
==============================================================

TODAY'S ISSUES==> TOPIC: MILITARY & ARMS      Ref: CEWJ2364 Date: 10/27/95
From: STEVE SCHULTZ (Leader)                                Time: 03:39pm
\/To: ALL                                                 (Read 9 times)
Subj: BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA UPDATE

Bosnian Serbs yesterday agreed to allow international relief
organizations, particularly the I.C.R.C., access to areas near Banja Luka,
where they are believed to have detained hundreds of Muslim men. (Raymond
Bonner/N.Y.T.)

===================================================================

TODAY'S ISSUES==> TOPIC: MILITARY & ARMS      Ref: CEXK0467 Date: 10/28/95
From: STEVE SCHULTZ (Leader)                                Time: 04:07pm
\/To: ALL                                                 (Read 3 times)
Subj: BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA UPDATE

The scheduled meeting in Moscow on Tuesday between Russian President Boris
N. Yeltsin and the presidents of Bosnia, Croatia, and Serbia has been
cancelled. Yeltsin suffered an attack of myocardial ischemia, an
insufficiency of oxygenated blood to the heart, on Thursday and has been
hospitalized. His doctors say that he will need close medical supervision
for at least six weeks. Scheduled state visits to China and Norway next
month have also been cancelled. Yeltsin will probably work outside the
Kremlin at a slower pace, perhaps at the Barvikha Sanatorium.

Russia has agreed to contribute noncombatant soldiers to a Bosnian
peacekeeping force serving under GEN George Joulwan in his capacity as a
U.S. commander rather than as a N.A.T.O. commander. Joulwan is both
commander of U.S. forces in Europe and Supreme Allied Commander, Europe.
For the operation a Russian general, Leonti P. Shevtsov, would serve as
Joulwan's deputy. Russian forces would be, with some U.S. forces, in a
multinational special operations unit. They would be lightly armed to
perform engineering, transport, and construction missions, a month after
the arrival of heavily armed peacekeepers. A meeting on the issue of
Russian combatant troops is to be held in two weeks in Brussels, Belgium.
Russia wants to send 10,000 - 12,000 troops total, about ten times the
number there now. Also to be worked out is the payment question. (James
Brooke and Steven Erlanger/N.Y.T.)

=============================================================

TODAY'S ISSUES==> TOPIC: MILITARY & ARMS      Ref: CEYI2417
Date: 10/29/95 From: STEVE SCHULTZ (Leader)                     
			 Time: 02:40pm \/To: ALL                               
					  (Read 6 times) Subj: BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA UPDATE

The United States on Friday rejected a State Department proposal
to suspend most economic sanctions against Serbia as a way of
encouraging peace talks. The sanctions would have been suspended
during the talks and reimposed if no settlement was reached.

Talks between Croatia and Serbs controlling eastern Slavonia
were delayed yesterday when neither side arrived for a meeting.
The Serbs demanded more time to examine a draft agreement.
Croatia did not come, expecting the talks to be cancelled.
Croatian Serbs have reportedly accepted reintegration into
Croatia, but are holding out for a lengthy transition period
under international supervision. (Reuters and Elaine
Sciolino/N.Y.T.)



========================================================================

TODAY'S ISSUES==> TOPIC: MILITARY & ARMS      Ref: CEZJ3130 Date: 10/30/95
From: STEVE SCHULTZ (Leader)                                Time: 03:52pm
\/To: ALL                                                 (Read 7 times)
Subj: BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA UPDATE

Croats and Bosnian Croats voted yesterday for a new Croatian Parliament.
The election has been criticized because it does not allow Serbs forced
out of Croatia to vote, and because it is being conducted under rules and
Government-controlled media that favor President Franjo Tudjman's Croatian
Democratic Union party, which is expected to win an overwhelming majority.
More than a dozen parties took part, but only two or three are expected to
win seats. Tudjman's party will have 12 seats in the 128 seat Parliament,
nonresident Croats have 12, ethnic Serbs in Croatia have three down from
13 currently, and Czechs, Germans, Hungarians, Italians, and Ukrainians
each get a seat. Muslims get none.

The Bosnian Government and Bosnian Serbs exchanged prisoners yesterday.
The Bosnian Serbs freed nine soldiers and Bosnia freed 10.

The United States will reportedly halt Preadator unmanned reconnaissance
flights over Bosnia as of Nov. 5, says Koha Jone. Recent operations have
reportedly been scaled back. (A.F.P. and Raymond Bonner/N.Y.T.; Reuters,
Fabian Schmidt, OMRI, Inc.)

==============================================================



	MILOSEVIC: BALKAN PEACE NOW RELIES ON MAN WHO FANNED



		Robert Frasure, the American diplomat who died in an

	accident near Sarajevo last August and dealt extensively with
the

	Serbian president, once said he was reminded of "a Mafia boss
who

	desperately wants to get out of the business."



NYTimes October 31st



MILOSEVIC: BALKAN PEACE NOW RELIES ON MAN WHO FANNED

By ROGER COHEN



BELGRADE, Serbia - Slobodan Milosevic, the Serbian president, is
often to

be found padding through the cavernous presidency building in
Belgrade,

alone except for a single faithful aide.



"He's the only person you ever see there," said an American
official who

has conversed a great deal with Milosevic of late. "It's eerie
the way he

rattles around the building. Once he wandered into a side room
and

muttered about never having been in it before. Sometimes you ask
yourself:

Is there anyone else in this country?"



It is a pertinent question. Eight years after he seized power by
exhorting

Serbs to rise against perceived past injustices and create a
"Greater

Serbia." Now, four years after the wars of Yugoslavia's
destruction

began, Milosevic stands alone. He seems close to the end of a
labyrinthine

political journey that has left his ragtag band of former
nationalist

allies and his former country devastated.



