Date: Mon, 26 Apr 93 05:40:20 From: Space Digest maintainer Reply-To: Space-request@isu.isunet.edu Subject: Space Digest V16 #489 To: Space Digest Readers Precedence: bulk Space Digest Mon, 26 Apr 93 Volume 16 : Issue 489 Today's Topics: Commercial Space News #22 Space Advertising (2 of 2) Welcome to the Space Digest!! Please send your messages to "space@isu.isunet.edu", and (un)subscription requests of the form "Subscribe Space " to one of these addresses: listserv@uga (BITNET), rice::boyle (SPAN/NSInet), utadnx::utspan::rice::boyle (THENET), or space-REQUEST@isu.isunet.edu (Internet). ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: 24 Apr 93 12:50:52 From: Wales.Larrison@ofa123.fidonet.org Subject: Commercial Space News #22 Newsgroups: sci.space COMMERCIAL SPACE NEWS/SPACE TECHNOLOGY INVESTOR NUMBER 22 This is number twenty-two in an irregular series on commercial space activities. The commentaries included are my thoughts on these developments. Sigh... as usual, I've gotten behind in getting this column written. I can only plead the exigency of the current dynamics in the space biz. This column is put together at lunch hour and after the house quiets down at night, so data can quickly build up if there's a lot of other stuff going on. I've complied a lot of information and happenings since the last column, so I'm going to have to work to keep this one down to a readable length. Have fun! CONTENTS: 1- US COMMERCIAL SPACE SALES FLATTEN IN 1993 2- DELTA WINS TWO KEY LAUNCH CONTRACTS 3- COMMERCIAL REMOTE SENSING VENTURE GETS DOC "GO-AHEAD" 4- INVESTMENT FIRM CALLS GD'S SPACE BIZ "STILL A GOOD INVESTMENT" 5- ARIANE PREDICTS DIP IN LAUNCH DEMAND 6- NTSB INVESTIGATES PEGASUS LAUNCH OVER ABORTED ABORT 7- ANOTHER PEGASUS COMPETITOR IS ANNOUNCED 8- GEORGIA LAUNCH SITE DROPPED FROM PLANNING 9- SPAIN'S CAPRICORNIA LAUNCHER STILL PROCEEDING 10- PACASTRO SIGNS LAUNCH RESERVATION WITH SWEDISH SPACE CORP 11- CHINA AND TAIWAN JOINT SATELLITE VENTURE REPORTED 12- SOUTH KOREA ANNOUNCES NATIONAL MOVE INTO SPACE TECHNOLOGIES 13- SPACE TECHNOLOGY INDEXES THROUGH MARCH FINAL NOTES ARTICLES -------------------------------------------------------------------- 1- US COMMERCIAL SPACE SALES FLATTEN IN 1993 The US Department of Commerce projects US commercial space sales will remain flat in 1993, with current data showing only a 2 percent growth over 1992. As published in "US Industrial Outlook 1993" (which was released in January), revenues from the 1993 US space business are currently projected to be about $4,890 M. In contrast to previous years when US commercial space sales had shown double digits growth rates, this year's projected results are driven by the US satellite manufacturing industry, where sales are projected to drop from 12 satellites worth $1,300 M in 1992 to 7 satellites worth $ 670 M in 1993. The US Industrial Outlook also projects U.S. commercial launchers faces flat demand in coming year, and while predicting that 1993 revenues will increase 10 percent to $450 M, future sales will be "adversely affected by the downward revision in Department of Defense launch plans." Offsetting flat launch revenues and satellite deliveries, revenues for fixed and mobile satellite services are projected to increase to $1,900 M, primarily driven by increased revenues from broadcast and cable TV networks. Similarly, remote sensing products and sales are projected to increase to $250 M in 1993 (up 15%). US COMMERCIAL SPACE REVENUES 1989 1990 1991 1992(r) 1993(e) Commercial satellites 900 1,000 1,100 1,300 670 Satellite services 750 800 1,200 1,500 1,900 Fixed (700) (735)(1,115)(1,275) (1,520) Mobile (50) ( 65)( 85)( 225) ( 380) Satellite ground equip 790 860 1,350 1,400 1,560 Mobile equipment (40) (85) (280) (352) ??? Commercial launches 150 570 380 450 450 Remote sensing data and services 125 155 190 215 250 Private microgravity research lab -- -- -- -- 60 ===== ===== ====== ===== ===== TOTAL ANNUAL REVENUES 2,715 3,385 4,220 4,815 4,890 (r) = revised data for 1992 (e) = estimated data for 1993 [Commentary: This is the first look at how the US commercial space industry is expected to do in 1993. In general, not a bad report -- with most of the bad news concentrated in the satellite manufacturing area. There, changes of only a few satellites worth $100 M or so apiece can substantially influence the annual projection. If we look forward over several years, this market sector should retain strong sales as US firms have been very successful in regaining international market share in the satellite business. Furthermore, sales of satellite ground equipment should go up in the next revision of this data, expected to be released about mid- year. Data on mobile satellite ground equipment sales (including such items as GPS receivers and portable satellite terminals) appears to be missing from the January data set. DoC usually publishes a listing of "Space Business Indicators" in mid-year, and the next revision of commercial space revenues should be released then. I expect the revised revenues should easily top $5,000 M, if the mobile satellite ground equipment are added back into the numbers, and the year should show about a 10% overall market growth. Looking beyond this year's data, future markets look quite promising. The DoC projects satellite service revenues could top $3,000 M by 1995 if new mobile satellite services and direct broadcasting are implemented as planned, and that mobile satellite station sales are expected to continue to growth at 15-20 % per year