From: "Tony Akins" Subject: APPS: "Virtual Reality Could Liberate the Disabled," article Date: Fri, 14 Feb 92 15:37:41 CST First, my thanks go out to Bob Jackson for his invite to post my "presentation" here. A little background as to where this idea came from: I'm a student in the Studies of the Futures graduate program at University of Houston-Clear Lake, and I'm particularly interested in how computers will be used in the future. The paper "Virtual Reality and the Physically Disabled: Speculations of the Future," on which the article was based came out of a "larger" experiment. As I thought there might be some interest in the "whole" experiment, I've gathered up some notes (in other words this is a long posting). Originally, the main purpose of the experiment was to see how the ninebox and timeline tools worked across a computer conferencing environment. Normally, these tools are used in meetings or group situations, with people marking or drawing their answers on a blackboard. I chose virtual reality as my topic mostly because of my interest in vr, particularly as a form of human/computer interface. The results were interesting, and serve to provide enough speculation for the paper being presented at the conference in March. The article in EE Times capture the essence of the paper well. Introduction to The Tools ------------------------ The Nine-Box ------------- The nine-box is a three by three square, the y axis shows the probability of the trend being correct, while the x-axis shows the expected impact of the trend. One places an x in the box that best matches one's opinion of the combination of probability/impact. An example: The increased use of portable communication devices (laptop PCs, cellular phones, paging devices) is increasing stress in the home as work is able to follow the worker from the office to the home (getting more difficult to leave the office). +---------+---------+---------+ | | | | P | | | | r High | | | | o | | | | b T +---------+---------+---------+ a o r | | | | b f e | | | y | i n Medium | | | | l d | | | | i +---------+---------+---------+ t | | | | y | | | | Low | x | | | | | | | +---------+---------+---------+ Low Medium High Here we have two respondents, x and y. X feels that the probability of the trend occurring is low, and even if it did occur would have little impact. Y has a different opinion, feeling that the probability of the trend occurring is medium, but that the impact would be high. The Timeline ------------ The timeline is used to chart the impact of a technology or trend along a timeline. It is a two dimensional chart. On the y axis we consider the impact, from low to medium to high. On the x axis we show the time span, in this case in 5 year increments. An example: The trend: Big cities might well become obsolete in the information age. Using the time timeline below, here's how one person plotted (drew) their opinion. +---------+---------+---------+ | | | | | | | ..| High | | | . | | | | . | +---------+---------+--.------+ | | | . | | | | . | Medium | | | . | | | |. | +---------+--------.+---------+ | | . | | | | . | | Low |.........|. | | | | | | +---------+---------+---------+ 1990 1995 2000 2005 The person is showing that they think initially the impact of the information age will have little effect on big cities. But as time progresses, toward the last 5 years of this century, the effect will increase. In fact, by the early years in the next century, the impact will be great. By the year 2005 the impact is leveling off. An Analysis and Summary of the Experiment ----------------------------------------- First off, some raw numbers: - on November 14, 1990, I announced the experiment and asked for volunteers - as of Nov 29, 1990, a total of 57 people requested more information - as of Nov 27, 1990, a total of 26 people sent responses to me Now for a little discussion of how the responses are analyzed. There are two major items of interest: the consensus response (that is, the response that seems to reflect the opinion of the greatest number of participants) and the outliers (the responses that for some reason lie outside of the consensus. Once these items have been identified, one tries to get the opinions of the outliers first, as their comments may point to new ideas or concepts that the "group" may have not considered. Then you take a look at the opinions or comments of the consensus. In some cases a clear consensus or outlier was not apparent, in those cases, I've reported back on what seem to be the dominant themes. .................... . Ninebox Analysis . .................... Two questions were posed to the audience. I'll report on each question/trend individually. First trend 1. Trend 1: -------- The impact upon society as the technology of direct mind interaction implants is developed and used. Total responses: 24 +---------+---------+---------+ | | | x x x | P | x | | x x x | r High | | | | o | | | | b T +---------+---------+---------+ a o r | | | x x x | b f e | | | x x x | i n Medium | | | x x x | l d | | | | i +---------+---------+---------+ t | | | x x x | y | x x | | x x x | Low | | | | | | | | +---------+---------+---------+ Low Medium High Impact of Trend A single dominant consensus is not really apparent. The medium probability / high impact (mp/hi) quadrant received the most "votes" with 9. However, both the high probability / high impact (hp/hi) and low probability / high impact (lp/hi) received 6 "votes" each. From that I lean toward saying the consensus felt that the impact of direct mind interaction on society would definitely be high, while the actual probability was spread, with the greatest number of "votes" saying the probability of direct mind interaction was medium. We have two outlier groups, one "vote" was cast for high probability / low impact (hp/li) and two "votes" were cast for low probability / low impact (lp/li). Comments: Here's a sampling of responses from the outlier groups: (hp/li) - possibility for misuse is great, poses dangers for health and sanity. (li/lp) - Technology interfacing with neurology is still at the point of using a backhoe to remove dental plaque: the tools may be powerful but inappropriate. Direct mind interaction has many bad possibilities, implants could be like mind-altering drugs, or worse could be used to control people. Here's a sampling of responses from the consensus (hp/hi) - Good (experiences beyond our imagination will be possible) Bad (virtual drugs, escapes from reality) "great equalizer" - VR could allow people with poor eyesight or other abilities to improve their disabilities. (mp/hi) - Good and bad possibilities, dependent on how VR is used. Could be seen as just another way to interact with information (like tv, radio, books) Some may see this as being unethical (lp/hi) - the bad possibilities of direct mind interaction will cause the technology to be unaccepted by wary individuals. Trend 2: -------- Business travel decreases as the use of virtual meetings rooms and similar VR technology is used in the