential campaign.... Protectionist, isolationist,
racist, the New Hampshire winner frightens his own party."

   "A Kind Of Zhirinovsky"
   Regional La Presse de la Manche commented (2/22), "Buchanan's
   success is alarming.
   "Could we imagine this kind of personality leading the United
States, and a kind of Zhirinovsky, leading Russia? The risks of
conflict would be tremendous. At present, the Republicans do not
really seem to believe in Bill Clinton's possible victory. But it
is true that in Uncle Sam's country, nothing is ever definitely
fixed."

   "Excellent News For President Clinton"

   France Inter Radio (2/21) aired Bernard Ghetta's assessment
that "Buchanan's victory in New Hampshire is excellent news for
President Clinton, who finds himself comforted in his position as
a moderate candidate, one who favors consensus and reason."

   "Bad Result For Republican Party"

   Washington correspondent Jean-Bernard Cadier held on private
Europe One Radio (2/21), "It is a thunderstorm in the Republican
sky; the first important vote in the race to the White House is
won by an extremist.... It is a very bad result for the
Republican Party, a party which seems to be divided, and hustled
by Pat Buchanan, who does not really express its ideas. This is
an ideal result for Bill Clinton."

   "Republican Voters Know How To Clean House"

   Bernard Guetta said on Europe One Radio (2/14) about the Iowa
results, "Republican voters know how to clean house. Steve
Forbes, who spent millions of dollars for his
campaign...was...virtually eliminated.... For the time being, the
favorite in the election is not a Republican, but the Democrat
Bill Clinton."

   "First Test"

   Influential Liberation commented (2/14), "In the long run,
Lamar Alexander's breakthrough could be the most threatening for
Bob Dole. Up to now very discreet, this moderate man...could
impose himself as a kind of Republican Clinton."

   "Pat Buchanan's Breakthrough"

   According to influential Le Monde (2/14), "Pat Buchanan's
breakthrough will certainly lead to a radicalization of the
campaign."

   ITALY:  "Reconciling Different Souls Of The U.S. Right"

   Mario Margiocco remarked in financial Il Sole 24 Ore (2/21),
"Buchanan does not love the United Nations, NAFTA and even less
GATT; he is against sending U.S. troops abroad and hates
multinationals which take American jobs abroad. In the United
States, one can be a conservative even if he has nothing or
little to defend but his religious view of America.... America's
problem is still the same as it was before Ronald Reagan's
victory: economic uncertainty, no longer due to inflation but to
the decline of real income. And Pat Buchanan--who is not alone
among Republican candidates--gives the usual answer: Let's
rediscover America and its values, against Washington and against
the international ties which prevent America from being itself.
If America represents salvation, what's the need for the United
Nations and NAFTA, the IMF and GATT? The trouble is that, with
Reagan, America has become the main international debtor and
that, in order to pay its debts, it needs to sell more and more
products abroad. That is why it needs open markets and respect
for common rules. But Buchanan will have time to think about that
if and when he is elected."

   "Shocked"

   Ennio Caretto observed from Manchester in centrist,
top-circulation Corriere della Sera (2/21), "Appalled,
Republicans are wondering what will become of them as a result of
Buchanan's victory in New Hampshire. They wonder what kind of
party will emerge from this traumatic electoral campaign.... The
war among the Republican candidates is a war which a majority of
Republicans do not want, since they know Clinton would emerge the
winner."

   "Gramm the First Victim Among Reagan's Five Heirs"

   Alberto Pasolini Zanelli commented in rightist Il Giornale
(2/15), "Recreating the Reagan coalition is an impossible
task.... Only Jack Kemp could have tried, but he did not find the
necessary financial support. Gramm could also have done it, but
the message lost all of its charm in his speeches."

   "Buchanan's Short Cut"

   Arturo Zampaglione observed from New Hampshire in
left-leaning, influential La Repubblica (2/15), "The short cut
proposed by Buchanan to revive the golden age is...isolationism
and protectionism.... Economists and financial operators repeat
that such a recipe would be disastrous, but Buchanan continues on
his way, applauded by old ladies in Manchester."