What remains is one man's almost uncontested personal power in
Serbia, and

his remorseless quest for the renewed international
respectability that

would vindicate him.



Milosevic's visit to the United States for the peace talks that
are to

start on Wednesday in Dayton, Ohio, brings him closer than ever
to that

goal. For a long time, he has yearned to set foot in America. It
is the

closest thing to the fulfillment of an obsession: He is given to

reminiscences of the "wonderful smells of New York" and the
charms of

the Drake Hotel, a regular haunt during his stint as president
of a major

Belgrade bank.



But even as he emerges from isolation, cast in the role of
peacemaker,

this man of jutting jaw and shifting tactics seems haunted by
his past.



Now seen by western powers as a key figure in the quest for
peace in the

Balkans, Milosevic is also the man most identified with the
descent of

Yugoslavia into war.



Like shadows, the wars of Croatia and Bosnia, their bloodshed
and their

atrocities, keep darkening his path, even as he charms dignitary
after

dignitary with good humor, good English and apparent good will.



This month, the dignitary was Richard Holbrooke, assistant
secretary of

state who is chief American envoy to the Balkans; the atrocities
were

those reportedly carried out in northwest Bosnia by Zeljko
Raznatovic, the

Serbian paramilitary leader known as Arkan.



Between Oct. 6 and 12, half of an estimated 2,000 Muslim men who
had been

detained in the area were killed. Holbrooke's question was
simple: Can't

you control Arkan?



The response, American officials said, was outraged
protestation. Not only

could he not control Arkan, Milosevic insisted, but the
paramilitary

leader would probably kill him if he had a chance. "Arkan is my
sworn

enemy," an official quoted Milosevic as saying.



The reply was consistent. Through 42 months of war in Bosnia, he
has held

fast to his position: Bosnia is another country. To link him
with killing

or genocide there, Milosevic told BBC television recently, "is
really out

of all consideration."



The case of Arkan is, however, difficult to reconcile with
Milosevic's

claims. An intelligence report carried by Holbrooke, for example,

confirmed that Arkan was already in the employ of the Serbian
security

services in the late 1980s.



But Milosevic is a persuasive man. He exudes power; he wants
peace now; he

likes America. He can also be witty. When an American official
recently

asked about Russian "humanitarian aid" for Serbia, Milosevic
scoffed:

"Humanitarian aid? You mean some meat we had to bury because it
was

radioactive and some biscuits manufactured in 1969?" His
pronunciation of

"biscuits" is "bis-kweets."



This bonhomie alternates with a frozen stoniness. When 170,000
Serbs were

chased from the Krajina in August, he remained silent and
distant. He is

apt to set his jaw, narrow his shrewd eyes and wave away the
carnage of

Bosnia. The basic message is: These Bosnian Serbs are crazy, so
what can I

do?



Robert Frasure, the American diplomat who died in an accident
near

Sarajevo last August and dealt extensively with the Serbian
president,

once said he was reminded of "a Mafia boss who desperately wants
to get

out of the business."



Milosevic has been trying since mid-1993 to put the tidal wave
of Serbian

nationalism he orchestrated and the accompanying destruction of
Yugoslavia

behind him. His conclusion that diplomacy could achieve his ends
-

described by one American official as "Greater Serbia Lite" - is
what

now makes him central to American diplomacy.



"Forced to choose between Greater Serbia and Greater Slobo,
there is

no doubt where Milosevic has come down," said one western
diplomat. "He

now sees Serbia as a prosperous little eastern gateway to
Europe, and he

needs peace to secure that."



Over the last several months, moreover, Milosevic has delivered.
He has

forced the Bosnian Serbs to line up behind him and begin serious
peace

negotiations. And American officials say he has promised that,
in the

event of a peace, elections would oust the Bosnian Serb leader,
Radovan

Karadzic, and the Serbs' military leader, Ratko Mladic, would be
removed.



The removal of these men, closely identified with the massacre
of Muslims,

is almost certainly vital if any Bosnian peace is to last and
any hope

remains of patching Bosnia together again.



Thus Milosevic has an important role, if he can be taken at his
word. But

if Mladic can be removed, why could his savage assault on
Srebrenica not

be stopped?



Moreover, Milosevic's recent compliancy, like many other
tactical switches

in his career, begs the question of what he believes in and to
what extent

he is believable.



He was born in the provincial town of Pozarevac, about 50 miles
from

Belgrade, the son of an Orthodox priest who committed suicide
when his son

was 4. His mother was a schoolteacher who committed suicide
several years

later.



Milosevic, earnest and energetic, embraced communism early and
rose

through the ranks, hitched to the coat-tails of Ivan Stambolic,
the leader

of the Serbian Communist Party, whom he ultimately humiliated
and deposed

in 1987.



The vehicle for this humiliation, and for Milosevic's own
apotheosis, was

Serbian nationalism. He discovered its force, and potential
political

rewards, in Kosovo in April 1987.



In a stand-off between the Serbs of the then-autonomous region
and the

ethnic Albanians who account for 90 percent of Kosovo's
population,

Milosevic abruptly shed the dour garb of the apparatchik to side
with the

Serbs against the mainly Albanian authorities of his own party.



Film of this critical moment shows Milosevic hesitating before
the Serbian

crowd, then ditching his past, thundering to the ecstatic crowd
of Serbs:

"Nobody has the right to beat you!"



Having sensed his opportunity, Milosevic moved fast. Medieval
battles, the

relics of Serbian kings, the sacrifices of Serbian soldiers in
two world

wars, the alleged injustices endured by Serbs in Tito's
Yugoslavia, all

suddenly became grist for the nationalist mill.