through the mid 1990's. My numbers are somewhat more pessimistic for near-term market growth, but I agree the trend should be for substantial growth in US commercial space sales over at least the next 5-10 years. (My pessimism is due to more conservative assumptions on market capture and growth in LEO communications and satellite direct broadcasting services. I don't believe all of the current players in the yet-to-be-born LEO communications satellite market and in the yet-to-be-proven direct broadcasting market will be financial successes, nor that sales growth will be as explosive as currently projected.) It should also be noted this year's DoC data is the first release to show revenues from privately funded microgravity research facilities. The $60 M shown in the Janurary data is primarily for the Spacehab module, planned for launch in April on the Space Shuttle, but also hidden in these numbers are the projected first sales from the COMET orbital launch and recovery experiment module.] 2- DELTA WINS TWO KEY LAUNCH CONTRACTS McDonnell Douglas Corporation, which builds and markets the Delta launch vehicle has won two important launch contracts. Motorola Inc. announced in mid February that it had selected the Delta to launch most of the satellites in the 66-satellite Iridium LEO communications constellation, and in mid April, McDonnell Douglas was awarded the USAF Medium Launch Vehicle III contract. The launch services contract with Motorola for the Iridium constellation launch is for at launch of least 45 Iridium satellites. Another 21 satellites have been contracted to be launched by Khrunichev Enterprise in Russian on 3 Proton vehicle launches. These 45 satellites planned for the Delta will be launched 5 at a time, providing for at least 9 launches. Additional satellites in the Iridium constellation, such as a planned on-orbit spares, may also be launched on Delta. Although details of the launch services contract were reported to be negotiation, and not yet final. The USAF MLV contract also went to MDC, bidding a variant of their Delta II launcher. This contract is only initially worth $7.5 million, but establishes a set of launch options for up to 36 launches, encompassing launches from 1996 through 2002. These launches will deploy the next generation of the USAF's Global Positioning System Block IIR navigation satellites, plus other programs. First option for to meet the USAF launch options is expected to be exercised this year, after which the USAF is expected to request launches of up to 6 Deltas per year for at least 6 years. Under this contract the USAF can also request "launch on demand" services from MDC for the 1996-2002 time period, with a launch to occur within 40 days of the request. [Commentary: If these two contracts are fulfilled, they should provide an excellent business base for MDC's Delta launch program through the turn of the century. Combined, these two contracts have a potential for about 45 launches, worth about $2,200 M to MDC, and sustaining a core business base of $300-400 M/year. Other contracts for international and commercial payloads, as well as for NASA Medium ELV-class payloads, will add to this business base -- keeping MDC as a viable commerical launch company. However, it should be noted there are risk elements in these contracts. Motorola's Iridium LEO communications constellation has not yet received a US Federal Communications Commission license for operation in the U.S., nor has Motorola lined up all the financing and financial partners for the Iridium venture. Without these approvals or financial backing there will be no Iridium launches. But, hopefully, these uncertainties will be settled this year. Similarly, the USAF MLV III program has been the target of several Congressional actions which have slowed the production of the GPS Block IIR satellites and deleted the funding for the MLV III program in favor of the USAF NLS/"Spacelifter" program. At this time, while it appears the MLV III contract will be executed, future funding for the MLV III and other USAF commercial launch contracts is being reconsidered as part of national space launch strategy reviews. Some opinions expressed from within the Administration and Congress propose cancellation of all "ELV upgrade" programs (including the MLV programs) in favor of the proposed "Spacelifter" program. Such opinions may have some weight in this year's budget deliberations, particularly as DoD funds will be more difficult to find in the shrinking US Defense budget.] 3- COMMERCIAL REMOTE SENSING VENTURE GETS DOC "GO-AHEAD" The first commercial license to operate a remote sensing satellite was approved in early February by the US Department of Commerce's Office of Space Commerce. A license was granted to WorldView Imaging Corporation of Oakland, California to build and operate a pair of LEO imaging satellites to provide multi-spectral images of the Earth. [Commentary: There has been little data released on this venture by WorldView and the DoC, other than the announcement of the operating and construction license. This was reported to be at the request of WorldView. Most industry speculation identifies this new venture as a "Star Wars" spinoff, using SDI-type technology to provide digital Earth sensing data, and heavily integrated into digital GIS databases for remote sensing/GIS users. Most probable customers for this service include exploration geologists, agricultural planners, and urban planners. It is noteworthy this is the first commercial venture