   "Only Bill Can Defeat Clinton"

   Roberto Zichittella wrote in leading Catholic weekly Famiglia
Cristiana (2/15), "Nine months before the U.S. presidential
elections, the situation is as follows: Bill Clinton wants to be
reelected, there are no Democratic candidates willing to
challenge him, but scandals and legal investigations threaten him
and his wife Hillary. The Republicans want to take the White
House away from Clinton, but they present too many candidates and
are weaker than they were in November '94, when they conquered
the majority of the House and Senate in the mid-term
elections.... Clinton's ability will consist in making some of
the right's strong points his own, softening them and reducing
their ideological charge."

   "Clinton Knows Pulse Of America Best"

   Ennio Caretto opined in Corriere della Sera (2/14), "(Iowa)
places itself to the right, being one of the American cradles of
the Christian coalition, of conservatism and isolationism. Yet
the Iowa vote sent a centrist message of renewal.... Dole and
Alexander together scored 45 percent against the Forbes-Buchanan
33 percent. It is an indication that even in the heartland of
America there is a big desire for centrist policies. America is
not asking for a revolution, but for convergence: A majority of
Americans do not want to choose beween opposed extremes, but
rather favor a third way, the alternation between two gradual
approaches to renewal.

   "So far, only one leader has realized that: President Clinton."

   "Clinton Is The Only Real Winner"

   Vittorio Zucconi wrote in centrist La Stampa (2/14), "We can
certainly say that everybody has lost in the Iowa caucuses, given
Bob Dole's victory by a narrow margin.... The only real winner of
this first electoral test was the absent candidate: Bill
Clinton."

   RUSSIA:  "Disaster"

   Vladimir Nadein filed from Washington for reformist Izvestia
(2/22), "Disaster occurred in tiny New Hampshire.... As the
campaign goes on, nobody remembers Russia, Bosnia or the restive
Middle East. All presidents in the past half a century--from
Truman to Bush--were players on the world scene, for which they
won elections and respect."

   "A Source Of Concern Abroad"

   Reformist Segodnya's Vladimir Abarinov judged (2/22), "It
would be too much to say that Buchanan is like the odious Russian
national-patriots. Nonetheless, the results of the New Hampshire
primary are a source of concern for several capitals as well as
the UN."

   "The White House Is Happy"

   Readers of Segodnya (2/22) also saw this by Vladimir Kozlovsky
in New York: "Strictly speaking, there is nothing particularly
'fascist' about Buchanan--he is not quite fond of Jews, but this
is not fascism, not quite. Even so, the White House is happy a
man with a reputation like that is among Republican candidates.
Going up against him, Clinton, as good as a lame duck for many
only a few months ago, would be invincible."

   "A Vote For Alexander Is Better Than One For Clinton"

   Vladimir Kozlovsky filed from New York for reformist
Segodnya's (2/17) issue, "For many Republicans...Alexander is far
from a perfect candidate. But if they have to back him to bust
the hated Clinton, they will do so even if they have to hold
their noses.

   AUSTRIA:  "Republicans Are At A Crossroads"

   Independent Der Standard's foreign affairs writer Eric Frey
argued (2/22) that "no lonesome fighter of the Republicans ever
succeeded to be nominated against the powerful resistance of the
party machinery and economic interests. Should Pat Buchanan
succeed, President Bill Clinton can get some inspiration for his
election campaign from Oliver Stone's new movie. Before he was
re-elected in 1972, Richard Nixon was confronted with doubts
about his character and the--leftist--zeitgeist. But by choosing
the most extreme candidate, the Democrats let the 'silent
majority' help Nixon beat George McGovern in a landslide
victory."

   "God Beats Mammon In First Round"

   Eric Frey commented in Der Standard (2/14), "Not the millions
of Steve Forbes, but the enthusiasm of the religious
fundamentalists tipped the balance in the caucuses.... If Dole
moves further right under Buchanan's pressure, he may be
nominated, but he may still lose the duel against Bill Clinton in
November. And since yesterday, the Democrats have a new hope:
Perhaps the Republicans will be crazy enough to choose Buchanan
as their candidate."