When tens of thousands of Serbs, appalled by the increasingly
hate-filled

propaganda on state-controlled media, tried to protest in the
streets of

Belgrade in 1991, Milosevic crushed them with tanks.



Baying supporters, bused through Serbia, chanted the name of
"Slobo" as

he eliminated the autonomous status of Kosovo and Vojvodina and
brought

them under direct Serbian rule. Serbia, the refrain went, would
no longer

be humiliated. The motto of his communist-turned-socialist party
was:

"Serbia does not kneel."



"The national and historic being of Serbs," Milosevic declared,
"is a

liberating one."



But the rest of Yugoslavia did not want to be "liberated;" on the

contrary, it took fright. Indeed, perhaps the deepest irony of
the Serbs'

argument that they have only fought in the last four years
because they

wanted to remain in Yugoslavia is that Milosevic almost
certainly did more

than anyone to destabilize the country and set it on its course
to

implosion.



Another irony is that the very right the Serbs have claimed -
that of

their people in Bosnia and Croatia to govern themselves - was
precisely

the one Milosevic denied to the ethnic Albanians of Kosovo.



Moreover, it has become clear that Milosevic's real interest in
preserving

Yugoslavia was slight. When Slovenia seceded on June 26, 1991,
it was

allowed to go with scarcely a fight: there was no Serbian
minority there.

The real aim, as a senior presidential aide, Borislav Jovic,
recently

explained, was to use wars in Croatia and Bosnia to take the

Serbian-occupied areas and so forge a Greater Serbia.



In extensive interviews with the BBC for a documentary on the
destruction

of Yugoslavia, Jovic, now vice president of Milosevic's Serbian
Socialist

Party, said that in April 1991, more than two months before war
broke out

in Croatia: "We decided to change tactics. We would deploy
troops in Serb

areas of Croatia, the Croats would provoke war, and we would
then take

those territories."



The same tactics were used in Bosnia, where war broke out in
April 1992.



"We knew that when Bosnia was recognized, we'd be seen as
aggressors

because our army was there," Jovic said. "So Milosevic and I
talked it

over, and we realized we'd have to pull a fast one. We
transferred all the

Bosnian Serbs in our Yugoslav army to their forces and promised
to pay all

their costs." Thus was an extremely well-armed Bosnian Serb force

created.



The results, in the end, have been disappointing. The war in
Croatia has

effectively been lost and the war in Bosnia is going against the
Serbs.

Serbia lies in economic ruin and hundreds of thousands of Serbs
are

refugees. Moreover, because Milosevic has resorted to irregular
forces to

disguise his hand in the wars, Arkan and other paramilitary
groups have

been given a freer hand.



"Any assessment of Milosevic must conclude that he has been
immensely

destructive, to his own people and to others," said Zarko Korac,
an

opposition politician. "The world now wants to see him as a
pragmatist,

but it is destructiveness that, up to now, seems to distinguish
him."



The Serbian president is also a survivor. His overwhelming
control of the

police and press has insured that, as has his ability to
convince foreign

diplomats that he constitutes the ineluctable road to peace.



"He's so easy to deal with compared to the Bosnian government,"
said one

American official. "He's charming and decisive. Sometimes we
have to

remind ourselves that with Milosevic we are dealing with a
compliant

dictator, whereas in Bosnia we are dealing with a muddled,
fledgling

democracy."



========================================================



	HOUSE WARNS CLINTON ON BOSNIA TROOP ROLE



		The resolution states that the administration should

	not presume before peace talks begin that enforcement of a peace

	settlement will involve American ground troops. It also states

	that American ground troops should be deployed in Bosnia to

	enforce a peace agreement only after Congress approves the

	mission.



NYTimes October 31st



HOUSE WARNS CLINTON ON BOSNIA TROOP ROLE

By ELAINE SCIOLINO



WASHINGTON - Two days before peace talks on Bosnia open in
Dayton, the

Clinton administration on Monday found itself fighting an
unwelcome

political brush fire in the House, which passed a resolution
stating that

the United States should not send, or even pledge, American
peacekeepers

without permission from Congress.



The vote was 315 to 103, more than the two-thirds majority
needed to pass

the resolution according to the rules under which it was raised.



Although the resolution has no legal effect, but rather
expressed a

"sense of the House," it was a measure of the depth of
congressional

opposition, particularly among Republicans, to the possible
deployment of

20,000 American ground troops.



"This is Afghanistan with trees," said Rep. Randy (Duke)
Cunningham, a

California Republican, likening any American troop deployment in
Bosnia to

the Soviet Union's long war in Afghanistan.



Rep. Toby Roth, a Wisconsin Republican, concurred, saying: "It
is easy to

get involved in a war, but it's very difficult to extricate
yourself."



Many House Democrats who spoke during the 40-minute debate did
not argue

either in favor of or against the dispatch of American troops to
police a

peace in Bosnia. Rather, many opposed the measure because they
said it

could jeopardize sensitive talks involving the Presidents of
Bosnia,

Croatia and Serbia that are to open at Wright-Patterson Air
Force Base in

Ohio on Wednesday.



"This is a historic opportunity to bring an end to this
bloodshed," said

Rep. David E. Bonior, a Michigan Democrat. "We should retract
this

resolution because it sends the wrong message at the wrong
time." Rep.

Lee H. Hamilton, an Indiana Democrat who is a strong defender of
the right

of the president to make and execute foreign policy, said that
the measure

raised "very grave constitutional issues" and would "prevent the

president from acting as commander-in-chief."



Both the White House and State Department on Monday strongly
criticized

the resolution as damaging prospects for ending the war.



