Date: Sun,  6 Jun 93 05:15:33    
From: Space Digest maintainer <digests@isu.isunet.edu>
Reply-To: Space-request@isu.isunet.edu
Subject: Space Digest V16 #690
To: Space Digest Readers
Precedence: bulk


Space Digest                Sun,  6 Jun 93       Volume 16 : Issue 690

Today's Topics:
                    ** CHARTS of solar ECLIPSES **
           1992 NASA Authorization Budget- shuttle (2 msgs)
                  Hey Sherz! (For real!) Cost of LEO
              Hey Sherz! (For real!) Cost of LEO  (Long)
                             Launch costs
         manifest destiny = US getting uppity again (3 msgs)
                   Virtual Music Workshop in London
                 Why are SSTO up-front costs rising?

	Welcome to the Space Digest!!  Please send your messages to
	"space@isu.isunet.edu", and (un)subscription requests of the form
	"Subscribe Space <your name>" to one of these addresses: listserv@uga
	(BITNET), rice::boyle (SPAN/NSInet), utadnx::utspan::rice::boyle
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----------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: 6 Jun 93 01:15:42 GMT
From: Frank ROUSSEL <rousself@cicb.fr>
Subject: ** CHARTS of solar ECLIPSES **
Newsgroups: sci.astro,sci.space,alt.binaries.pictures.d

IF MANY persons are interested in getting charts of solar eclipses
(1991-2000 years), i will put them on an anonymous FTP server.
(not done yet, but it depends on the number of persons interested)

This images will be available in GIF format, 512 width & 460 height.

-> So tell me if you want some of them <-


Below is an example (solar eclipse of May 1993):
(uudecode the part "begin... ...end")

begin 640 eclip93-5.gif
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end

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   _______       _______       ________   | Firstname: Frank
  /______/|     /______/\     /_______/|  | Lastname : ROUSSEL
 / ______|/    /  ____ \/|    |__   __|/  | E-mail: rousself@univ-rennes1.fr
/ /|           | |____| |/       | ||     | Telephone: + 33 99 83 26 10
| ||           |  __  __/        | ||     | 
| |\______     | || \ \\       __| ||__   | Address: 175, rue Belle Epine
\ \______/|    | ||  \ \\     /__| |/_/|  | CityStateZip: 35510
 \_______|/    |_|/   \_\|    |_______|/  | Cityname: CESSON SEVIGNE
    Centre de Ressources Informatiques    | Country: FRANCE
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------- Science without conscience is only soul's ruin (Rabelais) ------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- Signed: The responsible of ASTROGOF project at Rennes' University of France   -
- who contributes to the development of CRI-CICB Gopher's server (ASTRO images) -
-- by maintaining an astronomic ftp server 'ftp.cicb.fr' in /pub/Images/ASTRO  --
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------

Date: Sun, 6 Jun 1993 01:02:04 GMT
From: Henry Spencer <henry@zoo.toronto.edu>
Subject: 1992 NASA Authorization Budget- shuttle
Newsgroups: sci.space

In article <1umq2q$dhj@hsc.usc.edu> khayash@hsc.usc.edu (Ken Hayashida) writes:
>Advocates of DC-1 continue to state that DC-1 could replace the shuttle 
>system completely.  I seriously doubt that DC-1 could lift station 
>components.  When Von Braun was testifying before Congress to justify 
>the creation of the Saturn V, a Congressman asked why the mission 
>couldn't be flown with a bunch of Atlas vehicles instead.  His response 
>was that it  "would be like flying the Berlin Airlift with Piper Cubs."  

Of course, this was exactly how he and his crew were originally planning
to do (e.g.) lunar missions.  Take a look at the flight rates originally
planned for the Saturn I -- they assumed that things like lunar missions
(and space stations) would be done by in-orbit assembly using many Saturn
payloads.  The shift in strategy was due to Kennedy's deadline, not to
the bit-by-bit approach being fundamentally flawed.

By the same argument, Ken, clearly we shouldn't try to launch SSF on the
shuttle -- it takes too many flights and too much in-orbit fitting-out.
We should be buying one or two Energia launches for it instead.  The
*shuttle* can't lift the major SSF modules fully equipped.  (This is all
somewhat academic now, of course...)

