Date: 10 May 92 20:51:52 EDT From: Gordon Meyer <72307.1502@COMPUSERVE.COM> Subject: File 7--GEnie Conference on "Virtual Reality" __________________________________________________________ -=(( The Public Forum * NonProfit Connection RoundTable ))=- n -==((( GEnie Page 545 - Keywords PF or NPC )))==- -=((__________________________________________________________))=- Real-time Conference on Virtual Reality with Howard Rheingold (May 3, 1992) =================================================================== Copyright (C) 1992 by GEnie (R) and Public Forum*NonProfit Connection This file may be distributed only in its entirety and with this notice intact. This file is the transcript of a real-time on-line conference in GEnie's Public Forum with Howard Rheingold, author of VIRTUAL REALITY: The Revolutionary Technology of Computer-Generated Artificial Worlds--and How It Promises and Threatens to Transfrom Business and Society. Howard edits _The Whole Earth Review_ and consults with the US Congress Office of Technology Assessment. He has written for such publications as _The New York Times_, _Esquire_, _Playboy_ and _Omni_. His other (excellent!) books include _Tools for Thought_ and _Excursions to the Far Side of the Mind._ _Virtual Reality_ is published by Simon and Shuster. An electronic meeting place for friends, family and national "town meetings," GEnie is an international online computer network for information, education and entertainment. For under $5.00/month, GEnie offers over 50 special interest bulletin boards and unlimited electronic mail at no extra charge during evenings, weekends and holidays. GEnie is offered by GE Information Services, a division of General Electric Company. In the Public Forum*NonProfit Connection, thousands of people every day discuss politics and a wide range of social and nonprofit issues. A neutral arena for all points of view, the PF*NPC is presented by Public Interest Media, a nonprofit organization devoted to empowering people through the socially productive use of information and communication technology. For more information about GEnie or the Public Forum, call 1-800-638-9636 or send electronic mail to tsherman@igc.org. Future real-time conferences, all beginning at 9 p.m. ET, include: Steve Cisler, Apple Computer on data highways (May 10) Katie Hafner, author of Cyberpunk (May 24) Jerry Berman, Esq., Electronic Frontier Foundation (May 31) To sign up for GEnie service, call (with modem in HALF DUPLEX) 800-638-8369. Upon connnection, type HHH. At the U#= prompt, type XTX88367,GENIE . The system will prompt you for information. -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Welcome to the first in this month's series of RTCs on Technology and Society! Please check the schedule, posted in our Announcements topic (cat 1/topic 3) for the other events . . . These realtime conferences raise important issues for the future -- some of them already being discussed in BB Cat 7: Technology, Science and Society . . . You'll also find many excellent files in the Public Forum library, including a couple of articles posted with permission from the editor of The Whole Earth Review -- tonight's special guest, Howard Rheingold . . . For more than 10 years, Howard has been writing books and articles about "mind-amplifying" technologies. Although he questions "the possibility of accurately predicting the social impact of any new technology," (in _Tools for Thought_) . . . he's done a great job helping us think about the social transformations that may be provoked by new technology. I've invited Howard to say a few words of introduction and then . . . he'll answer questions and join in the discussion. When you finish typing, please type GA (for Go Ahead) to let us know that you're done. Three periods means . . . I'm not done talking; please wait a second. And now: here's Howard! Any introductory thoughts? GA <[Howard] PRESS11> Hello! I like a medium where my ability to type fast is rewarded. ;-) I guess the first thing I would like to say about VR is that all the travelling and talking and reading since I finished the book have changed some of my attitudes. I would say that I am more skeptical and less enthusiastic about the technology's potential than I was when I wrote the book. Howard, are there any particular aspects of VR you'd like us to focus on? <[Howard] PRESS11> One thing I have noticed is that VR is almost like a metaphor for technology for many people. This is, it is a way to talk about some of the hopes and fears we have about the way the world seems to be heading. In truth, the technology isn't going to affect most of us for years to come. I'd like to talk about the ethics of VR. I'm not sure what to do about it, but I find myself wondering about the potentially harmful applications, especially since the Gulf War used VR so successfully. <[..Ryan...] R.MACMICHAEL> From what I've heard, it is planned on being used to test-fly planes before they are built in order to anticipate problems... ... but how could that be done (the real world emulated so closely) in a way that humans couldn't pick up on them just as fast. ga <[Howard] PRESS11> Flight simulation is one of the roots of VR. Flight simulators, both civilian and military, are far more realistic (and expensive) than the Virtuality games or anything we are likely to see in arcades for the next decade or two. ga Ryan, follow up question? <[..Ryan...] R.MACMICHAEL> Yes... How soon would they be used for safety purposes on a more wide-scale basis? (in the way I mentioned above) ga <[Howard] PRESS11> Flight simulators have been used for decades. United Airlines has a HUGE flight simulator in, I think, Denver. Only the military use the full-tilt 3D goggles, but the view-through-the-window stuff is pretty impressive. GA Thanks, Ryan <[..Ryan...] R.MACMICHAEL> Thanks... <[Connie] C.RIFENBURG> What has made