   BELGIUM:  "Pat Buchanan, To The Right Of Right"

   Under the headline above, foreign editor Carl Pansaerts said
in financial Financieel-Economische Tijd (2/22), "If Buchanan
receives the Republican Party's nomination in San
Diego...Clinton's path will be strewn with roses.... "In the
unlikely event that Buchanan is elected president in the fall,
the United States--and the rest of the world--will be a less
lovely and fine place to live. Buchanan's xenophobic, racist,
anti-UN, anti-Wall Street, anti-abortion, anti-free trade,
anti-entrepreneurial world and conservative, Christian platform
guarantees that.
   "And what if Communist Gennadi Zyuganov becomes president of
Russia in June while his full-fledged antipode Pat Buchanan
becomes president...in November? A revival of the East-West
opposition and a return to some form of Cold War will then
certainly be possible."

   "Not A Good Sign"

   Conservative Het Laatste Nieuws (2/22) held, "Buchanan's
success leaves the image of an America that is becoming more
rightist; (an America) that is retreating into itself (while)
dreaming of a past that will never come back. This will
undoubtedly have an impact on Washington's policy--no matter who
is in power in the years to come. And that is not a good sign for
the development of worldwide trade, not for us and not for the
developing countries."

   "Cohabitation Or Gridlock?"

   Laurent Monseur remarked in socialist La Wallonie (2/20), "For
nearly two years now, 'cohabitation' American-style has
anesthetized domestic political life across the Atlantic. That
partly explains Bill Clinton's involvement in foreign policy,
scoring successes yet to be confirmed in the former Yugoslavia,
in Northern Ireland and in the Middle East. It is in that special
context that Bill Clinton will try to win a second term at the
White House.... But which Bill Clinton? Some observers emphasize
his fuzziness, others highlight his ability to rebound....
   "The incumbent president is faced with two possible attitudes:
adopt a low profile and let the Republicans destroy themselves by
enforcing a program that would quickly become unpopular; or,
adopt some of their themes. He has not made his choice yet."

   "The Man Democrats Fear Most:  Alexander"

   Hans de Bruijn wrote from Washington for conservative Catholic
Gazet van Antwerpen (2/14), "The surprise in Iowa was Lamar
Alexander's strong third place.... Ask the Democrats who they
fear most in the Republican camp and the answer, in general, is
Lamar Alexander."

   CANADA:  "Outpouring Of Festering Frustration"

   The liberal Ottawa Citizen (2/22) offered this editorial,
"What we saw in New Hampshire was an outpouring of festering
frustration from Republican voters who realize that none of their
leading candidates appear capable of beating a supremely
vulnerable Democratic president. The experts and the
pundits...are now busy predicting a long and gruelling race to
the point where the Republican convention might actually be a
true contest for the first time in four decades."

   "Buchanan's Chances For Republican Nomination Are Good"

   Under the headline above, the business-oriented Financial
Post's editor Diane Francis said (2//2), "Barring a major mishap,
Buchanan has brilliantly, and sincerely, outflanked his party
colleagues as well as President Bill Clinton.... He has seized
the most popular role in the United States: chief theologian of
American populism.... "Besides popular stances, he has also
hijacked the most appealing portions of Clinton's agenda which
was anti-free trade and anti-big business.... By so doing, we
will witness the amusing prospect of Buchanan putting Clinton in
the position of having to defend the Mexican peso bailout, NAFTA
as well as GATT membership.... Whatever happens, Buchanan won't
substantively change the economic, or trade, policy of the United
States. Because he can't."

   HUNGARY:  "Buchanan's Battle"

   Influential, liberal Magyar Hirlap carried the following op-ed
piece (2/22): "Although most voters who belong to the political
center of the Republican Party are convinced that Buchanan is an
extremist who has no chance whatsoever to become the presidential
nominee, his victory...is still a serious warning to America.
Buchanan has been attacked by members of his party over the past
couple of years; he has been called an extreme right-wing pit
bull supporting anti-semitism, racism and hatred of foreigners.
Voters who are fed up with the influence of the wealthy party
elite and want to have a say in the life of their country,
however, do not care at all about the negative opinions of their
leader."