Of course DC-1 can't lift something that was designed to strain the
shuttle's lift capabilities to the limit (in fact, beyond it, the way
things finally turned out...).  But it can lift smaller pieces, in
greater numbers, to do the same job.
-- 
Altruism is a fine motive, but if you   | Henry Spencer @ U of Toronto Zoology
want results, greed works much better.  |  henry@zoo.toronto.edu  utzoo!henry

------------------------------

Date: Sun, 6 Jun 1993 03:36:23 GMT
From: "Phil G. Fraering" <pgf@srl03.cacs.usl.edu>
Subject: 1992 NASA Authorization Budget- shuttle
Newsgroups: sci.space

steinly@topaz.ucsc.edu (Steinn Sigurdsson) writes:

>Might I beg to differ here a little and note that aerospace differs
>from most of the other fields in one small respect: that is the
>country that excels in aerospace can take the other fields back
>on a short time scale.
>You can kill people, directly, with aerospace, and do it fast enough
>that them embargoing your DRAMs is irrelevant. There honestly is more
>to this then business and employment.

One of the worst arguments I've ever seen on this group. If not for
the ethical side of things, or the historical context, then for the
simple fact that if you don't have any foundries left that can crank
out guidance chips...

(As if air power worked against the English...)

>|  Steinn Sigurdsson	|I saw two shooting stars last night		|
>|  Lick Observatory	|I wished on them but they were only satellites	|
>| steinly@lick.ucsc.edu |Is it wrong to wish on space hardware?		|
>| "standard disclaimer"	|I wish, I wish, I wish you'd care - B.B. 1983	|

--

+-----------------------+---------------------------------------+
|Phil Fraering          | "...drag them, kicking and screaming, |
|pgf@srl03.cacs.usl.edu | into the Century of the Fruitbat."    |
+-----------------------+-Terry Pratchett, _Reaper Man_---------+

------------------------------

Date: Sun, 6 Jun 1993 03:44:41 GMT
From: "Phil G. Fraering" <pgf@srl03.cacs.usl.edu>
Subject: Hey Sherz! (For real!) Cost of LEO
Newsgroups: sci.space

wingo%cspara.decnet@Fedex.Msfc.Nasa.Gov writes:

>I have seen a figure that each ET costs $31 million dollars. (This weeks
>Space News) So I bet the number is between Wales figure of $50 million
>and $75 million.

I think he was talking about the 70 million being a possible cost.
If they worked at making shuttle efficient, they might be able to
get it somewhere in that range. At least that was his argument. I'm
doubtful, but I wish they'd at least try...

I wonder how much they could auction the ET's for, and if they could
recoup anything from that.

>>I'm using those numbers for example purposes. I hope to find
>>some more accurate ones in my Quest to FTP the Whole Federal
>>Budget And Enlighten Ken Hayashida. (If I don't see any mean
>>nasty windmills along the way).

>Use any numbers that make you happy Phil

Not meant as a flame, but how are these numbers supposed to make
me happy?

Anyway, others have posted the numbers, and Ken's not reading my
posts since I flamed him back, so what would be the point.

>Dennis, University of Alabama in Huntsville

--

+-----------------------+"Somewhere in the back of her mind, she had always
|Phil Fraering          |had a vision of the Slowness as a stifling darkness
|pgf@srl03.cacs.usl.edu |lit at best by torches, the domain of cretins and
+-----------------------+mechanical calculators." - Vernor Vinge,
                                                 _A Fire Upon the Deep_

------------------------------

Date: 5 Jun 1993 22:59 CDT
From: wingo%cspara.decnet@Fedex.Msfc.Nasa.Gov
Subject: Hey Sherz! (For real!) Cost of LEO  (Long)
Newsgroups: sci.space

In article <1uqrrl$5q5@access.digex.net>, prb@access.digex.net (Pat) writes...
> 
>I am somewhat pleased to realize that Dennis and Allen can go
>Longer then fred and I even in our longest dialog.  Right fred?
> 
>Dennis says :
> 
>	GM Saturn...
> 
>	Dennis, I will read the article, but I think you may
>	be reading too much into the "Write- OFF" of the SATURN
>	R&D dollars, and Capital investment dollars.   
>	Saturn is at this point over 10 years old.  GM
>	has probably depreciated this Investment against
>	other Profits,  and now are merely conducting the final
>	writedown.
> 
>	Trust Me dennis.  IF companies had to conduct enormous
>	loss leading R&D,without a TRUE profit at the end of
>	the road,  they'd be out of business. ATT Bell labs were
>	the only organization that could just write off R&D dollars
>	like a federal facility.

