The following essay was prepared for an upcoming issue of THE INTELLIGENCER, which is
a newsletter that AFIO, the Association of Former Intelligence Officers, sends out three times
a year to college professors around country who teach courses about intelligence.

AFIO, as its name implies, is an organization of persons who once served in the US Intelligence
Community, military or civilian.  They also accept as associate members anyone with and interest
in intelligence.  In addition to THE INTELLIGENCER, they also publish another monthly
newsletter, THE PERISCOPE, which contains all sorts of info and updates on what is going on
the intelligence world.  

Memberships are $35.  AFIO, 6723 Whittier AVE, Suite 303A, McLean, VA 22101; (703) 790-
0320.

John Macartney
Washington, DC
.......................................................................................................

                    RUMINT and Tidbits on Intelligence
                             by John Macartney

     Most of the information below comes from various conferences, luncheons and symposia
I attended in Washington this fall.  

CUTS.  The Pentagon and the Intelligence Community are taking a disproportionate share of
"reinventing government" cutbacks.  While the civilian work force government-wide is being
reduced 12 percent, the Intelligence Community is being cut at least 25 percent.  The CIA
Directorate of Intelligence is losing 1000 analyst slots, while there are now 2000 imagery analysts
in the Community, half as many as four years ago.

DIRECTION CHANGES.  Compared to when I was in "the business" in the 1980's, there is
much greater effort these days to design intelligence to focus more support on deployed military
forces instead of Washington policymakers.  Also, there is much more decompartmentation
(98% of satellite imagery is now secret, non-codeword), and  efforts are underway to put out
more and more unclassified intelligence products.  (That's related to the "internationalization of
intelligence," the sharing of US intelligence with the UN and other multinational agencies).  Also,
almost everything is electronic now, digital and soft copy.  Furthermore, the Community is moving
away from the old "push" system of distribution that sent hard copy intelligence products, as they
were published, out to the in-baskets of thousands of policymakers and military commanders,
whether they needed them or not.  Under the new "pull" systems, policymakers and commanders
(or their staffs) will "pull" the intelligence they need, when they need it, using, "Intel Link," SCI-
level computer workstations connected to national intelligence data bases.  Also, current
intelligence briefings are now delivered by DIA on closed circuit TV, on what's being called "the
classified CNN."  

OPENNESS.  While CIA has been pushing openness for several years (PR, declassification,
receptivity to journalists, authors, academic researchers, student groups, etc), DIA is now doing
the same.  Why?  The realization that unless there is much greater public and press
understanding of intelligence and what it does, there is a danger it will be drastically cutback, or
abolished altogether, in the aftermath of the Cold War, the Ames case, and the current budget
climate.

INFORMATION WARFARE.  This is shaping up as one of the hottest new buzzwords in
national security circles, and one that has profound implications for intelligence.  To get a feel
for what this "war in cyberspace" is all about, read Alvin & Heidi Toffler, war and anti-war:
Survival at the Dawn of the 21st Century, Little, Brown, 1993.  The defensive  part of
"information war" is a major new counterintelligence responsibility.  Intelligence may also drive
offense (and therefore pull "triggers") in this area but that is still going through a shake-out in the
Pentagon.  A related acronym is RMA, or Revolution in Military Affairs.  This is the idea that
recent developments in sensor and information technologies, coupled with "smart munitions,"
are revolutionizing warfare, much as the invention of gunpowder or the airplane once did. 
Another acronym along these lines is NII, or National Information Infrastructure.  This is a part
of Vice President Al Gore's futuristic vision of a huge government/private on-line communication
and information data base.  The Intelligence Community might be the custodian of this massive
undertaking.  Or just one of it's many users.

COMMISSION ON THE ROLES AND CAPABILITIES OF THE US INTELLIGENCE
COMMUNITY.  The Congressionally mandated, 17-member, bipartisan Commission will be
headed by former Secretary of Defense (and now PFIAB Chairman) Les Aspin and is expected
to be the center of action as far as intelligence policy goes for the next 12 months.  It has hired
a staff and will hold hearings, take testimony and produce documents.  Their final report is due
March 1,1996.  In a number of speeches around Washington in December and January, Aspin
has made clear that he has an open mind and that the Commission will make a "clean sheet"
review of the intelligence function.  Of special interest to AEP professors and AFIO members
is the point he emphasizes about costs.  While most people seem to think post-Cold War
intelligence should cost less, Aspin says, that is not self evident.  He points out that the job of
intelligence, in his view, is to keep policymakers informed about the world, and that the world
today seems to be more complex than it was during the Cold War.  So, he says, the Commission
may find that more intelligence is needed, not less.  Another point he makes: The Commission
needs to develop a better public understanding of what intelligence does and why it is needed. 
Today, he says, that understanding is lacking.  My impressions from hearing Aspin on several
occasions: The Commission is going to be important to the future of intelligence.  Also, with
Aspin it's in good hands.

BOOKS.  Peter Grose's, gentleman spy: The Life of Allen Dulles, Houghton Mifflin, Dec 1994,
is getting wide acclaim.  We understand that both David Wise (author of molehunt) and Pete
Early (author of family of spies) are working on Aldrich Ames books.  Also, Dr. Christopher
Andrews, Cambridge University, has written a new book, for the president's eyes only:
Intelligence and the American Presidency from Washington to Bush; meanwhile, a book on
Japanese intelligence will be out this year by James Hansen, a senior DIA official; John Costello
will have a book on Soviet intelligence penetration of Britain; and CIA turncoat Edward Lee
Howard will tell his tale in safe house.  [Thanks to Elizabeth Bancroft and the latest issue of the
surveillant
for these book tips and many other excellent tidbits.]

JOURNALS & NEWSLETTERS.  For some years, there have been two major academic journals
of intelligence, the international journal of intelligence and counterintelligence, and
intelligence and national security, plus two indispensable newsletters, foreign intelligence
literary scene, or FILS, and, of course, the AFIO newsletter in its two versions, the periscope
for regular members, and this intelligencer, which goes to  AEP enrolled professors, as well
as regular AFIO members. Now, it seems to me, the count is five and three.  The CIA's in-house
journal, studies in intelligence, has been around for many years but was classified secret, and
therefore unavailable to most academics.  For the past three years, however, they have been
publishing at least one unclassified volume per year.  Count that as journal number three
[CIA/CSI, (703) 351-2698.]  The National Military Intelligence Association has published its
american intelligence journal for some 15 years.  While it has always been a solid
publication, editor Roy Yonkers has really upgraded it in the past two or three years.  Count it as
number four [NMIA, (301) 840-6642].  Finally, the defense intelligence journal, which is
associated with DIA's Joint Military Intelligence College, is journal number five [703-790-1428]. 
Meanwhile, the FILS newsletter has been taken over by Heldref Publications which changed its
name (without diminishing its quality) to the world intelligence review, or WIR, [800-365-9753]. 
Finally, a second "newsletter," surveillant, is making its presence known.  Actually, it's the
catalog of the National Intelligence Book Center [202-797-1234].  I find all eight of these
publications indispensable.  

John Macartney
