       Document 0464
 DOCN  M9610464
 TI    An investigation assessing the fraction of human immunodeficiency virus
       infection attributable to ethnic group variations in risk.
 DT    9601
 AU    Swan AV; Nicoll A; McGarrigle C; Noone A; Gill ON; PHLS Statistics Unit,
       London, UK.
 SO    Int J Epidemiol. 1995;24 Suppl 1:S15-20. Unique Identifier : AIDSLINE
       MED/96044461
 AB    Considerable speculation and a recent publication has suggested that
       much of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-1) infection in the subset
       of the UK population represented by women having babies in Metropolitan
       London is substantially imported from Africa. Other data are supportive
       of this hypothesis. Ades et al. (1992) concluded that the fraction of
       HIV seroprevalence, identified in a large London-based study using
       neonatal blood from the dried blood spots on Guthrie cards, attributable
       to mothers born in Africa was 92.4% with 95% CI: 82-100%. This is an
       important observation which requires confirmation. This paper reports on
       an attempt to do this with closely similar methodology using the
       Unlinked Anonymous Survey (UAS) of HIV-1 seroprevalence in pregnant
       women attending antenatal centres, together with data from the Office of
       Population Censuses and Surveys (OPCS) on the country of origins of
       mothers delivering in 1991 at the 15 London centres included in the UAS.
       As in Ades' analysis there appeared to be a strong association between
       centre prevalences and the proportions of women of African origin
       delivering at those centres. This was consistent with a high fraction of
       seroprevalence attributable to such women, but it was also clear that
       the assumptions required for the estimation of the attributable
       fractions were not fully met. Analyses modified to justify the
       assumptions produced attributable fraction estimates ranging from 44% to
       96% with lower 95% confidence limits 20% or less.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT
       250 WORDS)
 DE    Africa/ETHNOLOGY  Data Collection/METHODS  Demography  *Ethnic Groups
       Female  Human  HIV Infections/*ETHNOLOGY  HIV Seroprevalence/*TRENDS
       *HIV-1  Infant, Newborn  London/EPIDEMIOLOGY  Pregnancy  Risk Factors
       *Variation (Genetics)  JOURNAL ARTICLE

       SOURCE: National Library of Medicine.  NOTICE: This material may be
       protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).