Pat I will try to dig up the mag and give you the quotes. I trust you
implicitly pat but the fact is that this is exactly what GM did. I might
add that those guys are having big losses which is partially due to the
Saturn write off. It is not a depreciation but a write off according to
the article.  

What is of great interest is that Crysler is trying to beat the game with
their new car that the R&D only cost $1.3 billion dollars.  This is, in
my opinion the way to go in trying to bring down the costs of space flight.
I am about to get ahold of a really great study in launch costs being done
by some independents in our propulsion labs here at UAH. Their findings, if
I remember correctly is that bigger is better when it comes to getting
the costs down. Don't hold me to this however.


> 
>	The Japanese  ran for years without real profits, and now their
>	companies are barefoot economically, and ready to totally
>	unwind.  Despite all that wonderful capital gear they
>	have,  they are on the bare ragged edge, because they
>	lack financial depth.
> 
>	I think GM has merely conducted a final writedown of saturn
>	because it is now over 10 years old.  and if you notice,
>	their breakeven point is 300,000 units.
>

The Japanese made mucho profits in the 80's, to the tune of hundreds of
billions. This is why their economy is the second largest in the world with
only 2% of the population. Their current problem is primarily due to currency
devaluation relative to the US. The Yen was at 185 to the dollar in 1981 and
now is around 110. Big difference when they have to eat this rise in order
to remain market players.

No this is not what was stated in the article. It clearly stated that from
a corporate basis Saturn would never make a profit.  The profit at the
300,000 level is solely a profit on the marginal cost of production. This is
only for the Saturn unit. The corporation as a whole is losing money because
of the high labor cost per unit of production coupled with high R&D costs.

This is where I HOPE the DC series does its homework. Only if they can
contain the R&D costs AND contain the unit labor costs can the cost of
getting into orbit come down. It is unsettling that the estimated R&D costs
are rising like they are. If they cannot show similar reliability in a
250,000 lbs thrust class engine that has been touted for the RL-10 then,
it is my opinion that the cost of DC will only be marginally less than
shuttle while sacrificing all of the support hardware and engineering that
has gone into the satellites and payloads and experiments that currently
fly on the shuttle. Just as a note, watch the LE-7 program, it is a barometer
on what you can expect for the RL-2000. I hope that I am wrong here because
we do have the mitigating factor of recent turbopump advances PAID FOR BY 
THE SHUTTLE PROGRAM.

> 
>	Shuttle tile queries.
> 
>	I never read the Playboy article, on the shuttle, but i
>	remmeber AvWeek letters to the editor where people were
>	complaining about the total lack of margins in the STS.
>	STS was the first booster, to fly without an unmanned test.
>	and I remember the mission where they lost some tiles
>	off the top.  There were many a sweaty brow around Johnson
>	that week.
> 

Just shows what moue grande cajones John Young had to fly the beast. I remember
reading that his heart rate was never over 110 during launch. For Crippen
it was 165! I remember the first flight and that they did lose a bunch of
tiles. The shuttle improvements over the years led to Endeavour having
far fewer tiles and a far better thermal protection system that now is on
all of the birds. This technology directly feeds the DC program. The 
ballistics programs that Allen references were all for ablative systems,
ICBMS usually don't get reflown.

>	It might have been interesting on the STS if they had
>	built an expendable flight test vehicle,  that flew
>	on a delta, and produced thermal data and tile engineering
>	data.
> 

They did do some early work that flew on the X-15. The last flight 
carried a thermal protection system that almost totally failed. This led
to the development of the Tiles that we now see on the Shuttle.

