Subject: IPS Daily Report - 26 October 95
Date: 26 Oct 1995 23:17:09 -0000


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z OCTOBER 1995 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE REGIONAL WARNING CENTRE (RWC), SYDNEY.
SUMMARY FOR 26 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity: very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number :  74/11

GOES satellite data for 25 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.6E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: A1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Oct             28 Oct             29 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected

Forecast 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Oct:  75/13
COMMENT: Recurrence suggests high electron fluences are to be
expected during the interval 1-7 November.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field at Learmonth: quiet

Estimated Indices : A   K           Observed A Index 25 Oct      
    Learmonth        4  1111 1222
    Fredericksburg   4                           5
    Planetary        5                           6       

Observed Kp for 25 Oct: 2321 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
DATE      Ap    CONDITIONS
27 Oct    10    Quiet
28 Oct    10    Quiet to unsettled
29 Oct    13    Unsettled
COMMENT: Increased geomagnetic activity expected after 31 October.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
.            LATITUDE BAND
DATE        LOW            MIDDLE         HIGH 
26 Oct      normal         normal         normal         
PCA Event : None

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
.            LATITUDE BAND
DATE        LOW            MIDDLE         HIGH 
27 Oct      normal         normal         fair
28 Oct      normal         normal         fair
29 Oct      normal         normal         fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF comms conditions expected for mid-high 
latitudes after 31 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
DATE   T index
26 Oct     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs:
near predicted monthly values at Townsville, Sydney and
Hobart. Darwin MUFs depressed 30% during interval 05-09UT,
near predicted values at other times. Strong spread F 
was also observed during local night at Darwin. Mild spread F 
observed at Hobart during local night.

Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
DATE   T index  MUFs
27 Oct     5    Near predicted monthly values
28 Oct     5    Near predicted monthly values
29 Oct     5    Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Degraded HF comms conditions expected after 31 October.

-- 
IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: rwc@ips.gov.au
PO Box 5606                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/rwc/
West Chatswood NSW 2057 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/rwc/ 
tel: +61 2 4148300                | fax: +61 2 4148331 
