WatchMe: Supporting Notes For Beat'Em


Mailing Address:
       Bob McElwain, 5092A Tip Top Road, Mariposa, CA 95338


Known Bugs, Pitfalls, And Such:
     > Occasionally the system goes into fibrillation and locks on error. 
Likely unneeded garbage is not being cleared.  Working it.  Try running the
program again.  If not another hit, it was likely this bug.  If the same error
occurs, we'd like to hear about it.  


Reporting Errors:
     Most helpful is a copy of the error message with <Print-Scrn> sent by 
US Mail.  All those funny looking numbers make the fix easier.  If the fix 
is found, we'll forward a corrected copy to registered users at no charge.


       Terms defined:
Watch: Watch to see what develops.  Particularly next week.  May rec change 
       in rate if the new line suggests the same change as in previous week.
VDiff: Difference between line and VPro
LDiff: Difference between line and LPro
LRate: The Local team's power rating
VRate: The Visiting team's power rating
Rec:   Shorthand for recommend or recommendation.  Rec'd changes are made in
       Beat'Gms.Dt and Beat'Tms.Dt.  

NOTE: Our recs do not always produce better results.  To use rates derived
      strictly from Base Rates and scores, use Go Back In Season to Week #0.
      Then use Go To Next Week repeatedly until back to the current week.
      Rates will have been derived only from initial rates and scores.  All
      changes will have been erased.


08/01/94:
    DAL: Rates may be too high.  Dynamite performance in the last two seasons
has pushed the rate up.  With Jimmy Johnson gone, they may not do as well. 
Not so much because of his leaving, but because some key older players also
left.  The first two to three weeks should tell the tale.  If they don't look
as strong as they were last season, Beat 'Em may be slow picking this up.
     NYG: Rates may be too high.  QB Simms is out, reportedly due to the
salary cap.  The new QB [Brown?] looked good in one preseason game, but he's
young, inexperienced.  It's doubtful he'll be able to pick up the slack. 
Watch for decreasing performance early in the season.  And possible
improvement toward the end.
     HOU: Rates may be too high. Lost QB Moon. Reportedly hurt by salary cap.
Definitely worth watching.

08/30/94: Week #1
     > Line loaded to Beat'Gms.Dt
     > Watching the following teams: ARZ, DAL, HOU, IND, LOS, NYG, SDG.
     > HOU @IND + 3.0: VDiff: 16.4  LDiff: 23.7  Both disturbing, even if the
line is low.  But large diffs are common when a strong team plays a weak one. 
Watch IND, but there's nothing here to suggest raising rates.  REC: DROP BOTH
OF HOU's RATES BY 2.0.  
     > PHI @NYG -3.0: Nothing here suggests dropping NYG.  Watch.
     > ARZ @LOS +6.0: LDiff at 12.4 is too high.  Watch both.
     > DAL @PIT +6.0: Nothing here suggests dropping DAL.  Watch.
     > SDG @DEN -7.0: VDiff: 7.8  LDiff: 9.4  SDG may be high.  Watch.


09/06/94: Week #2
     > Last week's scores and current line loaded to Beat'Gms.Dt
     > Calling rates for DAL, LOS, SDG good; no longer watching.
     > Watching ARZ, HOU, IND, LAR, NYG.
     > Nothing seriously suggests adding to the watch list. Diffs look good.
Except for SEA @LAR. Beat'Em dropped LAR's rates on last week's poor go at
SFO. But VDiff: 8.2 and LDiff: 11.5. Neither is out of line, but will check
LAR next week. Maybe drop rates a point.
     > NYG @ARZ: Relative to each other, rates look good. But both may be high
by a point.  The diffs would still look good. Need to check diffs next week
when they're playing different teams, instead of each other.
     > IND @TAM: VDiff: 6.0 LDiff: 6.4 Nothing out of line. But IND's rates
may need to go up a point, considering large diffs w/HOU @IND last week. 
Likely okay, but will check next week.
     > HOU @DAL: Recall rec last week to drop HOU's rates by 2. With this
change, diffs look okay. May drop them another point. Watch.