business place to enhance meetings of all kinds. Total responses: 25 +---------+---------+---------+ | | x x x x | | P | | x x x x | x x x | r High | | x x x | | o | | | | b T +---------+---------+---------+ a o r | | | | b f e | x | x x x | x | i n Medium | | x x | | l d | | | | i +---------+---------+---------+ t | | | | y | x x | x x | | Low | | | | | | | | +---------+---------+---------+ Low Medium High Impact of Trend This trend produced a more dominant single consensus, but also resulted in a greater overall spread of answers. The high probability / medium impact (hp/mi) quadrant received the most "votes" with 11. Another strong showing was by the medium probability / medium impact (mp/mi) quadrant with 5 votes. The high probability / high impact quadrant received 3 votes as well. Based off that the consensus seems to feel that the probability of the trend occurring is high (14 out of 25 respondents felt the probability of the trend would be high), while the impact would be medium (16 out of 25). The outliers fall into four quadrants (mp/li - 1, mp/hi -1, lp/li - 2, and lp/mi - 2). The majority of the outliers leaned toward a low to medium impact of the trend with low to medium probability of it occurring. Comments: Here's a sampling of comments from the outliers: In general, outliers felt that there will always be a need for business to be conducted "in person," to press the flesh. One respondent commented that technological increases in travel over the same time period could cause the impact of "virtual meetings" to be a washout. Here's a sampling of responses from the consensus: (hp/mi) - businesses become more effective as travel time is eliminated. (hp/hi) - As business travel drops off, companies whose income relies on business will either die off, or will invest in VR technology. (mp/mi) - possible pressure on businesses to concentrate on network working (the workers will work from several different locations, and network together) versus centralized working (in the central office) .................................. . Timeline Question and Analysis . .................................. Trend 1: -------- The impact upon society as virtual reality interfaces become the preferred method for individuals to interact with a computer. Summary: First a quick verbal summary. A total of 27 responses were collected. I then grouped the timelines into several major curve types, as follows: The Consensus ------------ To the Top (s curve) 12 timelines fell into this category To the Top (exponential) 3 timelines fit this curve The burp 6 timelines fall in this category In the middle ------------- Medium Growth 1 person used an "s" curve to show a medium growth of impact across the timeline 2 people used a more or less straightline to chart growth of impact from low to medium. The Outliers ------------ Slow fall 1 timeline was in this category. This timeline considered the impact of ascii vr devices, and plotted impact from high down to medium over the life of the timeline Low growth 1 person used a more or less straightline to chart that little impact would occur over the life of the timeline To give you an idea of how the consensus curves look, I've reproduced them below. (12) s - To the top, shows a rapid rate of growth, followed by a period of stabilization. +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+ | | | | s s s s s s s s | | | | | s | | High | | | s | | | | | s | | | +---------+---------+-----s---+---------+---------+ | | | s | | | | | | s | | | Medium | | | s | | | | | | s | | | +---------+---------s---------+---------+---------+ | | s| | | | | | s | | | | Low | | s | | | | |s s s s s|s s | | | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+ 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (3) t - To the top, shows a steady growth of impact, from low to high impact by the end of the time frame. In some cases, an almost exponential growth was shown. +---------+---------+---------+---------+------t--+ | | | | | t | | | | | | t | High | | | | | t | | | | | | t | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---t-----+ | | | | | t | | | | | |tt | Medium | | | | t t| | | | | | t t | | +---------+---------+--------t+t--------+---------+ | | | t t | | | | | |t t | | | Low | | t t t | | | | |t t t t t| | | | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+ 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (6) b - The burp curve, shows a steady rise, fall, then stabilization. +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | High | | | | b b | | | | | |b b | | +---------+---------+--------b+--------b+b--------+ | | | b b | | b b b b| | | | b | | | Medium | | |b | | | | | b b| | | | +---------+--b-b--- +---------+-------- +---------+ | |b | | | | | b b| | | | | Low | b | | | | | |b b | | | | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+ 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Comments: In general a majority of the group feels that VR would play a significant role in how we use computers in the future. Many felt the impact of VR would be slow in coming, but once started would grow rapidly. Those who drew "burp" and "s" curves often saw VR as experiencing a very heavy growth then stabilizing as the technology becomes accepted in society, up to the same degree as microwaves, vcrs and the like are accepted today. At that point the impact stabilizes or actually suffers a fall. Trend 2: -------- Increasing interest in the VR field will lead to inexpensive, and available VR technology that will enhance the lives of the physically handicapped. Summary: First a quick verbal summary. A total of 25 responses were collected. I then grouped the timelines into several major curve types, as follows: The Consensus ------------ To the Top (s curve) 7 timelines fell into this category To the Top (exponential) 6 timelines fit this curve Medium Growth 5 timelines fell into this category, 1 was an "s" type. Low Growth 5 timelines fell into this category, and were mostly of the straightline type. The Outliers ------------ The burp 1 timeline fell in this category Comments: As can be seen this timeline produced a much greater spread, with the result being it was a bit difficult to pick a dominant impact timeline. Over half of the people who drew timelines felt that VR could have a very significant impact on the lives of the handicapped, by providing an environment, a virtual reality where they would not be handicapped. VR could also offer the possibility of aiding people with handicaps, by improving sight, hearing, helping paraplegics to walk, etc.. On the other hand, 10 of the group felt that the expense of VR technology would almost surely keep the technology from having a large impact on the lives of the handicapped. In fact, the expense was noted by one respondent as something that would cause a (temporarily) greater separation between the handicapped and the rest of the population. VR would be available to those who could afford it, which would normally not include the handicapped. Tony Akins