MORE BAD NEWS IN THE AIR: An Ozone 'Hole' Over the U.S. and Europe?
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    "It's taken an ozone hole over Kennebunkport to get the
President's attention."
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    The worst is not/So long as we can say, "This is the worst'," 
wrote Shakespeare, in what could be a motto for scientists 
monitoring ozone depletion. Researchers have been making dire 
predictions about the diminishing ozone layer for years, but the 
damage has consistently exceeded worst-case scenarios. Last week, 
brought more bad news: NASA announced the highest levels of 
ozone-depleting chemicals ever measureed. Especially alarming was 
the location of the chemicals, which destroy the earth's barrier 
against ultraviolet rays. Previously the damage primarily affected 
the unpopulated South Pole. Now it threatens populous areas of 
Canada, New England, Asia and Europe -- including London, Moscow and 
Amsterdam.
    The severity of the ozone loss left little room for political 
maneuvering. The Senate responded virtually overnight with a 96-0 
vote calling for an accelerated phase-out of chlorofluorocarbons 
(CFCs), the ozone-depleting chemicals widely used as solvents and 
refrigerants. "The Clean Air Act says clearly that if the problem 
gets worse, we must respond," said Tennessee Sen. Al Gore, sponsor 
of the amendment. "It's taken an ozone hole over Kennebunkport to 
get the president's attention." 
    Indeed, the White House quickly got on board: Environmental 
Protection Agency (EPA) chief William Reilly said the administration 
would support a speeded-up schedule. A detailed government proposal 
may appear as early as next week.
    The stakes couldn' be greater. Ozone loss, says Greenpeace ozone 
specialist Alexandra Allen, "now amounts to a threat to the future 
of all life on earth." Not only have CFC's continued to build up, 
but the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines has 
pumped ozone-depleting chemicals into the upper atmosphere.  
Reporting high levels of chlorine monoxide, an ozone dsstroyer 
derived from CFCs. NASA warned that an ozone "hole of the sort 
discovered above Antarctica in 1985 could develop in the Northern 
Hemisphere. Last week the United Nations Environmental Program 
(UNEP) issued a report outline the devastating consequences that 
could result from a 5 to 10 percent ozone depletion by the year 
2000. They include increased severity of HIV and herpes infections; 
an additional 300,000 cases of skin cancer each year worldwide; and 
1.6 million to 1.75 million more cases of cataracts. Researchers 
also predict that, because ultraviolet radiation seems to impede 
photosynthesis and protein formation, ozone loss could have a 
dramatic impact on world food production.
    NEW GOAL: In the years since the discovery of the Anarctica 
"hole," scientific findings have stayed one step ahead of efforts to 
limit CFC production. In 1987, nations signing the Montreal Protocol 
called for halving the output of the offending chemicals by the year 
2000. In 1990, as a sense of urgency grew, industrialized nations 
agreed to cease production by the end of the century. An upcoming 
meeting will likely move the goal up even further. The chemical 
industry -- at work on CFC substitutes -- has speeded up its own 
phaseout plans.
    The ozone crisis offerd the first evidence that human activity 
could actually threaten global systems. Environmental advocates 
believe the problem should sound a warning bell to scientists and 
policy planners who remain skeptical about the greenhouse effect, 
which theoretically could cause cataclysmic storms, droughts and 
heat waves."The effects of CFCs were not manifest for years, but 
when they came they fell like a ton of bricks,"says Michael 
Oppenheimer of the Environmental Defense Fund. "The same could be 
true with global warming. With both, there's a nasty combination of 
lag and irreversibility." And there's the rub. Even if all use of 
CFCs stopped tomorrow, the problem would continue: the ozone layer 
is not expected to recover fully before the middle of the next 
centure. NASA's resource team will be reporting again soon -- and 
there's little chance it will bring good news.
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    --ELOISE SALHOLZ with MARY HAGER for NEWSWEEK. 2/17/92

