       Document 0193
 DOCN  M9620193
 TI    Computing back-calculation estimates of AIDS epidemic.
 DT    9602
 AU    Ding Y; Bureau of Biometrics, New York State Health Department, Albany;
       12237, USA.
 SO    Stat Med. 1995 Jul 30;14(14):1505-12. Unique Identifier : AIDSLINE
       MED/96000841
 AB    The method of back-calculation estimates the number of HIV infections
       from AIDS incidence data and projects future AIDS incidence. We explore
       a conditional likelihood approach for computing estimates of the number
       of HIV infections and the parameters in the epidemic density. This
       method is asymptotically equivalent to the usual likelihood method. The
       asymptotic normal distribution of the estimates facilitates the
       computation of confidence intervals. We compute standard deviations for
       the estimates of HIV incidence and project AIDS incidence from the
       underlying multinomial distributions. We illustrate the methods with
       applications to AIDS data in the United States.
 DE    Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/*EPIDEMIOLOGY  Confidence Intervals
       Disease Outbreaks/*STATISTICS & NUMER DATA  Forecasting  Human  HIV
       Seroprevalence/*TRENDS  Incidence  Likelihood Functions  Models,
       Statistical  United States/EPIDEMIOLOGY  JOURNAL ARTICLE

       SOURCE: National Library of Medicine.  NOTICE: This material may be
       protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).