under the 1992 Land Remote Sensing Policy Act. The Act, as passed last November, provides that remote sensing data gathered from private remote sensing craft may be sold to users at differing prices. Prior to this act, remote sensing data from all satellites had to be sold to all users at the same prices, and private remote sensing ventures would have had to sell at the government-set Landsat data prices. There are rumors of several other potential commercial remote sensing ventures working their way through the system at different stages of development. I think the large Landsat and SPOT satellite systems will provide the majority of the satellite remote sensing data market for the next decade or so. In contrast to these large, government-sponsored remote sensing systems, smaller market ventures such as WorldView and others can exploit market niches and use innovative technology, and I believe, can find profitability on the margin. I predict there may be some very interesting ventures appearing in the next year or so.] 4- INVESTMENT FIRM CALLS GD'S SPACE BIZ "STILL A GOOD INVESTMENT" Wall Street investment house Morgan Stanley thinks General Dynamic's Space Systems Division could still be a moneymaker, despite having failed in the last 3 Atlas launches. In a recent analyst's report Morgan Stanley said "We are more than ever convinced that if the company can return the Atlas to its historical 95%-plus success rate, this will become a highly profitable, cash- generating unit." Based upon discussions with GD's corporate management, Morgan Stanley projects that if the Atlas problems are cleared up the unit could see $70 M in earnings per year by 1995 and $100 M per year by 2000. This is based upon GD's projection of capturing about 10 Atlas launches per year on the world market. [Commentary: Three failures in a row of their launch system has hurt General Dynamic's Space Systems Division. Since GD has restructured to only keep a very few profitable core businesses, many market pundits have been speculating GD's space business might be next to be sold. The Morgan Stanley report indicates GD's Space Systems Division has some potential as a moneymaker, despite current problems -- if they can get their act together. Sales are projected to be about $560 M in 1993, which will probably generate a loss of about $25 M. If GD can capture their projected share of the space launch market, and if they have managed to clean up the reliability of their Atlas launchers, then they could generate healthy profits from those sales. But until they demonstrate the Atlas Centaur program is back on track, this division will continue to show substantial losses. In response to the sell-off rumors, in my opinion, this operation is not a really good candidate for takeover and quick profitability. To do such a takeover, the current set corporate and divisional management would be replaced with another set from outside the firm. In GD SSD's case, to get the division back on track, the management team will have to concentrate hard on the technical problems with the Atlas Centaur, as well as in selling Atlas services. This would indicate only another firm with experience in rocket launch operations could find such talent in-house, and be able to convince customers to buy their launch services. Optimally, the firm would have substantial liquid rocket experience, and experience in marketing space technology internationally as well. Candidates for this might be TRW, Rockwell, Lockheed, and Martin, and possibly McDonnell Douglas and Boeing. But most of those firms have cash flow problems (MDC), have had a substantial business contraction (Boeing and MDC), are involved with other launch firms (Lockheed), or have taken on substantial debt (Martin). And coming up with the $700-1500 M purchase price for the division is a big chunk of change for any company.] 5 - ARIANE PREDICTS DIP IN LAUNCH DEMAND Arianespace, the operator of the Ariane launch system, is projecting a dip in launch demand in the late 1990's. In early February, Arianespace released their annual market survey, which detailed their projection of the space transportation market for the next decade. Over short run, Arianespace expects to retain their dominant position and sustain a majority share of the launch market. Of 54 international and commercial launches planned through 1995, Ariane holds contracts for 31, General Dynamics' Atlas vehicle holds 14 contracts, McDonnell Douglas' Delta holds 7, and Great Wall's Long March vehicle holds 2 launch contracts. Three-quarters of future launch contracts for which Ariane can compete are projected to come from communications satellites with the remaining 25% split between weather, Earth observation, and scientific satellites. Most of the future telecommunications demand growth is predicted to come from the Asia/Pacific region. Arianespace expects the current market consolidation of individual satellite operators into regional or national groups will continue, with these groups investing in heavier satellites with larger communications payloads carrying more transponders. Arianespace predicts the average mass of telecommunications satellites should increase by 20 % over today's average level, to about 3000 kg in GEO. Demand for commercial launch services is expected to remain strong over the next three years, but in the second half of the decade, Arianespace predicts demand will decrease. Arianespace bases this prediction upon a matching of satellite transponder demand and