Return-path: X-Andrew-Authenticated-as: 7997;andrew.cmu.edu;Ted Anderson Received: from beak.andrew.cmu.edu via trymail for +dist+/afs/andrew.cmu.edu/usr11/tm2b/space/space.dl@andrew.cmu.edu (->+dist+/afs/andrew.cmu.edu/usr11/tm2b/space/space.dl) (->ota+space.digests) ID ; Sun, 16 Dec 1990 01:33:58 -0500 (EST) Message-ID: <0bOlIm-00VcJ43bU53@andrew.cmu.edu> Precedence: junk Reply-To: space+@Andrew.CMU.EDU From: space-request+@Andrew.CMU.EDU To: space+@Andrew.CMU.EDU Date: Sun, 16 Dec 1990 01:33:23 -0500 (EST) Subject: SPACE Digest V12 #665 SPACE Digest Volume 12 : Issue 665 Today's Topics: Truly press briefing on Augustine Report (Forwarded) Re: Future Headlines Today MAJOR FLARE ALERT & MAGNETIC STORM WARNING Administrivia: Submissions to the SPACE Digest/sci.space should be mailed to space+@andrew.cmu.edu. Other mail, esp. [un]subscription notices, should be sent to space-request+@andrew.cmu.edu, or, if urgent, to tm2b+@andrew.cmu.edu ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: 10 Dec 90 20:10:41 GMT From: trident.arc.nasa.gov!yee@ames.arc.nasa.gov (Peter E. Yee) Subject: Truly press briefing on Augustine Report (Forwarded) David W. Garrett Headquarters, Washington, D.C. December 10, 1990 (Phone: 202/453-8400) N90-99 NOTE TO EDITORS: TRULY PRESS BRIEFING ON AUGUSTINE REPORT NASA Administrator Richard H. Truly will conduct a press briefing today to discuss the final report of the Advisory Committee on the Future of the U.S. Space Program (Augustine Committee). The briefing will be held at 4:00 p.m. EST in the NASA Headquarters 6th floor auditorium, 400 Maryland Avenue SW, Washington, D.C., and will be carried live on NASA Select television, Satcom F2R, transponder 13, C-Band, at 72 degrees West Longitude, frequency 3960.0 MHz, audio 6.8 MHz, with two-way question and answer capability. ------------------------------ Date: 10 Dec 90 20:37:03 GMT From: hsdndev!spdcc!ima!dirtydog!suitti@CS.YALE.EDU (Stephen Uitti) Subject: Re: Future Headlines Today In article <1990Dec9.193204.8637@informix.com> billd@infmx.informix.com (William Daul) writes: >I just thought of a ficticious new article for the Enquirer: (fictitious) > U.S. Can't Put Sh_t Into Space > by Melvin Frustrated > After a number of major failures including Challenger, the Hubble > Space Telescope, and Astro-1, NASA has proven again that they > can't deliver "quality" with their current budget. Now they can't > even take care of the fecal material. Due to problems with the > waste disposal system they may have to come back early. > > NASA needs either a massive infusion of money...perhaps some > training in "Total Quality Management" might help. The way things > seem to be going I think the Baldrige Award is out of the question. > > I want a US "quality" Space Program, but something is keeping us from > it, perhaps NASA's problems are just a very visible example of the > problems facing the entire US workforce. 1) Hubble does not appear to be a failure. It is having problems and is not achieving all of its goals. However, it does appear to be a very capable observatory - far from being dead in the water. It is also likely that it will be fixed for mostly fixed in 1993. 2) Astro-1 does not appear to be a failure. It has had problems but seems to be achieving most of its desired goals. In some ways, it is outperforming its desired goals. It has had operational problems, but is not dead in the water. 3) Challenger was not a failure. It was a tragedy to be sure. The shuttle did make successful flights. The other shuttles are making successful flights. I'm amazed that it was built before a smaller operation craft was built. I'm amazed that something so large was built and is flown. It isn't has cheap as advertised, but it is as capable - if not more so. "Quality" is subjective. The Baldrige Award is not designed for push-the-envelope experimental work. It is designed for high volume production or services. NASA may have enough of a paper trail to satisfy the Baldrige Award, however, and it might be surprising how it would rate. Customer definition may be difficult. In engineering (as opposed to production), there is really only one alternative to failure - do not try. For NASA, this is an unacceptable alternative. Success can not be achieved without failure, except in trivial cases, and even then not without tons of work. NASA needs stable funding more than anything else. I'd vote for giving NASA a fixed, say, $5x10^9, annual budget, and specific science and capability goals with no deadlines. Congress would not be allowed to alter funding or delete goals. Congress could require some sort of accountability. Anyway, it appears that you don't want to hear about the problems - only the successes. I'd call that blindness. Still, it could be arranged. It is a free country, and a news service could be set up that only printed good news. I'd probably read it. Stephen. suitti@ima.isc.com "We Americans want peace, and it is now evident that we must be prepared to demand it. For other peoples have wanted peace, and the peace they received was the peace of death." - the Most Rev. Francis J. Spellman, Archbishop of New York. 22 September, 1940 ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 11 Dec 90 02:20:59 MST From: std_oler%HG.ULeth.CA@vma.cc.cmu.edu (Cary Oler) Subject: MAJOR FLARE ALERT & MAGNETIC STORM WARNING X-St-Vmsmail-To: ST%"space+@andrew.cmu.edu" -- MAJOR SOLAR FLARE ALERT -- DECEMBER 10, 1990 Potential Impact Forecast --> MAGNETIC STORM WARNING <-- Flare Event Summary -------- MAJOR ENERGETIC EVENT SUMMARY At 06:54 UT on 10 December, a major class M5.8/2B flare erupted from Region 6398 at a location of N15W47. This flare was accompanied by strong Type II and Type IV sweeps and weak discrete radio bursts. This flare is a major event and is expected to have a moderate to potentially strong impact with the earth. The estimated shockwave velocity is 1400 km/second, which is easily capable of producing a minor to major geomagnetic storm. The flare was a long-duration event, lasting 103 minutes (1 hour and 43 minutes). It began at 06:54 UT, and reached a peak intensity at 07:54 UT. The event ended at 08:37 UT. A SID/SWF event is strongly suspected of being associated with this flare, although this has not yet been confirmed. Region 6398 produced the majority of today's energetic events. Along with the today's major flare, it has produced several C-class flares and numerous subflares. This region is a relatively small (540 million square kilometers or 211 million square miles) group with only 15 spots