Return-path: X-Andrew-Authenticated-as: 7997;andrew.cmu.edu;Ted Anderson Received: from hogtown.andrew.cmu.edu via trymail for +dist+/afs/andrew.cmu.edu/usr11/tm2b/space/space.dl@andrew.cmu.edu (->+dist+/afs/andrew.cmu.edu/usr11/tm2b/space/space.dl) (->ota+space.digests) ID ; Sun, 30 Jun 91 03:06:25 -0400 (EDT) Message-ID: Precedence: junk Reply-To: space+@Andrew.CMU.EDU From: space-request+@Andrew.CMU.EDU To: space+@Andrew.CMU.EDU Date: Sun, 30 Jun 91 03:06:20 -0400 (EDT) Subject: SPACE Digest V13 #750 SPACE Digest Volume 13 : Issue 750 Today's Topics: NASA Prediction Bulletins, Part 1 LOW LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH - VALID FOR 17 JUNE Administrivia: Submissions to the SPACE Digest/sci.space should be mailed to space+@andrew.cmu.edu. Other mail, esp. [un]subscription requests, should be sent to space-request+@andrew.cmu.edu, or, if urgent, to tm2b+@andrew.cmu.edu ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: 15 Jun 91 12:05:13 GMT From: udecc.engr.udayton.edu!blackbird.afit.af.mil!tkelso@tut.cis.ohio-state.edu (TS Kelso) Subject: NASA Prediction Bulletins, Part 1 The most current orbital elements from the NASA Prediction Bulletins are carried on the Celestial BBS, (513) 427-0674, and are updated several times weekly. Documentation and tracking software are also available on this system. As a service to the satellite user community, the most current of these elements are uploaded weekly to sci.space. This week's elements are provided below. The Celestial BBS may be accessed 24 hours/day at 300, 1200, or 2400 baud using 8 data bits, 1 stop bit, no parity. - Current NASA Prediction Bulletins #855a - Alouette 1 1 00424U 62B-A 1 91156.37619448 .00000199 00000-0 22777-3 0 4288 2 00424 80.4640 297.8292 0024133 84.6048 275.7849 13.67535459430968 ATS 3 1 03029U 67111 A 91156.63842366 -.00000076 00000-0 99999-4 0 5810 2 03029 13.6310 18.1685 0015391 225.1771 134.6876 1.00273010 86332 Cosmos 398 1 04966U 71 16 A 91162.89081021 .00105350 20209-4 48844-3 0 6627 2 04966 51.4977 13.7724 2007040 137.6047 239.8741 11.63985640632395 Starlette 1 07646U 75010 A 91155.47744118 .00000019 00000-0 62244-4 0 2763 2 07646 49.8266 208.4021 0205817 274.4894 83.2511 13.82158783824503 LAGEOS 1 08820U 76039 A 91153.40353478 .00000004 00000-0 99999-4 0 2824 2 08820 109.8296 115.1017 0044241 164.0015 196.1732 6.38664237 96305 GOES 2 1 10061U 77048 A 91154.63080465 -.00000252 00000-0 99999-4 0 6262 2 10061 8.9593 57.1392 0011610 256.1127 106.6935 1.00116774 52536 IUE 1 10637U 78012 A 91156.74256864 -.00000179 00000-0 79862-4 0 2840 2 10637 32.8579 113.1903 1398321 2.9182 357.6647 1.00270881 10017 GPS-0001 1 10684U 78020 A 91157.95085371 .00000003 00000-0 99999-4 0 6839 2 10684 63.9016 78.5875 0125954 198.5824 160.9584 2.00553266 82966 GPS-0002 1 10893U 78 47 A 91157.95822834 -.00000021 00000-0 99999-4 0 4023 2 10893 64.2157 319.4145 0173547 24.0289 336.7752 2.00534137 95784 GOES 3 1 10953U 78062 A 91158.94610156 .00000104 00000-0 99999-4 0 1342 2 10953 7.7936 62.0500 0004629 65.4674 294.4099 1.00255660 640 SeaSat 1 1 10967U 78064 A 91159.47557432 .00001156 00000-0 43447-3 0 5534 2 10967 108.0207 336.0026 0002472 242.0202 118.0715 14.36672241677605 GPS-0003 1 11054U 78093 A 91160.68096973 -.00000020 00000-0 99999-4 0 4451 2 11054 63.6580 315.4475 0065926 118.7587 241.8959 2.00572020 92855 Nimbus 7 1 11080U 78098 A 91154.20857708 .00000100 00000-0 11930-3 0 7805 2 11080 99.1735 55.7563 