SB PROP @ ARRL $ARLP032
ARLP032 Propagation DE KT7H
QST DE W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 32  ARLP032
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  August 13, 1993
To All Radio Amateurs

Solar activity continues low.  For six out of the seven days of our
reporting period for last week the flux remained below the average
for the previous 90 days.  The lowest numbers were over the weekend,
when the flux was 91 for both days.  The most disturbed periods were
when the K index was five, at 0600z on August 5 and 0900z on
August 6.  The A index for both days was below 20.

Look for flux to slowly rise toward a peak below 110 around
August 22 through 25.  There is a possibility of moderate
disturbances from coronal holes around August 16 and 25, and again
on September 1.

There should be a modest improvement in conditions over the next
month as we head toward the Fall season.  A slight rise in average
solar flux is forecast for the next few months, but don't expect
propagation to be as good on the higher frequencies as it has been
over the past few Fall seasons.

Sunspot Numbers from August 5 through 11 were 29, 49, 62, 36, 88, 82
and 92, with a mean of 62.6.  10.7 cm flux was 94.3, 94.4, 91, 91,
96.5, 101.8 and 108.3, with a mean of 96.8.

The path projection for this week is from Los Angeles, California to
Thailand.

Look for 80 meter openings from 1130z to 1400z, peaking around 1230z
to 1300z.  40 meters should be open from 1100z to 1500z, with best
bets also around 1230z to 1300z.  30 meters should be open from
1000z to 1600z, peaking from 1200z to 1400z.  20 meters should be
open from 1330z to 1700z, with the best path during the earlier part
of the opening.  17 meters should have a modest opening on most days
around 2300z to 0100z, and a better opening on some days from 1600z
to 1730z.  Look for 15 meter openings from 2330z to 0530z.  12 and
10 meters will not be good over most days, but check after 2300z
until about 7 or 8 hours later.  Also check 12 meters from 1700z to
1830z.
/EX