supply, particularly as new data compression techniques appear to could double or triple transponder capacity using existing or near-term transponders. One of the significant possible changes in the market was identified as the arrival of new launch vehicles, including Russian launch systems. But Arianespace predicts that in the long term, investors purchasing launch services are looking for the best trade off between launch service quality and price, and that Russian and other new launch services will have to prove out their capabilities and service quality, and their market penetration will be minimal. [Commentary: Ariane releases their market surveys annually, and I reported on their prior market survey in a past issue of CSN/STI. Comparing the two surveys, there aren't outstanding differences in the numbers. The most notable change is the consideration of new data compression techniques, reducing the demand for new physical transponders on orbit. I note that in contrast to some predictions, demand for space- based communications transponders appears to be remain strong. While fiber optic lines are making substantial inroads into the established point-to-point telecommunications markets, growing demand for telecommunications services world wide and for point-to- multipoint broadcast services have prevented a decrease in space transponder demand. Fiberoptic cables provide a higher capability service, but only from established point A to established point B. To establish a fiberoptic link it is necessary to install cable between the points, and while there are improved network solutions, installing a large network of distributed fiberoptic links can cost millions or billions of dollars. For broadcast services where there is not an existing ground network structure, satellites still offer the most cost effective solution. And if new services are required into a new region, it is cheaper to install a small satellite link costing only a few tens of thousands of dollars and tie into the existing global satellite network. This allows rapid growth of new satellite services, and has kept demand high. The replacement market for fiberoptics is growing as well, since as demand grows between the points serviced, it becomes cost effective to later install a fiberoptic link to handle the increase in traffic. Since the telecommunications and data transfer markets are still growing rapidly, satellite market projections remain rosy. But satellites are also getting longer orbital lifetimes. Current generation satellites are now getting guarantees of at 15 years of on-orbit service or more, in contrast to 10 years of service from last generation's satellites. This has cut back some of the launch demand, as satellite owners are rescheduling replacement satellite launches over longer intervals. And as last note; Arianespace didn't flag it this year, but it looks like the space transportation market will be rather over- supplied by existing launch systems in the near term. The annual commercial launch demand is for about 15-20 medium sized satellites per year. From the supply side, Ariane is capable of launching up to about a dozen medium sized satellites a year, Delta is capable of about 9-12 per year, Atlas is capable of 6-12, Long March 4-8, Japan's H-Vehicle 2-4, Russia's Proton capable of 8, and other systems such as Zenit and Soyuz another 10-20 medium launches per year. That's a lot of capability for a small market. We can only expect the competition to intensify for commercial launches.] 6- NTSB INVESTIGATES PEGASUS LAUNCH OVER ABORTED ABORT The 9 Feb Pegasus launch by Orbital Sciences Corporation has spawned an investigation over an apparent violation of range safety rules. A valid abort order from a NASA range safety officer to halt the mission was overridden and the Pegasus was launched in violation of range safety rules. In the last few minutes of the Pegasus launch countdown, one of two abort command receivers aboard the Pegasus failed. Such a failure typically scrubs a launch,and a NASA range safety officer at Wallops Island, VA issued a mission abort order about a minute before the scheduled Pegasus launch. Somehow this command was overridden by the OSC launch team or the message was lost in the communications channels, and the Pegasus was launched despite the valid abort call. Fortunately, the Pegasus functioned as expected, and the abort command receiver was not needed. But this incident did spark an investigation since a valid abort order was given under agreed-to launch constraint rules, and was not obeyed. Leading the investigation is the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) with support from NASA, OSC, and the Air Force. This investigation marks the first time NTSB has taken the lead on an incident involving a space launch. According to the NTSB, their investigation will take about 6 months, and is primarily looking at lines of authority, communications links and safety procedures used in the launch. [Commentary: This is the first time that the NTSB has led an investigation into a space launch. Their leadership was requested by the Department of Commerce's Office of Commercial Space Transportation, who had licensed the commercial launch. At the time of writing this column, some of the initial investigations have been concluded, and some of the results are starting to leak out into the trade press. Apparently, 3 or four different communications channels were in use during the test. After the abort destruct receiver stopped