   THE NETHERLANDS:  "Buchanan Drives On The Undercurrents"

   According to influential, liberal-left De Volkskrant (2/22),
"Dole is a realist who knows that the Amerian system of checks
and balances rules out major changes in course. He therfore does
not want to make major empty promises and this explains why his
performance is so flat.... Buchanan drives on the undercurrents
which have made politics in the United States so unpredictable in
the nineties."

   "Television-Democracy"

   Calvinist left Trouw opined (2/22), "The election battle in
the United States has turned into a financial war as well. Those
who can present themselves best raise millions of guilders, and
without that money they cannot campaign via the media. It is the
price that the candidate and the voter pay for what is nowadays
called television-democracy."

   "The Clintons Are Cheering"

   Left-of-center Rotterdams Dagblad asserted (2/21), "Clinton
and the Democratic Party are pleased to see that the Republicans
are hopelessly divided.... For the rest of the world--Mexico in
particular, and Europe, not in the least--it is to be hoped that
Patrick Buchanan will not be the next President of the United
States of America."

   NORWAY:  "Buchanan And The Worried Class"

   Conservative Aftenposten's Per A. Christiansen wrote (2/22)
"The question now is how Dole and the party leadership will
counteract the Buchanan effect. They could either try to explain
the complicated economy and show Americans how their own lavish
lifestyles during the Reagan years led them into the heavy debt
they are in today, or they could choose to take Buchanan up on
his example and create their own horror vision of the future.
Previous elections show that an election year isn't the right
time for fine nuances in American politics, and simple arguments
are far more effective than complicated explanations."

   "God, Flag And Nation"

   Social-democratic Arbeiderbladet held (2/21), "Even though Pat
Buchanan is doing well in the primaries, conventional wisdom says
he is too extreme to be nominated as the Republican presidential
candidate. However, the smart and experienced media
personality...knows how to challenge conventional wisdom.
Buchanan has managed to create a powerful alliance of the
Christian right, anti-abortion activists and those who are worst
off economically.... He exposes the inner misery of the party in
the most brutal way, and sets the premises for the debate. Echoes
of his populism can now be heard from the other candidates and
from the depth of the party itself.... He plays up to people's
fears and uncertainties, and his supporters are mostly angry,
white men who see that the America of their dreams is about to be
taken away from them."

   SLOVENIA:  "Unbearable Lightness Of The (Republican)
               Candidacy"
   Barbara Surk wrote in left-of-center Republika (2/14), "The
Republican candidates have shown nothing but infamous mud
slinging, humiliation of their rivals, lack of imagination, and a
great deal of boredom, from which only their Democratic rival can
profit.... Campaigning against the (existing) government in order
to take over the steering wheel is an ordinary thing in American
presidential elections.... But this year's presidential campaign
may become historic...because in 1996, the aforesaid method may
result...in what the Republican Congress wants the least: another
term for the Democratic president."

   SPAIN:  "Buchanan Is Helping Clinton"

   An editorial in leading, liberal El Pais of Madrid said
(2/22), "Buchanan's initial success is clearly due to his
populist, protectionist speech which strongly appeals to the
anxieties of a good part of the electorate.... It is doubtful
that, at the moment of truth, a majority of Americans will decide
to send to the White House somebody who opposes free trade
accords with Canada and Mexico like NAFTA and worldwide ones like
GATT... Thus the Republican Party is beginning to have a serious
problem. The lack of a winning horse favors Lamar Alexander's
chances.... Meanwhile, Bill Clinton is strengthening his moderate
and centrist image and can consider himself more and more secure.
Unless some serious incident regarding the Whitewater affairs or
new unforeseeable ones occur, Clinton can be true to his nickname
of 'Comeback Kid.' Buchanan, the ultra-rightist, is helping him."

   "Buchanan Can Destroy Republicans"

   Centrist Diario 16 held (2/22), "The Republicans have shown
their worst manners and frightened the whole country with the
triumph in New Hampshire of the populist demagogue Pat Buchanan.
They could not have done better to make more enemies, at home and
abroad. But his messiah message will lead him nowhere....
However, the damage his...ideology can inflict on the real
candidate is enormous. Buchanan bites so fiercely that his bites
can destroy his own party."