encompassed in the region. It is has a beta-type magnetic configuration, but has a complex magnetic inversion line where the major flare originated. This region is still capable of producing several more M-class events, but is not expected to spawn any other major flares. No significant proton enhancements were observed throughout the period. This major flare was not a proton flare. Its involvment with strong Types II and IV sweeps, however, indicate that an interplanetary shock is on the way. More on potential impacts will be given below. Other notes: Old Region 6368 rotated onto the eastern limb today. It has been given a region number of 6412. So far, only two spots have been identified, but it is still too early to see any details. The region currently sports a minor HHX spot configuration, but its accumulated area so far (900 million square kilometers) suggests that this region is still at least moderately large. Early indications seem to suggest that it has decayed into a more stable configuration. More will be known when the rest of the region becomes visible over the next 24 hours. GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING Today's major class M5.8/2B flare is expected to have at least a moderate impact with the earth. An interplanetary shockwave is expected to reach the earth between 18:00 UT on 11 December and 11:00 UT on 12 December. Geomagnetic activity is expected to reach at least active levels over middle and low latitudes and minor storm levels over higher latitudes. There is, however, a moderate risk that middle latitudes may achieve minor to major storm levels while high latitudes experience mostly major storming. At the present time, the middle-ground is being chosen as most likely. That is, middle latitudes should experience predominantly active levels with some brief periods of minor storming. High latitudes should experience mostly minor storming with brief periods of major storming. More will be known once the impact from this flare begins to impinge on terrestrial activity. A geomagnetic storm warning has been issued, particularly for the high latitude regions, but encompassing the lower latitudes as well. The magnetic storming is expected to be enhanced somewhat by a favorably positioned coronal hole. The combined effects of the flare and the coronal hole may be sufficient to provide major storm conditions over middle and high latitudes. The Space Environment Services Center has issued a condition YELLOW alert status for potential PCA activity. The probability for major flares is hovering between 10% and 15% for both class X and proton flares. The probability for further class M-flare activity is steady at 70% for the next 72 hours. PLANETARY 10-DAY GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY OUTLOOK (09 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER) ________________________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY SEVERE | | | | | | | | | | | VERY HIGH! | | VERY SEVERE STORM | | | | | | | | | | | HIGH | | SEVERE STORM | | | | | | | | | | | MODERATE | | MAJOR STORM | | | | | | | | | | | MODERATE | | MINOR STORM | | | | **|** | | | | | | LOW | | VERY ACTIVE | | | | **|***|** | | | | | NONE - LOW | | ACTIVE | | | |***|***|***| * | | | * | NONE | | UNSETTLED | | | **|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE | | QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE | | VERY QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE | |-------------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|------------| | Geomagnetic Field |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| Anomaly | | Conditions | Given in 8-hour intervals | Intensity | |________________________________________________________________________| NOTES: Predicted geomagnetic activity is based heavily on recurrent phenomena. Transient energetic solar events cannot be predicted reliably over periods in excess of several days. Hence, there may be some deviations from the predictions due to the unpredictable transient solar component. HF RADIO SIGNAL PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (09 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER) High Latitude Paths ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | | VERY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | | GOOD | *| *|* | | | | | | | | | FAIR |** |** | **|* | | | *|***|***|* *| | POOR | | | | *| *|***|** | | | * | | VERY POOR | | | | * |** | | | | | | | EXTREMELY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | PROPAGATION |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| | QUALITY | Given in 8-Hour UT Intervals | -------------------------------------------------------- Middle Latitude Paths ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | | VERY GOOD |***|***|***| | | | | | | | | GOOD | | | |* | | *|* *|***|***|* *| | FAIR | | | | *| *|** | * | | | * | | POOR | | | | * |** | | | | | | | VERY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | | EXTREMELY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | PROPAGATION |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| | QUALITY | Given in 8-Hour UT Intervals | -------------------------------------------------------- Low Latitude Paths ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | | VERY GOOD |***|***|***| | | | | *| *| | | GOOD | | | |* | | *|***|** |** |***| | FAIR | | | | *|* *|** | | | | | | POOR | | | | * | * | | | | | | | VERY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | | EXTREMELY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | PROPAGATION |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| | QUALITY | Given in 8-Hour UT Intervals | -------------------------------------------------------- NOTES: High latitudes >= 55 degree's north latitude Middle latitudes >= 40 < 55 degree's north latitude Low latitudes < 40 degree's north latitude POTENTIAL VHF DX PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (09 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER) INCLUDES SID AND AURORAL BACKSCATTER ENHANCEMENT PREDICTIONS HIGH LATITUDES __________________________________________________ ___________________ | SIGNAL | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | | SID ENHANCEMENT | | QUALITY |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T| |__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| | VERY GOOD| | | | | | | | | | | 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |ABOVE NORM| | | | | | | | | | | 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | NORMAL|***|***|***| | *|* *|***|***|* *|* *| 