responding, the NASA test director and range controller in the Mission Control room at Wallops Island gave abort orders about a minute before the launch. According to the mission rules, this should have stopped the launch. Somehow, the OSC test conductor ordered the abort reversed, and the NASA communicator on the net relayed that order to the B-52 carrying the Pegasus at about 22 seconds before launch. Differing explainations of exactly how this happened are proposed -- with the best set being that clear lines of communications and clear definition of the responsibilities of the mission control team, and understanding of the mission rules were not established before the launch. As we see more and more commercial launches, more of these procedural issues are going to crop up and will have to be resolved. This case is interesting because it is the first time the NTSB has been called in to investigate a commercial launch problem (as they do with commercial aircraft problems). I think this problem will turn out to be primarily problems with procedures and communications, and will be cleared up with issuance of guidelines on how launch communications should be set up and how specific lines of authority should be delineated.] 7- ANOTHER PEGASUS COMPETITOR IS ANNOUNCED Tsniimach Enterprise in Russia announced it is marketing a new small space launch system, based upon converted ICBM components. Two versions of the launcher are being marketed: the "Aerokosmos" winged vehicle launched like the OSC Pegasus, and the "Severkosmos", launched from a mobile ground transporter. The Aerokosmos is projected to deliver 900 kg to a 200 km circular orbit or 580 kg to an 800 km circular orbit, and the Severkosmos to be capable of 430 kg to 200 km orbits and 225 kg to 800 km. Also proposed to be used with these launch systems is a LEO data relay system called 'Sineva'. Tsniimach Enterprise is described as a ex-military establishment, focusing on aerodynamics and thermal protection of spacecraft and which has participated in the development of the Buran shuttle system, They are located near the NPO Energia facility in Kaliningrad, outside of Moscow. [Commentary: There's very little released information on this new venture. My suspicion is it is another Russian enterprise looking for hard currency and trying to capitalize upon their in-house knowledge of ex-Soviet launch systems. It adds to the list of numerous commercial space startups announced from the ex-Soviet Union. This one's a little different in that they are offering variants of ex-Soviet ICBMs, but I can't identify any key customers being targeted or substantial financial backing.] 8- GEORGIA LAUNCH SITE DROPPED FROM PLANNING In late January, Georgia Tech Research Institute released the results of a preliminary study on the feasibility of a commercial rocket launching site in Camden County, Georgia at the old Kingsland Missile Test Launching Site on the Atlantic coast. The preliminary study recommended the site not be pursued as a commercial launch site, stating reopening the site was not feasible due to projected low investment returns, plus environmental and other geographic considerations. However, the report did say the site might be ideal for other aerospace uses, and recommended other potential uses. [Commentary: This should put the nails in the coffin of the Kingsland Commercial Launch Site. While other sites are still proceeding with commercial launch site development plans, Kingsland found without a key customer to act as anchor tenant, and if substantial infrastructure had to be put in, then the expected returns were too low to justify the cost of development. This might point out some key discriminators in judging the feasibility of a commercial launch site. These include: - Is there an identified key customer to provide core usage sufficient to recover setup costs? - Is there a market advantage of using the site? - Can existing infrastructure be used or modified at the site? - Can financing be found at low enough cost to support the investment? Other commercial launch site ventures -- including those at Woomera, Poker Flat, Cape York, White Sands, Alabama Off-Shore Platform, Hawaii, and Vandenberg have to also be judged against these criteria. In my opinion, some of these ventures are flying on hope and speculation, and not on sound financial grounds.] 9- SPAIN'S CAPRICORNIA LAUNCHER STILL PROCEEDING In one of his last official acts, former President Bush authorized space technology transfer for several joint space ventures between US and other firms. One of these was a proposed use of US technology by Spain to build a small booster. With that regulatory impediment removed, the 3-stage Capricornia launch vehicle will start development later this year, planning for a first launch in the 1995/96 time period. The Capricornia is described as a small 3-stage all solid booster designed to put 250-500 Kg into LEO. Several launch sites are being examined for the system, including 2 on the Iberian peninsula and 1 on the Canary Islands. Originated by INTA in Spain, the project reports it has $ 30 M in development funding, and will use technology from Argentina's Condor launch vehicle as well as from the US. [Commentary: Several firms have identified a market opportunity in providing a small launcher for the European market. Small payloads from European firms or organizations currently use either Ariane piggyback launches or the US/Italian Scout launcher. However, Ariane piggyback opportunities are