Return-path: X-Andrew-Authenticated-as: 7997;andrew.cmu.edu;Ted Anderson Received: from beak.andrew.cmu.edu via trymail for +dist+/afs/andrew.cmu.edu/usr11/tm2b/space/space.dl@andrew.cmu.edu (->+dist+/afs/andrew.cmu.edu/usr11/tm2b/space/space.dl) (->ota+space.digests) ID ; Mon, 22 Oct 1990 02:11:35 -0400 (EDT) Message-ID: <8b8cpsG00VcJAbik48@andrew.cmu.edu> Precedence: junk Reply-To: space+@Andrew.CMU.EDU From: space-request+@Andrew.CMU.EDU To: space+@Andrew.CMU.EDU Date: Mon, 22 Oct 1990 02:11:05 -0400 (EDT) Subject: SPACE Digest V12 #480 SPACE Digest Volume 12 : Issue 480 Today's Topics: Re: Launch cost per pound Administrivia: Submissions to the SPACE Digest/sci.space should be mailed to space+@andrew.cmu.edu. Other mail, esp. [un]subscription notices, should be sent to space-request+@andrew.cmu.edu, or, if urgent, to tm2b+@andrew.cmu.edu ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: 22 Oct 90 05:29:07 GMT From: brahms.udel.edu!harrys@louie.udel.edu (Henry Shipman) Subject: Re: Launch cost per pound I looked into the launch cost per pound question a couple of years ago when I was writing my book HUMANS IN SPACE: TWENTY FIRST CENTURY FRONTIERS. I did the arithmetic to get to a cost of $10,000 per pound for the shuttle as follows (see p. 331 of the book for some references) Consider the shuttle program as a whole, extending from 1970 thru 1995, a time period when we have some reasonable numbers. I was a bit optimistic and assumed 75 launches through 1995. I set the total cost as $15 billion 1988 dollars for development and $2 billion per year from 1980 through 1995 as operational costs based on current NASA budget numbers. This works out to a total of $45 billion for the first 25 years of the shuttle program. Modifying what I projected two years ago, I think that something like 50 launches prior to 1995 is a not too bad bet, leading to a cost per shuttle launch of slightly less than $1 billion. The same approach applied to the period prior to 1990 produces a total cost for the program of $25 billion 1988 dollars spread over 30-some launches, again with a cost of slightly less than $1 billion per launch, in good agreement with some other numbers posted here in the last week or so. Incidentally, the cost of launching payloads with expendable rockets in the 1970s, converted to current dollars, is roughly $5000 per pound. Of course there are other dimensions to the shuttle vs. unmanned rockets vs. the Soviet approach, but these are the numbers as I see them. One advantage the USSR has is that they have not insisted on pushing to the bleeding edge of technology; some of their launchers are reliable enough that they have launched them in snowstorms. I'm sure that my friends who work on the ASTRO program would be happier if their payload had been on such a launcher, though of course the way this payload is configured it needs an astronaut on board to point it at targets. Harry Shipman, University of Delaware harrys@brahms.udel.edu ------------------------------ End of SPACE Digest V12 #480 *******************