   "New Hampshire Legend Bad News For Dole"

   Rafael Navarro Valls wrote in centrist El Mundo (2/20),
"Clinton's case (in the last 43 years only he was elected
president after losing the New Hampshire primary) presents a weak
hope for the number two Republican candidate in the New Hampshire
primary, but only on condition that he can count on very strong
economic support."

   "Clinton Won In Iowa"

   El Pais (2/15) commented, "Some Republicans would like Colin
Powell to change his mind.... But if he does not, and if the
Whitewater scandal does not fatally hurt his candidacy, Bill
Clinton could win a surprisingly easy re-election.... The
Republicans, who only a few months ago appeared to have a lead,
are now asking...how to defeat a president who they thought was
already finished. Divided and possibly kidnaped by a radical,
ultrareligious right movement, they may end up frightening the
moderate electorate which is so essential to get to the White
House."

   "Iowa End Gramm's Expectations, Reinforces Buchanan's 'Ultra'
    Candidacy"

   Diario 16 (2/15) ran this from Washington: "The failure in
Iowa not only puts an end to Gramm's expectations but radically
changes the race for the Republican nomination by strengthening
Buchanan."

   SWEDEN:  "Dole Moves Right To Neutralize Buchanan"

   Conservative Svenska Dagbladet (2/22) opined, "Buchanan is
harshly criticized for his protectionism and isolationism.
However, his economic and cultural nationalism has undeniably
received plenty of electoral support. This affects Republican
efforts to bring back Perot supporters and Reagan Democrats to
the Republican Party. Senator Dole, also aware of the importance
of these groups, has consequently adopted many of the issues on
Buchanan's political agenda. Dole has in fact moved so close to
Buchanan that his criticism of Buchanan for being an extremist
may begin to rub off on Dole himself."

   "Breathing Space For Clinton"

   Svenska Dagbladet (2/19) held, "The...mud slinging makes the
Republican Party look weak and divided. This is probably a
blessing for Clinton.... However, Clinton has been on the
defensive this past winter on the budget fight with Congress as
well as the character issue. It now remains to be seen whether it
will be Dole, Buchanan or Alexander who will be able to take
advantage of Clinton's weak points."

   SWITZERLAND:  "Buchanan, King Of Controversy"

   Antoine Maurice maintained in center-right Journal de Geneve
(2/22), "Buchanan's success has widened a fissure at the heart of
the U.S. conservative movement. The more dominant group is
pro-trade, pro-growth, against big government. On the other side
sits the protectionist and puritanical Christian right. Although
Buchanan is Catholic, he is tending more and more to represent
this generally Protestant moral minority. This fissure now
threatens to derail the conservative revolution launched by Newt
Gingrich in 1994. Thus Buchanan joins the ranks of political
movers who resist the developments of their age. In a country
that's long been holding the ball in the game of globalization,
all this is rather unexpected. Indeed Buchanan hadn't even found
his life's calling until Gingrich's neo-conservatism left many
middle-class Americans wondering how rosy their future would
truly be.
   "All this 'zapping' among candidates and dogmas reveals that
America is more ideologically fragmented than any other nation
today. Clinton profited in 1992 from the 'dissolving' effect of
Buchanan; he can rejoice over what looks like a similar scenario
this year."

   EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

   JAPAN:  "Buchanan Phenomenon"

   Liberal Asahi held (2/22), "Buchanan insists that NAFTA be
abolished; the United States withdraw from the World Trade
Organization; and a uniform 10 percent tax be imposed on imports
from Japan and China. Five years ago, he contributed an article
to a U.S. paper urging that the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty be
abolished. Will the 'Buchanan phenomenon' be transitory? Or is it
he a harbinger of deep political changes in the United States?
President Clinton...can hardly ignore this 'Buchanan phenomenon'
in gauging the mood of Americans."

   "Don't Forget To Discuss U.S. Policy Toward Asia"

   Liberal Mainichi observed (2/22), "Senator Dole's second-place
finish...dealt a serious blow to the front-running Republican
presidential contender. Pat Buchanan's victory tells the story of
the Republican Party, which is agonizing over its conservative
forces. But no Republican candidate will be able to win a
presidential election by speaking only for conservatives.... Both
U.S. politicians and Americans have become more inward-looking
since the end of the Cold War. Presidential contenders have
become less interested in international issues. This is
unfortunate. Although the United States is losing influence over
the world, the presidential candidates should realize that the
United States, as the only superpower, is still linked closely to
international issues. The candidates should deepen their interest
in and understanding of U.S.-Asia ties and Asian issues."