09/13/94: Week #3
     > Last week's scores and current line loaded to Beat'Gms.Dt
     > Calling ARZ good.
     > Watching HOU, IND, LAR, NYG
     > ARZ @CLE: Diffs good. No watch on ARZ
     > WAS @NYG: LDiff: 10.2  Watch. May need drop of 1 in LRate
     > BUF @HOU: Both diffs a tad high. REC DROP BOTH HOU'S RATES BY 1. Watch
     > IND @PIT: REC RAISE BOTH IND'S RATES BY 1. Reasons above. Watch
     > LAR @DEN: Diffs to great to drop LAR. Watch

09/20/94: Week #4
     > Last week's scores and current line loaded to Beat'Gms.Dt
     > Calling HOU good
     > Watching DET, IND, LAR, NYG, NWE, SDG
     > NYG have bye this week. Rates look good, but check next week. Watch
     > CLE @IND: LDiff: 9.9  IND's LRate still looks high. REC DROP IND'S
LRATE 1 point. Watch
     > NWE @DET: VDiff: 11.3  LDiff: 10.6  New problem!  Bothersome!  The 
line may be wrong; the sign may be the problem.  Both of DET's rates could
have been high in weeks 1-3.  And both of NWE's could have been low.  REC
DROPPING BOTH DET'S RATES BY 1 AND RAISING BOTH OF NWE'S RATES BY 1.  Watch
carefully.  If the line proves to have the wrong sign, reverse changes
immediately.  And be prepared to reverse one or both given next week's line.
     > SDG @LAR: VDiff: 13.7  LDiff: 19.3  Another new problem.  Both diffs
are way out of line.  But it's unlikely LAR's rates were high in weeks #1-4.
Or that SDG's rates were low in weeks #1-2.  Possibly in week #3.  Still
these diffs are gross.  LAR beat DEN badly last week.  It's possible LAR 
fans have bet down the spread.  But even so, it would not account for such
diffs.  REC RAISING BOTH LAR'S RATES BY 1 AND DROP BOTH SDG'S RATES BY 1.
Watch carefully.  Further change may be needed next week.  And it may be
that only one team's rates are incorrect.

09/27/94: Week #4
     > Last week's scores and current line loaded to Beat'Gms.Dt
     > ERROR: Had NWE @DET  3.0 last week. Should be NWE @DET -3.0
With this correction, diffs in this game are good. Change last week must be
reversed. REC DROP BOTH NWE'S RATES BY 2. RAISE BOTH DET'S RATES BY 2. With
these changes, diffs look good this week. No longer watching NWE, DET
     > Calling NYG good. 
     > SEA @IND: LDiff: 10.9  With this diff, must reverse last week's 
change. REC RAISE IND'S LRATE BY 2. Cal IND good
     > Still disturbed about diffs for SDG @LAR last week. [See note above
under 09/20/94]  Since they're not playing this week, have no further clues. 
Suspect problem is with LAR, not SDG. It's possible LAR's rates are low. 
But every season there are problem teams. Often so due to inconsistency.
LAR may be such a team.  Still, REC RAISING BOTH LAR'S RATES BY 1. Since
they're not playing this week, the change can be made in last week with 
Change In A Previous Week. [This is what we did.]  Or the change can be made
next week.
     > HOU @PIT: VDiff: 8.9  LDiff: 12.8  Both HOU's rates still look high.
REC DROP BOTH HOU'S RATES BY 1.
     > NOTE: Since this is the fifth week of the season, we will make no
further recs for changes unless faced with very large diffs or continuing
problems. If it's felt any further change is a must, we strongly urge using
temporary or parallel files in which one can experiment freely.  From here
out, the Watch List should be considered only when making picks, not as a
basis for changes.

WATCH LIST:
     HOU VRate -1?  LRate -1?
     LAR VRATE +1?  LRate +1?

10/04/94: Week #5
     > Diffs all look good this week. LAR seem okay. HOU's not playing next
week, so don't have a diff for them. But they were whipped Monday night; 
their rates will drop. We're turning off Watch on all. Best to let Beat'Em
deal from here on out.
     > Those interested should continue to look for large diffs. Like greater
than 5 for VPro. Greater than 9 or 10 for LPro. If one's found and there's
no good explanation for it, it will be best to track both teams for a couple
of weeks. But we don't recommend making any further rate changes. Simply be
guided by this info in making picks. 
     > Since it's very unlikely any further rate changes will be required,
we'll pass on weekly updates from here on out.
     > If updated data files are needed, please see the ReadMe files for 
details on how to get one.
     > Hope all have a great, winning season!