Secretary of State Warren Christopher, who was on the way back
from Amman,

Jordan, sent a letter to Rep. Newt Gingrich, the speaker of the
House,

urging him not to hold the vote.



"This resolution on the eve of proximity talks could be damaging
to a

successful outcome of the peace negotiations," the letter said,
adding

that the measure was so ill-timed that it could damage "the
national

interest" of the United States.



In a briefing with reporters on Monday, Richard Holbrooke, the
chief

American negotiator on Bosnia, used even stronger language,
saying that it

"grievously interferes with the negotiating processes of peace."
He

added: "Any member of the Congress who supports that kind of
resolution

on the eve of an historic and important negotiation is doing
grave damage

to the national interests."



But Gingrich bristled at the suggestions that, by allowing the
resolution

to be debated and voted on, he was somehow putting American
national

interests in jeopardy.



Gingrich, appearing with Sen. Bob Dole, the majority leader, told

reporters: "It would be nice if the president told us what he
intended to

do and asked our advice before he did it."



Dole concurred, saying: "The president ought to persuade you, the

American people."



In a sign of the deep ill-will between Gingrich and the
administration

these days, both Christopher and Anthony Lake, the national
security

adviser, were unsuccessful in trying to discuss the matter with
Gingrich

by telephone.



Gingrich did not return Lake's call from last Friday, a White
House

official said.



Nonetheless, the State Department tried to put the best face on
why

Christopher and Gingrich did not talk. "The speaker has always
been

responsive to the secretary's calls," said the State Department

spokesman, noting that Christopher was traveling. "I can only
imagine it

was impossible to connect today."



The resolution cosponsored by two Persian Gulf war veterans,
Rep. Steve

Buyer, a freshman Republican from Indiana, and Paul McHale,
Democrat of

Pennsylvania, states that the administration should not presume
before

peace talks begin that enforcement of a peace settlement will
involve

American ground troops. It also states that American ground
troops should

be deployed in Bosnia to enforce a peace agreement only after
Congress

approves the mission.



The three parties - the Bosnian government, the Croats, and the
Serbs -

have made clear that they will not make peace unless the United
States

commits troops to help NATO police a peace settlement. President
Clinton

has already pledged to the parties and the NATO allies that the
United

States will send troops as part of a peace enforcement force.



Monday's debate illustrated the depth of congressional unease
over

involving American troops in a peacekeeping mission,
particularly since

there is no peace at this point.



Some Democrats who opposed the resolution nevertheless vowed
that Congress

must be involved in consultations with the administration
throughout the

process. "If Congress is going to be there at the crash landing,
Congress

should be there at the takeoff," said Rep. Steny H. Hoyer, a
Maryland

Democrat. Still, Hoyer called the resolution "not timely."



c.1995 N.Y. Times News Service





================================================================

TODAY'S ISSUES==> TOPIC: MILITARY & ARMS      Ref: CE^N1443 Date: 10/31/95
From: STEVE SCHULTZ (Leader)                                Time: 07:24pm
/\To: ALL                                                 (Read 10 times)
Subj: N.A.T.O. SECRETARY GENERAL UPDATE

French President Jacques Chirac and British Prime Minister John Major
yesterday endorsed former Dutch Prime Minister Ruud Lubbers as the next
Secretary General. Lubbers, a 56-year-old Christian Democrat, also
reportedly has the backing of German Chancellor Helmut Kohl. The
Netherlands has not yet formally named Lubbers as a candidate. (N.Y.T.)

=================================================================

TODAY'S ISSUES==> TOPIC: MILITARY & ARMS      Ref: CE^N2736 Date: 10/31/95
From: STEVE SCHULTZ (Leader)                                Time: 07:45pm
\/To: ALL                                                 (Read 8 times)
Subj: BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA UPDATE

In a completed inquiry announced yesteday, Dutch Defense Minister Joris
Voorhoeve said that the group of Dutch peacekeepers entrusted with
policing Srebrenica could not have prevented the town from falling and
becoming the site of a massacre. While acknowledging mistakes, Voorhoeve
said the larger blame belongs to the United Nations and N.A.T.O., which
created the area and then abandoned it. About 5,000 Muslims civilians are
missing, many are suspected dead.

In the 22 page letter to the Dutch Parliament, Voorhoeve said that at key
points, the United Nations was too reluctant to use force against Bosnian
Serbs. With the letter was a 100 page report and five appendices based on
interviews with 460 members of the Dutch force that was there. The
interviews lasted an average of four hours each for thousands of pages of
transcripts. The report says, as to comments that the Dutch should have
summoned foreign monitors and not allowed any refugees to be removed, that
that "would have been not only suicidal, it would have led to an enormous
bloodbath for the civilians there." Voorhoeve criticized senior officers
for saying soon after that they saw no evidence of genocide and that the
Bosnian Serbs conduct was "militarily correct." A statement by a Dutch
officer certifying that the "evacuation was carried out by the Serb side
correctly" was declared by Voorhoeve as null, void, and incorrect. The
report also acknowledged that the unit was not always tight, and some
soldiers refused orders. The report also presents evidence of rapes,
killings and other violence in Srebrenica and Potocari, including pyres
and bodies on the sides of roads.

The U.S. House of Representatives passed, 315 to 103, a non-binding
resolution yesterday stating that the United States should not send or
pledge U.S. peacekeepers without Congressional authorization.

With 77 percent of votes counted, Croatian President Franjo Tudjman's
party had 43.6 percent of the vote, less than the huge majority expected.
(Reuters, Stephen Kinzer, and Elaine Sciolino/N.Y.T.)