   "Republicans Should Challenge Democratic Party"

   Top-circulation, moderate Yomiuri's editorial (2/19) stressed,
"It appears that the U.S. voters are concerned about and
dissatisfied with the future of U.S. society and economy. They
are also displeased with the confrontation between the Congress
and the president over the 1996 budget, and with candidates who
have been criticizing one another without presenting any clear
visions for the future. Buchanan may have attracted many of those
discontented voters.... If Dole and Alexander start to claim more
conservative policies aimed at win conservative votes, that will
turn the situation into exactly what the Clinton camp wishes.
When that happens, Clinton would be able to criticize the
Republicans by calling them extreme conservatives and present
himself as moderate. What each of the Republican candidates needs
is to challenge the Democratic Party by proposing attractive
policies but not by competing with conservative claims. Voters
are not necessarily content with President Clinton."

   AUSTRALIA:  "Newt's Revolution Is Left Behind"

   The national, business-oriented Australian Financial Review's
Washington correspondent said (2/22), "Now the Republican Party
confronts a bitter ideological battle with the protectionist
'America first' Pat Buchanan over whether it continues to
maintain a pro-business and internationalist outlook. All this
has prised apart the Gingrich coalition of budget hawks,
supply-side tax cutters and religious conservatives.... With Dole
weakened, Buchanan has grabbed the opportunity to cannibalize the
Republican establishment with revolutionary rallying of his
'peasants with pitchforks' against evil multinationals and 'new
world order' atrocities such as the UN. By crusading against both
free trade and free sex, this dark side of the Republican Party
is dividing its conservative religious right from its libertarian
economic right wing."

   "Ripples Around The World"

   The liberal Sydney Morning Herald's Washington correspondent
filed (2/22), "Whether Senator Dole, or...Lamar Alexander will be
able to successfully address the fears Mr. Buchanan has
highlighted will be one of the most interesting aspects...of this
election year."

   "Dole Concentrates Fire On Third Man"

   The Washington correspondent for the Australian Financial
Review (2/21) filed, "While Mr. Buchanan could inflict serious
damage on Senator Dole, he is still not considered a serious
candidate to win the Republican nomination--if only because his
fringe political views would make him easy pickings for President
Clinton."

   "Buchanan Forces Nervous Trade Debate"

   The Sydney Morning Herald (2/21) and Melbourne's liberal Age
ran their Washington correspondent's report that, "The other
candidates have been forced to nervously defend trade pacts like
the NAFTA...while trying to belatedly appeal to workers' worries
in an effort to blunt Mr. Buchanan's powerful message."

   "Gramm Out Of Republican Race For White House"

   The Washington correspondent for the Australian (2/15) said,
"(Gramm's) demise sent an ominous message to the Republican
leaders of Congress as the budget-cutting senator was the
candidate most closely aligned with their 'Republican
Revolution.'"

   "Iowa's Big Winner:  Clinton"

   The Age held in a story by its Washington correspondent
(2/14), "The big winner out of last night's Republican nominating
election in Iowa was not even a member of the party. It was a
Democrat, President Clinton."

   CHINA: "Curtain Rises On Campaign; Democrats, Republicans
           Warming Up"

   Washington correspondent Li Zhengxin wrote in the official,
Communist Youth League China Youth Daily (2/14), "The Iowa
caucuses officially opened the 1996 U.S. presidential election.
On the Democratic side, President Clinton didn't face any
challengers and easily won all 56 votes.... The outcome of the
Republican contest began to clarify the complicated field of
Republican candidates. But what worries Clinton is not the result
of Iowa but the possibility that Dole will enter into a
partnership with former General Colin Powell to contest the
election."

   HONG KONG:  "Stimulating Tonic For Dole"

   Leading, pro-PRC Ta Kung Pao maintained (2/14), "Dole won this
battle. It is a stimulating tonic for him. Forbes, whose poll
ratings climbed rapidly recently, did not pose a threat for him
(in Iowa.) This will make Dole feel good, at least
psychologically."

