THE NFL ANALYST v2.5 The 'NFL Analyst' is the football handicapping program for the person who doesn't like to spend hours typing in stats every week. The only stats the Analyst needs are the scores. The program rates each team using the theory that the difference in the abilities of any two teams will be reflected in their game scores. The program uses the scores and the teams' previous average rates ( initially set to 100 ) to calculate a weekly performance rate for each team. The Analyst then uses these rates to obtain new average rates. This new rate becomes the starting point to recalculate the weekly rates. The 'NFL Analyst' continues to recalculate the average rates until the difference between the old average rate and the newly calculated rate is less than a tenth of a point. TEAM CODES Throughout the program, I've tried to eliminate as much unneccessary typing as possible. Because of this I've installed a two letter code for each team. Whenever the program asks for a team name, all that's needed is to enter the team code. For most of the teams, the code is just the first two letters of their city name. Those teams with two city names such as Kansas City or New Orleans, use the first letter from each name. As with anything else, there are some exceptions. The entire code is listed below. Pay particular attention to DeNver, DEtroit, MiNnesota, MIami, PHiladelphia, PheoniX, GIants, JEts, RaMs, and RaiDers. If all this as you confused, don't worry. After a couple of weeks, it'll become easy. AT Atlanta NO New Orleans BU Buffalo RD L.A. Raiders CH Chicago GI N.Y. Giants CI Cincinnati MI Miami DA Dallas PH Philadelphia CL Cleveland NE New England DE Detroit PX Pheonix DN Denver JE N.Y. Jets GB Green Bay SF San Francisco HO Houston PI Pittsburg RM L.A. Rams TB Tampa Bay IN Indianapolis SD San Diego MN Minnesota WA Washington KC Kansas City SE Seattle If you are still having trouble, you might try changing the codes to something that you are more comfortable with. The team names and codes are stored in an ascii text file on your program disk. Pay particular attention to the spaces separating the columns in the text file, if you do decide to change an existing code. ADDING A TEAM As of this writing, there is some talk of expanding the National Football League. However, no mention is made as to how many teams will be added. Because of this I have had to make the Analyst very flexible. I have left room for 36 teams (an expansion of eight teams) in the disk file. To add a team, use a word processor or text editor to edit the file TEAMS.TXT on your program disk. Be sure to follow the same format for the text columns. (eg. Nnnnnnnnnnnnn cc 111 222) In this example 'N' stands for the letters in the team's name (note: only the first character is capitalized), 'c' represents the two letter team code, '1' represents the primary color and '2' stands for the secondary team color. These last two numbers are given in hex code. They can be obtained using CONTROL.ACC, the Atari control panel to find the appropriate colors for each new team. An interesting side effect of having to use a seperate disk file to store the team names and codes is that it is now possible to use the program to analyse any football league- college or even your local high school teams can be handicaped. I even intend to use it to handicap my fantasy football league. The disk file TEAMS.TXT must be rewritten to use the new teams. You can place this file into a seperate folder eg. COLLEGE, NCAA or PAC_10. when you run the Analyst use the file selector box to enter the correct path. Type in the name of the data file you want to store your team data in. DO NOT TYPE IN TEAMS.TXT. The program will create the data file in the current directory. On your program disk you'll notice file names such as NFL_1989.DAT. I suggest you use a variation of this format eg. NCAA1989.DAT, PAC_1989.DAT etc. In this way you'll always know the teams and year for each disk file. USING THE NFL ANALYST v 2.5 The 'NFL Analyst' consists of four disk files: the main program, ANALYST.PRG; the title screen, ANALYST.PI2 or ANALYST.PI3 (in the case of a monochrome screen) which can be created with any art program capable of saving the picture in uncompressed Degas format; the team name and codes file, TEAMS.TXT; and the data file, which is named by you and selected by using the standard Atari file selector box. The program will create a data file, if you wish to start a new one, but the predictions will usually be unreliable for about six weeks. Type in the name of the new file in the file selector box's edit line. I suggest that you make a duplicate copy of the previous year's datafile to start each new year. You should rename this file with the new year imbedded in the filename. In this way you will always be able to go back to previous years to see how a favorite team has progressed from year to year. The main program is menu driven with the main menu options as follows. A) Enter Schedule The NFL players strike in the 87 season taught me a lesson in writing a football handicapping program. Instead of having the entire season entered at the beginning of the season as was the case in the original 8-bit version of the Analyst, the schedules are entered each week along with the official point spread. These can be found in any major newspaper. The usual format for the listing is favored team, point spread and finally underdog. In addition, the home teams are usually listed in upper case letters, while the visiting teams are in lower case. Schedules are entered into the program in the same manner. Except that the team codes are substituted for the team names. When typing them into the program, remember to type them as they are in the paper, upper case (e.g. AT, BU, CL etc.) for home teams, lower case ( e.g. at, bu, cl etc.)for visitors. If a game is entered with two home or two away teams, the Analyst will erase the line. It will have to be reentered. If the point spread includes a half point, use the decimal .5 instead of 1/2. Should a game be entered incorrectly, pressing BACKSPACE will erase the last line. It is also possible to reenter the entire schedule for any week until that week's scores are inputed or the next week's schedule is entered. Because of the NFL's new schedule (17 weeks in 1990 and 18 weeks in 1991) I made the program very flexible in inputing the schedule. It is no longer necessary for every team to play each week. The program will except any number of games up to the number of teams divided by two. Pressing ESC will save the entered schedule and return you to the main menu. This feature is especially nice if you were to use the program to analyse college teams where the top teams might play