0008279 225.2221 134.8258 13.83556677636578 GPS-0004 1 11141U 78112 A 91160.81577990 .00000003 00000-0 99999-4 0 1949 2 11141 63.8936 78.3449 0062002 311.1867 48.2825 2.00543691 91556 GPS-0005 1 11690U 80 11 A 91153.97018418 .00000004 00000-0 99999-4 0 1865 2 11690 64.3748 80.8809 0125230 203.3048 156.1289 2.00551763 97273 GPS-0006 1 11783U 80 32 A 91160.07729369 -.00000020 00000-0 99999-4 0 4888 2 11783 63.3227 315.0085 0190932 28.2767 332.7406 2.03456413 81498 GOES 5 1 12472U 81049 A 91161.87192814 .00000137 00000-0 99999-4 0 1415 2 12472 4.3592 71.3072 0003374 344.3228 15.3468 1.00278877 35829 Cosmos 1383 1 13301U 82 66 A 91162.11003515 .00000120 00000-0 12866-3 0 7352 2 13301 82.9309 37.7165 0025974 254.0298 105.7998 13.67924642446745 LandSat 4 1 13367U 82 72 A 91162.67445150 .00000154 00000-0 39090-4 0 8286 2 13367 98.1150 222.1031 0004719 91.2719 268.9020 14.57161126473653 IRAS 1 13777U 83 4 A 91162.05209742 .00000295 00000-0 22754-3 0 9896 2 13777 99.0139 358.0317 0013614 115.0749 245.1840 13.98959934 97119 Cosmos 1447 1 13916U 83 21 A 91162.18032183 .00000114 00000-0 10997-3 0 8319 2 13916 82.9448 106.6665 0036180 219.4980 140.3539 13.74150106411973 TDRS 1 1 13969U 83 26 B 91160.93112862 .00000130 00000-0 99999-4 0 4006 2 13969 5.3392 62.6346 0003714 17.5462 342.4889 1.00283288 2933 GOES 6 1 14050U 83 41 A 91160.86609817 .00000119 00000-0 99999-4 0 4892 2 14050 3.1204 73.8677 0002359 299.3705 60.1814 1.00266506 1720 OSCAR 10 1 14129U 83 58 B 91160.44420849 -.00000142 00000-0 99998-4 0 6761 2 14129 25.7773 141.3946 6029512 248.9975 39.0238 2.05885773 32080 GPS-0008 1 14189U 83 72 A 91160.67353643 .00000002 00000-0 99999-4 0 9796 2 14189 63.5492 76.6593 0142818 225.8167 133.0047 2.00567966 57938 LandSat 5 1 14780U 84 21 A 91162.71191734 .00000427 00000-0 99999-4 0 6839 2 14780 98.2386 223.2729 0002823 89.9119 270.2415 14.57108762387074 UoSat 2 1 14781U 84 21 B 91162.56401050 .00002058 00000-0 37511-3 0 273 2 14781 97.8987 207.6093 0011810 181.4371 178.6940 14.66998546388624 GPS-0009 1 15039U 84 59 A 91162.34357893 .00000001 00000-0 99999-4 0 2460 2 15039 63.2870 75.7150 0028621 225.6519 134.1441 2.00564708 51242 Cosmos 1574 1 15055U 84 62 A 91160.98612406 .00000127 00000-0 12444-3 0 909 2 15055 82.9586 158.5429 0029319 48.2523 312.1129 13.73460476349183 GPS-0010 1 15271U 84 97 A 91160.79286957 -.00000020 00000-0 99999-4 0 852 2 15271 63.0241 314.2812 0113064 333.3112 26.0958 2.00565669 48322 Cosmos 1602 1 15331U 84105 A 91162.62168964 .00003373 00000-0 43422-3 0 6106 2 15331 82.5365 27.2446 0019992 236.4572 123.4802 14.80707840361221 NOAA 9 1 15427U 84123 A 91162.26043968 .00000562 00000-0 32209-3 0 7871 2 15427 99.1684 175.6340 0016263 82.0423 278.2588 14.13026405334681 GPS-0011 1 16129U 85 93 A 91161.01068528 .00000003 00000-0 99999-4 0 7846 2 16129 64.0721 77.0244 0123660 146.7436 214.0429 2.00565006 41533 Mir 1 16609U 86 17 A 91162.85963363 .00081526 00000-0 89716-3 0 5246 2 16609 51.6072 314.0990 0020554 240.3640 119.5458 15.62174865304337 SPOT 1 1 16613U 86 19 A 91162.70399154 .00000623 00000-0 31008-3 0 3583 2 16613 98.6969 236.7459 0000441 146.9575 213.1625 14.20049048114950 Cosmos 1766 1 16881U 86 55 A 91162.27910781 .00003357 00000-0 44013-3 0 4530 2 16881 82.5161 86.2145 0018829 256.5303 103.3819 14.79957373262210 EGP 1 16908U 86 61 A 91154.21713719 -.00000038 00000-0 66109-5 0 3742 2 16908 50.0156 256.8390 0011272 8.9594 351.1440 12.44395285218567 NOAA 10 1 16969U 