Return-path: X-Andrew-Authenticated-as: 7997;andrew.cmu.edu;Ted Anderson Received: from holmes.andrew.cmu.edu via trymail for +dist+/afs/andrew.cmu.edu/usr1/ota/space/space.dl@andrew.cmu.edu (->+dist+/afs/andrew.cmu.edu/usr1/ota/space/space.dl) (->ota+space.digests) ID ; Sun, 16 Apr 89 00:19:20 -0400 (EDT) Message-ID: Reply-To: space+@Andrew.CMU.EDU From: space-request+@Andrew.CMU.EDU To: space+@Andrew.CMU.EDU Date: Sun, 16 Apr 89 00:19:11 -0400 (EDT) Subject: SPACE Digest V9 #370 SPACE Digest Volume 9 : Issue 370 Today's Topics: More Economics (long) Re: More Economics (long) Mir Evacuation Re: Soviet shutdown of manned space program Re: Soviet shutdown of manned space program Re: USA vs. USSR ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Thu, 13 Apr 89 18:06:06 EDT From: John Roberts Formerly: National Bureau of Standards Sub-Organization: National Computer and Telecommunications Laboratory Disclaimer: Opinions expressed are those of the sender and do not reflect NIST policy or agreement. Subject: More Economics (long) >From: Dale.Amon@H.GP.CS.CMU.EDU >> Rockefeller of Standard Oil used to cut prices in local areas to kill >> off small competitors, then raise the prices again. The Japanese >Please verify. According to some authors this is a myth that is >unsupported by actual hard data from the period. Not having seen the >data either way, I will not claim which side is right, only point out >that it is not a proven statement. I haven't found anything mentioning this specific technique, though it was presented as fact in school. There are numerous references claiming that the ruthless anticompetitive techniques in general practiced by the Standard Oil Trust, and the resultant public outrage, were largely responsible for the passage of the Sherman Antitrust Act, which forced a reorganization of Standard Oil. The specific technique described would work best against a geographically localized startup company. (Legend has it that around the 1960's, gas stations near to one another would conduct "gas wars", cutting prices in an apparent effort to drive one another out of business.) The analogous technique in a global market is to cut prices everywhere, then subsist on reduced revenues or savings until the opponent gives up. This has been and is being practiced with many specific products. >> Americans are not anxious to lower American wages to the levels found >> elsewhere in the world, though the current trade policy leaves things >Too true. In a truly competitive world economy wages and prices world >wide would be driven to a median. The overly low would rise to meet the >overly high. So obviously, those who HAVE will use the government to >keep it at the expense of those who HAVE NOT. ... >Can't let those get on the first rung... If I am not anxious for my salary to be equated to that of a Chinese factory worker, it could be that I am not so much unwilling for the Chinese worker to get higher pay as to have my pay reduced to a few hundred dollars a year. As a consumer, I do not have any moral obligation to trade in such a manner that I am worse off than before I started. >> unless its prices are competitive. A very common practice in Japan is for >> a new business to be protected within the country by steep import >> tariffs, >And as long as the Japanese are willing to subsidize my purchase of >goods, fine. A subsidy for exported goods is not quite the same as a protected domestic market. The Japanese follow both of these practices, but under different circumstances. >Their loss improves my living standard by allowing me to >purchase more goods and services for the same dollars than I would have >otherwise. Thus I get my stereo AND some other goods as well. Everyone >gains except the people who supply the subsidy. This analysis completely ignores the factor of time, and certain properties of the money supply. Such a practice can be beneficial to the consumer in the short run, yet harmful in the long run. A dollar in the domestic money supply is reused several times a year, so the "effective" money supply is the actual number of dollars present times a certain multiplier. (I'm not certain, but I seem to recall the multiplier as being at least 3-5.) When you spend a dollar overseas which does not return because of a trade imbalance, the effective domestic money supply is reduced by a similarly disproportionate amount, reducing opportunities for domestic spending and investment, and hurting domestic business. Since domestic business is the source of most of the wealth in the US, the long-term effect is that American wealth and income decreases. In the meantime, the foreign suppliers can take the dollars they have retained from the trade imbalance, and use them to buy up American real estate