

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE-EMERGENCYNET NEWS SVC.-01/15/92-1200CST

SADDAM HUSSEIN MAKES THREATS,
PROBABILITY OF TERRORISM INCREASES

By Amy Grant, Correspondent

Chicago, IL - The Wednesday bombing of Iraq's air-defense
missiles was a response by the allied coalition to Saddam
Hussein's continued violations of the U.N. sponsored
restrictions.  Hussein's recalcitrant attitude and behavior
have been a continued source of irritation to President
George Bush, ever since the decision was made to withdraw
American forces from Iraq during Operation Desert Storm.
Most analysts, however, do not think that Wednesday's
military retaliation will deter Saddam Hussein from further
provocations and attempts to recoup his overall power in the
region.

According to Clark Staten, of the Chicago-based Emergency
Response & Research Institute, Saddam Hussein's response is
likely to follow the pattern that he has undertaken since the
defeat of his military forces during the Persian Gulf
conflict.  Staten predicts that Hussein will again
continually commit to limited concessions to United Nation's
demands, while secretly continuing his arms build-up, both in
the North and South of Iraq.  Secondarily, the experienced
intelligence analyst says that Hussein will use the latest
allied attack to bolster public support for greater
sacrifices from the Iraqi people and a rebuilt military
capability.

Worse than the possible rebuilding of Iraq's internal
military structure, is the likelihood that Hussein will
attempt to use anti-Israeli and anti-American sentiments in
the Middle East to again fuel Islamic "Holy Wars" against
allied targets.  Evidence of continued terrorist activities
by the Lebanese Hezbollah and other fundamentalist Moslem
groups would suggest that they would need little inducement
by Hussein to take action against American, British, French,
or other coalition allies.  Hezbollah leaders are reportedly
already "outraged" at recent two million dollar reward offers
by the United States for information leading to the
kidnappers of William Higgins, Peter Kilburn, and William
Buckley.  Several intelligence reports point to Hezbollah as
the group that headed operations in the kidnapping of
Americans and Europeans during the 1980's.

"Combine the anger of Hezbollah leader Hussein Musawi, who's
father was recently killed by an Israeli helicopter raid,
with Saddam Hussein's desire to embarrass and intimidate the
United States...and you have the perfect formula for a
terrorist attack against the United States", Staten said.
"It is likely that it will take the form of hostage-taking,
although that isn't the only opportunity for these fanatics",
he continued.  "This possibility is further strengthened by
the fact that Saddam Hussein is almost militarily powerless
to strike against the United States in any meaningful
way...terrorism is a deniable method of Hussein regaining a
covert leadership role in Middle-East politics", Staten
added.

"History teaches us that the taking of American hostages
could be a major test of the resolve of an incoming
Democratic administration...Hussein may reason that
President-elect Clinton may respond in a manner similar to
former President Carter when faced with the Iranian Hostage
incident", he continued.  "By supporting the violent actions
of the Hezbollah or other Islamic fundamentalist groups,
Hussein gains a measure of respect in the eyes of the Moslem
`revolutionary front' as well as to extract an appearance of
revenge against the allied coalition that has destroyed his
army and is pursuing his overthrow", Staten concluded.

Staten, who is the author of the "Emergency Response Guide to
Terrorism" and reported extensively on terrorist activities
during the Persian Gulf War, said that the most likely target
of terrorist opportunity are American and allied targets in
Europe or the Middle East.  He noted that several terror
organizations already have an acknowledged "infrastructure"
in these locations and that an atrocity could be committed in
a timely and effective manner. According to Staten, further
evidence of potential actions by both Saddam Hussein and the
Hezbollah are contained in published threats issued by them
within the past two weeks.

Mr. Staten does not recommend drastic action or gratuitous
fear on the part of Americans at this time, but he does
suggest that a heightened state of awareness and security
might be prudent until the world situation changes.  He did
predict, however, some sort of retaliation or provocation on
the part of Saddam Hussein, on or near the date of the
Clinton inauguration in Washington, DC on January 20th, 1993.
He also strongly suggested additional security measures to
surround the inauguration activities.

                             -30-

(c) EmergencyNet NEWS Service, 1993
Emergency Response & Research Institute
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