rona!not-for-mail
Subject: IPS Daily Report - 31 October 95
Date: 31 Oct 1995 23:34:30 -0000


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z OCTOBER 1995 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE REGIONAL WARNING CENTRE (RWC), SYDNEY.
SUMMARY FOR 31 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 NOVEMBER - 03 NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity: Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number : 073/010

GOES satellite data for 30 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.8E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: A1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Nov             02 Nov             03 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected

Forecast 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Nov: 070/005

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field at Learmonth: Quiet to unsettled

Estimated Indices : A   K           Observed A Index 30 Oct      
    Learmonth       11  2132 3333
    Fredericksburg  20                          11
    Planetary       20                          10       

Observed Kp for 30 Oct: 1012 4423
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
DATE      Ap    CONDITIONS
01 Nov    25    Unsettled to active with isolated minor storm levels
                possible 
02 Nov    20    Mostly unsettled. Active levels possible. 
03 Nov    20    Mostly unsettled. Active levels possible. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 27 was issued on 27 October and is
current for interval 31 October to 5 November. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
.            LATITUDE BAND
DATE        LOW            MIDDLE         HIGH 
31 Oct      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : None

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
.            LATITUDE BAND
DATE        LOW            MIDDLE         HIGH 
01 Nov      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
02 Nov      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
03 Nov      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
DATE   T index
31 Oct    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs:
Darwin MUFs were near predicted with 15-30% depressions 15-17 UT.
Townsville MUFs were near predicted with 20-30% enhancements 03-05,
20 UT. Sydney MUFs were near predicted with 30% depressions 15-16 UT;
spread F was observed 12-21 UT and sporadic E 08-12 UT. Sporadic E
obscured the F region at Sydney 22-23 UT. Hobart MUFs were mostly
15-30% depressed with spread F observed 09-15 UT.

Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
DATE   T index  MUFs
01 Nov    -5    Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
                Spread F may degrade night time circuits.
02 Nov    -5    Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
                Spread F may degrade night time circuits.
03 Nov     0    Near predicted monthly values. Spread F may degrade
                night circuits.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 27 October
and is current for interval 31 October to 3 November. 
-- 
IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: rwc@ips.gov.au
PO Box 5606                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/rwc/
West Chatswood NSW 2057 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/rwc/ 
tel: +61 2 4148300                | fax: +61 2 4148331 