and productive capacity. When they have a certain percentage of domestic productive capacity and the overall market, they can stop holding prices artificially low, and reap the profits to make up for their initial "sacrifice". Thus an export subsidy, properly handled, is a long-term investment. >And if it is indeed a >case where the particular business gets a foothold and kills off it's >competition, then I suggest that you buy stock in the winner and invest >your profits in space business. You CAN buy from the Tokyo Exchange, >although not a lot of individuals do so. Can a US citizen buy *voting* shares in a Japanese company (in Japan), and can a US company buy controlling interest? I had the impression that this is not permitted except under certain unusual circumstances. The US is comparatively very lenient in allowing Japanese and European companies to buy US productive capacity. >Yes, certain >PARTICULAR subsidies may be less that elsewhere, but when you toss in >the sneaky ones, our government ain't no better than the Japanese. If >not worse. I don't think they're even in the same class. Almost every aspect of the Japanese economy is highly distorted by government intervention and government-encouraged business collaboration, to an extent that astonishes residents of the US. >Speaking of monopolies. I'm gleefully visualizing the collapse of all >the public power utilities if this fusion technique pans out. "Natural" >monopolies are a figment of the imagination. This will happen in the short-to-medium term only if you can take advantage of economies of scale in manufacturing, and if there is no significant economy of scale in power production. I'm not convinced from what we've seen so far that this will be the case. A plausible scenario is that if everyone buys home fusion plants, they can have power for only twice the utility price for fusion power, while if only a few people buy fusion plants, the power will cost five to ten times the utility rate. This is drifting considerably from the initial topic, which was the economics of launch services, and the relation between new and established foreign launch services for US payloads, and startup private US launch services. To summarize: - The US government has decided for a variety of reasons that it would be a good idea to encourage the development of many new private launch services. - Not everyone in the government or in NASA agrees with this idea, so progress has been slower than might be wished, but some progress is being made. - Many of those on the net have also stated that they favor the formation of such services, and feel that in the long run they could be of benefit to both the US and the global space programs. - One of the chief factors that would tend to encourage the formation of new private launch services is the current shortage in supply of domestic launches. - The new private launch services are likely to be expensive by world standards in the short run, but as they gain in sales volume and experience, prices are expected to drop. The only new domestic launch prices I have heard so far are higher per pound than even shuttle launch costs. - Many of the new launch companies have limited resources and can not afford to operate a long time at a loss. - Given the experience and the vitality of some of the foreign launch services, few if any of the domestic startup launch services are likely to survive, unless there is some overt form of protection or promotion. - There are a number of options available for such protection or promotion, all of which have been heartily condemned, even though they have been used at some point by all of the successful foreign launch services. John Roberts roberts@cmr.icst.nbs.gov ------------------------------ Date: 14 Apr 89 03:23:50 GMT From: bobmon@iuvax.cs.indiana.edu (RAMontante) Subject: Re: More Economics (long) roberts@CMR.ICST.NBS.GOV (John Roberts) <8904132206.AA10304@cmr.icst.nbs.gov> : - - [ ... ] . (Legend has it that around the -1960's, gas stations near to one another would conduct "gas wars", cutting -prices in an apparent effort to drive one another out of business.) Oh my... I remember gas wars in Toledo in the late 60's. A couple of stations in particular went at it repeatedly -- every so often the prices would drop from around 37 cents/gal to 17 cents or thereabouts, stay for a couple of weeks, then go back up. (I might be off a bit on the exact prices. I think it got down to a dime/gal once, though.) Occasionally one of them would change management, but it was a choice corner, and somebody always bought in. It was easy to recognize a gas war; stations frequently put sandwich boards out with suggestive messages like "GAS WAR! LOWEST PRICE!" Not exactly a big secret. ------------------------------ Date: 13 Apr 89 17:09:27 GMT From: aero!venera.isi.edu!rogers@elroy.jpl.nasa.gov (Craig Milo Rogers) Subject: Mir Evacuation from The Los Angeles Times, Thu 13 Apr 89, part I page 2: The Soviet space station Mir will stay in mothballs for three months because of delays in preparing equipment that cosmonauts need to perform experiments aboard the spacecraft, Soviet news reports said. ... "The facility will be left unmanned ... due to delays with the preparation of two research modules" that will be attached to the main craft, Deputy Flight Director Viktor Blagov told the Tass news agency. This was the first explanation of why the project was being suspended. ------------------------------ Date: 13 Apr 89 17:44:00 GMT From: ccoprmd@pyr.gatech.edu (Matthew T. DeLuca) Subject: Re: Soviet shutdown of manned space program In article , K_MACART@UNHH.BITNET writes: > > I just heard that the CCCP is not putting up manned missions for a while > (anyone heard how long?). > My theory is that they are conserving resources for upcoming grandiose missions... [possible Soviet plans here] Could be, but I think it far more likely that Gorbachev has realized that with the straits the economy is in, the Soviet Union will fall further and further behind the West in economic power and technological capability unless the government devotes more resources to projects that benefit the consumer. The military and space programs (these two are linked fairly closely, as in any space program) take up a very large percentage of the GNP, something in the range of 20 to 30 percent. The U.S. total is something like 6 percent. No country can devote that large of a fraction of it's productivity to something that is an effective drain. This is why we *are* seeing cutbacks in the Soviet military, such as the withdrawl from Afghanistan and the (proposed) 500,000 man cutback in Eastern Europe. For these same reason, I don't think we'll see a Soviet Mars mission for a *long* time. Any trip to Mars is going to be pretty expensive, and to maintain a presence will be several times more so. I don't think the Soviets are going to repeat the mistake we made with Apollo, that is, if they go somewhere, they're going to go to stay. A more likely scenario, in my opinion, is a Soviet lunar mission, to gain the experience with manned planetary exploration needed for Mars, at a much closer locale. Besides, it would cost less. Matthew DeLuca : Georgia Institute of Technology : Certainty is the lot of those who ARPA: ccoprmd@pyr.gatech.edu : do not question. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------ Date: 13 Apr 89 19:45:33 GMT From: spdcc!ftp!jbvb@husc6.harvard.edu (James Van Bokkelen) Subject: Re: Soviet shutdown of manned space program In article <7940@pyr.gatech.EDU>, ccoprmd@pyr.gatech.EDU (Matthew T. DeLuca) writes: > In article , K_MACART@UNHH.BITNET writes: > > > > I just heard that the CCCP is not putting up manned missions for a while > > (anyone heard how long?). > > My theory is that they are conserving resources for upcoming grandiose > missions... [possible Soviet plans here] > .... I think it far more likely that Gorbachev has realized that with > the straits the economy is in, the Soviet Union will fall further and further > behind the West in economic power and technological capability unless the > government devotes more resources to projects that benefit the consumer... They may also be re-thinking many engineering issues in light of cold fusion. After all, a (low) powered orbit to Mars with a fusion-electric ion drive would be greatly preferable to a mostly-coasting trip with RTG electrical power. Faster, less consumables to haul, more power to use maintaining the environment inside. Son-of-Mir might also be affected. (with rose-tinted glasses in place...) -- James B. VanBokkelen 26 Princess St., Wakefield, MA 01880 FTP Software Inc. voice: (617) 246-0900 fax: (617) 246-0901 ------------------------------ Date: 13 Apr 89 17:26:45 GMT From: ccoprmd@pyr.gatech.edu (Matthew T. DeLuca) Subject: Re: USA vs. USSR In article SEAG19@SDNET.BITNET (Andy Edeburn) writes: > > Hey! Isn't it kind of ridiculous to sit and attempt to compare the US >space program along with the Soviet program? Not really. All I wanted was a comparison of the amount of money each nation devoted to their respective programs. Besides, while they are ahead, they're not so far ahead that the programs are incomparable, and they're not so far ahead that we can't catch them, if we show enough political will. Matthew DeLuca : Georgia Institute of Technology : Certainty is the lot of those who ARPA: ccoprmd@pyr.gatech.edu : do not question. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------ End of SPACE Digest V9 #370 *******************