limited, and the Scout program is being phased out (accompanied by some disarray in the Italian government and space industry regarding any follow-on system). This has left an apparent niche for a new European small launch system. Surprisingly enough, ESA has not supported development of such a system within the current space funding structure. Studies have been performed by British Aerospace, Aerospatiale, Deutsche Aerospace, and Italian organizations, but with the exception of the Swedish/PacAstro system (reported below), I have not been able to find any other European development work with even a rumor of funding for hardware. Also of interest is the linking of the Capricornia to the Argentinian Condor launcher. There have been some interesting rumors surfacing out of Argentina over the past year about a space launcher/IRBM program funded under the military junta which ruled the country in the 1970's and early 1980's. What is known is in Feb 1992, the Argentinian Air Force formally transferred control of the Condor 2 missile program to the new civilian Argentinian national space agency (Comison Nacional de Atividades Espaciales - CNAE). The Condor 2 program was described as originating in 1983, expanding upon the smaller Condor 1 rocket program in collaboration with Egypt and with support of German firms. The Condor 2 was also reportedly funded indirectly by Iraq in the mid-1980's. Fairly large solid rocket motors were built and tested, but Argentinan development of a suitable guidance package lagged that of the propulsion system. It should be noted CNAE is planning to launch its first scientific satellite in late 1994. The US$ 9 M, 181 Kg, SAC-B satellite will study the Earth's upper atmosphere and includes cooperative experiments from Italy and the US. No launch vehicle has yet been selected, but OSC's Pegasus and the Russian Burlak Air launched rocket are reported to be strong contenders for this contract.] 10- PACASTRO SIGNS LAUNCH RESERVATION WITH SWEDISH SPACE CORP PacAstro, a small launch firm in Herndon, Virginia announced in late February it had received a $6 M launch reservation contract from the Swedish Space Corp to launch a satellite on PacAstro's PA-2 launch vehicle. This will be performed as part of the Polar Satellite Service (PSS), a joint Norwegian Space Center/ Swedish Space Corp. program to upgrade the Andoya Rocket Range in Norway and offering small satellite launches into the polar regions. According to PacAstro, PSS is also performing an $8 M upgrade of the Andoya launch facilities, including a new integration facility and a fully- enclosed vertical assembly building for small launch vehicles like the PacAstro PA-2. PacAstro has been chosen as "the main alternative rocket supplier" for the small satellite launch service to be offered by PSS from Andoya. The date of the launch of the Swedish satellite was not specified. [Commentary: PacAstro has been trying to line up customers and funding for their launch vehicle for some time now. The PA-2 is a small, two stage rocket fueled by RP-1 and Liquid Oxygen. From PacAstro's literature, the engines designed for the PA-series rockets are built of "off the shelf" components based upon the Lunar MOdule Descent Engines built by TRW, and are capable of putting a 225 Kg satellite into a 750 km circular polar orbit. PacAstro is trying to arrange construction financing for its first three PA-2 vehicles, with a first launch planned for 1995, and 2 orbital launches planned for 1996. My records show PacAstro hired TRW to provide marketing support and systems design, with primary engineering to be done by AeroAstro, a small satellite builder closely associated with PacAstro (headquartered in the same building). The Swedish Space Corporation would supply engineering, launch operations, vehicle subsystems, and marketing support. Sumitomo Corp. of Tokyo, is a first round investor and sits on the board of directors. PacAstro has gotten a first round financial package of at least $550 K (Some sources place this of high as $1 M), but has been searching for about a year for the additional $20-30 M needed to design, build and launch their first set of vehicles. The launch reservation from SSC can possibly be used to help bring some investors on board, but by my estimate, they will need much more than the single $6 M sale to put their venture into real hardware.] 11- CHINA AND TAIWAN JOINT SATELLITE VENTURE REPORTED In early March, it was reported a joint satellite communications venture between a Taiwanese and mainland Chinese was in the works. As reported in the Taipei press, China Development Corp. (CDC), headquartered in Taiwam and with links to the ruling Nationalist Party, is planning to set up a joint venture in Hong Kong with China Great Wall Industry Corp. with the objective of launching a regional communications satellite. CDC would cover about 10% of the satellite system cost (US $10 M) in exchange for rights to 10% of the satellite's communications channels. [Commentary: This announcement came close on the heels of the release of Taiwanese plans for space development (released in mid January). In those plans, the National Space Program Office of Taiwan will launch 3 satellites, starting with ROCSAT-1, a 400 Kg scientific spacecraft, planned for launch in 1997. Two additional satellites are planned, both communications satellites. TRW has been helping Taiwan plan this program, budgeted at T$13.6 B (US $530 M) through 2006. I haven't been able to establish any relationship between