you more skeptical and less enthusiastic ...and what did you =think= was the potential before now... what do you believe =is= the potential NOW? GA <[Howard] PRESS11> I don't think that it is a good idea to blur the line between playing a video game and blowing up people. And I think that the medium, if perfected, will be a very powerful tool for mind control... After all, people decide who to elect and what to buy and how to live according to the images that we see on a tiny 2D television tube. How much more powerful will VR be? Are we really sure that the medical and design uses are worth the other uses? Do we really really need this stuff? Perhaps we ought to spend more time looking at the toxicity of the environment, and preserving the cultures and biomass that use plants as healing agents, instead of creating 3D tools for irradiating tumors. In regard to the humanities at universities, I understand that there is a center for the arts in Banff that is doing good work. And Carl Loeffler at Carnegie Mellon is doing some stuff with the arts and VR. GA <[Connie] C.RIFENBURG> So you think it's like the quandry similar to what the A-Bomb created? Good/Bad: How can we manage it? GA <[Howard] PRESS11> Yes, I think we, as a species, ought to take a closer look at the natural world that we seem to be destroying. I'm not so sure that we will be altogether happy in a totally simulated world when all the real trees are dead. ga Thanks Connie. Dave Baldwin, your question? <[Dave] D.BALDWIN8> Other than the obvious military and video game applications, where would you... anticipate VR technology showing up in the next decade or so? Anywhere useful,... Or will it just be a novelty? GA <[Howard] PRESS11> 3D CAD pretty soon. Autodesk and IBM will probably both have products out next year. The design industry will be the first to have a crack at it. Scientific visualization and telerobotic control are the other two fields that will have tools within the next couple years. ga Because so many of you want to ask questions of Howard, I'm gonna skip the follow up questions until we've gone around once . . . Bart, your question? <[Dave] D.BALDWIN8> how much more efficient will it be, though? and what about the cost/benefits? <[bart] B.PREECS> Howard, do you see VR falling under the control of the same people/organizations that control our existing media system Ga <[Howard] PRESS11> Regarding efficiency -- if you have a design problem that involves visualizing a complex 3D space, then even today's crude level might be a useful tool. Good question. We'll have to see how the architects and designers react. . . Yes, I think ALL technologies that create power and wealth are likely to fall under control of those who recognize that, and who already have the power and wealth to seize control of the new media . . . Are we really sure that hobbyists and artists and benign folks are going to be the ones who use VR to the largest effect? Or will it be a weapon and mind-control device? ga Bart, thanks! Rick D, your question? What would the hardware requirements be for the VR systems of, say, the next three to five years? Would a standard PC of today work for the systems you mentioned might be released next year?? GA <[Howard] PRESS11> The cost of chips seems to be coming down. A 486 engine, for example, is pretty affordable now, and you can do some stuff with it. But you really want ten times the power. . . The transputer architectures, where you put a bunch of chips together, have some promise. I think people will be able to do some fun stuff with desktop VR in the next few years, but the resolution and reaction speed won't be great. ga Ric Helton, your question? <[Ric] GRAFFITI> A perfect application of VR hardware (and one that is likely to speed its development) is "telepresence" (being somewhere else through remote control, complete with sight & sounds). How long will it take telepresence to become commonplace? How far will it trickle down to "mundane" occupations? (Not astronautics, nuclear waste management or the like.) GA <[Howard] PRESS11> Don't expect anything affordable and high-res in the telepresence area for five or ten or fifteen years. There are a lot of problems to be solved, and a lot of expensive hardware is necessary ga Thanks, Ric, Dave Messer, your question? <[Dave] D.MESSER> It seems to me that VR also has a potential to help the environment by reducing pollution, how big an impact do you thing "telecommuting" will have with VR? ga <[Howard] PRESS11> I think we will all be dead from toxic chemicals, ozone depletion, and the world's largest traffic jam by the time VR has any impact. In other words, I think the promise of VR telecommuting is bogus if you look at it in context of the problems. If Time/Warner is doing anything, it is strictly exploratory. Unless they are going into the theme park business. Disney and Fujitsu, for example, are creating stuff that we will see in theme parks in a few years, but not at home. Two limitations: screen resolution, and computing power, are hard. But you can't forget that good software takes a while to create. When LCD screens are ten times as good and one tenth the price, we'll see some action. When you can get CRAY power on a desktop for less than $1000. Frank, your question <[Frank] F.DUROSS> We have heard the term electronic LSD many times, how might VR be used as a form of mind expansion? How might it be abused? GA <[Howard] PRESS11> I go into it in my book. I think the electronic LSD argument is a red-herring for the near future. People are already incredibly addicted to television, a truly stupefying drug. It will take decades to create electronic LSD. The worst abuse model, as I mentioned, is television. Withdrawal from the real world ga Phil, your question? <[PHIL] P.VOYSTOCK> Can you be more specific regarding your fear of mind control applications with