   NEW ZEALAND:  "Clinton Bets On One-Horse Race"

   Wellington's left-of-center Dominion (2/13) said, "In spite of
the problems faced by the Clintons, which would have left a
stronger challenger a dream run to grasp the presidency in
November, the Republicans are in disarray and Democratic
President Bill Clinton is being regarded as the comeback kid....
"Apart from Dole, none of the other seven Republican candidates
has demonstrated any political sex appeal....
   "By tradition a Republican administration tends to be more for
free trade, but in essence we are not likely to see huge policy
differences--except in the area of Medicaid--whatever the
outcome. New Zealand farmers, with jaundiced eye, will note that
the archaic American dairy subsidy will live on, because these
protected farmers have enough backers in both parties."

   SOUTH KOREA:  "How U.S. Mood Will Affect Us"

   Pro-business Joongang Ilbo (2/22) said of the Buchanan
victory, "There is no need to mention that this prevailing
conservative isolationism will have an influence on South Korea,
which is heavily dependent on the United States for its security
and economy. The U.S. political mood will be realized in demands
for increased burden sharing by South Korea for the stationing of
U.S. troops here, increased trade pressure and a North Korean
policy that puts U.S. interests first."

   "Clinton Camp Baffled By Surge Of Alexander"

   Conservative Chosun Ilbo (2/15) maintained that "Alexander has
a very similar, almost identical, background to that of Clinton,
and he is also as politically capable as the current president.
Moreover, Alexander's more conservative posture is an additional
plus. The question now is whether the Republican candidate will
be able to pick up the support of religious conservatives and win
the nomination."

   THAILAND:  "New Hampshire:  A Jinxed Stage"

   Thitichai Thanadeerojkun's commentary in the independent
Bangkok Post's Thai-language sister publication, Siam Post (2/22)
discussed the importance of New Hampshire primaries and commented
on the Republican primary victor, Pat Buchanan, saying, "If
chosen as the Republican presidential nominee, Buchanan, a good
orator, will be a tough opponent for President Bill Clinton. But
some Americans believe that Buchanan has nothing (to offer)
beyond his oratorical skills."

   "Do Or Die For Dole In New Hampshire"

   The lead editorial in the independent Nation said (2/21), "Few
Republicans believe that Buchanan has broad enough appeal to win
the party's nomination to contest the November presidential
elections, but certainly the Dole camp is wll aware of the damage
that Buchanan did to George Bush in New Hampshire at the last
presidential elections. It was a big factor in putting Bill
Clinton in the White House."

   MIDDLE EAST

   EGYPT:  "Looks Good For President Clinton"

   Salwa Habib wrote in pro-government Al-Ahram (2/15), "The
presidential elections this time are characterized by two
phenomena. First, President Clinton is the only Democratic
candidate...and thus he has not officially announced his
candidacy although primary elections have already started.
Second, the Republican arena...lacks a charismatic
personality.... That is why they may push a new personality, such
as Colin Powell, into the arena at the last moment.... So far,
Americans see Clinton as the best candidate to lead the United
States.... If this happens, he would be the first Democrat since
Roosevelt to stay in office for two terms." ISRAEL: 
"Zhirinovsky's American Double"
   Columnist Meir Stigliz commented in top-circulation,
independent Yediot (2/22), "There's nothing subtle about
Buchanan's message: extreme isolationism in foreign affairs, a
radically conservative approach to social issues and the
economics of populism. It's enough to hear one of his speeches on
America's status in the world to realize that the man is
dangerous. He categorically rules out any American overseas
intervention that is not directly linked to protecting U.S.
security or economic interests. Don't expect anything of him when
it comes to security arrangements on the Golan. He also vows that
he won't let a single American soldier serve abroad under foreign
command. The UN is no exception because, according to Buchanan,
the UN is the spearhead of an international conspiracy to take
America.... Buchanan's New Hampshire victory is an earthquake.
Nothing got smashed yet, but we received another signal that even
under the new world order the scorching lava of hatred and fear
continues to flow just below the surface."