86 73 A 91160.39734593 .00000629 00000-0 28934-3 0 6358 2 16969 98.5668 184.8014 0012809 315.4912 44.5242 14.24154837245445 MOS-1 1 17527U 87 18 A 91162.22232228 -.00001494 00000-0 -10996-2 0 8668 2 17527 99.0792 234.4316 0001631 160.5649 199.5554 13.94879006219316 GOES 7 1 17561U 87 22 A 91159.57454413 -.00000079 00000-0 99999-4 0 8464 2 17561 0.0727 67.2480 0005339 335.5081 317.2616 1.00297574 449 Kvant-1 1 17845U 87 30 A 91162.79531733 .00047454 00000-0 52788-3 0 6219 2 17845 51.6042 314.4267 0019820 239.5294 118.4256 15.62144609239050 DMSP B5D2-3 1 18123U 87 53 A 91162.87136833 .00000678 00000-0 37217-3 0 160 2 18123 98.8119 353.6735 0015679 80.2264 280.0687 14.14616309205244 RS-10/11 1 18129U 87 54 A 91162.80909847 .00000132 00000-0 13304-3 0 6750 2 18129 82.9272 62.8349 0011018 195.0527 165.0311 13.72192137198859 Meteor 2-16 1 18312U 87 68 A 91160.97211098 .00000169 00000-0 14339-3 0 6938 2 18312 82.5573 6.7039 0012382 336.8774 23.1830 13.83801109192469 Meteor 2-17 1 18820U 88 5 A 91160.80703179 .00000305 00000-0 26174-3 0 5393 2 18820 82.5431 66.1598 0018323 41.9923 318.2638 13.84494564169661 DMSP B5D2-4 1 18822U 88 6 A 91162.90385037 .00000880 00000-0 41468-3 0 9168 2 18822 98.5951 38.6196 0005855 318.1965 41.8766 14.22049857173936 Glonass 34 1 19163U 88 43 A 91162.12942128 .00000020 00000-0 99999-4 0 3345 2 19163 64.9176 147.1909 0007143 204.0324 155.9370 2.13102633 23798 Glonass 36 1 19165U 88 43 C 91161.71693647 .00000020 00000-0 99999-4 0 3340 2 19165 64.9009 147.1994 0005377 317.8261 42.1380 2.13102797 23787 AO-13 1 19216U 88 51 B 91157.06388580 .00000215 00000-0 86587-3 0 2743 2 19216 56.7701 90.7246 7185846 256.1839 21.0619 2.09696177 22828 OKEAN 1 1 19274U 88 56 A 91161.02507022 .00002194 00000-0 29234-3 0 1571 2 19274 82.5219 186.1786 0023099 37.1338 323.1483 14.79081441157777 Meteor 3-2 1 19336U 88 64 A 91161.03496971 .00000056 00000-0 12496-3 0 7900 2 19336 82.5430 24.2542 0017789 135.2556 225.0025 13.16925807138059 Glonass 39 1 19503U 88 85 C 91162.67553405 -.00000018 00000-0 99999-4 0 2342 2 19503 65.4787 26.4438 0005153 176.8030 183.2646 2.13103495 21295 NOAA 11 1 19531U 88 89 A 91163.17690915 .00000647 00000-0 37315-3 0 5401 2 19531 99.0296 117.9185 0012124 355.6984 4.4080 14.12173860139763 TDRS 2 1 19548U 88 91 B 91155.78164049 .00000113 00000-0 99999-4 0 2765 2 19548 0.5979 83.3819 0002402 346.1142 290.4014 1.00272653 8453 Glonass 40 1 19749U 89 1 A 91162.71691896 .00000020 00000-0 99999-4 0 356 2 19749 64.8598 146.8289 0007994 274.9796 84.9237 2.13101827 18820 Glonass 41 1 19750U 89 1 B 91162.30561212 .00000019 00000-0 99999-4 0 595 2 19750 64.8808 146.8690 0007964 258.0496 101.8510 2.13102278 18812 GPS BII-01 1 19802U 89 13 A 91154.90019117 .00000017 00000-0 99999-4 0 2719 2 19802 55.0346 183.5433 0048330 167.9358 192.2382 2.00566052 16807 Akebono 1 19822U 89 16 A 91162.73079400 .00048465 00000-0 28880-2 0 508 2 19822 75.1214 59.6302 4069040 348.3579 4.5734 7.31580450 25712 Meteor 2-18 1 19851U 89 18 A 91161.08896308 .00000157 00000-0 13051-3 0 4913 2 19851 82.5186 303.2724 0015673 78.9309 281.3623 13.84138871115078 MOP-1 1 19876U 89 20 B 91152.31069772 .00000012 00000-0 99999-4 0 2213 2 19876 0.1810 334.5556 0001818 75.5431 310.0340 1.00261645 4164 TDRS 3 1 19883U 89 21 B 91154.63218050 -.00000237 00000-0 99999-4 0 2786 2 19883 1.0198 78.6658 0002304 3.6357 355.9343 1.00264606 78410 GPS BII-02 1 20061U 89 44 A 91103.87321174 -.00000034 00000-0 99999-4 0 2711 