================================================================


===========================================================

OMRI DAILY DIGEST 

31 October 1995



CROATIA'S GOVERNING PARTY WINS ELECTIONS. With nearly 80% of

the ballots counted, President Franjo Tudjman's Croatian
Democratic

Union (HDZ) has retained its parliamentary majority, Croatian
media

reported on 30 October. The HDZ secured some 44% of the vote and
is

thus likely to have between 71 and 75 of the 128 parliamentary

seats, including 12 alloted to Croatian voters abroad. But the
failure

to win a two-thirds parliamentary majority means that Tudjman
will

be unable to introduce constitutional changes granting the

presidency wider powers. Support for the HDZ seems to have waned

most in the capital. Hina on 30 October reported that the HDZ
won a

majority of votes for the Zagreb City Assembly in only three of
the

city's 17 constituencies, gaining 36.55% of the vote. In the 1993

elections, the HDZ had the support of nearly 43% of voters in
Zagreb.

* Stan Markotich





U.S. HOUSE VOTES AGAINST SENDING TROOPS TO BOSNIA. The US

House of Representatives on 30 October voted 315 to 103 in favor
of

a non-binding resolution espressing opposition to the sending of
U.S.

troops to Bosnia without the consent of Congress, AFP reported
the

same day. The resolution states that "in the negotiation of any
peace

agreement between the parties to the conflict in the Republic of

Bosnia and Herzegovina, there should not be a presumption, and it

should not be considered to be a prerequisite to the successful

conclusion of such a negotiation, that the enforcement of such an

agreement will involve deployment of United States Armed
Forces...."

Reuters on 31 October cites unnamed U.S. officials as saying
that the

three delegations scheduled to meet in Ohio on 1 November will
"not

agree to peace...if U.S. troops will not help other NATO members
to

enforce it." Chief mediator and U.S. Assistant Secretary of State

Richard Holbrooke added that the resolution may "weaken the

negotiations." * Stan Markotich



BOSNIAN PRESIDENT REJECTS DIVISION OF BOSNIA. Alija Izetbegovic

has said he is going to the Ohio talks with "moderate optimism."
He

stressed his delegation will reject a partition of
Bosnia-Herzegovina,

Reuters reported on 30 October. He also insisted on a united
Sarajevo

and adequate international forces to ensure the peace process.
Aid

for reconstruction must be tied to human rights, Izetbegovic
argued.

Holbrooke pointed out that it "is going to be very, very hard to
reach

a peace agreement." Serbian President Milosevic, representing the

Bosnian Serbs, Croatian President Tudjman, and Izetbegovic will

discuss a peace agreement in the presence of representatives of
the

Contact Group. * Fabian Schmidt



EU FOREIGN MINISTERS AGREE ON RECONSTRUCTION PLAN FOR

FORMER YUGOSLAVIA. The foreign ministers of the EU have agreed

to provide $2 billion in reconstruction aid for the former
Yugoslavia.

At a meeting in Luxembourg on 30 October, they adopted a policy

paper stating that Bosnia-Herzegovina should remain a single
state in

its internationally recognized borders and should be composed of
two

entities-the Muslim-Croatian federation and the Republic of
Srpska,

Reuters reported the same day. The policy paper also stressed the

need for a multi-ethnic society based on the rule of law and with

respect for human rights. Aid approval is dependent on an

agreement being reached in Ohio. The EU expects the U.S. and the

Islamic countries to pay another $2 billion each. * Fabian
Schmidt



FIRST CIVILIAN CONVOY IN MORE THAN THREE YEARS REACHES

GORAZDE. The first civilian convoy arrived safely in Gorazde on
30

October, international media reported. The convoy was carrying

humanitarian aid. Another civilian convoy is scheduled to run on
1

November. Until now, only UN convoys were able to reach the

enclave ocassionally. Meanwhile, the Bosnian government and the

Bosnian Serbs have exchanged more than 500 civilian and military

prisoners in Koprivna, near Sanski Most, Reuters reported on 30

October. According to the Financial Times on 30 October, the UN

reported shelling by Bosnian Serbs near Dubrovnik. * Fabian

Schmidt



BULGARIAN  BUSINESS GROUP LINKED TO ATTEMPT ON GLIGOROV'S

LIFE. The Greek newspaper Thessaloniki on 30 October published an

article alleging that the Bulgarian Multigrup business
conglomerate

was behind the attempt to kill Macedonian President Kiro
Gligorov on

3 October. An article by Spyros Kouzinopoulos, director of the
Greek

Macedonian Information Agency, says Multigrup is "linked to the

mafia and enriches itself through illegal trade with Serbia and

[Macedonia] in violation of the embargo against rump Yugoslavia."

Macedonian media have also pointed to Multigrup as possibly

carrying out the bomb attack. Multigrup Chief Secretary Boyko

Draganov said the company will take those responsible for the
article

to court, 24 chasa reported on 31 October. * Stefan Krause





================================================================



OMRI DAILY DIGEST

No. 213, 1 November 1995



FINAL RESULTS OF CROATIAN ELECTIONS. Reuters on 31 October
reported that

the Croatian Electoral Commission had announced that with nearly
all the

ballots counted from the 29 October elections, the governing
Croatian

Democratic Union won with about 44.8% of the votes. It was
followed by

the five-party coalition led by the Peasant Party with 18.4% and
the

opposition Social Liberals with 11.6%. AFP on 31 October
reported that

observers of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in
Europe

(OSCE) were among those who pointed out polling irregularities.

