From: js@montaigne.lif.icnet.uk (Jack Shirazi ) Subject: PHIL: Reality vs model Date: 11 Dec 1992 09:56:33 -0000 Organization: Imperial Cancer Research Fund In article <1992Dec11.053625.721@u.washington.edu> herbt@naaman.sarnoff.com (Herbert H Taylor III) writes: > > The emergence of low cost, light weight, (eventually) photographic >resolution displays for "head", "wall" or "lap", combined with >sufficient I/O bandwidth and supercomputer class processing power will >profoundly alter our world in ways we can't presently imagine. We will >soon see the day when a scientist can virtually explore complex >spaces, when astronauts can travel to distant planets without leaving >the earth, when architects can walk through buildings which haven't >been built, when surgeons can operate without scalpel or saw; a day >when such experiences can offer a truly compelling, visceral sense of >actual presence. Some of these things have already happened - perhaps >crudely in "demo" mode - but things will only get better. > > Herb Taylor These models will only be as accurate as the programmers and knowledge bases they rely on. Currently, long range predictions and lots (LOTS!) of money are being reallocated on the basis of models of the world's weather system. The people who build these models will be the first to tell you that they are grossly simplified, they take into account a small fraction of what is known and obviously nothing of what isn't. And yet every new pronouncment (2% increase in temperature in 50 years, etc) from these models are announced over news programs, governments act on them, and so on. If I model a surface derived from some equation in the computer I can probably use it to explore that surface with confidence, the main source of error is likely to be bugs in the program. If I model a protein folding, I'd better assume that what I learn is only something which can be used as a hypothesis to be tested. If I using my VR environment as a sophisticated telephone to interact with other people, I should keep in the back of my mind that the other people are not necessarily who I think they are (ever had a phone conversation like that?). -- Jack js@bison.lif.icnet.uk If you only have a hammer, you tend to see every problem as a nail. -- Maslow