40%| | | | | | | | | | | |BELOW NORM| | | |***|** | * | | | * | * | 60%| | | | | | | | | | | | VERY POOR| | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | BLACKOUT| | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | |==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===| |-------------------| | 100% | | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | | 80% | | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | 60% | | | |** | | | | | | | 60%| | |*|*| | | | | | | | 40% | | | *|***|***| | | |* *|* *| 40%| | |*|*|*| | | |*|*| | 20% | **| **| **|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%| | |*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | 0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |----------+---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| |CHANCE OF |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T| | VHF DX | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | |AURORAL BACKSCATTER| |__________|_______________________________________| |___________________| MIDDLE LATITUDES __________________________________________________ ___________________ | SIGNAL | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | | SID ENHANCEMENT | | QUALITY |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T| |__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| | VERY GOOD| | | | | | | | | | | 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |ABOVE NORM| * | * | * | | | | | | | | 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | NORMAL|* *|* *|* *| * | **|***|***|***|* *|* *| 40%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |BELOW NORM| | | |* *|* | | | | * | * | 60%|*|*|*|*|*|*| | | | | | VERY POOR| | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | BLACKOUT| | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | |==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===| |-------------------| | 100% | | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | | 80% | | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | 60% | | | | | | | | | | | 60%| | | | | | | | | | | | 40% | * | * | **|***| * | | | | | | 40%| | |*|*| | | | | | | | 20% | **| **| **|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%| | |*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | 0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |----------+---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| |CHANCE OF |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T| | VHF DX | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | |AURORAL BACKSCATTER| |__________|_______________________________________| |___________________| LOW LATITUDES __________________________________________________ ___________________ | SIGNAL | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | | SID ENHANCEMENT | | QUALITY |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T| |__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| | VERY GOOD| | | | | | | | | | | 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |ABOVE NORM| * | * | * | | | | | | | | 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | NORMAL|* *|* *|* *|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 40%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |BELOW NORM| | | | | | | | | | | 60%|*|*|*|*|*|*| | | | | | VERY POOR| | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | BLACKOUT| | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | |==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===| |-------------------| | 100% | | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | | 80% | | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | 60% | | | | | | | | | | | 60%| | | | | | | | | | | | 40% | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | 40%| | | | | | | | | | | | 20% | **| **| **|***|***| **| **| **| **| **| 20%| | |*|*| | | | | | | | 0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |----------+---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| |CHANCE OF |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T| | VHF DX | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | |AURORAL BACKSCATTER| |__________|_______________________________________| |___________________| NOTES: These VHF DX prediction charts are defined for the 50 MHz to 220 MHz bands. They are based primarily on phenomena which can affect VHF DX propagation globally. They should be used only as a guide to potential DX conditions on VHF bands. Latitudinal boundaries are the same as those for the HF predictions charts. For more information, request the document "Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" from: "std_oler@hg.uleth.ca". AURORAL ACTIVITY PREDICTIONS (09 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER) High Latitude Locations ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | | VERY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | | HIGH | | | **|** | | | | | | | | MODERATE | | | **|***|***| | | | | * | | LOW | | |***|***|***|***| * | * |***|***| | NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | AURORAL |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| | INTENSITY | Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight | -------------------------------------------------------- Middle Latitude Locations ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | | VERY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | | HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | | MODERATE | | | **|***| | | | | | * | | LOW | | | **|***|***| * | | * |***|***| | NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | AURORAL |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| | INTENSITY | Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight | -------------------------------------------------------- Low Latitude Locations ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | | VERY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | | HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | | MODERATE | | | | | | | | | | | | LOW | | | * | * | | | | | | | | NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | AURORAL |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| | INTENSITY | Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight | -------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: For more information regarding these charts, send a request for the document, "Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" to: std_oler@hg.uleth.ca. ** End of Report ** ------------------------------ End of SPACE Digest V12 #665 *******************