According to a statement issued by the observers, voters were
"not

always guaranteed" a secret ballot and "numerous bulletins were
filled

in publicly." The observers added, however, that "the atmosphere
was

positive in general." * Stan Markotich



SERBIAN PRESIDENT VOICES "OPTIMISM" ON PEACE TALKS . . . Nasa
Borba on 1

November reported that Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic the
previous

day declared his "optimism" as he left for the U.S. to attend
peace

talks slated to open on 1 November in Ohio. Also attending the
talks

will be Croatian President Franjo Tudjman and Bosnian President
Alija

Izetbegovic. Representatives from the U.S., the EU, and Russia
will

mediate. "Our aim is peace," Milosevic said. AFP quoted the
Serbian

president as saying that "We are all hoping . . . that a fair and

lasting peace will finally be established. . . . It will be
lasting and

fair in so far as the peace accord will protect in an equitable
fashion

the interests of the [Serbian, Croatian, and Moslem] peoples and
all the

citizens of Bosnia-Herzegovina." The Serbian delegation also
includes

Bosnian Serbs-notably Momcilo Krajisnik, the speaker of the
Bosnian Serb

assembly-who continue to advocate the partitioning of Bosnia-

Herzegovina. * Stan Markotich



. . . WHILE CROATIAN PRESIDENT SAYS HE IS "HOPEFUL." As he left
for the

Ohio talks, Franjo Tudjman remarked he was "hopeful" a peace
deal could

be hammered out that would lead to a stable peace in the
war-torn former

Yugoslavia, AFP reported on 31 October. He further noted that
"it is

difficult to say that something is certain . . . after all the

conferences we have had since 1990." It is expected that Tudjman
will

not stay for the duration of the talks, and that Foreign
Minister Mate

Granic will take over as chief Croatian negotiator. * Stan
Markotich



EXPULSION OF MUSLIMS CONTINUE IN NORTHWESTERN BOSNIA. According
to the

UNHCR, Bosnian Serbs are continuing to expel Muslims from the
Banja Luka

region. A UN spokesman quoted local police as saying the Muslims
had "no

right" to demand protection. Meanwhile Bosnian Prime Minister
Muhamed

Sacirbey demanded that the UN Security Council launch an
investigation

into the fall of Srebrenica in July. He added that the peace
talks will

not succeed unless the council insists on investigating "ethnic

cleansing" around Banja Luka, Reuters reported on 31 October.
Sacirbey

also accused Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic of ultimate

responsibility for the slaughter of thousands of people after
the fall

of Srebrenica. He commented that he should not be a party in the
Ohio

peace talks. * Fabian Schmidt



SLAVONIAN SERBS REJECT US-UN PROPOSED DRAFT AGREEMENT. The
self-declared

ethnic Serbian Assembly of the Srem-Baranja Region on 31 October

approved the refusal by their negotiator Milan Milanovic to a
draft

agreement, proposed by UN negotiator Thorvald Stoltenberg and
U.S.

Ambassador Peter Galbraith. The accord would have put eastern
Slavonia

under UN control for two years. Milanovic demanded a period of
five

years, while Croatia has said it will accept 12 months, AFP
reported the

same day. * Fabian Schmidt



CROATIA THREATENS TO STRIKE BACK. Croatian Foreign Minister Mate
Granic

has threatened that Croatian forces will strike back if the
Bosnian

Serbs attack Dubrovnik again. Referring to an alleged attack on
29

October, Granic is quoted by Reuters on 31 October as saying that

"similar attacks will not be tolerated." The Bosnian Serbs deny
the

charges and accuse the Croatian army of launching the attack on
the

weekend. Meanwhile, the UN said it plans to withdraw 6,000-8,500
of the

18,000-strong contingent as a cost-cutting measure and in
expectation of

60,000 NATO troops arriving after a peace settlement, AFP
reported.

* Fabian Schmidt



ALBANIA WANTS KOSOVO INCLUDED IN PEACE TALKS. Albanian Deputy
Foreign

Minister Arian Starova, during a visit to Greece, repeated calls
that

Kosovo be included in U.S. efforts to forge a comprehensive peace

agreement for the Balkans. Reuters on 31 October quoted Starova
as

saying that "they cannot ignore Kosovo and they should address
this

issue by putting it on the agenda." * Fabian Schmidt



Compiled by Jan Cleave





==========================================================================
BOSNIA HAS PITFALLS APLENTY FOR U.S. FORCE

By William Matthews
Army Times
October 30, 1995

   WASHINGTON - If U.S. troops are sent to Bosnia, they will face a host 
of dangers, from gun-toting farmers and unmarked minefields to treacherous 
roads and menacing bands of local "irregular" troops.
   
   American forces will go expecting to be attacked. And no one will be 
surprised if some Americans are killed.

   "This will not be without risks. It will not be without costs," 
Defense Secretary William Perry told the Senate Armed Services Committee 
Oct. 17. U.S. forces "could very well suffer casualties," added Gen.
John Shahkashvili, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
   
   Even though U.S. troops will not go to Bosnia until there is a signed 
peace agreement, military planners here are aware that the 20,000 
Americans they are preparing to contribute to a "peace implementation 
force" will face a wide range of dangers.
   
   The most serious threat may come from renegade "paramilitary troops 
who won't welcome the peace process or U.S. presence" in Bosnia, Perry 
said during a Senate hearing.

Prepared for anything

   U.S. troops must be prepared for bombings, terrorist attacks and other 
assaults by these groups, be said.
   
   Ironically, the threat to American troops may be greater from the 
Bosnian government side -- the side the United States has helped most -- 
than from the Bosnian Serbs, according to an official involved in 
operation planning. The Muslim-led Bosnian government, he said, has less 
control over its troops than do the Bosnian Serbs.
   
   To counter the menace of renegade Bosnian military units, American 
troops will operate under "robust rules of engagement," Shalikashvili 
promised. The rules will permit the use of deadly force in response to 
hostile action or hostile intent, he said.
   
   They will be similar to the rules used in Haiti that permitted a small 
group of Marines at Cap-Haitien to shoot and kill nine Haitian police who 
emerged from a police headquarters and threatened them with weapons, he 
said.