2 20061 54.8877 3.6255 0090918 184.4845 175.4971 2.00566450 13525 Nadezhda 1 1 20103U 89 50 A 91161.03747885 .00000127 00000-0 12397-3 0 3896 2 20103 82.9610 21.2104 0038554 120.0981 240.4013 13.73694198 96842 GPS BII-03 1 20185U 89064 A 91104.71060838 -.00000123 00000-0 00000 0 0 01797 2 20185 054.9166 186.3301 0020176 172.0341 188.0316 02.00562496012111 GPS BII-04 1 20302U 89085 A 91106.73331065 -.00000084 00000-0 00000 0 0 01794 2 20302 054.3986 304.6789 0029381 333.0204 026.8604 02.00556152010956 Meteor 3-3 1 20305U 89 86 A 91160.95609175 .00000043 00000-0 99999-4 0 3877 2 20305 82.5529 325.6582 0016248 152.8015 207.3962 13.15954711 78008 -- Dr TS Kelso Assistant Professor of Space Operations tkelso@blackbird.afit.af.mil Air Force Institute of Technology ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 15 Jun 91 20:53:16 MDT From: oler <@BITNET.CC.CMU.EDU:oler@HG.ULeth.CA> (CARY OLER) Subject: LOW LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH - VALID FOR 17 JUNE X-St-Vmsmail-To: st%"space+@andrew.cmu.edu" /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ LOW LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH ISSUED: 02:45 UT, 16 JUNE VALID: 17 JUNE /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ ATTENTION: The major class X12/3B flare of 15 June is expected to produce a minor to major geomagnetic storm. An accompanying minor to major auroral storm is also anticipated for 17 June. The auroral activity may be sufficient to be observed over the central to southerly middle latitudes. There will be a slim chance for lower latitude auroral activity. To aid in interpreting the probabilities, the following probability chart has been made available. VISIBLE AURORAL ACTIVITY PREDICTION FOR NORTH AMERICA JUNE 16 - JUNE 19 NOTE: The days given below are UT days. Day 1 corresponds to the UT day of 16 June. For North America, Day 1 begins at 18:00 MDT, 19:00 CDT, etc, on 15 June. Day 2 begins at 18:00 MDT, 19:00 CDT, etc, on 16 June. Take this into consideration when interpreting the chart below. The chart represents the expected probabilities for observing visible auroral activity (during the night hours), under a dark sky with good atmospheric conditions. Use the appropriate section of the chart corresponding to your latitude. The latitude boundaries are defined (approximately) as follows: NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE High latitudes >= 55 deg. N. | High latitudes >= 55 deg. S. Middle latitudes >= 40 < 55 deg. N. | Middle latitudes >= 35 < 55 deg. S. Low latitudes < 40 deg. N. | Low latitudes < 35 deg. S. These are not precise boundaries because auroral activity is more closely associated with geomagnetic latitude than with geographic latitude. Nevertheless, the geographical latitude boundaries given above are good approximations and are used in the chart below. ------------------------------------------------------ | Latitude |Intensity| Day1 | Day2 | Day3 | Day4 | |----------------|---------|------|------|------|------| | |High | 00% | 75% | 30% | 05% | | High Latitude |Moderate | 15% | 20% | 40% | 30% | | |Low | 45% | 05% | 30% | 55% | | |Not Visbl| 40% | 00% | 00% | 10% | |----------------|---------|------|------|------|------| | |High | 00% | 70% | 15% | 00% | |Northerly Middle|Moderate | 05% | 20% | 40% | 20% | | |Low | 40% | 10% | 40% | 40% | | |Not Visbl| 55% | 00% | 05% | 40% | |----------------|---------|------|------|------|------| | |High | 00% | 20% | 05% | 00% | | Central Middle |Moderate | 00% | 30% | 20% | 00% | | |Low | 10% | 40% | 40% | 30% | | |Not Visbl| 90% | 10% | 35% | 70% | |----------------|---------|------|------|------|------| | |High | 00% | 05% | 00% | 00% | |Southerly Middle|Moderate | 00% | 15% | 05% | 00% | | |Low | 00% | 30% | 20% | 05% | | |Not Visbl| 100% | 50% | 75% | 95% | |----------------|---------|------|------|------|------| | |High | 00% | 00% | 00% | 00% | | Northerly Low |Moderate | 00% | 05% | 05% | 00% | | |Low | 00% | 35% | 10% | 00% | | |Not Visbl| 100% | 60% | 85% | 100% | |----------------|---------|------|------|------|------| | |High | 00% | 00% | 00% | 00% | | Central Low |Moderate | 00% | 00% | 00% | 00% | | |Low | 00% | 30% | 10% | 00% | | |Not Visbl| 100% | 70% | 90% | 100% | |----------------|---------|------|------|------|------| | |High | 00% | 00% | 00% | 00% | | Southerly Low |Moderate | 00% | 00% | 00% | 00% | | |Low | 00% | 10% | 05% | 00% | | |Not Visbl| 100% | 90% | 95% | 100% | ------------------------------------------------------ For example, the probability for observing auroral activity over the southerly middle latitudes (near the 40N latitude boundary) on Day 2 (or 17 June, UT time) is as follows. There is a 05% chance for observing high-intensity auroral activity over these regions on 17 June, a 15% probability for observing moderate levels of activity, a 30% probability for observing low levels of activity, and a 50% chance for being unable to observe any auroral activity at all. Taken together, there is a 45% probability for observing low to moderate auroral activity, a 20% probability for observing moderate to high auroral activity, and an 80% probability that activity will either be not visible or of low intensity on 17 June. This chart is designed to give the observer all of the information needed to make judgemental decisions. Using this chart, the observer will know exactly what the forecasters believe may happen and whether there is a high or low confidence in predicting specific levels of activity for specific regions. The UT day of 17 June (or, for North American observers, the local evening hours of 16 June) is expected to provide the highest probabilities for observing auroral activity over the lower latitudes. Lunar phase will not interfere with attempts to view auroral activity. This is expected to be the last opportunity to view flare-induced auroral activity before Region 6659 departs around the west limb. Photographic observers in the middle to low latitudes where auroral activity is difficult to spot may want to take long-exposure photographs of the northern to northeastern horizon even if auroral activity does not become optically visible with the unaided eye. Often, long-exposure photographs taken without optical confirmation yield positive results. For any of you who obtain optical or photographic confirmation of auroral activity (particularly over the lower latitudes), please send a note to: oler@hg.uleth.ca, or to: oler@alpha.uleth.ca, or write to: Solar Terrestrial Dispatch, Box 357, Stirling, Alberta, Canada, T0K 2E0. We are interested in obtaining photographic copies of auroral activity viewed over areas where it is normally not seen. We thank all those who take the time to send in confirmation (or non-confirmation) reports. ** End of Watch ** ------------------------------ End of SPACE Digest V13 #750 *******************