>	DC-N engine scaling.
> 
>	I guess we'll have to wait and see.  fortunately they do
>	have some fall back positions.
> 
>	Allen.  Any idea if they will use the X vehicle after
>	finishing flight test to test Plug nozzles?
> 
>pat

Dennis, University of Alabama in Huntsville

------------------------------

Date: 05 Jun 93  09:10:50
From: David.Anderman@ofa123.fidonet.org
Subject: Launch costs
Newsgroups: sci.space

One of the most difficult things to convince space activists is that the space 
market is price elastic; i.e. customers come out of the woodwork when launch
costs drop. There's no problem convincing customers that point, however....

--- Maximus 2.01wb

------------------------------

Date: 5 Jun 1993 21:36 EST
From: David Ward <abdkw@stdvax.gsfc.nasa.gov>
Subject: manifest destiny = US getting uppity again
Newsgroups: sci.space

In article <C867ry.IHM@zoo.toronto.edu>, henry@zoo.toronto.edu (Henry Spencer) writes...
> 
>And to think we spared their headquarters when we burned Washington DC.
>Well, we won't make *that* mistake again...
> 
> 
>:-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-) :-)
>-- 
>Altruism is a fine motive, but if you   | Henry Spencer @ U of Toronto Zoology
>want results, greed works much better.  |  henry@zoo.toronto.edu  utzoo!henry

Jeez Henry --

Just as I was about to post a "In Defence of Henry (Like He Really
Needs It)" article -- something like:

Hey, He's (cap intended) a Canadian who happens to know more about
the state of American politics than the 2 sigma American.  BTW, I
would guess His predictions are probably better thought out than the
supposed "experts" seen locally on "The McLaughlin Group", etc.

Anyway, just as I'm getting ready to post, _Henry_ gets uppity (hmmm,
must be Stanley Cup time).

>
>We plan to rectify that this time.  Blasting the entire area within
>the Beltway clear down to bedrock ought to do it...
>
Sounds OK to me--as long as you stop at the Beltway (which lies two
miles to the west of my house).  Will you be kind enough to inform Pat
before the destruction, or will he be lost in the confusion?

Sorry for the minor BW waste, but I've hated sitting on the sidelines 
recently.  DC-X v. STS is not a thread that an "unmanned NASA engineer"
(read: not an expert on manned flight) should participate in, other 
than to say, "Yes, I am in favor of low-cost access to space."

David W. @ GSFC
An Avowed Toronto Blue Jays Hater, But Becoming a U. of Toronto Fan

------------------------------

Date: Sun, 6 Jun 1993 03:26:12 GMT
From: Mary Shafer <shafer@rigel.dfrf.nasa.gov>
Subject: manifest destiny = US getting uppity again
Newsgroups: sci.space

On Sat, 5 Jun 1993 22:57:32 GMT, henry@zoo.toronto.edu (Henry Spencer) said:

HS> Early in the morning of July 4, when most everybody down there is
HS> preparing to celebrate the anniversary of your insurrection
HS> against lawful authority, most of the Canadian Armed Forces will
HS> move swiftly to seize North Dakota.  They will bypass and contain
HS> major population centers, which could offer lengthy resistance
HS> anyway, and stick to seizing strategic assets.

HS> And I do mean strategic.  This one move will make us the world's
HS> third largest nuclear power.  Maybe the second, if Yeltsin's
HS> situation continues to go downhill.

HS> Now, in itself this wouldn't be very useful.  North Dakota
HS> otherwise isn't that interesting a place. :-)

How can you say this?  They've got the world's highest TV tower in
North Dakota.  We even drove out of our way to see it on our way
to Banff from Iowa, via Antler.

HS> However, we won't have to.  We plan to participate in a grand old
HS> US tradition: fireworks on the evening of the 4th.  You see, last
HS> time we burned Washington, our mistake was that we weren't
HS> *thorough* enough.  We plan to rectify that this time.  Blasting
HS> the entire area within the Beltway clear down to bedrock ought to
HS> do it...

Leave the National Air and Space Museum, I implore you!  And the
National Gallery of Art.  In fact, leave all the museums.  Spare the
Mall, since that's where all the museums are.  But take the Beltway
Bandits.