'Meanest dog in town'

   In addition to aggressive rules of engagement, the United States is 
planning to send a formidable force to Bosnia.
   
   "I prefer to go in very heavy," Shalikashvili said. He is planning to 
send a mechanized division, which would include M-1 tanks, Bradley 
fighting vehicles, attack helicopters and artillery as well as infantry
troops.

   The U.S. force "will be the biggest, toughest, meanest dog in town," 
Perry said. "If attacked by anyone, they will bring a large hammer down 
on them quickly."
   
   The yearlong operation is expected to cost $1.5 billion.
   
   In addition to rogue Bosnian troops, U.S. forces will have to be wary 
of the heavily armed Bosnian population.
   
   Shalikashvili said U.S. forces will not attempt to disarm the Bosnian 
people. To do so "would not be fruitful and would be needlessly 
dangerous," he said. The United States may offer to buy weapons and 
will seize any arms caches it finds, he said.

Land mines a major threat
   
   Land mines will pose another threat to American troops. Mines have 
been laid "all over the place" in Bosnia and at least a third of the mine 
fields are believed to be unmarked, said an official involved in planning 
the Bosnia operation.
   
   Auto accidents will be another danger confronting the Americans. 
Bosnian terrain is mountainous, and the roads are narrow and primitive, 
often lacking retaining walls.
   
   Weather may present another problem. The frigid, snowy winters are so 
severe that fighting came   to a virtual halt last winter. Winter would 
complicate a U.S. troop deployment, Shalikashvili conceded. But, he said, 
"we are not a fair-weather force."
   
   A pitfall U.S. officials are determined to avoid in Bosnia is "mission 
creep," Shalikashvili said. The harsh lessons from Somalia are still fresh
in mind. There, U.S. troops were killed when their mission expanded from
ending starvation to hunting down a warlord.

   To prevent mission creep, Shalikashvili declared that U.S. troops will 
not stay in Bosnia for more than a year, and they will not take on tasks 
such as repairing war damage or resettling refugees.
   
   Most importantly, troops in the peace implementation force will not 
participate in arming or training Bosnian government forces, even though 
the United States has pledged to do so, Perry said, adding that the job 
may be left to civilian contractors.

Skepticism on the Hill
   
   Perry's plans for Bosnia were greeted by general skepticism on Capitol 
Hill, where Repubhcans and Democrats challenged the need for greater U.S. 
involvement and questioned whether peace in the Balkans is possible.
   
   The Bosnian people "would rather dig fresh graves than bury old
hatreds," said SSen. William S. Cohen (R-Maine).
                            
   But Perry and Secretary of State Warren Christopher insisted that peace 
is possible, though only through U.S. leadership and last winter. Winter 
would complicate a U.S. military intervention.

   "We are in a position where either the United States will lead and we 
will have an opportunity for peace, or the United States will stand back 
and the situation will fall apart," Christopher said.
 
   Either way, U.S. troops will end up in Bosnia. If peace efforts fail, 
U.S. troops will have to deploy to Bosnia to rescue United Nations 
peacekeeping troops from the ensuing war, he said.

==========================================================================
SPECIALISTS WILL BE TARGETED FOR BOSNIA MISSION

By William Mattews
Army Times
October 30, 1995
    
   WASHINGTON - Reserve troops who load and unload ships and cargo planes, 
provide medical care, purify water, build barracks and briges and speak 
Serbo-Croatian are among those most likely to be ordered to active duty 
for a U.S.-led peace implementation operation in Bonia.
    
   The Defense Department plans to order 2,000 to 3,000 to active duty as 
part of the force of 20,000 troops it is preparing to send to Bosnia to 
keep warring Bosnian Serbs and Bosnian government forces apart.
    
   Gen. John Shalikashvili, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told 
Congress that President Clinton will issue a call-up for a variety of 
combat support and combat service support troops for the operation. He 
said troops who move cargo through seaports and airports will be in 
particular demand.

Army Reserve targeted
    
   Officials at the Pentagon said force planners have not identified
specific reserve units that will be ordered to active duty, but many
are expected to come from the Army Reserve.
    
   Under revised call-up authority Congress approved last year, the
president can order reserve troops to active duty for an initial period
of 270 days. Congressional approval is needed to extend call-ups beyond 
that period.
    
   Defense Secretary William Perry said he plans to send U.S. troops to 
Bosnia for a year -- three months longer than the call-up period.
    
   For several years, the military has relied on reservists who have
served voluntarily, chiefly from the Air Force Reserve and the Air
National Guard, to enforce a noflight zone over Bosnia and deliver relief 
supphes to Sarajevo and other areas.

Need is for specialists

   But if the United States sends 20,000 ground troops into Bosnia, the 
Defense Department cannot continue to rely solely on reserve volunteers, 
officials said.
      
   "If we asked for 3,000 volunteers, we would probably get 5,000, but 
they may not be in the specialties we need," a reserve official said. 
But by ordering troops to active duty, the military can be of getting full 
units of the types of troops it needs.
      
   A call-up also assures the military access to troops for an operation 
that may not be very popular, a congressional aide said. "Who the hell 
wants to go to Bosnia in the dead of winter?" he asked
      
   Republicans and Democrats alike question what vital interests require 
the United States to risk the lives of troops in the Balkans.

   There is also concern that reserve troops who have been tapped 
repeatedly for operations in Somalia, Haiti, Rwanda, Guantanamo Bay, Cuba
and elsewhere may be unenthusiastic about volunteering for duty in
Bosnia, the aide said.

   According to Pentagon sources, however, many of the reserve troops
ordered to active duty may not go to Bosnia.