some smaller college team that is not included in your database. B) Enter Scores Scores can be entered for any week once the program knows the schedule. Be sure that all the games for that week have been completed before any attempt is made to enter the scores. The Analyst will expect to go through the entire schedule, including the Monday night game. The program will print out the teams for each game. Type in the score for that team, then press return. If a mistake is made, pressing BACKSPACE will erase the last line. It can then be reentered. Pressing ESC on the first line will also take you back to the main menu without saving the scores. C) Analyse a Game Both this option and the next, Analyse a Team, utilize a bar graph to present their data. In each graph, the horizontal axis represents the weekly games, while the vertical axis represents the team rate scale. In addition, a dotted line is drawn at the 100 rate mark, designating the mean rate of all the teams. In 'Analyse a Game', the program compares the five week moving averages of any two teams. The moving average is also used to compute the game scores, printed at the bottom of the page. The moving average is calculated by taking each weekly performance rate and averaging it with the rates for the previous four weeks. A moving average is useful anywhere there are erratic fluctuations in data. It is used extensivly in stock market charts. By using it in the 'NFL Analyst' we can clearly see any change in a team's performance level. I decided on a five week average as a compromise. I wanted to account for a team's momentum, and still eliminate any fluke scores. The program will ask you to enter a home team and an away team. Use the team codes as when entering the schedule, uppercase for home teams, lower case for visitors. This is necessary because the program adjusts the five week averages to reflect home and away rates. To return to the main menu, press the ESC key at the prompt for entering the favored team. D) Analyse a Team This option is similar to the 'Analyse a Game' option except that it compares a single team's five week moving average with it's weekly performance rates. These rates are not adjusted in any way. The average rate for this team is printed at the bottom of the screen, along with it's home & away rates. In addition information about how the team performed against the spread and how accurately The Analyst was in predicting the team's previous games will be displayed in the lower portion of the screen. As in the 'Analyse a Game' option, to return to the main menu, press the ESC key. E) Rank NFL Teams This option lists the average rates of all the teams, sorted from high to low. The list will be printed to your printer if the printer option is enabled. F) Game Predictions As anyone, who has tried to predict the scores of a football game, will tell you "It ain't easy". Using a computer to predict the scores has both advantages and disadvantages. The biggest advantage is that it is fairly easy to calculate relative strengths by comparing how the teams perform against each other. On the other hand it is impossible for the computer to know the effects an injured player will have on a teams performance or if there is any extra motivational factors involved in the game (eg. team rivalries or a team needing the game to make the playoffs). I advise you to take this into concideration when using this program's predictions The Analyst uses a three star rating system when it calculates it's predictions. A star is awarded for each of the following conditions: 1) When the variation between the predicted score and the Las Vegas point spread is greater than four. 2) When the team that is predicted to 'beat the spread' has prevailed in at least 60% of it's previous games, while it's opponent has covered the points in less than 40% of their games. 3) When the NFL Analyst has correctly predicted 60% of the game results for each of the two teams in the game Over the course of a couple of football seasons, I have noticed a direct coerrelation between these criteria and the game outcomes, especially when two or more of the situations are met. When all three of the conditions are satisfied the program has not erred in two seasons. G) Report Card This option utilizes a bar graph to show the Analyst's prediction record for all the recorded weeks in the programs database. The verticle axis represents the percentage of correct picks, while the horizontal axis represents the recorded weeks. The red bar graphs show the percentage of correct game winners predicted. The blue graph show the percentage of correct picks against the Las Vegas spread. In addition to the graph, the lower portion of the screen displays the program's performance separated into each of the star catagories. The default for the weekly results is the last week in which scores were entered. This can, however, be changed by typing in the week you wish to view and then pressing [RETURN]. The letter grades displayed are based on an article that I read some time ago, which stated that in order to come out ahead in betting against the spread, you must be able to pick at least 57% of the games. I gave that a 'C' and scaled the rest of the grades accordingly. H) Exit This is self explanitory. I) Load Data This subroutine is called at the start of the program to load in the initial data. With this option you can load in data from a previous year or even change from the NFL to college teams without rebooting the program. J) Printer on/off This option will toggle the print option on and off. The Analyst normally will mirror the information from options E) Rank Teams and F) Game Predictions to your printer if it was turned on at the time you ran the Analyst. This option let's you decide if you want a printout or not. NOTE: In version 2.5s, which is the shareware version of the Analyst, options C,D, and F will only work for eight weeks. You can however get up to date with the scores by entering more than one week at a single sitting. The program still counts this as a one week. ODDS AND ENDS Of all the sporting events, I think that football might be the hardest to predict. The game can turn around too quickly with seven points awarded for a score. Any fumble or interception is a potential score and any offensive play can shift the momentum of game. This program was designed to be informative and, most of all, fun. I do not guarantee the predictions. Nor will I accept any liabilities for monies lost because of the predictions. Use of this program is strictly at your own risk. I do hope that you will find the program entertaining. I know that I am looking forward to the coming season. Especially with the Bills winning again. Gerry Genson