   "The Buchanan Phenomenon"

   The right-wing Jerusalem Post contended (2/22), "It would be
wrong to dismiss the Buchanan phenomenon as an expression of
frustration and protest. As a representative of the increasingly
acceptable fascist trend in the world, he probably represents a
solid 15 percent of the American population--a demographic slice
similar to that which neo-fascist parties in France, Russia and
Italy represent. For now, they are still a fringe movement. But
if Buchanan gains momentum in the primaries, the Republican
nominating convention will not be able to ignore his followers'
platform demands.
   "Nor can anyone guess how a rising crime rate, drug
proliferation, massive illegal immigration, unemployment or a
socio-economic crisis caused by revolutionary technology will
affect his fortunes four years from now."

   "Evil Spirit Haunting The American Mainstream"

   An editorial in independent Maariv noted (2/20), "Buchanan's
rising fortunes in the Republican Party primaries is a reminder
that the isolationist, racist and anti-Semitic right can go a
long way in American politics. Buchanan appeals to the darker
passions of American conservatives....
   "Senator Dole will probably beat Buchanan in the key New
Hampshire primaries, but the very fact that Buchanan has emerged
as a challenge to Dole is an alarming indication of the evil
spirit haunting the American mainstream."

   LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN

   ARGENTINA: "The Goal Is Stopping Buchanan"

   Marina Aizen remarked from New Hampshire in leading Clarin
(2/22), "In order to continue, Dole must recuperate his
leadership talents, which have been absent until now. This is
what turned him into an extremely vulnerable candidate. And this
weakness was welcomed with open arms by Alexander.... Alexander
speaks the same language as Bill Clinton and insists that he is
the only one with the necessary charisma to defeat him....
Alexander has to win a state soon in order to remove the
third-place sign that hangs around his neck."

   "Infinitely More Dangerous"

   Walter Goobar, left-of-center Pagina 12's political columnist,
wrote (2/21), "A fighter for the faith, the establishment's
nightmare, a racist and a demagogue, Pat Buchanan--the latest and
most surprising star of the Republican electoral campaign--is
presented as the new Reagan. Without Alzheimer's disease, but
infinitely more dangerous."

   "Phil Gramm Out of the Race:  Candidate Drops The Towel"

   Monica Flores Correa, Pagina 12's New York-based
correspondent, wrote (2/15), "Gramm's withdrawal and his bad
'performance' in the caucuses are surprising, because he appeared
to be the candidate who had everything going for him.... His
careful economic speech and his social message were the perfect
music to the ears of the most activist Republicans, currently
dominating the primaries. But...his strategists found out that
his image reflected too much self-confidence and haughtiness."

   COLOMBIA:  "Money Really Can't Buy The Prize"

   Columnist Antonio Panesso wrote in second leading Liberal
Party-oriented El Espectador (2/20), "The primaries...are showing
once more that money doesn't win in politics, contrary to false
conventional wisdom.... Steve Forbes...is now giving
the...process a try, with a style superior to that of Ross Perot.
He has also been defeated in the primaries."

   "Tweedledum"

   El Espectador (2/16) ran Jorge Mendez's view that, "In this
fragile panorama of the Republican opposition, Clinton's
star...is on the rise. He is easily the safest card to play, not
so much because of the great achievements his administration has
had, or not, but because of the weakness of his opponents."

   GUATEMALA:  "About Dirty Campaigns"

   Oscar Clemente Marroquin wrote in left-of-center La Hora
(2/20), "Dole...Buchanan...Alexander...and Forbes have been
humbled by minute scrutiny that has even shed light on personal
and family problems.... I think that dirty campaigns are based on
lying and insults, but I don't think that debate about the
qualities or defects (real or imagined) between the candidates
should be overlooked."

   MEXICO:  "What Foundation Does NAFTA Have?"

   Top-circulation, nationalist Excelsior held (2/15), "Buchanan
has turned NAFTA into one of the favorite targets of his
reactionary statements.... But what Latin American nations are
beginning to question is whether an agreement that depends on
politicians using cheap demagoguery can offer a strong
foundation. We all want prosperity across our borders, but we do
not want the United States to be the only beneficiary of
prosperity."
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