SESC Interim Sunspot Cycle Forecast for Cycle 22 - dated 7/20/87 -l- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -l- l Disclaimer l l There are no clearly superior methods of predict- l l ing the size of sunspot cycles years before maxi- l l mum. However, the method used here has done as l l well as any other method. The numbers graphed l l and tabulated here should be regarded as general l l guidance, and not as exact predictions. l -l- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -l- The predictions are based on the assumption that sunspot minimum occurred in September 1986. The prediction of maximum value of Sunspot Cycle 22 is based on the Ohl- method (as modified by Sargent in 1978). The profile is derived from the last six even-numbered sunspot cycles. In the vicinity of maximum, the 95 percent confidence limits are approximately plus or minus 40 points. The technique would have predicted (or did predict) the max imum value of the last 4 sunspot cycles within 7 percent. The values charted and tabulated are predicted smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers for the designated months. Sunspot Numbers Predicted Maximum 118.6 l ! ! ! ! ! ! -l-120 - + - - - + - - - + - - - + ***- - + - - - + - - l ! ! ************ !** ******* ! l ** ** * l ! ! ** ! ! ! ** ! -l-100 - + - - - + - * - + - - - + - - - + -*** - + - - l ! ! ** ! ! ! *** ! l ** ** l ! !* ! ! ! ** -l- 80 - + - - - ** - - - + - - - + - - - + - - - + ** - l ! ** ! ! ! ! ! *** l * l ! * ! ! ! ! ! -l- 60 - + - * - + - - - + - - - + - - - + - - - + - - l ! * ! ! ! ! ! l ** SESC Interim Forecast for l ! * ! ! SUNSPOT CYCLE 22 ! -l- 40 - ** - - - + - - - + - - - + - - - + - - - + - - l ** ! ! ! ! ! l ** l * ! ! ! ! ! ! -l- 20 - + - - - + - - - + - - - + - - - + - - - + - - l ! ! ! ! ! ! l l ! ! ! ! ! ! -l--------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+------ 1/88 1/89 1/90 1/91 1/92 1/93 Month/Year Month SSN Month SSN Month SSN Month SSN 1/87 16.3 1/89 81.4 1/91 111.8 1/93 85.5 2/87 17.3 2/89 84.9 2/91 112.8 2/93 82.9 3/87 18.6 3/89 88.1 3/91 115.3 3/93 80.5 4/87 19.9 4/89 91.2 4/91 118.0 4/93 78.5 5/87 21.5 5/89 94.2 5/91 118.6 * 5/93 76.9 6/87 23.0 6/89 97.3 6/91 118.0 6/93 75.5 7/87 24.4 7/89 100.3 7/91 117.3 7/93 74.2 8/87 26.3 8/89 102.9 8/91 116.1 8/93 72.5 9/87 28.5 9/89 105.2 9/91 114.2 9/93 69.7 10/87 30.4 10/89 107.7 10/91 113.0 10/93 67.4 11/87 32.6 11/89 110.7 11/91 112.7 11/93 66.8 12/87 35.9 12/89 113.5 12/91 113.3 12/93 66.2 1/88 39.5 1/90 114.6 1/92 112.8 1/94 65.5 2/88 42.0 2/90 115.4 2/92 110.4 2/94 64.5 3/88 44.6 3/90 115.5 3/92 107.1 3/94 63.3 4/88 47.8 4/90 114.8 4/92 103.7 4/94 61.8 5/88 51.1 5/90 114.8 5/92 101.5 5/94 59.4 6/88 55.1 6/90 114.4 6/92 100.2 6/94 56.5 7/88 59.8 7/90 113.9 7/92 98.7 7/94 53.5 8/88 64.3 8/89 113.9 8/92 97.3 8/94 51.2 9/88 68.6 9/90 114.3 9/92 96.4 9/94 49.9 10/88 72.6 10/90 114.8 10/92 94.9 10/94 48.6 11/88 75.7 11/90 114.3 11/92 91.8 11/94 46.8 12/99 77.9 12/90 112.4 12/92 88.6 12/94 44.7 * denotes maximum