			Foreign Correspondent

		      Inside Track On World News
	    By International Syndicated Columnist & Broadcaster
		 Eric Margolis <emargolis@lglobal.com>

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WILL CHINA INVADE TAIWAN?
by
Eric Margolis 29 January 1996

The Chinese are usually subtle diplomats.
Not this week, however. Taiwan seems to bring out the 
worst in the Beijing leadership. Example:
China's latest fortune cookie message to Taiwan:
`An M-9 missile a day keeps independence away!'  

Beijing, say US sources, has told Washington  it is prepared
to launch limited attacks on Taiwan if that nation's  
president,  Lee Teng-hui, wins upcoming elections in March
and continues to promote independence for the island.  

A former senior US defense official, Charles Freeman,  was
quoted by the `New York Times' as saying Chinese officials
had warned him they planned to launch strikes  against
Taiwan by conventional M-9 missile every day for 30 days.  

Far more alarmingly, Freeman also reported Chinese defense
officials said they were convinced the US would take no
action because America's leaders, `care more about Los
Angeles than they do about Taiwan.'  This, according to
Freeman, was an implied threat to use nuclear weapons
against the US.  Chinese officials, claimed Freeman, had
vowed they would `sacrifice millions of men' and `entire
cities' to ensue the unity of China - a sacrifice the US
surely would not make.  Shades of Saddam Hussein!

Is this all bluff and verbal bombast by Beijing designed to
cow the impudent Taiwanese into submission, or is China
really planning some sort of military action?  

Since last summer, China has doubled its land, sea and air
forces in Fujian Province, a mere 150 miles across the
Strait of Formosa from Taiwan. Amphibious forces have been
tripled. China's East Sea and South Sea Fleets are on a high
state of alert.Three western military attaches have been
arrested for `spying' in Fujian, which Beijing has just
declared a `War Zone.' 

China's wobbly communist leadership is worried that Taiwan,
which Beijing brands a `renegade province,' is effectively
slipping out of China's political orbit.  Taiwan's President
Lee has been active in promoting international recognition
for Taiwan, a nation of 21 million industrious citizens with
mammoth gold reserves.  Beijing has long warned any move by
Taiwan to go independent would be crushed by military
action.  

Taiwan is clearly playing a dangerous game.  Taiwanese
businessmen have invested billions in China and want to
avoid political or military conflict. But Taiwan's feisty
democratic government can't resist challenging the feuding,
unstable collective communist leadership in Beijing.  Some
of Taiwan's elite, notably the Old Guard  of the Kumintang
Party, still believe they can regain power in China after
communism collapses.  They smell blood, and want revenge for
Mao's defeat of Marshall Chiang-kai shek  

Each time Taiwan shows independent friskiness,  Beijing
loses big face in Asia.  This undermines the credibility of
the communist regime, emboldens its internal opponents, and
raises China's age-old nemesis, national disintegration. So
Beijing decided to act tough and rattle sabres.

But the method chosen by China's leaders is both ham-handed
and extremely dangerous. The crisis is being played against
a background of growing strategic hostility between the US
and China that has been foolishly fostered by Beijing and
the Clinton Administration, both of whom sought a foreign
diversion from domestic woes.  

China is deeply unwise to challenge the US in the Strait of
Formosa. The last time China did so seriously, during the
1950's, President Eisenhower ordered the powerful 7th Fleet
to destroy any Chinese invasion force headed for Taiwan, or
the smaller Nationalist-held islands, Matsu and Quemoy. 
While Washington has since renounced its `cordon sanitaire'
over the Strait,  a major Chinese assault on Taiwan might
well produce a devastating US military riposte.

China could storm fortified Matsu and Quemoy islands after
heavy fighting.  But a massive invasion of Taiwan would be a
bloodbath. China lacks both long-ranged air cover for an
invasion, and sufficient amphibious capability.  Taiwan has
a powerful army - 1.8 million on full mobilization - and
heavily fortified beaches. Though modest in size and
outdated, its  air force and navy would still have the
advantage of superior training, far more modern technology,
deadly anti-ship missiles, and  fighting close to their
bases.  In spite of huge numbers of men and obsolete
equipment, Chinese invasion forces would still be
slaughtered - particularly if the US 7th Fleet intervened. 
In fact, the Chinese could face the same fate as Saddam
Hussein's pathetically inept armed horde in  Kuwait.

China's best military option is a prolonged submarine
blockade of Taiwan that would bring the island to its knees.
This column, however, understands the US has given  Taiwan
assurances it will defeat any Chinese surface  or submarine
blockade. 

Beijing  could also threaten Taiwan with nuclear attack by
M-9 missile. This raises an interesting question: did Taiwan
managed to build a few nuclear devices over the past decade
with secret Israeli help?  Most experts think not, but it's
still possible  - though Taiwan lacks a delivery system to
hit Beijing.

None of this should be happening.  The normally intelligent
Chinese are acting very foolishly  -  rather like the
foreign barbarians they so disdain. Still, this  column
believes the dispute will probably simmer down after more
huffing a puffing. 

But China is now in a period of growing uncertainty and
political instability, a time when fatal mistakes quickly
and easily occur.  When nations feel their national pride is
threatened, as proud, prickly China now does over Taiwan,
anything can happen. 

copyright Eric Margolis 1996

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