All this talk of burning Washington reminds me of the story about the
American who made some comment to an Englishman about the English
burning Washington.  The Englishman said, "Oh, no, we didn't burn
Washington.  Joan of Arc, yes, but not Washington."
--
Mary Shafer  DoD #362 KotFR NASA Dryden Flight Research Facility, Edwards, CA
shafer@ferhino.dfrf.nasa.gov                 Of course I don't speak for NASA
 "A MiG at your six is better than no MiG at all."  Unknown US fighter pilot

------------------------------

Date: 6 Jun 93 03:10:32 GMT
From: Henry Spencer <henry@zoo.toronto.edu>
Subject: manifest destiny = US getting uppity again
Newsgroups: sci.space

In article <5JUN199321361460@stdvax.gsfc.nasa.gov> abdkw@stdvax.gsfc.nasa.gov (David Ward) writes:
>>We plan to rectify that this time.  Blasting the entire area within
>>the Beltway clear down to bedrock ought to do it...
>>
>Sounds OK to me--as long as you stop at the Beltway (which lies two
>miles to the west of my house)...

Given the nature of the fireworks, I'm afraid I'd suggest watching from
a considerably greater distance, unless you truly have implicit faith in
the USAF's statements about their missiles' accuracy.  Personally, I think
I'd prefer to watch it on TV.  Australian TV.

>Will you be kind enough to inform Pat
>before the destruction, or will he be lost in the confusion?

We'll try to get the word out, but these things don't always work as planned.

We contemplated running a smash-and-grab raid on the Air&Space Museum --
whose loss is the one aspect of the destruction that I will personally
regret -- beforehand, but decided that might be too much of a giveaway.
-- 
Altruism is a fine motive, but if you   | Henry Spencer @ U of Toronto Zoology
want results, greed works much better.  |  henry@zoo.toronto.edu  utzoo!henry

------------------------------

Date: 6 Jun 93 00:34:31 GMT
From: psto <psto@hacktic.nl>
Subject: Virtual Music Workshop in London
Newsgroups: sci.space

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
                      S Y M B O L I C   C O M P O S E R
 
                           VIRTUAL MUSIC WORKSHOP
                           CITY UNIVERSITY LONDON
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
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tel +44-924-383 017 fax +44-924-291 008
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email 100024.1636@CompuServe.com
 
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Tonality Systems Amsterdam 
European Distribution
tel&fax +31-20-6757 993 
email psto@xs4all.hacktic.nl
 
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Allow 3 days of delivery. 1 day TNT Express shipping available on request.
 
Symbolic Composer was first introduced in London Virtual Reality Show 92 by
the UK Virtual Reality User Group. Demonstration music consisted of recursive
AIDS RNA mappings and 10-dimensional superstrings.
 

------------------------------

Date: 5 Jun 1993 22:00 EST
From: David Ward <abdkw@stdvax.gsfc.nasa.gov>
Subject: Why are SSTO up-front costs rising?
Newsgroups: sci.space

In article <1993Jun6.010026.12072@iti.org>, aws@iti.org (Allen W. Sherzer) writes...
> 
>Well so far, I think it looks good. I think the lesson isn't that
>organizations are angels or devils but that the deciding factor is the
>rules of the game. DC is working because SDIO picked good rules for the
>game. Should NASA change the rules, they will have my wholeharted support.
>In fact, this is why I have lobbied for Goldin so that can happen.
> 

Allen --

Forgive me if this has come up before, but I am interested in your list
of the correct rules that the DC-X program is following, and that the
general NASA culture does not.  I'm pretty sure I've picked up some of
your (and others') list, but I'd appreciate a summary (this might become
a FAQ).  I'd also like to know a bit more about what you thought of
Ken Jenks' appropriate article on improving the NASA infrastructure
(and Ken, a belated "Congratulations" on becoming an engineer again).

I would start a summary of your list (of the things DC-X is doing right):
1.  Experimentation
2.  Small Core Team Atmosphere
3.  Streamlined Procurement
4.  Progressive Development (scaling up to DC-1)

Tell me if I'm on the right track--and what I'm missing. Id appreciate
other's comments as well.

>  Allen

David W. @ GSFC

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End of Space Digest Volume 16 : Issue 690
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