VR technology? GA <[Howard] PRESS11> "Perception is Reality." Willie Horton elected George Bush. A videotape burned down LA. Technologies that can manipulate emotions via perceptions are technologies for manipulating beliefs, and thus for controlling people politically. If television works so well with such little involvement, what will VR do? ga M.DAVIS, your question? I've devoured CQ/Whole Earth Review for many years. Thanks for the great resource. I've heard tell of VR potentially being used in biomedical/genetic engineering on a molecular scale. What are some of the high points/dangers of these developments? GA <[Howard] PRESS11> Actually, I am much more interested in and concerned with developments in artificial life research. But that's another topic. Look for a LOT on that in the Fall, 1992, WER. VR is being used as in interface to microengineering, which COULD lead to nanodevices. A whole new ball game if that's true. It will take years. ga David G, your question? <[david] D.GALBRAITH5> where is VR design work/discussion happening outside of the military-industrial complex? <[Howard] PRESS11> IBM announced a joint venture with a small British company. Fujitsu working on entertainment applications. Various projects at computer companies. A couple dozen small start-ups. It is healthy but not huge, exept in Japan, where significant money -- tens of millions per year -- is still being spent. ga Joe, your question? What is the role of VR's money-making potential in determining how it is developed? ga <[Howard] PRESS11> When one company or industry demonstrates that using VR will give it competitive advantage, it will drive development; when one kind of application makes economies of scale effective for components, it drives developments in other fields. We have yet to see an example of either. The next five years will tell the tale. ga Bil. Swartz, your question? Having recently picked up your book 'VR' to hopefully find some answers but not having time to more than crack the cover I find it erie that you are here to ask in person! I would like to know more about the current state of feed back devices. The bulky feedback devices such as that ARM... ouch. How much got thru? ga Bart, you had a question. <[bart] B.PREECS> Howard, in *your* opinion, what is the most *useful* thing VR could do that we couldn't do with out it? GA <[Howard] PRESS11> The most useful thing, I think, is scientific visualization. Just as a microscope made modern medicine possible because biologists could SEE germs, I think the use of VR to visualize things like the way the immune system works could help give scientists important new insights. ga Phil, your question? <[PHIL] P.VOYSTOCK> How long did it take to reasearch/write your book? <[Howard] PRESS11> I travelled and interviewed and did a lot of reading for about a year, and spent about another year writing and filling in other interviews and reading. ga Dave M, your question? <[Dave] D.MESSER> Do you think that VR technology should be controller or suppressed due to the dangers involved? GA <[Howard] PRESS11> No, I don't think "controlled" or "suppressed" are the right words. I don't think we even HAVE the right words. We need to find ways, as a society, to have discussions about how to guide technological development. I trust neither the government nor private enterprise, given the history of the past decades. . . Although I don't have the answer, I do believe that it is important for citizens to inform ourselves about the potential consequences of technology, and to raise these questions. Unfortunately, our society can't even handle discussions of basic human rights or environmental dangers versus economics. The best I can do is write books and talk to people and encourage them to ask questions. ga Adrn, your turn <[Adrn] A.DEMARAIS> The sci-fi book Ender's Game was about a child prodigy being taught how to wage a war in simulators, only to discover that it was all real and he had destroyed a civilization . Is this what you fear VR might become? GA <[Howard] PRESS11> Ender's Game is one real fear, yes. I think it is entirely possible, given the way military uses of technology have evolved, and how well VR did in the Gulf. War is bad enough, but what if we don't know whether we are playing a game or blowing up real people somewhere? ga Dave Galbraith, your turn! <[david] D.GALBRAITH5> Do you know of any specific public access forums for individuals involved with VR using TODAY's level of computing hardware? GA <[Howard] PRESS11> You mean places to talk about it? There is the VR conference on the WELL, and the usenet newsgroup, sci.virtual-worlds, both of which have a lot of We're going to end the formal RTC now. I want to thank you all for some great questions and to thank Howard for taking time (from his next book and his garden) to answer them . . . We can continue to chat informally, and Howard, before you go, I wonder if you . . . <[Howard] PRESS11> Dinner is awaiting me! Thanks for the questions, and keep on asking them! <[Howard] PRESS11> ** has left. -----# Participants #----- <[Adrn] A.DEMARAIS> <[bart] B.PREECS> <[Connie] C.RIFENBURG> <[Dave] D.BALDWIN8> <[david] D.GALBRAITH5> <[Dave] D.MESSER> <[Frank] F.DUROSS> <[Ric] GRAFFITI> <[Missy] M.ALLEN18> <[PHIL] P.NICHOLLS2> <[PHIL] P.VOYSTOCK> <[Howard] PRESS11> <[..Ryan...] R.MACMICHAEL> <[Tom] SHERMAN> ______________________________________________________ | | | The Public Forum * NonProfit Connection RoundTable |______ |______________________________________________________| | | Sysops' GE Mail: PF$ RTC Sunday 9pm EDT: MOVE 545;2 |______ |___________________________________________________________| | | News, Current Events, Government, Societal Issues, Nonprofits | |________________________________________________________________| # # # Downloaded From P-80 International Information Systems 304-744-2253