   Reserve medical personnel may be ordered to active duty in hospitals in
the United States or Germany to fill in for active-duty medical troops
dispatched to Bosnia. Security troops may be assigned to bases in Italy.
Cargo handling units may work from U.S. ports and air bases.

   But if reserve translators, engineers, psychological operations troops,
intelligence analysts, equipment maintenance specialists and water 
purification personnel are called, it is likely to be for duty in Bosnia.

=====================================================================

TODAY'S ISSUES==> TOPIC: MILITARY & ARMS      Ref: CF1I0377 Date: 11/01/95
From: STEVE SCHULTZ (Leader)                                Time: 02:06pm
\/To: ALL                                                 (Read 11 times)
Subj: BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA UPDATE

Bosnian Serbs handed over 300 male Muslim civilians on Monday in exchange
for 150 Serbian P.O.W.s. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Human
Rights John Shattuck said that he had won committments from Bosnian Serb
leaders for information about and access to Muslim detainees as well. The
I.C.R.C. said in Geneva, Switzerland, yesterday that its representatives
gained access late last week to one prison in Banja Luka after being kept
out for six months. The exchange occurred near Sanski Most.

The vice president of the self-declared Bosnian Serb republic, Nikola
Koljevic, also gave Shattuck information on unaccounted Muslim men. He
said about 400 were near Banja Luka and about 1,000 in the northwest. Some
are detained, some are performing labor, and some are wandering homeless.
(Jane Perlez/N.Y.T.)

=========================================================================

TODAY'S ISSUES==> TOPIC: MILITARY & ARMS      Ref: CF2L2188 Date: 11/02/95
From: STEVE SCHULTZ (Leader)                                Time: 05:36pm
\/To: ALL                                                 (Read 16 times)
Subj: BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA UPDATE

In meetings yesterday at Wright-Patterson A.F.B., Ohio, Serbian President
Slobodan Milosevic and Croatian President Franjo Tudjman agreed on a joint
statement. They declared their willingness to work toward full
normalization of relations, including human rights and returning refugees,
as well as peaceful resolution of the eastern Slavonia conflict. Bosnian
President Alija Izetbegovic is also attending.

About 100 demonstrators gathered outside the Hope Hotel Conference Center
where the meetings took place, to protest Milosevic's presence and to call
for the independence of Kosovo, a province of Serbia populated mainly by
ethnic Albanians.

In Sarajevo, mothers of children killed during the war are planning to
gather at a park everyday while peace talks are being held.

The far-right, stridently nationalist Croatian Party of Rights got 5
percent of the votes for the Croatian Parliament, the minimum needed ti
get seats. Tudjman's party got 42.5 percent, the Peasant Party over 18
percent, and the Social Liberals 12 percent. The formerly communist Social
Democrats had 9 percent. Voting will take place again at 10 stations where
irregularities were alleged. (Reuters and Elaine Sciolino/N.Y.T.)

===================================================================

TODAY'S ISSUES==> TOPIC: MILITARY & ARMS      Ref: CF3P0834 Date: 11/03/95
From: STEVE SCHULTZ (Leader)                                Time: 08:13pm
\/To: ALL                                                 (Read 14 times)
Subj: BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA UPDATE

David Rohde, 28, a report for The Christian Science Monitor, has been
missing since Sunday morning, when he drove into Serb held areas from
Sarajevo. He was attempting to report further on evidence published Aug.
18 on massacres of Muslim men in Srebrenica. He may be held by the Bosnian
Serbs, and the United Nations has been told he is in Pale.

The international tribunal on war crimes in Bosnia has formally asked the
United States to make the surrender of indicted suspects a condtion for
any peace accord. The request was made in a letter from Richard J.
Goldstone, the chief prosecutor, to the U.S. delegate to the United
Nations, Madeleine K. Albright. Also raised in the letter were questions
about whether the United States had turned over all evidence it had
gathered on reported attrocities after the fall of Srebrenica. U.S.
officials say all evidence has been turned over. 43 Bosnian Serbs and
Croats have been indicted. (Stephen Enggelberg and Kit R. Roane/N.Y.T.)

======================================================================

TODAY'S ISSUES==> TOPIC: MILITARY & ARMS      Ref: CF4H0009 Date: 11/04/95
From: STEVE SCHULTZ (Leader)                                Time: 01:00pm
\/To: ALL                                                 (Read 13 times)
Subj: BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA UPDATE

The United States is sending an envoy to the Balkans today to confront the
human rights issues so the three parties at the peace talks at
Wright-Patterson A.F.B., Ohio, can focus on a draft peace agreement,
elections, constitutional issues, and the separation of military forces.
The envoy, John H.F. Shattuck, the top human rights official in the State
Department, went to the meetings in Ohio yesterday to meeting with Serbian
President Slobodan Milosevic and seek his cooperation. He reportedly
promised that the United States, the International Committee of the Red
Cross/Crescent (I.C.R.C.), and the United Nations would have direct access
to sites in Banja Luka, Srebrenica, and Zepa.

Shattuck will also pursue the case of David Rohde, a reporter for The
Christian Science Monitor missing since Sunday. According to the Bosnian
Serb press agency, he was detained in Zvornik on charges that he illegally
crossed the border with false documents. The United States is demanding
his release and immediate consular access to him. Milosevic has said he
will use his influence to help.

At the talks in Ohio, delegates looked at four draft agreements yesterday
presented Thursday by the United States. Today is a recreation day.
Movies, bowling, swimming, and a soccer match are planned. Bosnian Foreign
Minister Muhamed Sacirbey, who attended Tulane University on a football
scholarship, will take a group to Louisville to see his alma mater play
the University of Louisville. (Elaine Sciolino/N.Y.T.)