this venture and those of the NSPOT, but there might be a connection. While Taiwan has the financing to pursue several ventures, the current Taiwanese telecommunications market might not support two separate sastellite ventures. The reported name for the Tiawanese/Chinese system is "Asiasat- 2", but I don't thinks this has any relationship with the existing Hong Kong-based "Asiasat" program involving Chinese, Hong Kong, and other Asian investors, other than using it as an organizational model. There are some obvious advantages to pursuing such a joing venture -- it could provide excellent first-hand experience to Taiwan for a very low cost, which then can be used in later satellite ventures. But there are internal political issues between Taiwanese and Chinese ventures, but putting any joint venture through a Hong Kong intermediary corporation might allow it to proceed. In any case, the East Asian satellite market is lighting up with substantially growth projected in space services and revenues. This is just another indicator to add to the list.] 12- SOUTH KOREA ANNOUNCES NATIONAL MOVE INTO SPACE TECHNOLOGIES South Korea's Trade, Industry and Resources Ministry recently announced plans to invest US$22 B in research and development and another US$17 B into manufacturing and research facilities for advanced aerospace technologies. Space technologies have been specifically targeted as part of this program, beginning with manufacture and launch of an advanced multi-purpose satellite by 1997. The objective of this investment is to raise South Korea's aerospace technology to the level of the world's top 10 countries by 2000. [Commentary: South Korea has been quietly working to develop its national aerospace industry, specifically including space activities. I'm noting this as a flag that potential new players are coming into the commercial space market. As part of their national effort, 2 national telecommunications satellites for Korea Telecom will be launched in April and Oct 1995 on Delta. Designated Koreasat 1 and 2, the platforms will provide television and telephone service throughout the Korean Peninsula, southwestern Japan and portions of China bordering North Korea. South Korea launched its first small satellite piggyback on Ariane in Aug 1992, called Uribyol-1 (Our Star) and costing about US $8.8 M. Uribyol-2 is planned for piggyback launch in October of this year, again on Ariane, and will be entirely "made in Korea." Uribyol-3, projected for a 1995 launch, will be an environment- monitoring micro-satellite. This satellite may be the precursor to a series of small Earth observation satellites, The KEOS (Korean Earth Observation System) project, which has been submitted for approval to the South Korean government, would use two or three 300-kg spacecraft equipped with optical and microwave sensors. South Korean press reports claim there is also a parallel military effort to establish the capabilities for building and launching small military satellites by 2001. Supposedly a government panel had been established to oversee such an effort, funded at US $ 500 M between 1993 and 2001, in anticipation of an expected pullout of U.S. intelligence-gathering systems from the Korean peninsula. In conjunction with all of these reported efforts, South Korean is also pursuing production work either as off-sets to existing aerospace technology contracts (for example, McDonnell Douglas is offsetting production of some Delta parts to South Korean firms as part of the Koreasat launch contracts), or for production of consumer space items (among other products, South Korea exports satellite receiver television setups to Japan, and Samsung has announced teaming for production of OSC's Orbcomm user terminals.). This looks like a very aggressive push into space technologies. Considering that East Asia is currently the fastest growing sector for commercial space services (primarily for telecommunications), a South Korean push into space technologies may change the composition of commercial space market there over the next decade.] 13- SPACE TECHNOLOGY INDEXES THROUGH MARCH As announced in the last CSN/STI, each issue will give the results of stock indexes and portfolios regarding space stocks and investments. The table below summarizes results to the end of March. The Space Technology Index did quite a bit better than the market as a whole, as represented by the S&P 500 index. Since 90+% of the values included in the index are US firms, this represents a general increase in the market value of space-related firms. The increase in the first quarter is more than in all of 1992 -- which is a very promising sign, although future months may reverse this trend. The Commercial Space Technology Index has also done quite well, but the Pure Play portfolio -- consisting of stocks of firms which are pure plays in space technologies -- has also surpassed its results in all of 1993. We'll keep an eye on these .... INDEX RESULTS THROUGH MARCH Beginning Beginning 1 Jan 93 to 1992 1993 31 Mar 1993 ------- -------- -------- S&P 500 416 436 (+4.7%) 452 (+3.7%) Space Tech Index 267 304 (+13.6%) 373 (+22.7%) Comm'l Space Tech Index 167 194 (+16.3%) 222 (+14.2%) Space Tech Pure Plays 147 169 (+15.4%) 197 (+16.2%) FINAL NOTES - What? This column's already full? And I still have bunches of commercial space developments to report on. As I said at the start of this, column there's been a lot of interesting happenings - but I'll have to put them into the next issue. Looking ahead, I've got several articles in the works on new happenings with Iridium and the LEO communications satellite market, more news on international launchers appearing (and disappearing) on the market, new international commercial space ventures, and other interesting developments. And as always, I hope you folks find this stuff useful and interesting -- Any and all comments are welcome. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Wales Larrison Space Technology Investor "Felicitas multos habet amicos" P.O. Box 2452 Seal Beach, CA 90740-1452 ------------------------------ Date: 23 Apr 93 21:17:38 From: Wales.Larrison@ofa123.fidonet.org Subject: Space Advertising (2 of 2) Newsgroups: sci.space Two developments have brought these type of activities back to the forefront in 1993. First, in February, the Russians deployed a 20-m reflector from a Progress vehicle after it had departed from the Mir Space Station. While this "Banner" reflector was blank, NPO Energia was very active in reporting that future Banner reflectors will be available to advertisers, who could use a space- based video of their logo or ad printed on the Banner in a TV commercial, as filmed from the Mir. The second development, has been that Space Marketing Inc, the same company responsible for merchandising space on the Conestoga booster and COMET spacecraft, is now pushing the "Environmental Billboard". As laid out by SMI Chief Engineer Dr Ron Humble of the University of Colorado Space Laboratory and Preston Carter of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, the "Environmental Billboard" is a large inflatable outer support structure of up to 804x1609 meters. Advertising is carried by a mylar reflective area, deployed by the inflatable 'frame'. To help sell the concept, the spacecraft responsible for maintaining the billboard on orbit will carry "ozone reading sensors" to "continuously monitor the condition of the Earth's delicate protective ozone layer," according to Mike Lawson, head of SMI. Furthermore, the inflatable billboard has reached its minimum exposure of 30 days it will be released to re-enter the Earth's atmosphere. According to IMI, "as the biodegradable material burns, it will release ozone-building components that will literally replenish the ozone layer." The remaining spacecraft will monitor the atmosphere for another year before it, too, re-enters and burns up and "adds to the ozone supply." This would not be a cheap advertisement, costing at least several millions of dollars (exact costs were not available). But SMI estimates that market exposure would be 3-5X that of the people who watched the SuperBowl, where a 30-second advertising 'unit' cost $600,000. Since SMI is located in Atlanta, Georgia, it is being promoted as being available in time for the opening of the 1996 Summer Olympics in Atlanta. But back to Brian's questions: >And does anyone have any more details other than what was in the WN >news blip? How serious is this project? Is this just in the "wild >idea" stage or does it have real funding? See above. As for serious -- if they can get $15-20 M or so (my estimate of $5-10 for development costs and a flight unit, plus $10-15 M for a launch), then it's probably real. They are claiming to tailor the orbit to overfly specific locations at specific times for optimum advertising impact so they probably can't piggy back upon someone else's planned launch and will have to buy a dedicated launch. That's a $10-15 M cost they need to raise, right there. And there will probably be some legal challenges to this as well. Note there is one potential legal challenge to SMI on the use of launch vehicle advertising already. While I don't think the legal challenges would win out (and yes, I am an amateur astronomer, and no, I don't really like the idea of this additional light pollution, but I know of no prohibition of it...), the legal challenges and court fights would probably remove any positive aspects of the advertising. I can imagine several ways to make the advertisers look like louts for doing this -- which would change positive market exposure to negative market exposure, and negate the space advertising advantage. (Would you spend $15 M to look like an idiot?) (And light pollution might not be too bad -- if it's in a low enough orbit, and it relies upon reflected light only, it would only be visible for a short time just after local dusk and before dawn. For maximum market exposure, you want to have it visible just after dusk --minimizing impact on astronomy, since that's the time of worse seeing due to day/night thermal turbulence. It might still be a problem, but perhaps there are ways to mitigate this...) As for having real funding -- none that I can identify. There were about 60 expressions of interest made on the Conestoga advertising opportunity, but that included curious folks and was for only a $500,000 commitment. I haven't heard of any serious funding for this, but I'm sure they are shopping the venture around looking for some money in order to flesh out the concept some more. But I am confident there are no firm or paying customers at this time. And if anybody wants to cross-post this to sci.astro, please be my guest. I don't have posting privileges to that area (or at least I don't THINK I do...). ------------------------------------------------------------------- Wales Larrison Space Technology Investor --- Maximus 2.01wb ------------------------------ End of Space Digest Volume 16 : Issue 489 ------------------------------